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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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widespreadsooie

I can't imagine too many Auburn fans liking -9, but then again that's just my guess and it's been wrong plenty of times. For a bit of perspective, maybe, I hung out with a big Auburn fan this past weekend- his gf is a hog. He was taking bets on AUB -6.

Edit: Yes, I do agree though that Vegas is playing games on this line right now and will let important dollars settle it.

SPAL

I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.

 

widespreadsooie

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 17, 2016, 07:03:17 pm
I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.

A lot of close buddies hopped all over the points this morning...not a good sign either haha.

jkstock04

I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys


SPAL

Quote from: jkstock04 on October 17, 2016, 07:26:50 pm
I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.

Yeah, me too. If I play them, it's a sure loss.

onebadrubi

Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 17, 2016, 09:16:56 pm
Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick

If true, be thankful you did not get that info or act on it.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

onebadrubi

Quote from: hogsanity on October 18, 2016, 08:05:59 am
If true, be thankful you did not get that info or act on it.

Why not?  The dude is a loser. We want his plays to fade him.  Look at all the plays I've posted, maybe 8-9 and I think he's won 2?  Lol

WooPig90

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 17, 2016, 09:16:56 pm
Was just told Lang is on jets +7 huge. If anyone else has his plays available before kick off help me out. My buddy "forgot" to text me the play but said it was released before kick

Lol wow this guy is definitely fade material. I got talked into taking the under and cards -7. Glad I did!

WooPig90

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on October 17, 2016, 07:03:17 pm
I think the public is hammering Arkansas(maybe 80%) but the line either hasn't moved or swung the other way. What does that tell you?  Hogville won't like this, bit this isn't the slam dunk they think it is.

Auburn is elite , yes elite, up front. Maybe just slightly below bama. We struggle there. Plus, they run well....we've struggled there.

Up to +10 in my book now. I ended up taking the Hogs +10 vs Tcu and got the Hogs +10 vs ole miss 30 mins before kickoff

onebadrubi

Quote from: jkstock04 on October 17, 2016, 07:26:50 pm
I don't care if the line is +20. I'm done betting Hog games this year. I think I'm 0-4 on the year anytime I've touched them or the total.

The 4 they didn't cover are La tech, A&M, Bama, and Alcorn st correct?  Alcorn st was way to high of a line to bet.  I was on the other 3 with you but also took all the other games ATS and ML TCU and Ole Miss so that helps. 

If you are going to bet the hogs, pick a small amount and just flat bet them every game.  It has proven under Bielema to make money, however I lay off the Alcorn st type games with those astronomical lines.  I will make my before season determined wager size on Arkansas at Auburn this weekend when I feel I can get the best line (my head is spinning on the line though at this point).  I may or may not play the ML though. 

onebadrubi


 

hogsanity

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 18, 2016, 08:47:51 am
Why not?  The dude is a loser. We want his plays to fade him.  Look at all the plays I've posted, maybe 8-9 and I think he's won 2?  Lol

sorry, did not think about that, just that he was on the jets but you didn't find out in time. No one in their right mind would have bet the jets even at +7 on the road in AZ.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

DadVader1

Here is what I've done so far (2 units each on):

Miami(OH) +5.5
Houston -21
Akron +3.5
Conn +3.5
Tex +3
BYU +7.5
GA So -13.5
Miami (FL) +7 (h)
Ore +3
Buff +21.5
NC -7.5
Miss St. -2.5

DadVader1

Hogs +10 smells like a trap, but it falls into some pretty nice trends that favor the Hogs. 

hogsanity

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 19, 2016, 09:42:49 am
Hogs +10 smells like a trap, but it falls into some pretty nice trends that favor the Hogs. 

I dont play Hog games because it changes how I watch them. The 17th ranked team is a 10pt dog to a lower ranked team, even though it is on the road, looks like something to avoid regardless of who it is.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

WooPig90


onebadrubi

Lang is on Blue Jays runline today for 20 dimes.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

One of the more interesting trends that I ran across has hit so far at 27-3 and is also a subset of a trend hitting at 72% with 78 occurrences.  This week, it likes:

BYU +7
Ore +3
Miss St. -3
GA So -14
Buff +21.5
NC -8.5

I'm not advocating that anyone play these.  I mainly wanted to post them so you can see if the trend holds up.  A LOT of the trends that I think I find turn out to be garbage.  Hoping this one pans out.

widespreadsooie


ChicoHog

I jumped on the Hogs +9.5 plus played the money line at +290. 

hogsanity

Troy -8
Cal -3
UCF -3
TX +2.5
Ohio -3
Col +2
Tulsa -11
Hou -21
Ole Miss +6
Mizzu/mtsu un 70.5
msu/ky ov 53
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

 

onebadrubi

Lang on south Alabama +9 and free pick is Cubs ML. His cfb play is a 40 dimer

DadVader1

Added 2 units each on:

Troy -7 (got it early in the week)
Syr +5

Green_Lanternn

Va Tech -5
Va Tech -3 (1h)
Va Tech/Miami Under 53
Va Tech/Miami under 27.5 (1h)
Byu +7.5 vs Boise state
Packers -7.5 vs Bears
Troy -9.5 vs south alabama

Spikes

Public all on the Packers, Troy, Miami and BYU. Not much line movement.

Took the Bears, VT, and South A  so far.  May look into B Stste for the late game. 
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

WILL CLINTON

I missed posting my 10/8 weekend because it was atrocious at 3-7-1 for 30%. Funny thing is though, my leans for that week hit 9-5-1 for 64%. For 10/15 weekend, I was a returned onside kick for a TD away from being a winner to finish 6-7 for 46%. Again, my leans out performed my picks going 8-7 for 53%. Gotta start paying trusting my leans a bit more.

10/8 Weekend:

Iowa +2.5...W
Bowling Green +13...W
UNLV +16...L
ULM -3...L
UNC +2...L
Northern Illinois +18...W
TAMU -7...Push
Buffalo +3...L
UCLA -8...L
Stanford -7...L
BC +19...L

2016 Record 29-36 45% Bankroll: $786

10/15 Weekend:

Ball St -10.5(hook)...W
Miami -7...L
Nebraska -3...W
Wake Forest +23...W
Mizzou v Florida u52...L
Charlotte +5...L
South Florida -20...L
Ohio State -11...L
Fresno St +17...W
UCF -3.5...L
New Mexico +14...W
Texas Tech +3...L
WMU -13...W

2016 Record: 35-43 45% Bankroll: $747

2 losing weeks after 3 up weeks. According to my sequence, I'm due for 3 winning weekends. Maybe I can pull one out this weekend. I can't wait until bowl season.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

onebadrubi

Lang is on over of USF and Temple 59.5 for 40 dimes.  Sucker won both his 40 dimer and free play last night, that makes it a winning streak for him so far.  He is planning a huge chase this weekend and upping his bets drastically after the weekend, if betting units that usually works out good for fading,.

hogsanity

My plays this weekend

cal -2
wisc -4.5
ucf-4
okist/ks ov 61
ind/nw ov 53
nc -11
mem -3
hou -21
latech -17
ou -14
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Spikes

Public pounded USF tonight and they are on Cal..   Reverse line movement on Temple and Oregon ..

Didn't get the bet in on Temple.   5units on the Ducks.  Will post the plays later tonight for tomorrow if i have time.  These reserve line games usually produce around 10-15 a week
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Spikes

U Mass +21
Miami  Ohio +2
Louisville -19.5
Rutgers +19
Indiana +2.5
BAMA -17.5
MEMPHIS +1.5
TULANE +10.5
CHARLOTTE +10
AUBURN-10
SMU +21
NEW MEXICO STATE +14
ASU-8

All of these games are big % of the public on one team, but the line is moving in other directions.   

I just starting following this trend.  Was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and this old man said this is how he bets for a long time.. Said he chases the big money. 

The record for the past 2 week is 18-8.  Would just watch tomorrow and see how it works out.  Will look into the NFL and post as well.  I will be betting these games around $25-$30 starting out.  IF they start hitting I may add more on the later games. 

Good luck team
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

widespreadsooie


SPAL


BigSexyHog

Lebron raised money for kids... Rotnei stole crap from the equipment room

Spikes

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 21, 2016, 08:40:00 pm
Above strategy is old

Most of the games above have 60% or higher being bet on one side, but the line is moving in the other directions.  Just typical reverse line movement .  Have watched it a for the past few years, just never put much interest into until the old guy was betting it the same in Vegas.   It's 5-1 this week so far
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

ChicoHog


Tonight took Cal money line +120

Hogs +10 Still don't get why this line is so high.  I think public is over evaluating Auburn had bye (so did Ole Miss before playing Hogs) and Miss st game. 
Hogs money line (it worked last weekend!) +290
Umass +21
Colorado +2
Syracuse +4.5
Syracuse money line +160
Minn -17
Mississippi +7.5
Iowa under 42.5
Houston over 62
Wyoming over 52.5
Utah +7
TCU +7

mckinneyhog5

Refs won't let Oregon win tonight...making sure of that.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

Green_Lanternn

October 21, 2016, 10:25:47 pm #10639 Last Edit: October 22, 2016, 01:01:12 am by Green_Lanternn
Took S. Florida L
Oregon -1
San Jose State +23.5
oregon and cal  under 90
Oregon and Cal under 48.5 (2h)

onebadrubi

Quote from: Spikes on October 21, 2016, 09:26:40 pm
Most of the games above have 60% or higher being bet on one side, but the line is moving in the other directions.  Just typical reverse line movement .  Have watched it a for the past few years, just never put much interest into until the old guy was betting it the same in Vegas.   It's 5-1 this week so far

I've said it before in here, you have no idea where the money really is going. Sportsbook are not disclosing that info fully and truthfully

mckinneyhog5

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 21, 2016, 10:39:56 pm
I've said it before in here, you have no idea where the money really is going. Sportsbook are not disclosing that info fully and truthfully
Plus when Vegas makes a line for a game they first give it to the heavy bettors to get a feel if their line is good or not. Then they adjust it and open betting to the public.  No one knows where the big money goes, well besides the casinos.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

onebadrubi

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on October 21, 2016, 11:32:42 pm
Plus when Vegas makes a line for a game they first give it to the heavy bettors to get a feel if their line is good or not. Then they adjust it and open betting to the public.  No one knows where the big money goes, well besides the casinos.

Exactly. Auburn would have gotten absolutely hammered at a one possession line, they had to make it a two possession line not to get teased and over exposed by teasers either, keep that in mind. They can put out a -10 line and reality is they think it is a -2 or -3 line but will get enough bets to even it out in their minds while limiting other exposures.

I really think auburn will be hammered based off of the bye week thought process.  I think you will see/feel/hear tomorrow the $100-$500 bettor hammer Arkansas and outside of the region of the game prolly be even on each side.

mckinneyhog5

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 21, 2016, 11:45:09 pm
Exactly. Auburn would have gotten absolutely hammered at a one possession line, they had to make it a two possession line not to get teased and over exposed by teasers either, keep that in mind. They can put out a -10 line and reality is they think it is a -2 or -3 line but will get enough bets to even it out in their minds while limiting other exposures.

I really think auburn will be hammered based off of the bye week thought process.  I think you will see/feel/hear tomorrow the $100-$500 bettor hammer Arkansas and outside of the region of the game prolly be even on each side.
I'm showing a 76/24 split with Arkansas receiving 76% of the money. What's even crazier is Arkansas is taking 97% of the money line. I don't like that at all. I never would bet against the hogs but this makes me feel very uneasy about this game.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

SPAL

Everything in my being says to bet auburn hard, but I can't do it.

Iowa +4
Kansas state +2
Texas tech +14

onebadrubi

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on October 21, 2016, 11:53:42 pm
I'm showing a 76/24 split with Arkansas receiving 76% of the money. What's even crazier is Arkansas is taking 97% of the money line. I don't like that at all. I never would bet against the hogs but this makes me feel very uneasy about this game.

That's because no one plays that big of a ML fav

WILL CLINTON

October 22, 2016, 11:04:13 am #10646 Last Edit: October 22, 2016, 07:21:36 pm by WILL CLINTON
Indiana +3
Rutgers +18
UL v NC St o66

Added:
SMU +23
Ball St -3
Mizzou -7
Bama -18
West Virginia -5
LSU -8
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

onebadrubi


mckinneyhog5

Quote from: onebadrubi on October 22, 2016, 09:33:05 am
That's because no one plays that big of a ML fav
Well, Minnesota is is -18 but taking 82% of the money line at -1100 and Army is -17.5 and money line at -900 taking 89%.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

mckinneyhog5

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.