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OU to SEC Realignment Thread-Updated 7-26-15

Started by MuskogeeHogFan, June 24, 2015, 06:34:34 am

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Cinco de Hogo

Has anyone talked about s viable B12 without Texad, OU and KU?

Iowa State
KSU
OSU
Tulsa
SMU
TCU
TTech
Baylor
Houston
Rice
Memphis
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana-whichever(could even be two of the three)
Cincinnati
West Virginia(to get to sixteen they will go ACC)

Is that a viable 16 team conference?  All of them are pretty serious about football.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on July 27, 2015, 05:36:42 pm
Has anyone talked about s viable B12 without Texad, OU and KU?

Iowa State
KSU
OSU
Tulsa
SMU
TCU
TTech
Baylor
Houston
Rice
Memphis
Colorado State
New Mexico
Louisiana-whichever(could even be two of the three)
Cincinnati
West Virginia(to get to sixteen they will go ACC)

Is that a viable 16 team conference?  All of them are pretty serious about football.


Pretty dumbed down conference that would draw little attention and interest and would be dominated for years to come by only a few teams. And again, politics are going to preclude OU from leaving OSU and probably Kansas from leaving K-State, holding the bag. The Big 12 will expand and stay intact, including Texas, OU and KU.

And by the way, Tulsa is the smallest institution in all of Div I FBS football and couldn't even come close to being consistently competitive in the conference you have outlined. JMO
Go Hogs Go!

 

Cinco de Hogo

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on July 27, 2015, 06:22:25 pm
Pretty dumbed down conference that would draw little attention and interest and would be dominated for years to come by only a few teams. And again, politics are going to preclude OU from leaving OSU and probably Kansas from leaving K-State, holding the bag. The Big 12 will expand and stay intact, including Texas, OU and KU. JMO

Aren't all conferences dominated by a few teams, the SEC sure is.  That's life, in order to have a top you have to have a bottom and those two usually stay about the same over time.

Yea it would be dumbed down but the point is there are still teams out there wanting to play big boy football that will not get invited to any of the P5 or P4.

Do you think they will get completely left out?

I think not but we will see.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on July 27, 2015, 06:29:00 pm
Aren't all conferences dominated by a few teams, the SEC sure is.  That's life, in order to have a top you have to have a bottom and those two usually stay about the same over time.

Yea it would be dumbed down but the point is there are still teams out there wanting to play big boy football that will not get invited to any of the P5 or P4.

Do you think they will get completely left out?

I think not but we will see.

I think the current Big 12 expands. OU isn't leaving OSU, Kansas isn't leaving K-State (same reasons as OU-OSU) and Texas and OU run the conference. Why go elsewhere where they are just another conference member and lose their considerable influence as to how a conference is ran?

If it is at all possible this conference will stay together and find two more members and get back to a CCG. Of course it might help them a great deal if they rid themselves of Bob Bowlsby, who seems fairly ineffective and devoid of foresight.
Go Hogs Go!

Cinco de Hogo

I agree that is the most likely senario but I just wanted to see on paper what the B12 might look like if and get opinions as to whether or not it would still be viable. 

If anyone wants to consider thSt possible outcome and comment feel free.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on July 27, 2015, 08:12:58 pm
I agree that is the most likely senario but I just wanted to see on paper what the B12 might look like if and get opinions as to whether or not it would still be viable. 

If anyone wants to consider thSt possible outcome and comment feel free.

I think, based on your post, this is what you are looking for?

North                 South
Kansas               Texas
K-State               Texas Tech
Iowa State          Baylor
Cincy                  TCU
Memphis              Oklahoma
W. Virginia           Okla State

The South would be the stronger football division. The North the stronger basketball division.
Go Hogs Go!

Cinco de Hogo

Not quite Musk, in my senario Texas, OU and KU are gone gone gone.  I think the 12 team league you listed is viable but what I wanted to know is if that happened could you make a league of the sixteen teams I listed that would be accepted as the fifth power conference.

And I do realize how much weaker it would be than the other four.  I just have a hard time believing that some of those teams could be left out entirely so I think it has to be at least five super conferences.

And that of course is why the B12 will survive...with Texas and OU in it.

GuvHog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on July 28, 2015, 07:33:01 am
I think, based on your post, this is what you are looking for?

North                 South
Kansas               Texas
K-State               Texas Tech
Iowa State          Baylor
Cincy                  TCU
Memphis              Oklahoma
W. Virginia           Okla State

The South would be the stronger football division. The North the stronger basketball division.

North                                   South
Kansas                                 Texas
Kansas State                         Texas Tech
Iowa State                            Baylor
Cincinnati                              TCU
Memphis                                BYU
West Virginia                          Boise State

That's still a pretty strong Big 12.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Murr

Lot's of smoke today

http://chat.virginiatech.sportswar.com/message_board/vtrealignment/2015/August/3/6556984.php
QuoteSEC + Oklahoma = most likely?

I pose that as a question, because I do not know. I do not claim to be an insider. Nobody actually knows, including the key decision makers - yet.

There seems to be a concrete offer from the SEC that Oklahoma regents and boosters are entertaining. That camp is solidly in favor of the SEC. President Boren is still weighing all options. However, stakeholders with cash and sway seem to not be interested in other options - especially the B1G.

Missouri is the hinge. Their chancellor now, Loftin, organized Texas A&M's departure from the 12. Mizzou's legal team worked them out of the same conference, obviously. They are quite far along the path toward helping OU move out of the 12 and into the SEC. Much, much more concretely than any other conference. Sensitive information and $ projects have been exchanged, both ways, for things to have progressed this far.

If I were to guess, I would say this has a 75% chance of happening. OU = SEC #15. Kansas to the B1G or ACC. Texas with some kind of quasi-independent Notre Dame deal with the ACC, toward both joining as permanent members some day. Their Longhorn Network fracas would be worked into an eventual ACCN somehow (both ESPN properties, which is key). I am fairly confident that the PAC is not really an option for any of these institutions. Texas will want to give a life raft to some in-state tagalongs. To my understanding the SEC is NOT considering OSU as an addition, nor any schools north of Oklahoma nor west of Missouri, to be clear. What happens to Iowa State, KSU, WVU? Who knows. But, there will be enough landing spots to detonate the conference and void the GoR, so it seems. Even without that, Oklahoma is on the move. Watch. Whether SEC or not, they have the stage in this round. Also, consider how quiet the SEC office and institutions have been about this subject recently... There are no sources or leaks for a reason. That is all coming from the 12, which is in combustion, and nobody wants to be tied in interference claims with lawsuits from Baylor.

The real question is who the SEC would add at #16. I think that this OU to SEC move is happening, and the public is just now starting to see smoke.

http://www.landthieves.com/board/showthread.php?91985-CR-Part-X-Sure-Why-Not&p=2367804&viewfull=1#post2367804
QuoteYes, I heard from a person that is connected to an OU Regent, that OU + OSU to the SEC was indeed in the works/talking/negotiation stage. The SEC didn't dismiss OSU out of hand apparently and were also apparently open to adding OSU.

It hasn't happened yet.....so who knows where we are at this point.

I have not heard anything in a few weeks. That means I have not heard anything regarding the B1G, nor anything about the SEC...or the Sunbelt for that matter. The empty set is empty.

Texas Tech beat writer believes Texas should just become an independent and possibly schedule the hogs.
http://www.stakingtheplains.com/2015/08/03/texas-longhorns-leave-the-big-12/
QuoteAt first blush the idea of such a departure seems ludicrous, particularly considering the recent ripples in some coaching circles about the perceived unfair advantage that current independent programs BYU, Army and especially Notre Dame have in navigating their way toward a berth in the College Football Playoff.  Those concerns were addressed last Thursday. "The three independents are perfectly happy being independent," Bill Hancock, executive director of the CFP said of the Irish, BYU and Army. "They have the ability to craft their schedules to fit their needs," Hancock told ESPN. If their need and goal is to be in the playoff, then they're in the same boat as everybody else. You better play a good schedule if you want to be in the playoff."

And it's that ability to craft their on schedules that should intrigue UT and its fan base–and potentially assuage member schools that the Longhorns would leave behind. An independent UT could maintain its annual matchups with Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. The Red River Rivalry could remain a staple of the Texas State Fair, and perhaps, most importantly, the Thanksgiving game with Texas A&M could–and should–resume. Throw in Arkansas, a service academy or two and an annual trip out west and the Longhorns' schedule would be worthy of its own ESPN affiliated network

Chip Brown speaks here.
http://www.scout.com/college/texas/story/1569620-what-do-changing-texas-ou-ties-mean-for-b12
QuoteSources told HD because the relationship among Texas and OU administrators isn't as close as it used to be, it's becoming easier for Boren to possibly sell a vision to those in his camp that one day may or may not include Texas when it comes to realignment.
That vision could be spearheading the drive to add two schools to the Big 12 or possibly bolting (with Oklahoma State) to another conference (most likely the SEC), sources tell HD.
When Texas A&M and Missouri left the Big 12 for the SEC back in 2011, Oklahoma also had a bid to the SEC, sources said. But the Sooners unsuccessfully explored joining the Pac-12 without Texas before staying in the Big 12.



Not OU-SEC Realignment speculation, but West Virginia's former AD Oliver Luck shed some light on how realignment went down several years ago:
http://www.connect-bridgeport.com/connect.cfm?func=view&section=Sports-Blog&item=From-the-Bench-Luck-Talks-New-NCAA-Gig-Big-12-Significance-and-Failure-to-Renew-Backyard-Brawl17619
Quote"I think it's accurate to say the ACC was never an option and all you have to do is go back and look at the history of the ACC and WVU's history with the Southern Conference. The ACC changed its membership four or five times and never was WVU in the discussion and never invited," said Luck. " ... When the most recent discussions were taking place, there was zero opportunity with the ACC – none."

As for the SEC, well, that's not the same story as our friends in the ACC. While Luck didn't talk specifics, he did say something could have happened if ...

"The SEC was a little bit different. Missouri took a long time to decide what it wanted to do and I think they were on the fence for six, seven, maybe eight months. Some thought Missouri was waiting for an offer from the Big 10 or may stay in the Big 12," said Luck. "Had they stayed or had they become a member of the Big 10, we may have had an opportunity – and I emphasize the word maybe – to be in the SEC. The thing is nobody really knew what would have happened. What we do know is that Missouri's move closed that door."

The door to the Big 10 was never open either and it had nothing to do with a slight at WVU. Luck said he had, and still has, a great relationship with Commissioner Jim Delaney, but that WVU simply did not have Association of American University status.

MuskogeeHogFan

Lots of speculation there and as many of those you quoted have said, "no one knows what is going on".

I still suspect that it plays out like this:

Option 1- Find two teams that they can add sometime in the next 2 to 4 years to get back to 12 teams and keep the conference intact.

Option 2- If Option 1 fails, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State announce that they are leaving the Big 12 for the SEC and everyone else is on their own.

Timing is everything and I am pretty sure the SEC isn't going to extend an offer with an unlimited window of time to anyone. So if they indicate that you have an opportunity to join, that could force the hand of a school to either fish or cut bait. If that offer comes again, can Oklahoma (and Oklahoma State as a tag-along) afford to just delay and bide their time? Doubtful. There's a lot to be said for being a member of a solid, stable conference that is recognized as the top conference in the country.
Go Hogs Go!

Doug

I got BLASTED on the WVU to SEC rumors, HARD, in 2010. Oliver Luck's comments only confirms what my sources were telling me then. :)

FYI, the general feeling that I'm getting from a few people is that WVU would bolt the Big 12 for the SEC, if invited. The buyout / GoR issue would not stop them.
--Doug
Full time Web Developer, Sports junkie and Sports Personality

@BearlyDoug  |  @GridironHistory  |  @Hogville
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(If you have a tech question, please post in the Help forum, instead of private messaging or emailing me (unless I request it). Thanks!)

Murr

Quote from: Doug on August 04, 2015, 07:17:47 am
I got BLASTED on the WVU to SEC rumors, HARD, in 2010. Oliver Luck's comments only confirms what my sources were telling me then. :)

FYI, the general feeling that I'm getting from a few people is that WVU would bolt the Big 12 for the SEC, if invited. The buyout / GoR issue would not stop them.

WVU would make a 200 year decision and bolt the B12 for the SEC if given the opportuniety.  Lots of the OU "insiders" claim OU is working with Mizzou on an exit.  If that's true, that's a good school to work with as their new President, A&M's old President/Chancler Lofton, helped A&M separate from the political ties of the Texas Legislature.  OU would have a similar task if trying to separate from OSU.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Doug on August 04, 2015, 07:17:47 am
I got BLASTED on the WVU to SEC rumors, HARD, in 2010. Oliver Luck's comments only confirms what my sources were telling me then. :)

FYI, the general feeling that I'm getting from a few people is that WVU would bolt the Big 12 for the SEC, if invited. The buyout / GoR issue would not stop them.

The question is, does the SEC want to add more schools with a higher academic ranking or has that become more or less, irrelevant? The school with the lowest academic ranking in the SEC is Miss State with a ranking of #156. W. Virginia would automatically become the bottom feeder of the conference in terms of academic ranking with their addition, with a ranking of #168. Also the lowest in the Big 12 currently. At least Oklahoma State would come in at #145 along with Oklahoma's ranking of #106. But maybe those considerations have become passe.
Go Hogs Go!

 

Dwight_K_Shrute

Dwight's Droppings on SEC realignment

Posting a current picture of the SEC landscape.  Conference had done a very good job of growing it's borders outward. 

We need to keep in mind what really drives this is money which is primarily generated by TV footprint.  Basically to claim a footprint in a state you just need one school.  There is no additional monetary gain by adding both Oklahoma schools instead of one.  West Virgina may be a decent fit culturally, but the disadvantages I see are:  No dominant TV markets (more on those in a bit), low academic ranking, and a common border with only one SEC school.  Notice every other SEC state shares a border with at least 2 other SEC states. If Oklahoma were added for example they would have a border with 3 SEC states.

Back to the real deciding factor, TV Markets.  I personally do not think the SEC gains much with continued westward expansion into Oklahoma.  Real TV dollars are to be made in the East, with Va Tech and a NC school.

TV Markets/State Pop
NC:  State Population 9.5 million
Top TV Markets Charlotte (24), Raleigh Durham (27), Greensboro-High Point (47)

VA:  State Population 8.0 million
Top TV Markets DC (9), Norfolk (42), Richmond (57), Roanoke (67)

OK:  State Population 3.8 million
Top TV Markets OKC (45) Tulsa (61)

WV:  State Population 1.9 million
Top TV Market Charleston Huntington (65)

I can just hear some saying but Dwight if population/TV markets are such a big factor Arkansas shouldn't even be in the SEC.  True, if we were being added now.  Back in 1990 it was not about TV footprint, cable subscribers, etc.  It was about getting to 12 teams and having a championship game to generate extra revenue.

Now one big factor is willingness to join the conference or desire to leave their current conference.  ACC has already shown they are not immune to schools bolting so a couple of ACC cousins might be able to be courted just like the SEC courted Texas A&M and Mizzou.

If I had my choice I would go after Va Tech and NC State.  NC State could be lured with getting out from under the big brother argument and Va Tech's roots in the ACC only go back to 2004.

So really if you line up Va Tech, NC State, WV, and OU or OSU which teams really bring the most to the table?  Which would grow revenue/TV footprint the most while falling in line with growing the SEC by expanding borders? 

Add OU and WV and you get states with combined population of 5.7 million.  Think about that, combined they are less than either NC or VA. 

Now I think either OU or WV would jump at the chance to join the SEC but the SEC has never expanded just to expand or as a reactionary measure.  It's been a calculated methodical expansion that grows the pie for all schools. 

For expansion to be a break even proposition the 2 new teams would have to increase the value of the conference by 14%.  SEC states have a population of 90 million.  This is why adding a Texas school and Missouri was a no brainer it increased the footprint by 50%.  Combined NC and VA would increase population base by 19% while OK/WV would increase it by 6%.  The value added from adding these two small states just isn't there.  Stranger things have happened but I'd be extremely surprised if WV makes it to the SEC and somewhat surprised if OU makes it.

Little known fact, but prior to settling on Guantanamo, the Pentagon wanted to house terror suspects at War Memorial Stadium.  It was deemed to be cruel and unusual punishment and in violation of the Geneva Convention.

Doug

FYI, if WVU comes in, you need to also add in the Pittsburgh TV market. LOTS of WVU fans live in that area.

Here's how I see things shaking up... if WVU comes in, they'll come in with either VT or NC State. This will allow Mizzou to shift west (which is what they were promised when they joined the SEC).

I honestly do not see OU / OSU coming into the SEC, at all, especially if Texas goes independent. Get Texas out and the Big 12 will stabilize nicely, especially if you bring Cincy, Houston and Memphis to replace Texas/WVU.

EDIT: Forgot about Florida State... they would JUMP at the chance to leave the ACC. They want to be in the SEC, big time... barring that, they'll also go to the Big 12. That would be almost enough to replace Texas by itself. If Big 12 adds those four teams to replace Texas (ind) and WVU (SEC), they're back up to 12 teams again and will be stable for quite some time.
--Doug
Full time Web Developer, Sports junkie and Sports Personality

@BearlyDoug  |  @GridironHistory  |  @Hogville
TheFan.net | BearlyDoug.com | My plugins on WordPress.org | GridironHistory.com

(If you have a tech question, please post in the Help forum, instead of private messaging or emailing me (unless I request it). Thanks!)

5HOG5

August 04, 2015, 07:39:58 pm #465 Last Edit: August 04, 2015, 07:52:10 pm by 5HOG5
I am curious to know if the SEC would want anymore members in the conference after having 14 teams.

Mike_e

If ESPN goes to offering content directly then the world spins differently than current models.

If direct to users becomes the norm then the popularity of a school becomes more important than it's cable base.  And that friends is a whole new can of worms.
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Dwight_K_Shrute

Quote from: Doug on August 04, 2015, 07:35:57 pm
FYI, if WVU comes in, you need to also add in the Pittsburgh TV market. LOTS of WVU fans live in that area.

There may be a lot of fans there, but cable systems get charged differently for carrying the SEC Network if an SEC school is in the state.  Basically from 2014 numbers when the carriage rates were being negotiated SEC states paid $1.40 per subscriber while non-SEC paid $.25.  Pittsburgh subscribers would pay $.25 even if WV was added so it's a non factor the incremental revenue WV might bring in.
Little known fact, but prior to settling on Guantanamo, the Pentagon wanted to house terror suspects at War Memorial Stadium.  It was deemed to be cruel and unusual punishment and in violation of the Geneva Convention.

Dominicanhog

Quote from: Dwight_K_Shrute on August 04, 2015, 07:28:55 pm

Back to the real deciding factor, TV Markets.  I personally do not think the SEC gains much with continued westward expansion into Oklahoma.  Real TV dollars are to be made in the East, with Va Tech and a NC school.

TV Markets/State Pop
NC:  State Population 9.5 million
Top TV Markets Charlotte (24), Raleigh Durham (27), Greensboro-High Point (47)

VA:  State Population 8.0 million
Top TV Markets DC (9), Norfolk (42), Richmond (57), Roanoke (67)


If I had my choice I would go after Va Tech and NC State.  NC State could be lured with getting out from under the big brother argument and Va Tech's roots in the ACC only go back to 2004.



Bingo..

This is what I've been thinking all along.... and when all is said and done, the way it will happen... It would be a good move for both schools and the SEC... NCst gets out from under the shadow of big brother and VT has no real ties to the ACC...

SwinerBock

Just out of curiosity... and forgive me ahead of time, because it is probably a stupid question.... what rules or guidelines exist (if any do) to kick a school *out* of the SEC?

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: Mike_e on August 04, 2015, 07:45:16 pm
If ESPN goes to offering content directly then the world spins differently than current models.

If direct to users becomes the norm then the popularity of a school becomes more important than it's cable base.  And that friends is a whole new can of worms.

Yep. Things could change in the criteria for conferences and who are in them.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Hawghiggs

 Just no to WVU. They are awful. Would rather add Iowa state.  They are a top 50 university. Should they be the number one target? No. But if we are adding Oklahoma. Then why not add them?

Read for yourself
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_State_University#Rankings

   East Division
1, Alabama
2, Auburn
3, Florida
4, Georgia
5, Kentucky
6, South Carolina
7, Tennessee
8, Vanderbilt

  West Division
1, Arkansas
2, Iowa State
3, LSU
4, Mississippi
5, Mississippi State
6, Missouri
7, Oklahoma
8, Texas A&M

EastexHawg

The SEC is the premier football conference already.  It makes no sense to add teams that lower the overall power of the conference.  By the same token, if a program with the national prestige of Oklahoma is ready to jump it makes no sense to let them go to another conference, thereby increasing the clout of that conference in relation to the SEC.

If Oklahoma and North Carolina...or even Virginia Tech...are playing games against quality opponents at the same time on a Saturday afternoon more Americans will tune in to watch Oklahoma.  Their national championships, BCS bowl victories, and overall record speak for themselves.

By taking Oklahoma you improve your own product while at the same time blocking your "competitor" conferences from improving theirs.  You also cut the legs from under the Big 12.  It's a win-win-win for the SEC.

All else being equal, from a football point of view the choice is a no brainer.  And, after all, football is all that really matters.

GuvHog

Quote from: Dominicanhog on August 04, 2015, 08:03:08 pm
Bingo..

This is what I've been thinking all along.... and when all is said and done, the way it will happen... It would be a good move for both schools and the SEC... NCst gets out from under the shadow of big brother and VT has no real ties to the ACC...

As I've said before, the ACC agreement is far more stringent and it would be massively expensive for an ACC school to leave that conference, far more expensive than it would be for a Big 12 school to leave. As much as some want it, I just don't see it happening
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

 

GuvHog

Quote from: Murr on August 04, 2015, 12:51:35 am
Lot's of smoke today

http://chat.virginiatech.sportswar.com/message_board/vtrealignment/2015/August/3/6556984.php
http://www.landthieves.com/board/showthread.php?91985-CR-Part-X-Sure-Why-Not&p=2367804&viewfull=1#post2367804
Texas Tech beat writer believes Texas should just become an independent and possibly schedule the hogs.
http://www.stakingtheplains.com/2015/08/03/texas-longhorns-leave-the-big-12/
Chip Brown speaks here.
http://www.scout.com/college/texas/story/1569620-what-do-changing-texas-ou-ties-mean-for-b12


Not OU-SEC Realignment speculation, but West Virginia's former AD Oliver Luck shed some light on how realignment went down several years ago:
http://www.connect-bridgeport.com/connect.cfm?func=view&section=Sports-Blog&item=From-the-Bench-Luck-Talks-New-NCAA-Gig-Big-12-Significance-and-Failure-to-Renew-Backyard-Brawl17619

I have believed all along that OU and Oklahoma State would be the next 2 schools added to the SEC and the links that you posted lend strong credence to that being the case. Thanks for the links.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

online-with-swine

The key with the Big 12 GOR is to get enough teams jumping for the conference to implode and take the GOR with it.  Texas going indie, Kansas to Big10 and Ok to SEC would about do it.

Personally, OK with NC State or VTech would be my choice over OSU.  But circumstances don't always take into account what I want.

HeismanHawg

Whatever happens the current divisions need to be re aligned with Auburn and Alabama going to the EAST. I hate Oklahoma but the west consisting of
1. Arkansas
2. Missouri
3. Ole Mi$$
4. Miss stake
5. LSU
6. Texas ATM
7. Oklahoma
8. ?????? (OSU) (Vandy) (Tennessee)

In my humble opinion I'd like to see us add one west (Oklahoma) and one eastern school (V Tech, UNC) and re align divisions.

Hawghiggs

 ESPN will not pay extra for ACC team to the SEC. So ACC team are almost a dead issue for that reason alone.

Rison Razor Hog

Quote from: Hawghiggs on August 05, 2015, 12:14:28 pm
ESPN will not pay extra for ACC team to the SEC. So ACC team are almost a dead issue for that reason alone.

Not that I care exactly, specifically, but there have been a number of links and stories discussed here and you post this derisive missive with no link and certitude. It won't wash, unless you can back it up in some small way. I realize there is also a lot of speculation going on, but again, certitude is not convincing by itself.
And on my deathbed, I'll achieve total consciousness, so I've got that goin' for me!

To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin: Billions for defense, but not one cent for dhimmitude!

GuvHog

Quote from: Rison Razor Hog on August 05, 2015, 12:20:28 pm
Not that I care exactly, specifically, but there have been a number of links and stories discussed here and you post this derisive missive with no link and certitude. It won't wash, unless you can back it up in some small way. I realize there is also a lot of speculation going on, but again, certitude is not convincing by itself.

I've been saying all along that it would be far too expensive for the SEC and for any ACC school to go that route. I just don't see it happening.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Hawghiggs

Quote from: Rison Razor Hog on August 05, 2015, 12:20:28 pm
Not that I care exactly, specifically, but there have been a number of links and stories discussed here and you post this derisive missive with no link and certitude. It won't wash, unless you can back it up in some small way. I realize there is also a lot of speculation going on, but again, certitude is not convincing by itself.
I know that I had read something a kin to it during the last realignment. But I could not find it. So take it for what its worth. But, ESPN owns the rights to all of the ACC content. Not just tier 1 and tier 2. That's why its taking so long for the ACC to get a network up and running. ESPN also owns the rights to most of the SEC. All except the tier 1 rights that CBS pays for their game of the week. Now all of the SEC tier 3 rights transition over to the SEC network. Now ask yourself this. Why in the heck would ESPN support the SEC expansion into media rights that they already own. The simple answer is they wouldn't. They would however support the SEC to go after Big 12 candidates that Fox owns the rights to.

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: jgphillips3 on July 27, 2015, 01:08:19 pm
How does that change the validity of what I said conceptually?  It seems obvious that the SEC doesn't want OSU.  I'm just trying to give their fans a positive spin on what may seem like a bad situation...but which ultimately may be good.  Who knows how this turns out but I still think OU is going to parlay themselves to a superior conference, SEC, B1G or PAC 14 within the next decade.

I don't think the SEC wants OSU over OU, certainly.  But if the Big 12 comes apart, and OU bolts for the B1G or PAC, I could see Okie State getting on the SEC's radar.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Hawghiggs on August 05, 2015, 04:00:14 pm
I know that I had read something a kin to it during the last realignment. But I could not find it. So take it for what its worth. But, ESPN owns the rights to all of the ACC content. Not just tier 1 and tier 2. That's why its taking so long for the ACC to get a network up and running. ESPN also owns the rights to most of the SEC. All except the tier 1 rights that CBS pays for their game of the week. Now all of the SEC tier 3 rights transition over to the SEC network. Now ask yourself this. Why in the heck would ESPN support the SEC expansion into media rights that they already own. The simple answer is they wouldn't. They would however support the SEC to go after Big 12 candidates that Fox owns the rights to.

That also assumes that ESPN is calling all of the shots.  The networks are very powerful players, but they're not all powerful.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Rison Razor Hog

Quote from: Rison Razor Hog on August 05, 2015, 12:20:28 pm
Not that I care exactly, specifically, but there have been a number of links and stories discussed here and you post this derisive missive with no link and certitude. It won't wash, unless you can back it up in some small way. I realize there is also a lot of speculation going on, but again, certitude is not convincing by itself.

Quote from: Hawghiggs on August 05, 2015, 04:00:14 pm
I know that I had read something a kin to it during the last realignment. But I could not find it. So take it for what its worth. But, ESPN owns the rights to all of the ACC content. Not just tier 1 and tier 2. That's why its taking so long for the ACC to get a network up and running. ESPN also owns the rights to most of the SEC. All except the tier 1 rights that CBS pays for their game of the week. Now all of the SEC tier 3 rights transition over to the SEC network. Now ask yourself this. Why in the heck would ESPN support the SEC expansion into media rights that they already own. The simple answer is they wouldn't. They would however support the SEC to go after Big 12 candidates that Fox owns the rights to.

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on August 05, 2015, 04:03:42 pm
That also assumes that ESPN is calling all of the shots.  The networks are very powerful players, but they're not all powerful.

This analysis is less certitude and more thought, I see your point/angle and it does make some sense... I do agree with NaturalStateReb's point on this also, however.
And on my deathbed, I'll achieve total consciousness, so I've got that goin' for me!

To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin: Billions for defense, but not one cent for dhimmitude!

GuvHog

Quote from: Hawghiggs on August 05, 2015, 04:00:14 pm
I know that I had read something a kin to it during the last realignment. But I could not find it. So take it for what its worth. But, ESPN owns the rights to all of the ACC content. Not just tier 1 and tier 2. That's why its taking so long for the ACC to get a network up and running. ESPN also owns the rights to most of the SEC. All except the tier 1 rights that CBS pays for their game of the week. Now all of the SEC tier 3 rights transition over to the SEC network. Now ask yourself this. Why in the heck would ESPN support the SEC expansion into media rights that they already own. The simple answer is they wouldn't. They would however support the SEC to go after Big 12 candidates that Fox owns the rights to.

Yet another reason an ACC school moving to the SEC is highly unlikely. Great post.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

MuskogeeHogFan

August 05, 2015, 05:12:44 pm #485 Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 05:34:12 pm by MuskogeeHogFan
Quote from: NaturalStateReb on August 05, 2015, 04:02:31 pm
I don't think the SEC wants OSU over OU, certainly.  But if the Big 12 comes apart, and OU bolts for the B1G or PAC, I could see Okie State getting on the SEC's radar.

And what do academics mean in all of this? Is the argument for adding teams of higher academic value still one that holds merit, or will previously unseen compromises occur to bring all of the teams into the fold should there be a diametric shift in conference affiliations?

If you look at academic rankings out of the Big 12, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, TCU, Kansas and Iowa State could move to virtually any conference from which they received an invitation. Not so for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, K-State and W. Virginia(who ranks last in the Big 12 in academic ranking and below every team in the current SEC as well).

Is Oklahoma allowed to leave Okla State with only one potential destination (and nothing guaranteed there) with regard to academic ranking in the SEC? Do Kansas politics allow Kansas to leave K-State hanging as well?

If academic ranking remains a part of the equation for invitations, 4 of the 10 in the Big 12 are going to be left holding the proverbial bag if the other 6 start to bolt for greener and more secure pastures. Will state politics allow that to happen or will deals be cut that mimic something like, "if you want this team, you have to take this other team as well. It is a package deal"?
Go Hogs Go!

Dominicanhog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 05, 2015, 05:12:44 pm
And what do academics mean in all of this? Is the argument for adding teams of higher academic value still one that holds merit, or will previously unseen compromises occur to bring all of the teams into the fold should there be a diametric shift in conference affiliations?

If you look at academic rankings out of the Big 12, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, TCU, Kansas and Iowa State could move to virtually any conference from which they received an invitation. Not so for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, K-State and W. Virginia(who ranks last in the Big 12 in academic ranking and below every team in the current SEC as well).

Is Oklahoma allowed to leave Okla State with only one potential destination (and nothing guaranteed there) with regard to academic ranking in the SEC? Do Kansas politics allow Kansas to leave K-State hanging as well?

If academic ranking remains a part of the equation for invitations, 4 of the 10 in the Big 12 are going to be left holding the proverbial bag if the other 6 start to bolt for greener and more secure pastures. Will state politics allow that to happen or will deals be cut that mimic something like, "if you want this team, you have to take this other team as well. It is a package deal"?

IMO, money will decide, not academics, not state loyalty or anything else... if something like OU to SEC happened, other conferences would pick up the pieces.. Kansas can find a conference, certainly Texas would have it's pick, if not an independent... TCU, Baylor,OSU will stand on the economical platform of does the school benefit said conference...

In the end, I think the leftovers would form a new conference with additions such as Boise St, CSU, Memphis, Cincy, Houston etc...

Cinco de Hogo

Well heck lets just build the top 16 academic schools in the country into one conference if that's all it's about.

Well heck lets just build the top 16 media market schools in the country into one conference if that's all it's about.

Well heck lets just build the top 16 elite football schools in the country into one conference if that's all it's about.

None of that is gonna happen.

All conferences will have a mixture and that WILL include schools not meeting any of those standards.

Mike_e

Money may not drive the bus but it does pay for the gas.

One question you have to ask is if the conference gets too tough for us to put a team into the playoffs Every year would the lack of prestige from that
out weight the monetary benefits of adding additional schools.  In other words would we lose money from being thought less of than gain from additional content.

We may find out what parity does to us this year.
The best "one thing" for a happy life?
Just be the best person that you can manage.  Right Now!

WarPig88

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 05, 2015, 05:12:44 pm
And what do academics mean in all of this? Is the argument for adding teams of higher academic value still one that holds merit, or will previously unseen compromises occur to bring all of the teams into the fold should there be a diametric shift in conference affiliations?

If you look at academic rankings out of the Big 12, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, TCU, Kansas and Iowa State could move to virtually any conference from which they received an invitation. Not so for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, K-State and W. Virginia(who ranks last in the Big 12 in academic ranking and below every team in the current SEC as well).

Is Oklahoma allowed to leave Okla State with only one potential destination (and nothing guaranteed there) with regard to academic ranking in the SEC? Do Kansas politics allow Kansas to leave K-State hanging as well?

If academic ranking remains a part of the equation for invitations, 4 of the 10 in the Big 12 are going to be left holding the proverbial bag if the other 6 start to bolt for greener and more secure pastures. Will state politics allow that to happen or will deals be cut that mimic something like, "if you want this team, you have to take this other team as well. It is a package deal"?

A rising tide raises all ships.

Elite level sports create more money for schools than people realize. Not just in the form of direct ticket sales and tv money. It is a form of advertising where you get paid to do it and it benefits you as well.

If it weren't for Title XI, sports would be an even bigger money maker than it is now.

EastexHawg

Quote from: Mike_e on August 06, 2015, 01:44:21 pm
Money may not drive the bus but it does pay for the gas.

One question you have to ask is if the conference gets too tough for us to put a team into the playoffs Every year would the lack of prestige from that
out weight the monetary benefits of adding additional schools.  In other words would we lose money from being thought less of than gain from additional content.

We may find out what parity does to us this year.

That's why it is so important that every major (power) conference champion has to have a bid to the playoff.  That way it wouldn't matter if the SEC champ was 9-3 or even 8-4.

I think if all conference champions were guaranteed a spot regardless of record it may encourage schools to schedule better out of conference opponents.  If you know you can go 2-2 in OOC and it will have no affect on your odds of making the playoffs you might want to schedule games that will drawer larger crowds, sell more concessions, and give you a better chance of national TV exposure.

Murr

Quote from: Dwight_K_Shrute on August 04, 2015, 07:28:55 pm
Dwight's Droppings on SEC realignment


Great post Dwight.  My only argument is content will trump market size over the course of time.  When the SEC added Texas A&M and Missouri, CBS bulked at giving us a raise in our Tier 1 contract because they said it didn't raise the level of quality enough for them to merit a raise, but they did increase the annual donations to keep the per team average the same at 14 members. 

The last round of realignment was about maximizing conference network money, the next one will be about content as the delivery models are changing as cord cutters are leaving basic cable and satellite TV for more digital means.  In this future era, content, alumni size and fan support will play a bigger role than one's market sizes did in the previous round.

With that said, if OU applied to join, they would be accepted granted we could figure out a way to broadcast their TV right so that the rest of the conference doesn't lose money in this deal.

Let's look as some ways the SEC could get OU's TV rights from the Big 12's GOR:
1. OU exits the B12, joins the SEC, sues the Big 12 for their TV rights and somehow wins.  Ideal senario.
2.  OU exits the B12, leaves their Tier 1 or 2 rights behind and joins the SEC.  That leaves only one home OU football game, usually the least exciting scheduled game against Crappalachian State, that can be aired on the SEC network until 2024/2025 with a handful of basketball games.
3.  Dissolve the B12. GOR is voided.  All teams look for new homes.  Problem though, is all those schools that don't find new rich homes sue for HUGE damages.
4. Dissolve the B12.  GOR is voided.  TV Network collude and all ten tens have landing spots in other P5 conferences.  No major damages suffered.

Ideally, if the SEC could expand with Oklahoma at #15, from a value stand point, Virginia Tech would probably be the most realistic choice for #16.  If we danged the carrot in front of North Carolina State, I think they would brake the chains that bind to take up that offer, but that would probably shut the door for UNC ever entering this conference.


Here's a couple articles that question the strength of a GOR:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/myth-of-the-big-12s-grant-of-rights-010313
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/the-acc-and-marylands-lawsuit-is-getting-nasty-032514
http://sportspolitico.com/2015/02/16/will-grant-of-rights-protect-big12-from-future-raids/

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on August 05, 2015, 05:12:44 pm
And what do academics mean in all of this? Is the argument for adding teams of higher academic value still one that holds merit, or will previously unseen compromises occur to bring all of the teams into the fold should there be a diametric shift in conference affiliations?

If you look at academic rankings out of the Big 12, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, TCU, Kansas and Iowa State could move to virtually any conference from which they received an invitation. Not so for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, K-State and W. Virginia(who ranks last in the Big 12 in academic ranking and below every team in the current SEC as well).

Is Oklahoma allowed to leave Okla State with only one potential destination (and nothing guaranteed there) with regard to academic ranking in the SEC? Do Kansas politics allow Kansas to leave K-State hanging as well?

If academic ranking remains a part of the equation for invitations, 4 of the 10 in the Big 12 are going to be left holding the proverbial bag if the other 6 start to bolt for greener and more secure pastures. Will state politics allow that to happen or will deals be cut that mimic something like, "if you want this team, you have to take this other team as well. It is a package deal"?

I don't think the academics mean much.  All of these schools are good institutions.  I think the AAU things was just to set things up if the ACC come unspun; then the SEC could make a credible academics argument to UNC & Co.  With 4 AAU schools, that's just 1 shy of what the ACC has right now.  The SEC could say to UNC and UVA, "if you come to the SEC, you'll actually be in a league with more AAU schools than you were before."  I think that's the extent of the SEC's interest in AAU.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Murr on August 06, 2015, 11:42:03 pm
Great post Dwight.  My only argument is content will trump market size over the course of time.  When the SEC added Texas A&M and Missouri, CBS bulked at giving us a raise in our Tier 1 contract because they said it didn't raise the level of quality enough for them to merit a raise, but they did increase the annual donations to keep the per team average the same at 14 members. 

The last round of realignment was about maximizing conference network money, the next one will be about content as the delivery models are changing as cord cutters are leaving basic cable and satellite TV for more digital means.  In this future era, content, alumni size and fan support will play a bigger role than one's market sizes did in the previous round.

With that said, if OU applied to join, they would be accepted granted we could figure out a way to broadcast their TV right so that the rest of the conference doesn't lose money in this deal.

Let's look as some ways the SEC could get OU's TV rights from the Big 12's GOR:
1. OU exits the B12, joins the SEC, sues the Big 12 for their TV rights and somehow wins.  Ideal senario.
2.  OU exits the B12, leaves their Tier 1 or 2 rights behind and joins the SEC.  That leaves only one home OU football game, usually the least exciting scheduled game against Crappalachian State, that can be aired on the SEC network until 2024/2025 with a handful of basketball games.
3.  Dissolve the B12. GOR is voided.  All teams look for new homes.  Problem though, is all those schools that don't find new rich homes sue for HUGE damages.
4. Dissolve the B12.  GOR is voided.  TV Network collude and all ten tens have landing spots in other P5 conferences.  No major damages suffered.

Ideally, if the SEC could expand with Oklahoma at #15, from a value stand point, Virginia Tech would probably be the most realistic choice for #16.  If we danged the carrot in front of North Carolina State, I think they would brake the chains that bind to take up that offer, but that would probably shut the door for UNC ever entering this conference.


Here's a couple articles that question the strength of a GOR:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/myth-of-the-big-12s-grant-of-rights-010313
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/the-acc-and-marylands-lawsuit-is-getting-nasty-032514
http://sportspolitico.com/2015/02/16/will-grant-of-rights-protect-big12-from-future-raids/


In order for both OU and VT/NC State, you're going to have to have disruptions in both the Big 12 and the ACC.  You might have that happen in one, but probably not both.  I just don't think the ACC is going to lose anyone.  I think it's completely stable right now.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Buck Brewer

If OU can pull off leaving without OSU, you take KU , shift Mizzou back west and move Bama and AU east, call it a day

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on August 07, 2015, 12:53:38 pm
I don't think the academics mean much.  All of these schools are good institutions.  I think the AAU things was just to set things up if the ACC come unspun; then the SEC could make a credible academics argument to UNC & Co.  With 4 AAU schools, that's just 1 shy of what the ACC has right now.  The SEC could say to UNC and UVA, "if you come to the SEC, you'll actually be in a league with more AAU schools than you were before."  I think that's the extent of the SEC's interest in AAU.

They (academic ranking considerations) seem to have meant a great deal in the past, but things may be changing if all of this realignment takes place. That said, and I could be totally wrong, I don't think the Big 12 as a group breaks up unless all of the schools are assured that they won't be leaving one of their Big 12 brethren behind, holding the bag. I think that as you have mentioned before, state politics will play a role in all of this whether you are talking about teams from the state of Oklahoma, Kansas, Virginia or N. Carolina.

We can all name the teams that we think would make the most sense in terms of what they bring to the table, but there are many more obstacles that have to be overcome ranging from politics, loyalty to one another and the terms of Grant of Rights Agreements that might effect the decisions of the school involved as well as the receiving conferences.
Go Hogs Go!