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SEC RECRUITING BY THE NUMBERS

Started by Michael D Huff AIA, December 08, 2016, 09:46:19 am

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Michael D Huff AIA

I appreciate the discussion on my last thread about the win/loss records of previous coaches.

Several years ago I looked into the effects recruiting has on BCS/Playoff participation.  Who does less with more or more with less?  I only tracked through the top 50 schools.  If you have the #63 recruiting class, well, great.  I picked this list up again recently and here it is.

This is what I found, and within these numbers you can see the rise of not just the SEC, but the SEC West.
Note:  All averages rounded to once decimal.

Teams         02      03      04     05     06     07     08     09     10     11     12     13     14     15     16

East
Tennessee       2        18      14      4      23      3      35      10    9      13     17     21      5      5       15       
Georgia           3        6        6       10     4       9       7        6     15     5      12     12      7      7       11
South Car.       11      8        24     23     24      6      22      12    24    18     19     16      16    19      27
Florida             20      2        7       15     2       1       3       11    2      12     3       4        8     23      14
Kentucky          NR     NR     35      NR    36     NR     NR     41    50    NR    NR    29      17    36      29
Vanderbilt        NR     NR     NR     NR    NR     NR     NR     NR    NR   NR    29     19      49    47     NR
Missouri            -        -        -        -       -         -       -        -       -      -      31     41      34    27     47
Best 4 avg.      9.0     8.5     12.8   13    13.3   4.8    16.8   9.8   12.5  12    12.8  18      9.0   13.5   16.8

West
Auburn            6        11      23     13     10      7       20     19    4      7      10      9       9       6       9
LSU                 15      1        2       22     7       4       11      2     6      6      18      6       2       8       5
Miss. St.          17      9        NR     33     46     39     44      25    38    44    30      26     37     16     25
Arkansas         27      29       16     24     27     31     36      16    49    24    34      27     29     25     32
Alabama         30      49       15     18     11     10      1       1      5      1      1       1       1       2       1
Ole Miss          33      38       29     30     15     27      29     18    18    19    40      7       19     21      8
TAMU               -         -        -        -       -        -        -       -       -      -      15     11      6      10      16
Best 4 avg.     16.3    12.5    14     19.3  10.8   12     15.3   9.3  8.3    8.3   11     5.8    4.5    6.5     5.8

Things I noticed:
1.  The Saban Effect.  Damn.
2.  The West has had better recruiting than the East for 9 consecutive years (using the best 4 classes on each side).  The East had better classes every year in this list but one.
3.  In '14 and '15 ALL the SEC teams had recruiting classes in the Top 50.  Even Vandy.
4.  The largest difference between the two divisions is the class of '13, which just so happen to be seniors now.
5.  Arkansas is the only team in the SEC West that has not had a class in the Top 10 in this sample, regardless of coach.  (Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the East)
6.  Arkansas' average all time is 28.4.  CBB's is 28.25.  Petrino had 31.25.  Nutt had 25.67.  As we saw with the win/loss post, CBB had a lot more competition now than Nutt did in his tenure.

Enjoy.

311Hog

not the x's and o's its the jimmys and the joes....

 

Sho Nuff

How did MSU go from 9th to NR in consecutive seasons???  Was this the year that Jackie left and Croom took over?

hogsanity

Quote from: 311Hog on December 08, 2016, 09:50:58 am
not the x's and o's its the jimmys and the joes....

No WAY, we just need to make sure to get guys who want it bad enough, talent be darned.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

311Hog

i would also add the "Urban Meyer" effect wow. :puke:

hogsanity

I'm shocked, SHOCKED, that the teams closest to the most talent had the best recruiting classes. Note I said closest to talent, that does not mean totally in state but within a couple hundred miles.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

311Hog

Quote from: hogsanity on December 08, 2016, 10:21:21 am
I'm shocked, SHOCKED, that the teams closest to the most talent had the best recruiting classes. Note I said closest to talent, that does not mean totally in state but within a couple hundred miles.

yeah Louisiana and FLorida being the two "most talent rich" i believe and Alabama being inbetween them....

Hogwild

Quote from: Sho Nuff on December 08, 2016, 10:04:44 am
How did MSU go from 9th to NR in consecutive seasons???  Was this the year that Jackie left and Croom took over?

One year Miss. State signed over 30 recruits, that might have been the year.

oldman1015

Arkansas, the left lane state.

Bubba's Bruisers

I will put enmity between you and the woman, and between your offspring and her offspring; he shall bruise your head, and you shall bruise his heal.

Genesis 3:15

Youngsta71701

Quote from: 311Hog on December 08, 2016, 09:50:58 am
not the x's and o's its the jimmys and the joes....
If this is the case then Texas and Notre Dame shouldn't be losing as much as they are right now. ???
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Michael D Huff AIA on December 08, 2016, 09:46:19 am
I appreciate the discussion on my last thread about the win/loss records of previous coaches.

Several years ago I looked into the effects recruiting has on BCS/Playoff participation.  Who does less with more or more with less?  I only tracked through the top 50 schools.  If you have the #63 recruiting class, well, great.  I picked this list up again recently and here it is.

This is what I found, and within these numbers you can see the rise of not just the SEC, but the SEC West.
Note:  All averages rounded to once decimal.

Teams         02      03      04     05     06     07     08     09     10     11     12     13     14     15     16

East
Tennessee       2        18      14      4      23      3      35      10    9      13     17     21      5      5       15       
Georgia           3        6        6       10     4       9       7        6     15     5      12     12      7      7       11
South Car.       11      8        24     23     24      6      22      12    24    18     19     16      16    19      27
Florida             20      2        7       15     2       1       3       11    2      12     3       4        8     23      14
Kentucky          NR     NR     35      NR    36     NR     NR     41    50    NR    NR    29      17    36      29
Vanderbilt        NR     NR     NR     NR    NR     NR     NR     NR    NR   NR    29     19      49    47     NR
Missouri            -        -        -        -       -         -       -        -       -      -      31     41      34    27     47
Best 4 avg.      9.0     8.5     12.8   13    13.3   4.8    16.8   9.8   12.5  12    12.8  18      9.0   13.5   16.8

West
Auburn            6        11      23     13     10      7       20     19    4      7      10      9       9       6       9
LSU                 15      1        2       22     7       4       11      2     6      6      18      6       2       8       5
Miss. St.          17      9        NR     33     46     39     44      25    38    44    30      26     37     16     25
Arkansas         27      29       16     24     27     31     36      16    49    24    34      27     29     25     32
Alabama         30      49       15     18     11     10      1       1      5      1      1       1       1       2       1
Ole Miss          33      38       29     30     15     27      29     18    18    19    40      7       19     21      8
TAMU               -         -        -        -       -        -        -       -       -      -      15     11      6      10      16
Best 4 avg.     16.3    12.5    14     19.3  10.8   12     15.3   9.3  8.3    8.3   11     5.8    4.5    6.5     5.8

Things I noticed:
1.  The Saban Effect.  Damn.
2.  The West has had better recruiting than the East for 9 consecutive years (using the best 4 classes on each side).  The East had better classes every year in this list but one.
3.  In '14 and '15 ALL the SEC teams had recruiting classes in the Top 50.  Even Vandy.
4.  The largest difference between the two divisions is the class of '13, which just so happen to be seniors now.
5.  Arkansas is the only team in the SEC West that has not had a class in the Top 10 in this sample, regardless of coach.  (Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the East)
6.  Arkansas' average all time is 28.4.  CBB's is 28.25.  Petrino had 31.25.  Nutt had 25.67.  As we saw with the win/loss post, CBB had a lot more competition now than Nutt did in his tenure.

Enjoy.

Nice work.  Wouldn't ask you to do it as it would be much more time consuming.  But an even truer picture for some needs to be painted in relation to other programs and how they compare in their conference vs if they were in the SEC.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 11:15:41 am
If this is the case then Texas and Notre Dame shouldn't be losing as much as they are right now. ???

Texas has played for 2 NC's since integration (bowls where they were 1 or 2) and won 1.  There is more going on there than recruiting although that played a part in it. 



Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

 

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on December 08, 2016, 11:19:58 am
Texas has played for 2 NC's since integration (bowls where they were 1 or 2) and won 1.  There is more going on there than recruiting although that played a part in it.
That's my point. Those two programs have talent every year. You can have all the best players in the country but without a great coach you still aren't going to win anything.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 11:38:16 am
That's my point. Those two programs have talent every year. You can have all the best players in the country but without a great coach you still aren't going to win anything.

Not true.  You don't need a great coach in some instances.

Texas goes beyond coaching.  It is the 'white shirt" attitude the Horns have always had.  Post-Royal the coaching job has grown even more into something much bigger than coaching.  Mack Brown was a great fit.  Never a great coach.  Not even sure a good coach.  But he was a great recruiter at UNC and he and his wife fit the image of what Texas wants leading their football program.  Mack could and would play politician and diplomat to the Texas power brokers.  Texas worries way too much about everything but winning championships in football. 

ND not unlike Texas.  They want to be Duke but win at an elite level.  Not going to happen.  They don't outrecruit like they once did before scholarship limitations.  The only time since integration ND has been relevant for an extended time, books have been written about how scandalous they were in doing it.  Not going to happen again.

Are you trying to reach again and relate these programs to our situation?
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

davril98

Nice info, thanks!  As with most things, it's a combination of factors.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on December 08, 2016, 11:44:54 am
Not true.  You don't need a great coach in some instances.

Texas goes beyond coaching.  It is the 'white shirt" attitude the Horns have always had.  Post-Royal the coaching job has grown even more into something much bigger than coaching.  Mack Brown was a great fit.  Never a great coach.  Not even sure a good coach.  But he was a great recruiter at UNC and he and his wife fit the image of what Texas wants leading their football program.  Mack could and would play politician and diplomat to the Texas power brokers.  Texas worries way too much about everything but winning championships in football. 

ND not unlike Texas.  They want to be Duke but win at an elite level.  Not going to happen.  They don't outrecruit like they once did before scholarship limitations.  The only time since integration ND has been relevant for an extended time, books have been written about how scandalous they were in doing it.  Not going to happen again.

Are you trying to reach again and relate these programs to our situation?
Nope, just trying to point out that you don't have to have the best recruiting classes to win. A lot of programs are winning now a days without top ranked recruiting classes. They might no be winning national championships but they are winning a lot of ball games while looking good and competitive in the ones they lose. That's all.

And I see plenty of talent on the hill. Maybe not enough team speed yet but more than enough talent that just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Now keep in mind that I'm mainly talking about the defense and some questionable in game decisions by the Head man. The offense will be fine. Am I wrong in that assessment?

#CoachingMatters
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 11:57:54 am
Nope, just trying to point out that you don't have to have the best recruiting classes to win. A lot of programs are winning now a days without top ranked recruiting classes. They might no be winning national championships but they are winning a lot of ball games while looking good and competitive in the ones they lose. That's all. Am I wrong in that assessment?

Depends on what programs.  This thread seemed to be more to our situation in the SEC. 

It is rare to have a program who doesn't recruit well (rankings) compared to its conference competition win a lot of games especially over an extended period of time. 

We have outrecruited Washington the last few years based on rankings.  But Washington has been 6th in their conference (which showed vs USC) whereas we are 10th or 11th in the SEC. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on December 08, 2016, 12:07:24 pm
Depends on what programs.  This thread seemed to be more to our situation in the SEC. 

It is rare to have a program who doesn't recruit well (rankings) compared to its conference competition win a lot of games especially over an extended period of time. 

We have outrecruited Washington the last few years based on rankings.  But Washington has been 6th in their conference (which showed vs USC) whereas we are 10th or 11th in the SEC.
No doubt this was based on our situation in the SEC. My thing is this. Do I expect us to be world beaters in the SEC, especially the West? No. But I do expect us to at least look like we know what we're doing and to be competitive. And sometimes we look like we don't have a clue what we're doing and in a lot of cases we look like we quit. That's coaching.

That's all I'm saying. We can at least look like we know what we're doing and fight until the final whistle. #NeverQuit. I believe a lot of people are using this recruiting thing as a crutch or an excuse. It is what it is. We play in the best division in college football. We have to either sink, swim, or go to another conference.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Quote from: oldman1015 on December 08, 2016, 11:00:36 am
It's both
Its absolutely both. A school like Arkansas with average talent going against a team with superior talent like LSU nad Auburn need great coaches. According to the blowout losses this year, we do not have great coaches, not across the board anyway. Weak links need to be addressed on the field AND on the sideline
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on December 08, 2016, 12:21:32 pm
Its absolutely both. A school like Arkansas with average talent going against a team with superior talent like LSU nad Auburn need great coaches. According to the blowout losses this year, we do not have great coaches, not across the board anyway. Weak links need to be addressed on the field AND on the sideline
+1, This is all I'm saying. Not trying to bash anybody except maybe Robb Smith. ;)
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 12:18:20 pm
No doubt this was based on our situation in the SEC. My thing is this. Do I expect us to be world beaters in the SEC, especially the West? No. But I do expect us to at least look like we know what we're doing and to be competitive. And sometimes we look like we don't have a clue what we're doing and in a lot of cases we look like we quit. That's coaching.

That's all I'm saying. We can at least look like we know what we're doing and fight until the final whistle. #NeverQuit. I believe a lot of people are using this recruiting thing as a crutch or an excuse. It is what it is. We play in the best division in college football. We have to either sink, swim, or go to another conference.

The AU game.  It sticks out.  I don't believe the quit accusation goes for an extended time. 

It isn't a crutch or an excuse.  Just a view of what we are facing.

Our problem is defense.  It would be interesting if someone took the time to rank classes just by defensive signees. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

hogsanity

It is hard to believe there are people who still think excellent coaching is going to overcome having inferior talent week after week. Yes, now and then a coach is going to out scheme a better team, but 90%+ of the time the team with the better talent is going to win the game. And I am not talking offense to offense. If your offensive guys are not as good as the opponents D or your D is not as good as their O you are going to lose more times than not, I do not care who the coach is.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

311Hog

So agree with this, but i wanted to also say YES coaching matters but GREAT coaches are even more rare than GREAT players.

Think about this for a second there are exactly TWO bonified Hall of fame Coaches in the college game today (Meyer and Saban) everyone else is flawed.

So if Saban and Meyer the two best coaches in college football get 90% of the games best talent exactly what chance does that leave for the rest ?

 

Adam Stokes

I think an interesting stat would be to look at the number of 4/5-stars on each roster and see where their team ranks in the Top 25. Would take way too longer to put together, but feel it would essentially tell the same story, aside from the Western Michigan's of the world.

Danny J

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on December 08, 2016, 12:21:32 pm
Its absolutely both. A school like Arkansas with average talent going against a team with superior talent like LSU nad Auburn need great coaches. According to the blowout losses this year, we do not have great coaches, not across the board anyway. Weak links need to be addressed on the field AND on the sideline
Agree...average talent + average coaching = average results...usually...on average


Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Adam Stokes on December 08, 2016, 12:48:15 pm
I think an interesting stat would be to look at the number of 4/5-stars on each roster and see where their team ranks in the Top 25. Would take way too longer to put together, but feel it would essentially tell the same story, aside from the Western Michigan's of the world.

You also have to compare it to the teams each played.  Without looking we know 4 of our 5 losses came to programs who outrecruited us(not excusing how the losses happened - no need to derail).  I doubt Penn St played 5 programs who outrecruited them in the rankings. 

I haven't looked at it in a few years but when you compare 4 and 5 star defensive talent by state and signed by each program it tells an even bigger story for us.  The numbers were something like 65 4 and 5 stars from La over a 10 year or so period vs 5 from the state of Arkansas. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Youngsta71701

December 08, 2016, 01:38:07 pm #27 Last Edit: December 08, 2016, 01:49:13 pm by Youngsta71701
Quote from: hogsanity on December 08, 2016, 12:41:16 pm
It is hard to believe there are people who still think excellent coaching is going to overcome having inferior talent week after week. Yes, now and then a coach is going to out scheme a better team, but 90%+ of the time the team with the better talent is going to win the game. And I am not talking offense to offense. If your offensive guys are not as good as the opponents D or your D is not as good as their O you are going to lose more times than not, I do not care who the coach is.
So why does our offense look so much better than our defense? Are you saying that we have offensive talent that is on par or better with the defensive talent of the other SEC teams that we play? I mean we even put up 30 points against that vaunted Alabama defense. ??? And we did this with a patchwork offensive line. Except for our center of course. And even he was just a 3-star.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

hogsanity

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 01:38:07 pm
So why does our offense look so much better than our defense? Are you saying that we have offensive talent that is on par or better than the defensive talent of the other SEC teams that we play? I mean we even put up 30 points against that vaunted Alabama defense. ??? And we did this with a horrible offensive line. Except for our center of course. And even he was just a 3-star.

You need both a good offense and a good defense to win consistently. But yes, in a couple cases ( old misses and FLa ) the Hogs offense provided sever matchup problems for their D ( old misses D was bad against the run, and FLA was just beat up when they came to Fay ).

Oh and our defense was especially bad.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Youngsta71701

To me it's simple. If we had a DC that was on par or better than our OC we would have easily won two more games this year. (Texas A&M and Missouri)And before someone brings up the offense in the 2nd half of the Missouri game and the red-zone issues and offense in the Texas A&M game. I put the A&M loss on questionable coaching decisions in the red-zone and the Missouri loss on questionable coaching decisions and poor QB decisions in the red-zone.

Carry on...
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

Quote from: hogsanity on December 08, 2016, 12:41:16 pm
It is hard to believe there are people who still think excellent coaching is going to overcome having inferior talent week after week. Yes, now and then a coach is going to out scheme a better team, but 90%+ of the time the team with the better talent is going to win the game. And I am not talking offense to offense. If your offensive guys are not as good as the opponents D or your D is not as good as their O you are going to lose more times than not, I do not care who the coach is.
Vanderbilt. They have The SEC's tackles leader and one of the best defenses in the conference in spite of their inability to find great players that can qualify at their school. Derek Mason has taken over the defenses and shown what a great coach can do with average players. A great coach can turn a 2* (like jj watt) into an all star
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

Boss Hog in the Arkansas

 If you have coaches that excel at player development, your recruiting classes honestly wont matter that much. Those guys would sit on the bench for a couple years while learning and by their junior/senior year would look like 4* studs.
That's right, you don't want to be the man to replace the man.  You want to be the man to replace Rory Segrest.

311Hog

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on December 08, 2016, 01:50:17 pm
Vanderbilt. They have The SEC's tackles leader and one of the best defenses in the conference in spite of their inability to find great players that can qualify at their school. Derek Mason has taken over the defenses and shown what a great coach can do with average players. A great coach can turn a 2* (like jj watt) into an all star

And vandy has what record again?

this is all about statistical probability.    Great coach + avg talent + work ethic/intangibles you probably get an 8 win team.  Great Coach + Great talent + work either/intangibles you get a national title contender

The problem lies in the rarity or scarcity of the valuable resource.  There are only so many 5 stars and elite coaches as i said before Meyer and Saban (well rounded coaches or great at getting the right assistant coach) ain't walking through that door.

And i think some people just cannot get their head around these facts.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: hogsanity on December 08, 2016, 01:42:43 pm
You need both a good offense and a good defense to win consistently. But yes, in a couple cases ( old misses and FLa ) the Hogs offense provided sever matchup problems for their D ( old misses D was bad against the run, and FLA was just beat up when they came to Fay ).

Oh and our defense was especially bad.
I give credit where it's due. Our defense did play like I know they could play against Florida. But where was the consistency all year long? Did I expect them to play defense like they did against Florida every game. No. But I did expect them to play consistently better than they did. Especially with 9 returning starters. What I seen was players out of position to make plays the majority of the time before the ball was even snapped. Starting with the D-line and OLB's not doing something as simple as sealing the edge and keeping the edge on most running plays. The coaches have to put these kids in position to make plays. Then if they don't make the plays it's on them and if you know anything about football you can tell which one is which. But you at least have to be in position first and if you get out of position it's on you.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

Youngsta71701

December 08, 2016, 02:00:25 pm #34 Last Edit: December 12, 2016, 10:23:20 am by Youngsta71701
Quote from: 311Hog on December 08, 2016, 01:54:16 pm
And vandy has what record again?

this is all about statistical probability.    Great coach + avg talent + work ethic/intangibles you probably get an 8 win team.  Great Coach + Great talent + work either/intangibles you get a national title contender

The problem lies in the rarity or scarcity of the valuable resource.  There are only so many 5 stars and elite coaches as i said before Meyer and Saban (well rounded coaches or great at getting the right assistant coach) ain't walking through that door.

And i think some people just cannot get their head around these facts.
1 game worse than ours. But if we had their defense there's no telling how much better our record would be.

I got two questions for ya.

Do you think Coach Enos is a good OC right now?
Do you think Coach Smith is a good DC right now?
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

311Hog

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on December 08, 2016, 02:00:25 pm
1 game worse than ours. But if we had the defense there's no telling how much better our record would be.

I got two questions for ya.

Do you think Coach Enos is a good OC right now?
Do you think Coach Smith is a good DC right now?

But you are missing the point. This isn't jigsaw puzzle you cannot mix and match pieces and expect them to exceed previous pieces output just because you want it to.

I believe Eno's has a done a good job, i believe Smith should be replaced but neither is my point.

The key indisputable ingredients for "winning at a championship level" are 5 star players and elite coaches.  both of which there are very very very few of, so what i am saying is the "known"Head coaches that can either fill the role of elite OC and/or DC or find/develop the elite DC/OC  have jobs and are not coming to coach at Arkansas.  These are the Saban and the Meyer.

What does this mean? this means we have NO CHOICE, but to "hope" that some "unknown" coach appears or an existing coach "raises his game to another level" to join the ranks of the Saban's and the Meyer's.

And that is long odds my friend.

So lets say we fire Smith and replace with say Rhoads do you think that will have a "major" impact on the defense? or we go out and find some other puzzle piece and hope for the best? at this point virtually no coach on this staff has let much grass grow under their feet save for Beilema himself.  I for one hoped that there was some changes made to the defense because that is where the deficit exists. You are absolutely correct in that if our defense was even 10% better we would be at least 2 wins better maybe even more because the last 2 years our Offense has been really good. (special teams is also an eye sore save our punter but i digress).


seasonhog

Quote from: Michael D Huff AIA on December 08, 2016, 09:46:19 am
I appreciate the discussion on my last thread about the win/loss records of previous coaches.

Several years ago I looked into the effects recruiting has on BCS/Playoff participation.  Who does less with more or more with less?  I only tracked through the top 50 schools.  If you have the #63 recruiting class, well, great.  I picked this list up again recently and here it is.

This is what I found, and within these numbers you can see the rise of not just the SEC, but the SEC West.
Note:  All averages rounded to once decimal.

Teams         02      03      04     05     06     07     08     09     10     11     12     13     14     15     16

East
Tennessee       2        18      14      4      23      3      35      10    9      13     17     21      5      5       15       
Georgia           3        6        6       10     4       9       7        6     15     5      12     12      7      7       11
South Car.       11      8        24     23     24      6      22      12    24    18     19     16      16    19      27
Florida             20      2        7       15     2       1       3       11    2      12     3       4        8     23      14
Kentucky          NR     NR     35      NR    36     NR     NR     41    50    NR    NR    29      17    36      29
Vanderbilt        NR     NR     NR     NR    NR     NR     NR     NR    NR   NR    29     19      49    47     NR
Missouri            -        -        -        -       -         -       -        -       -      -      31     41      34    27     47
Best 4 avg.      9.0     8.5     12.8   13    13.3   4.8    16.8   9.8   12.5  12    12.8  18      9.0   13.5   16.8

West
Auburn            6        11      23     13     10      7       20     19    4      7      10      9       9       6       9
LSU                 15      1        2       22     7       4       11      2     6      6      18      6       2       8       5
Miss. St.          17      9        NR     33     46     39     44      25    38    44    30      26     37     16     25
Arkansas         27      29       16     24     27     31     36      16    49    24    34      27     29     25     32
Alabama         30      49       15     18     11     10      1       1      5      1      1       1       1       2       1
Ole Miss          33      38       29     30     15     27      29     18    18    19    40      7       19     21      8
TAMU               -         -        -        -       -        -        -       -       -      -      15     11      6      10      16
Best 4 avg.     16.3    12.5    14     19.3  10.8   12     15.3   9.3  8.3    8.3   11     5.8    4.5    6.5     5.8

Things I noticed:
1.  The Saban Effect.  Damn.
2.  The West has had better recruiting than the East for 9 consecutive years (using the best 4 classes on each side).  The East had better classes every year in this list but one.
3.  In '14 and '15 ALL the SEC teams had recruiting classes in the Top 50.  Even Vandy.
4.  The largest difference between the two divisions is the class of '13, which just so happen to be seniors now.
5.  Arkansas is the only team in the SEC West that has not had a class in the Top 10 in this sample, regardless of coach.  (Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the East)
6.  Arkansas' average all time is 28.4.  CBB's is 28.25.  Petrino had 31.25.  Nutt had 25.67.  As we saw with the win/loss post, CBB had a lot more competition now than Nutt did in his tenure.

Enjoy.


Prove one thing.........It's the COACHING.

code red

Recruiting is the single most important aspect of winning in college football.  Time to move on.
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today."  Dr. Lou

thefisher

Quote from: Michael D Huff AIA on December 08, 2016, 09:46:19 am
I appreciate the discussion on my last thread about the win/loss records of previous coaches.

I appreciate it whenever a person actually gets the facts instead of just spouting opinions.  Good work & thanks.

I did have a question.  Those rankings are not from 247Sports.  What service did you get the numbers from?
I miss the smell of the mud, grass, and sweat of the practice field. I miss blood oozing down your arm from the rip in your skin that was slashed on a guys helmet as you punked him at the line of scrimmage and put his dobber in the dirt.

12247

It is correct that great players will beat good players most of the time.  But even more correct that great coaching will best poor or average coaching most of the time.  I honestly believe BAMA and Arkansas could exchange squads right now and Saban and staff with our players would beat BB and staff with BAMA's players next year at BAMA.  While our coach may know lots about Xs & Os, he is not getting it across to the players and he is not leading the assistants to greatness.  Remember these are his handpicked Guys coaching this team.  Saban puts on a clinic each week on how to coach a football team.  Get involved, coach and teach every play, every move, every assistant and every player.  You can tell that every detail is taught, coached, practiced and then gone over again.  Saban expects each player to know and do his part, every player.  Hell, we don't likely know the names of the players that don't start or at least it looks that way.

hawganatic

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on December 08, 2016, 01:52:08 pm
If you have coaches that excel at player development, your recruiting classes honestly wont matter that much. Those guys would sit on the bench for a couple years while learning and by their junior/senior year would look like 4* studs.

Those guys would sit on the bench and look great after several years of work and being taught, but then you have to follow that up with several more classes to build the depth needed to win.

Most fans/programs don't have the patience for that.

Torqued pork

Quote from: Boss Hog in the Arkansas on December 08, 2016, 01:52:08 pm
If you have coaches that excel at player development, your recruiting classes honestly wont matter that much. Those guys would sit on the bench for a couple years while learning and by their junior/senior year would look like 4* studs.
The problem with this is schools that bring in highly rated classes know how to develop players, too. Simply trying to play catch-up through player development sounds wonderful, but fails more often than it succeeds. Even Bielema probably doubts it will work here, but he has to sell something to fans and recruits.

Hawghiggs

Quote from: code red on December 08, 2016, 03:27:48 pm
Recruiting is the single most important aspect of winning in college football.  Time to move on.

Define move on?

The_Iceman


Atlhogfan1

Quote from: 12247 on December 08, 2016, 09:04:50 pm
It is correct that great players will beat good players most of the time.  But even more correct that great coaching will best poor or average coaching most of the time.  I honestly believe BAMA and Arkansas could exchange squads right now and Saban and staff with our players would beat BB and staff with BAMA's players next year at BAMA.  While our coach may know lots about Xs & Os, he is not getting it across to the players and he is not leading the assistants to greatness.  Remember these are his handpicked Guys coaching this team.  Saban puts on a clinic each week on how to coach a football team.  Get involved, coach and teach every play, every move, every assistant and every player.  You can tell that every detail is taught, coached, practiced and then gone over again.  Saban expects each player to know and do his part, every player.  Hell, we don't likely know the names of the players that don't start or at least it looks that way.

Dumb.

And Saban doesn't.  His teams don't play at their best every game.  He makes mistakes as does his team. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

311Hog

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on December 09, 2016, 08:17:31 am
Dumb.

And Saban doesn't.  His teams don't play at their best every game.  He makes mistakes as does his team. 

I do not think anyone is saying Saban and his players are perfect and without mistakes.  The point is that they and he are so clearly head and shoulders above his peers it is kind of ridiculous at this point.

As i said before IMHO there are only two coaches in the college game that could "go anywhere" and build a national champion power house, sure if you put them into a "blue blood" school with unlimited resources and infinite tradition it makes that job that much easier (and no i do not think what they are doing is easy).  They are Saban and Meyer.

hogsanity

Quote from: 311Hog on December 09, 2016, 09:33:09 am
I do not think anyone is saying Saban and his players are perfect and without mistakes.  The point is that they and he are so clearly head and shoulders above his peers it is kind of ridiculous at this point.

As i said before IMHO there are only two coaches in the college game that could "go anywhere" and build a national champion power house, sure if you put them into a "blue blood" school with unlimited resources and infinite tradition it makes that job that much easier (and no i do not think what they are doing is easy).  They are Saban and Meyer.

Nick Saban could not go to Ball St and build a National Champion power house
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: 311Hog on December 09, 2016, 09:33:09 am
I do not think anyone is saying Saban and his players are perfect and without mistakes.  The point is that they and he are so clearly head and shoulders above his peers it is kind of ridiculous at this point.

As i said before IMHO there are only two coaches in the college game that could "go anywhere" and build a national champion power house, sure if you put them into a "blue blood" school with unlimited resources and infinite tradition it makes that job that much easier (and no i do not think what they are doing is easy).  They are Saban and Meyer.

As a program builder he is.  No way either could do it at Arkansas or Mizzou or Kansas, K St, Ok St, Iowa, Iowa St, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or the vast majority of college football programs.  A minority % of programs have that possibility.  Arkansas is far from one of them.  They probably could build an SEC Ch team or at least a real contender.  A team.  That isn't a powerhouse.  This isn't college basketball. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

311Hog

Quote from: hogsanity on December 09, 2016, 09:35:52 am
Nick Saban could not go to Ball St and build a National Champion power house

You know at first i laughed when i saw this reply and thought yeah Hogsanity maybe right but then i could almost hear the ESPiN talking heads.

When Saban or Meyer had Ball State undefeated and getting/winning their group of 6 bowl game.  The first time Saban/Meyer led Ball State team beat a "Power 5 contender" in a New Years day bowl it would seal the deal and they would put them into the NC play off mix if they went undefeated again the next year.

Sure it is highly unlikely because Ball State wouldnt have the $$ or the facilities to lure someone like Saban/Meyer away that is also kind of my point.  Bama and OSU are the "apex" of college football royalty IMHO there only exists a handful of programs that could possibly produce the kind of $$$ challenge to lure them away and until time finally takes them out of the equation they are the gold standard IMHO.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: 311Hog on December 09, 2016, 09:45:15 am
You know at first i laughed when i saw this reply and thought yeah Hogsanity maybe right but then i could almost hear the ESPiN talking heads.

When Saban or Meyer had Ball State undefeated and getting/winning their group of 6 bowl game.  The first time Saban/Meyer led Ball State team beat a "Power 5 contender" in a New Years day bowl it would seal the deal and they would put them into the NC play off mix if they went undefeated again the next year.

Sure it is highly unlikely because Ball State wouldnt have the $$ or the facilities to lure someone like Saban/Meyer away that is also kind of my point.  Bama and OSU are the "apex" of college football royalty IMHO there only exists a handful of programs that could possibly produce the kind of $$$ challenge to lure them away and until time finally takes them out of the equation they are the gold standard IMHO.

What makes Saban great is he can handpick players for his defense.  More than recruit.  He finds who he wants and selects them.  To get to that point, he had to recruit well early on which can be done to LSU or Bama on the defensive side.  He could get the players to run his 3-4 with big physical DBs who can cover(while holding) early to start winning and start rolling. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys.