COULD HOGS PULL OFF A MAJOR UPSET THIS YEAR

[HognotinMemphis]

do you believe that because you are a pessimist, because you don't like morris, or because you think CBB recruited poorly (aka you think our players suck)

Your last cause.

[USChog]

No need to yell.

[alohawg]

You humor me in MMQ too? +1

Dry sense of humor. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is interesting stuff.

After re-checking some numbers and recalculating, there is little or no change in the order of teams or points, except that Alabama was better than I first calculated. Here's the 2013-2017 class point totals from 24/7 Sports for each West and East team divided by the number of wins each team had from 2014-2017. Obviously, the fewer class points needed for each win is better. This really illustrates the productivity gap between the West and the East for the 2014-2017 seasons.

Teams          2013-17 Class Points       2014-2017 Wins        2014-2017 Class Pts/Win
ALA                      1576.2                          53                              29.7
MSU                     1083.5                          34                              31.9
AUB                      1354.0                          33                              41.0
OLM                      1251.7                          30                              41.7
ARK                       1086.7                          26                              41.8
A&M                      1304.0                          31                              42.1
LSU                       1447.4                          34                              42.6

GEO                       1399.2                          41                              34.1
MIZ                        982.5                           27                              36.4
KEN                       1025.9                          24                               42.7
FLA                        1298.9                         30                               43.3
TEN                        1266.6                         29                               43.7
USC                        1138.2                         25                               45.5
VAN                         914.6                          18                               50.8

Who got more out of the talent that they had recruited, signed and developed? There is a pretty good indication. What could Mullen have done with more talent? Or Missouri?   

[rtr]

After re-checking some numbers and recalculating, there is little or no change in the order of teams or points, except that Alabama was better than I first calculated. Here's the 2013-2017 class point totals from 24/7 Sports for each West and East team divided by the number of wins each team had from 2014-2017. Obviously, the fewer class points needed for each win is better. This really illustrates the productivity gap between the West and the East for the 2014-2017 seasons.

Teams          2013-17 Class Points       2014-2017 Wins        2014-2017 Class Pts/Win
ALA                      1576.2                          53                              29.7
MSU                     1083.5                          34                              31.9
AUB                      1354.0                          33                              41.0
OLM                      1251.7                          30                              41.7
ARK                       1086.7                          26                              41.8
A&M                      1304.0                          31                              42.1
LSU                       1447.4                          34                              42.6

GEO                       1399.2                          41                              34.1
MIZ                        982.5                           27                              36.4
KEN                       1025.9                          24                               42.7
FLA                        1298.9                         30                               43.3
TEN                        1266.6                         29                               43.7
USC                        1138.2                         25                               45.5
VAN                         914.6                          18                               50.8

Who got more out of the talent that they had recruited, signed and developed? There is a pretty good indication. What could Mullen have done with more talent? Or Missouri?   

Mullen got a lot of out of Mississippi State and they came that close to knocking off Bama.  Mizzou has overachieved since joining the conference.  They were so close to playing in the BCSNCG in 2013

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Mullen got a lot of out of Mississippi State and they came that close to knocking off Bama.  Mizzou has overachieved since joining the conference.  They were so close to playing in the BCSNCG in 2013

And looking at LSU's productivity with all the talent that they had over that period of time, you can see how greatly they underachieved as well. It is definitely a two part equation. Not just having great talent, but having better coaching as well. Speaking of Mullen, now he has a chance to move Florida back to higher levels of recruiting (top 10) and he might just bring them back to greater prominence in the East.

As for Missouri, Pinkel took some heat at Missouri after their first season in the SEC (2012: 5-7) but responded nicely with 12-2 and 11-3 seasons and then more heat with a 5-7 record in 2015. You could say that they have overachieved but what the numbers show is that the coaching they had was just able to get more production out of the talent that they had recruited, signed and developed.

[hogcards]

We'll be the underdog in every game this year except the non-conf games (and may be in one of those). So yes, we will upset someone.

Hogs will be the favorites in games against Ole Miss, Vandy and Miss St.

[HeathWimp]

Not this year.  Maybe in a couple of years if the recruiting improves.

[Porkys Revenge]

Hogs will do well to win 4 again this year. None of their wins will be "major upset". The PTB let the Bret put the program into the John T. We are the worst program in the SEC. Hope Morris will change that in 2 or 3 seasons.

We will have a year similar to 1998 with the Bama game giving us a shot at #1 like Tennessee did that year.

Morris is probably already drawing up plays for aTm and will beat them by 21+.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We will have a year similar to 1998 with the Bama game giving us a shot at #1 like Tennessee did that year.

Morris is probably already drawing up plays for aTm and will beat them by 21+.

I like the way Morris talks and the energy that he infuses into the team and that he projects to the media and fan base, but I'm not ready to crown him as the next great thing at this point. The ultimate judge will be the outcome of the seasons that lay ahead.

There are some who have cited how he rebuilt the SMU program and he did indeed move them from 5-7 in 2013 and 1-11 in 2014 to 2-10, 5-7 and 7-6 in 2015-2017. And while he did produce better recruiting classes, they weren't substantially better, going from 128.33 class points (2014) to 142.99 (2015), 152.27 (2016) and 140.4 (2017). As far as getting "more from less" he ranked 9th out of 12 teams in the AAC in terms of cumulative class points divided by wins. Over that time Navy was #1 in getting the most out of talent that they had to work with, Temple second, Houston third, S. Florida fourth, Memphis fifth, Tulsa sixth and UCF at 7th and U Conn at 8th.

So while I am hoping that with better talent at his disposal and being back on a competitive level similar to his time at Clemson, that he will in time rebuild this program to the point that we are far more competitive. I don't expect it in year 1, but who knows? He might just be the right coach at the right time and in the right place, to make it happen sooner. I certainly hope so.

[kp72204]

Remember the movie major league? Let's say before the season we all think we're trash, win a couple and think these guys aren't so bad, and then.................

[JONAS]

Right now I just want to beat the Aggies. Sick of losing to them.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Right now I just want to beat the Aggies. Sick of losing to them.

Don't expect A&M to improve their average record by very much under Jimbo Fisher. His better chance was in the ACC and he underachieved at Florida State.

[Lady Razorback]

Anyone in the stands when unranked Arkansas clobbered No.1 Texas 42-11 knows that anything can happen when the ball bounces your way.

The only major upsets on our 2018 schedule would be Auburn or Alabama. It would take a bunch of turnovers and good breaks, but we're due. It could happen.

Arkansas should be favored in at least six games.  They'll probably be underdogs in the other six but could win 4 of those. Alabama or Auburn would take a perfect storm.

OMG, I was there with my Dad, and I will never forget it.  EVER!

[DeltaBoy]

BEAT TAMU!

[LJHOG]

We lose to Alabama by less than 4 touchdowns and they'll be upset.  That count?

[PorkSoda]

We lose to Alabama by less than 4 touchdowns and they'll be upset.  That count?

lol, saban will be pissed