NUTT - PETRINO - SMITH - BIELEMA BY THE NUMBERS

[Michael D Huff AIA]

A lot of talk has been going around about how "CBB is like Nutt" and "Petrino should still be here" and the like.  I thought I'd do some investigation and see how these coaches are different / same, and maybe I'd learn a thing or two.  I threw out the Smith year - nobody wants to remember that one.

Coach          Games     Record     Pct.         Conf. W/L   Pct.          record vs. Top 25      % games vs. a Top 25 team     W/L vs. Top 25 in SEC

Nutt              123       75/48       .610         42/38        .525                15/27     .357           42/123   .359                      13/21   .382
Petrino          51         34/17       .667         17/15        .531                10/12     .455           22/51     .431                       8/10   .444
Bielema         50         25/25       .500         10/22        .313                 8/17     .320           25/50     .500                        7/18   .280

NOTE:  "% games vs. a Top 25 team" means the number of times each coach had the opportunity to play a ranked opponent in his tenure. 

What I've noticed:

1.  The frequency in which we have played ranked opponents.  That number has gone up pretty dramatically to the point that CBB has faced a ranked opponent half of the time we have played.  CBB has three less games vs a ranked SEC opponent in 4 seasons than Nutt had in 10. 

2.  Our quality of opponents is going up.  These three coaches have combined to go 28/49 (.363) vs. ranked SEC opponents.

3.  In 2014 we played 8 ranked opponents. (3-5)  In 2003 we played 2.  (1-1)

4.  Nutt wasn't the best coach on earth, but he beat up on non-ranked conference opponents.

5.  The SEC is hard.  The National Champion came from the SEC 10 times since 1998 (10/18 years - this season isn't decided yet)

What do you see in these numbers?

[go hogues]

One thing I see is that despite my ill feelings toward Nutt, he didn't leave Petrino in nearly as bad of shape, roster wise, as Petrino/Smith left Bielema. That 2008 class that David "Ladders" Lee gave us was the spark plug for Petrino's run at Arkansas. That was probably the best in-state class in the last 16 years.

That said, Bielema's recruiting is not great and there is certainly not much to gawk at in this year's class. With that record and poor recruiting, it's going to be hard for him to survive after his contract ends in two years.

[Sir Oinksalot]

...where's 'da slap?

And I'm no Bobby fan anymore but his first year he had next to nothing...
Texas ran us off the field.

[Piggfoot]

I've said this numerous times. The good years have come following good to great Arkansas high school classes. The Coached have lived and died on this.
This is particularly true with offensive players. That's what Arkansas produces because the better players want to be offensive players in Arkansas. Looking at stats is nothing more than mental masturbation.

[LRrazorback]

One thing I see is that despite my ill feelings toward Nutt, he didn't leave Petrino in nearly as bad of shape, roster wise, as Petrino/Smith left Bielema. That 2008 class that David "Ladders" Lee gave us was the spark plug for Petrino's run at Arkansas. That was probably the best in-state class in the last 16 years.

That said, Bielema's recruiting is not great and there is certainly not much to gawk at in this year's class. With that record and poor recruiting, it's going to be hard for him to survive after his contract ends in two years.

STOP THIS!
This line of thinking is totally wrong. I commented on this last week or two. The idea that CBP was set up for success is wrong.  Look at the number of draft picks in CBP first three years, not recruited by his staff. He barely had any draft picks that HDN recruited. Not to mention he completely changed an offense that for ten years been heavy run oriented.  Not to mention, Joe Adams was going to USC before CBP got here, Jarious Wright was going to TX tech, Ryan Mallet wasn't going to transfer to AR and Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa. He had to rerecruit all these guys.

[EastexHawg]

STOP THIS!
This line of thinking is totally wrong. I commented on this last week or two. The idea that CBP was set up for success is wrong.  Look at the number of draft picks in CBP first three years, not recruited by his staff. He barely had any draft picks that HDN recruited. Not to mention he completely changed an offense that for ten years been heavy run oriented.  Not to mention, Joe Adams was going to USC before CBP got here, Jarious Wright was going to TX tech, Ryan Mallet wasn't going to transfer to AR and Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa. He had to rerecruit all these guys.

Does...not...fit...accepted...narrative. 

If we are going to continue propagating the idea that Arkansas cannot be expected to be one of the upper tier SEC teams, and that even if it did ever happen it would take 5-6 years to put together the team and...most of all...almost unfathomable LUCK, these types of dangerous thoughts cannot be spread.

[Hogwild]

NOTE:  "% games vs. a Top 25 team" means the number of times each coach had the opportunity to play a ranked opponent in his tenure.

Curious is the ranking at the time of when the game is being played or at the end of the season?  Does A&M, TCU, & Ole Miss, combined 19-17, count has playing 3 ranked teams this year?

[niels_boar]

Nutt was handed a contender.  Not true for CBB or Petrino.  Also, playing such a high frequency of quality opponents makes it more difficult to have the same winning percentage against those opponents for various reasons.  For instance, you can't coast for a couple of weeks and target certain games.  A weekly grind adds wear and tear to the staff and players as the season progresses.  Likewise, the top-25 opponents that CBB is facing include multiple NC contenders every year.  During Nutt's tenure the power was largely in the East.

[Sooie71923]

Aside from the instate talent CBPs 1st year, all coaches have "recruited poorly".

Maybe it's time for some of you to realize it's not the coaches recruiting poorly, it's just that the upper level talent doesn't want to come to Arkansas.  I'll never understand why a coach gets blamed or credited for being a poor/"ace" recruiter when 90% or better of recruiting success is determined by the school that they're recruiting to.

[itshogsbaby]

1.  The frequency in which we have played ranked opponents.  That number has gone up pretty dramatically to the point that CBB has faced a ranked opponent half of the time we have played.  CBB has three less games vs a ranked SEC opponent in 4 seasons than Nutt had in 10. 

Absolutely love the research!  Great post with great numbers.  From what you posted, CBB has faced 25 Ranked SEC opponents versus Nutt facing 34 ranked SEC opponents (difference of 9, not 3). 

[LZH]

Aside from the instate talent CBPs 1st year, all coaches have "recruited poorly".

Maybe it's time for some of you to realize it's not the coaches recruiting poorly, it's just that the upper level talent doesn't want to come to Arkansas.  I'll never understand why a coach gets blamed or credited for being a poor/"ace" recruiter when 90% or better of recruiting success is determined by the school that they're recruiting to.

So Mike Shula had the same talent as Saban does?

[Piggfoot]

STOP THIS!
This line of thinking is totally wrong. I commented on this last week or two. The idea that CBP was set up for success is wrong.  Look at the number of draft picks in CBP first three years, not recruited by his staff. He barely had any draft picks that HDN recruited. Not to mention he completely changed an offense that for ten years been heavy run oriented.  Not to mention, Joe Adams was going to USC before CBP got here, Jarious Wright was going to TX tech, Ryan Mallet wasn't going to transfer to AR and Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa. He had to rerecruit all these guys.

Think what you will. Tim Horton did the recruiting. Those players came because Nutt was gone. Not necessarily because of Petrino. However his reputation as a balance offense coach swayed their decision.

[Sportster365]

Petrino left this program with Tyler Wilson, Kniles Davis and Colby Hamilton.  Brandon Allen, Jonathan Williams, Jevontee Herndon (5/6 are all still playing in the NFL)

If anyone's to blame for the failures in 2012 and 2013 then it would be Jeff Long.  But I personally don't fault Long for bringing in Smith. The entire idea made complete sense considering the circumstances.

You can't say on one hand that Petrino benefitted from some really good recruiting classes then on the other accuse him of leaving the cupboard bare.

[NuttinItUp]

What about a comparison of years 3 & 4 for each coach? (to get past the discussion on whether they were left with a bare cupboard)

[Sportster365]

Aside from the instate talent CBPs 1st year, all coaches have "recruited poorly".

Maybe it's time for some of you to realize it's not the coaches recruiting poorly, it's just that the upper level talent doesn't want to come to Arkansas.  I'll never understand why a coach gets blamed or credited for being a poor/"ace" recruiter when 90% or better of recruiting success is determined by the school that they're recruiting to.

Petrino's average recruiting ranking here at Arkansas was around 25. 

[EastexHawg]

Curious is the ranking at the time of when the game is being played or at the end of the season?  Does A&M, TCU, & Ole Miss, combined 19-17, count has playing 3 ranked teams this year?

Excellent question.  TCU and Ole Miss were extremely overrated and turned out to be mediocre at best, downright bad at worst.

[Hogwild]

In 2003 we played 2.  (1-1)

LSU (#1), Texas (#11), Ole Miss (#14) and Florida (#25)  all finished ranked in both the AP & Coaches Poll.

[Sportster365]

Think what you will. Tim Horton did the recruiting. Those players came because Nutt was gone. Not necessarily because of Petrino. However his reputation as a balance offense coach swayed their decision.

You don't even believe the stuff you post do you? So what was it, were they coming because Nutt was gone or Petrino's reputation for high octane offenses?  As previously stated many of those guys were signing with other schools and had already signed some place else. Arkansas would have missed out on them if it hadn't been for the coach.

[go hogues]

Petrino left this program with Tyler Wilson, Kniles Davis and Colby Hamilton.  Brandon Allen, Jonathan Williams, Jevontee Herndon (5/6 are all still playing in the NFL)

Good gracious. Still?

KNILE DAVIS
COBI HAMILTON

[hawgsalot]

You don't even believe the stuff you post do you? So what was it, were they coming because Nutt was gone or Petrino's reputation for high octane offenses?  As previously stated many of those guys were signing with other schools and had already signed some place else. Arkansas would have missed out on them if it hadn't been for the coach.

I don't know of any signed some place else, I do remember Joe switching from USC and the Philon gift, what else am I forgetting?

[HF#1]

Bielema has coached Arkansas through perhaps the 4 most brutal schedules a coach could have in 4 years.

[Sportster365]

Bielema has coached Arkansas through perhaps the 4 most brutal schedules a coach could have in 4 years.

now you're feeling sorry for him. So did Dan Mullen, Hugh Freeze, Kevin Sumlin, Gus Malzahn, Les Miles/Orgeron and Nick Saban.

All of those coaches have had some semblance of success in the past 4 years and have had to face the same set of difficulties.

[depressed_fan]

People put all kinds of Nutt vs Petrino vs Bielema numbers on here all the time. Dan Ford could be included in that too.  Petrino was the best teacher and technician of football. He was sort of a flash in the pan though. When he enters years 5 , 6, 7 at Louisville we can see how he does with his own players. At arkansas he won with Nutts upperclassmen. petrino didn't leave Bielema anywhere near the upperclassmen quality Nutt left him.

I think 50 years from now we can look back and say Nutt was by far the best we could have ever hoped for.

[HF#1]

now you're feeling sorry for him. So did Dan Mullen, Hugh Freeze, Kevin Sumlin, Gus Malzahn, Les Miles/Orgeron and Nick Saban.

All of those coaches have had some semblance of success in the past 4 years and have had to face the same set of difficulties.

I was pointing out a simple fact. I don't feel sorry for him. I didn't force him to come to Arkansas.

[PorkSoda]

One thing I see is that despite my ill feelings toward Nutt, he didn't leave Petrino in nearly as bad of shape, roster wise, as Petrino/Smith left Bielema. That 2008 class that David "Ladders" Lee gave us was the spark plug for Petrino's run at Arkansas. That was probably the best in-state class in the last 16 years.

That said, Bielema's recruiting is not great and there is certainly not much to gawk at in this year's class. With that record and poor recruiting, it's going to be hard for him to survive after his contract ends in two years.

I credit that class to horton over nutt, lee, or petrino.

[al_pigcino]

It felt like CBP had almost 20 WR on the roster.  It's a lot easier to get the star rankings with skill players than with OL.  I could be off balance here but I'd say a majority of CBP's rankings came in the form of skill players, where CBB seems to get his from linemen and RB's (which are usually highly ranked as well).

[Hogwild]

now you're feeling sorry for him. So did Dan Mullen, Hugh Freeze, Kevin Sumlin, Gus Malzahn, Les Miles/Orgeron and Nick Saban.

All of those coaches have had some semblance of success in the past 4 years and have had to face the same set of difficulties.

Every team in the SEC West, aside from us,  has been in the top 4 of the CFP rankings in the past three seasons.

[Sportster365]

People put all kinds of Nutt vs Petrino vs Bielema numbers on here all the time. Dan Ford could be included in that too.  Petrino was the best teacher and technician of football. He was sort of a flash in the pan though. When he enters years 5 , 6, 7 at Louisville we can see how he does with his own players. At arkansas he won with Nutts upperclassmen. petrino didn't leave Bielema anywhere near the upperclassmen quality Nutt left him.

I think 50 years from now we can look back and say Nutt was by far the best we could have ever hoped for.

This guy wins at every place he goes with all types of players. Some his, some from other staffs and yet some of you still question his longevity. Flashes in the pan cannot sustain this type of consistency. .

[al_pigcino]

This guy wins at every place he goes with all types of players. Some his, some from other staffs and yet some of you still question his longevity. Flashes in the pan cannot sustain this type of consistency. .

Why wouldn't you question?  Where has he shown he can sustain success at a long term?  He's in the same league as Malzhan. 

[colbs]

Petrino left this program with Tyler Wilson, Kniles Davis and Colby Hamilton.  Brandon Allen, Jonathan Williams, Jevontee Herndon (5/6 are all still playing in the NFL)

If anyone's to blame for the failures in 2012 and 2013 then it would be Jeff Long.  But I personally don't fault Long for bringing in Smith. The entire idea made complete sense considering the circumstances.

You can't say on one hand that Petrino benefitted from some really good recruiting classes then on the other accuse him of leaving the cupboard bare.

I think the difference is the last 2 BP classes there were a lot of players that left the program or didn't pan out.  Add that onto the JLS year and possibly the SEC being at in all time high, it's an uphill battle. 

BP's first year he inherited a team that lost most of it's production from year's prior.  It was rebuild but was different that what BB inherited.  The 2008 class was probably the deepest Arkansas class in a long time, I think they signed 15 instate players(compare that to 4 this year that are committed).  Now I give him credit for getting to all sign.  Most where already committed except Joe Adams and Tyler Wilson.  I also think Jarius was looking around at the time.  The SEC was pretty top heavy in 2010 & 2011 but the middle & bottom of the conference were not all that great.  So it was a little easier to rise up in the west. 

I am not trying to knock what BP did here but not every situation is equal.  There is no doubt that BB hasn't came close to doing what BP done here but the road was easier for BP.  You can deny it all you want but it's the truth.  I am not sure BP would have improved from the 2010 & 2011 success(which is fine I am okay with 9-11 win seasons).  He usually beat the teams he was suppose to and lost to the better teams. 

[colbs]

This guy wins at every place he goes with all types of players. Some his, some from other staffs and yet some of you still question his longevity. Flashes in the pan cannot sustain this type of consistency. .

I think it's because he hasn't been anywhere longer than 4 years.

[depressed_fan]

This guy wins at every place he goes with all types of players. Some his, some from other staffs and yet some of you still question his longevity. Flashes in the pan cannot sustain this type of consistency. .

I want to see him win with all his players years five six and/or seven. Or just see what he can do. If he can maintain 8-4 where he is, I would say he's doing a good job. But it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't dip to 5-7 level.

[Gonzo]

At arkansas he won with Nutts upperclassmen. petrino didn't leave Bielema anywhere near the upperclassmen quality Nutt left him.

Perhaps you'd like to explain then why his best years at Arkansas were years 3 & 4, when any upperclassmen left from Nutt were gone and the bulk (over 70% and rising) of the starters and two-deep (I've delineated this before but don't care to go dig it up again right now) were BP recruits.


Go Hogs!

[GuvHog]

I think the difference is the last 2 BP classes there were a lot of players that left the program or didn't pan out.  Add that onto the JLS year and possibly the SEC being at in all time high, it's an uphill battle. 

BP's first year he inherited a team that lost most of it's production from year's prior.  It was rebuild but was different that what BB inherited.  The 2008 class was probably the deepest Arkansas class in a long time, I think they signed 15 instate players(compare that to 4 this year that are committed).  Now I give him credit for getting to all sign.  Most where already committed except Joe Adams and Tyler Wilson.  I also think Jarius was looking around at the time.  The SEC was pretty top heavy in 2010 & 2011 but the middle & bottom of the conference were not all that great.  So it was a little easier to rise up in the west. 

I am not trying to knock what BP did here but not every situation is equal.  There is no doubt that BB hasn't came close to doing what BP done here but the road was easier for BP.  You can deny it all you want but it's the truth.  I am not sure BP would have improved from the 2010 & 2011 success(which is fine I am okay with 9-11 win seasons).  He usually beat the teams he was suppose to and lost to the better teams. 

For the record, the only SEC West team that CBP's Hog teams never beat was Bama. He had at least 2 or more wins against every other SEC West team (I realize that A&M wasn't in the SEC West back then).

[GuvHog]

Why wouldn't you question?  Where has he shown he can sustain success at a long term?  He's in the same league as Malzhan. 

Oh come on!! Malzahn isn't worthy enough to even tie Bobby Petrino's shoes!

[GuvHog]

Think what you will. Tim Horton did the recruiting. Those players came because Nutt was gone. Not necessarily because of Petrino. However his reputation as a balance offense coach swayed their decision.

Tim did do some recruiting but they came because of Bobby Petrino.

[DeltaBoy]

Tim was one of the Best Recruiters we had.

[colbs]

For the record, the only SEC West team that CBP's Hog teams never beat was Bama. He had at least 2 or more wins against every other SEC West team (I realize that A&M wasn't in the SEC West back then).

The years that he beat Ole Miss, MSU, and Texas A&M they weren't good.  Auburn was middle of the pack or worse besides 2010.  I give him credit he beat the team's he was suppose to.  I just don't think he's as elite as some of you think.  He's a good coach, but I'm not sure a great coach.  He just hasn't taken that next step yet.

[GuvHog]

The years that he beat Ole Miss, MSU, and Texas A&M they weren't good.  Auburn was middle of the pack or worse besides 2010.  I give him credit he beat the team's he was suppose to.  I just don't think he's as elite as some of you think.  He's a good coach, but I'm not sure a great coach.  He just hasn't taken that next step yet.

He went from having to rebuild the program to a top 5 finish in 4 years. Only great coaches can do that. Elite?? No Bobby isn't elite, I'd describe Nick Saban as Elite and he's earned that description.

[colbs]

He went from having to rebuild the program to a top 5 finish in 4 years. Only great coaches can do that. Elite?? No Bobby isn't elite, I'd describe Nick Saban as Elite and he's earned that description.

I think he's borderline a top 10 coach.  I think the 2011 year was a great year but IMO the 2010 was a better team.  The 2011 only beat probably two good teams(Uscar & KSU) and were blown out against LSU and Bama.  While in 2010 they had a tougher schedule and where in every game. 

[al_pigcino]

Oh come on!! Malzahn isn't worthy enough to even tie Bobby Petrino's shoes!

He's probably got a bad back from lifting a heavy national championship trophy. 

[colbs]

He's probably got a bad back from lifting a heavy national championship trophy. 

He was just the OC.

[al_pigcino]

He was just the OC.

"Just"?  That's a pretty big part in a NC.........

[ChitownHawg]

Petrino left this program with Tyler Wilson, Kniles Davis and Colby Hamilton.  Brandon Allen, Jonathan Williams, Jevontee Herndon (5/6 are all still playing in the NFL)

If anyone's to blame for the failures in 2012 and 2013 then it would be Jeff Long.  But I personally don't fault Long for bringing in Smith. The entire idea made complete sense considering the circumstances.

You can't say on one hand that Petrino benefitted from some really good recruiting classes then on the other accuse him of leaving the cupboard bare.

I'm not a recruitIng guy, but the counter argument I have seen is look at CBP's last two recruiting classes. The attrition was supposedly very bad. The guys you mention were early in his time here. The last two classes indicate trouble may have been around the corner.

[ChitownHawg]

This guy wins at every place he goes with all types of players. Some his, some from other staffs and yet some of you still question his longevity. Flashes in the pan cannot sustain this type of consistency. .

I think he was talking about consistency with ONE program - not his career.

[hawganatic]

STOP THIS!
This line of thinking is totally wrong. I commented on this last week or two. The idea that CBP was set up for success is wrong.  Look at the number of draft picks in CBP first three years, not recruited by his staff. He barely had any draft picks that HDN recruited. Not to mention he completely changed an offense that for ten years been heavy run oriented.  Not to mention, Joe Adams was going to USC before CBP got here, Jarious Wright was going to TX tech, Ryan Mallet wasn't going to transfer to AR and Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa. He had to rerecruit all these guys.

Ryan Mallet was transferring to AR regardless of who the coach was.  This was told to me several years ago by a coworker who is from Texarkana and knows the Mallets.  The only reason Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa is because the previous head coach never offered.  All it took was a phone call and an offer letter to get him here.  Jarius Wright was committed to Arkansas.  He wasn't going to TX Tech.  You can give him credit for shoring up these guys, and for flipping Adams.

Petrino is obviously a great coach, but his time here was the product of the perfect storm of great in-state talent, coupled with the coaching change at Michigan and a 5-star QB wanting to come home.  Either of these events not happen then his time here isn't anything special.

If you want to question this, then look at his subsequent recruiting classes and the star power that came out of it.  Nothing special.

[hog.goblin]

Good gracious. Still?

KNILE DAVIS
COBI HAMILTON

Dennis Green was the unsung hero to that team.

[PorkSoda]

Dennis Green was the unsung hero to that team.

Allen Austin did pretty well this year

[GuvHog]

Ryan Mallet was transferring to AR regardless of who the coach was.  This was told to me several years ago by a coworker who is from Texarkana and knows the Mallets.  The only reason Tyler Wilson was going to Tulsa is because the previous head coach never offered.  All it took was a phone call and an offer letter to get him here.  Jarius Wright was committed to Arkansas.  He wasn't going to TX Tech.  You can give him credit for shoring up these guys, and for flipping Adams.

Petrino is obviously a great coach, but his time here was the product of the perfect storm of great in-state talent, coupled with the coaching change at Michigan and a 5-star QB wanting to come home.  Either of these events not happen then his time here isn't anything special.

If you want to question this, then look at his subsequent recruiting classes and the star power that came out of it.  Nothing special.

Dennis Johnson was also a big part of that class and he too was headed out of state until Petrino re-recruited him.

Jarius Wright was committed to Arkansas but it was well known that he was on the verge of de-committing and Committing to Texas Tech when Petrino visited him and got him to change his mind and stay with the Hogs.

Ryan Mallett transferred from Michigan because the new coach was implementing an option attack but Mallett wasn't an option QB. Mallett wouldn't have come to Arkansas if Hooty had stayed another year and did not look at transferring here until after Petrino was hired.

[IndianaHog]

I think the difference is the last 2 BP classes there were a lot of players that left the program or didn't pan out.  Add that onto the JLS year and possibly the SEC being at in all time high, it's an uphill battle. 

BP's first year he inherited a team that lost most of it's production from year's prior.  It was rebuild but was different that what BB inherited.  The 2008 class was probably the deepest Arkansas class in a long time, I think they signed 15 instate players(compare that to 4 this year that are committed).  Now I give him credit for getting to all sign.  Most where already committed except Joe Adams and Tyler Wilson.  I also think Jarius was looking around at the time.  The SEC was pretty top heavy in 2010 & 2011 but the middle & bottom of the conference were not all that great.  So it was a little easier to rise up in the west. 

I am not trying to knock what BP did here but not every situation is equal.  There is no doubt that BB hasn't came close to doing what BP done here but the road was easier for BP.  You can deny it all you want but it's the truth.  I am not sure BP would have improved from the 2010 & 2011 success(which is fine I am okay with 9-11 win seasons).  He usually beat the teams he was suppose to and lost to the better teams.

Always an excuse when it comes to why CBP won here. Everybody keeps talking about this super duper deep Arkansas class that he "inherited" made up of 4 and 5 stars. No, CBP developed them like a good coach supposed to.