Way Too Early Look at the 2017 Hogs

[Kevin]

I hope someone else is playing third.

[jry04]

I hope someone else is playing third.

Other than who? Shaddy won't be an option if that is who you are referring to. If it ends up being Scroggins, I just hope his bat develops. His defense was pretty solid for the most part, and he will only improve.

[ucahogfan]

Post Draft Line Up

Catcher
First Lineup - Ben Rortvedt (Freshman) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Grant Koch (Sophomore) - As I mentioned in the OP, we are in a good spot at C next year even if Rortvedt signed with Grant Koch.  Showed that he was a potential All-SEC C in 2016.

First Base
First Lineup - Chad Spanberger (Junior)

Current Lineup - Chad Spanberger (Junior) - He is on a power binge this summer.  He has hit 11 HRs (1 in the ASG) out in California this summer and is lapping the field in that regard.  I would like to see him draw more walks, but the power is obviously there.

Second Base
First Lineup - Jared Gates (Junior)

Current Lineup - Jared Gates (Junior)

Third Base
First Lineup - Clark Eagan (Senior) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Carson Shaddy (RS Junior) - There is a huge question mark about whether he can play 3B defensively, but maybe more work will help.  If not, maybe Jordan McFarland can play 3B.

Shortstop
First Lineup - Cole Stobbe (Freshman) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Jaxon Williams (Freshman) - This is the biggest question mark on the team IMO.  There are a couple of guys who can start which also includes Hunter Wilson and Jax Biggers.

Left Field
First Lineup - Luke Bonfield (Junior)

Current Lineup - Luke Bonfield (Junior)

Center Field
First Lineup - Jordan McFarland (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Jake Arledge (Senior) - Arledge is having an excellent summer out in California triple slashing .311/.426/.467 with 12 XBHs in 122 ABs and is 18-21 in SBA.  He is showing he can be a true leadoff hitter for us next season.

Right Field
First Lineup - Dominic Fletcher (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Dominic Fletcher (Freshman)

Designated Hitter
First Lineup - Carson Shaddy (RS Junior)

Current Lineup - Jordan McFarland (Freshman)

The Batting Order

1.  Jake Arledge - CF
2.  Carson Shaddy - 3B
3.  Luke Bonfield - LF
4.  Chad Spanberger - 1B
5.  Grant Koch - C
6.  Jordan McFarland - DH
7.  Jared Gates - 2B
8.  Dominic Fletcher - RF
9.  Jaxon Williams - SS

The Pitching Rotation

Friday Night Starter
First Lineup - Keaton McKinney (Junior)

Current Lineup - Keaton McKinney (Junior)

Saturday Starter
First Lineup - Blaine Knight (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Blaine Knight (Sophomore)

Sunday Starter
First Lineup - Isaiah Campbell (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Isaiah Campbell (Sophomore)

Great Fourth Option
First Lineup - Barrett Loseke (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Barrett Loseke (Sophomore) - His summer performance only solidifies that we will have four great arms who could start on the weekend for us.

Closer
First Lineup - Brenden Heiss (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Dominic Taccolini (Senior) - A huge get for us to return for his senior year.  Hopefully working with Johnson has him throwing in the 93-95 range at the back end of the bullpen.

Setup
First Lineup - Cannon Chadwick (Senior)

Current Lineup - Cannon Chadwick (Senior), Brenden Heiss (Freshman), Trevor Stephan (Junior) - Getting Taco, Stephan, and Heiss to campus for 2017 will give Johnson several power arms to rely on at the back end of the pen.  I know this leans heavy RH, but the LHPs are still a question mark right now.

[bulldog04]

Post Draft Line Up

Catcher
First Lineup - Ben Rortvedt (Freshman) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Grant Koch (Sophomore) - As I mentioned in the OP, we are in a good spot at C next year even if Rortvedt signed with Grant Koch.  Showed that he was a potential All-SEC C in 2016.

First Base
First Lineup - Chad Spanberger (Junior)

Current Lineup - Chad Spanberger (Junior) - He is on a power binge this summer.  He has hit 11 HRs (1 in the ASG) out in California this summer and is lapping the field in that regard.  I would like to see him draw more walks, but the power is obviously there.

Second Base
First Lineup - Jared Gates (Junior)

Current Lineup - Jared Gates (Junior)

Third Base
First Lineup - Clark Eagan (Senior) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Carson Shaddy (RS Junior) - There is a huge question mark about whether he can play 3B defensively, but maybe more work will help.  If not, maybe Jordan McFarland can play 3B.

Shortstop
First Lineup - Cole Stobbe (Freshman) - Drafted and Signed

Current Lineup - Jaxon Williams (Freshman) - This is the biggest question mark on the team IMO.  There are a couple of guys who can start which also includes Hunter Wilson and Jax Biggers.

Left Field
First Lineup - Luke Bonfield (Junior)

Current Lineup - Luke Bonfield (Junior)

Center Field
First Lineup - Jordan McFarland (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Jake Arledge (Senior) - Arledge is having an excellent summer out in California triple slashing .311/.426/.467 with 12 XBHs in 122 ABs and is 18-21 in SBA.  He is showing he can be a true leadoff hitter for us next season.

Right Field
First Lineup - Dominic Fletcher (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Dominic Fletcher (Freshman)

Designated Hitter
First Lineup - Carson Shaddy (RS Junior)

Current Lineup - Jordan McFarland (Freshman)

The Batting Order

1.  Jake Arledge - CF
2.  Carson Shaddy - 3B
3.  Luke Bonfield - LF
4.  Chad Spanberger - 1B
5.  Grant Koch - C
6.  Jordan McFarland - DH
7.  Jared Gates - 2B
8.  Dominic Fletcher - RF
9.  Jaxon Williams - SS

The Pitching Rotation

Friday Night Starter
First Lineup - Keaton McKinney (Junior)

Current Lineup - Keaton McKinney (Junior)

Saturday Starter
First Lineup - Blaine Knight (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Blaine Knight (Sophomore)

Sunday Starter
First Lineup - Isaiah Campbell (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Isaiah Campbell (Sophomore)

Great Fourth Option
First Lineup - Barrett Loseke (Sophomore)

Current Lineup - Barrett Loseke (Sophomore) - His summer performance only solidifies that we will have four great arms who could start on the weekend for us.

Closer
First Lineup - Brenden Heiss (Freshman)

Current Lineup - Dominic Taccolini (Senior) - A huge get for us to return for his senior year.  Hopefully working with Johnson has him throwing in the 93-95 range at the back end of the bullpen.

Setup
First Lineup - Cannon Chadwick (Senior)

Current Lineup - Cannon Chadwick (Senior), Brenden Heiss (Freshman), Trevor Stephan (Junior) - Getting Taco, Stephan, and Heiss to campus for 2017 will give Johnson several power arms to rely on at the back end of the pen.  I know this leans heavy RH, but the LHPs are still a question mark right now.

Can't find much fault with that. A lot of question marks in the field and it's hard to say who is better than who with so many talented newcomers.  All we know is Bonfield, Shaddy, Koch, and Spanny have to be in the lineup.

[yraciv]

Post Draft Prediction:
C - Grant Koch
1B - Chad Spanberger
2B - Jared Gates
SS - Hunter Wilson
3B - Carson Shaddy
LF - Luke Bonfield
CF - Jordan McFarland
RF - Eric Cole
DH - Austin Catron

I'll go with the same rotation as up top.

Throw Arledge in Center after the summer he is having, shift McFarland to right, and bench Cole and I think that is what I'm going with.

[jry04]

We need Shaddy to improve drastically or DH him. McFarland played some 3B in HS, so I would love it if he could play 3B, Bonfield, McFarland, and Arledge play OF with Cole and Benninghoff in the rotation, and then Shaddy DH.

[ucahogfan]

Throw Arledge in Center after the summer he is having, shift McFarland to right, and bench Cole and I think that is what I'm going with.

I just can't see Catron in the lineup next year with the talent we have coming back and the talent we have coming in.  He just looked overmatched at the plate in SEC play and will be a senior.

And I think I'm being optimistic about Shaddy being able to handle 3B defensively so Catron is blocked both at DH (Shaddy) and 1B (Spanberger more than likely).

[Kevin]

I don't want to see shaaddy at third

[yraciv]

I don't want to see shaaddy at third

I don't either, but it's going to take some good auditions to shift him to his rightful spot of DH. I don't feel comfortable with Scroggins there, feel he is a utility if guy. Spanberger and McFarland have had it listed as a secondary positions in their career, so maybe DVH would let them try it out.  Maybe McFarland takes it from him, Shaddy shifts to DH, and then I'd throw Fletcher in the OF UCA! Or maybe Span takes it, Catron at 1B, and Shaddy on the bench.  Too many questions on who DVH switches up positions.

[ucahogfan]

I don't either, but it's going to take some good auditions to shift him to his rightful spot of DH. I don't feel comfortable with Scroggins there, feel he is a utility if guy. Spanberger and McFarland have had it listed as a secondary positions in their career, so maybe DVH would let them try it out.  Maybe McFarland takes it from him, Shaddy shifts to DH, and then I'd throw Fletcher in the OF UCA! Or maybe Span takes it, Catron at 1B, and Shaddy on the bench.  Too many questions on who DVH switches up positions.

Shaddy on the bench?  His bat will be in the lineup.

[yraciv]

Shaddy on the bench?  His bat will be in the lineup.

I meant Shaddy at DH in the 2nd equation considering I had Catron coming in at 1B.

[dotnet]

So I come at this with a few pre-conceived notions...

1. Players improve a whole lot in baseball.  They will have played two additional season in between the two time see them wearing Hog uniforms.  A lot can and should happen for the players.

2. Players with the most raw talent have the ability to improve more than the players with less raw talent.  Yes, there are exceptions, but generally...

3. When BA is ranking players for the draft, they're trying to predict which baseball players will be the most valuable when they are all 25.  Not which baseball players will be the best players next season. 

With that said, my probable lineup assuming the freshman develop like I hope:

C - Grant Koch
1b - McFarland/Spanberger
2b - Gates
3b - Eagan
SS - Kenley/Ronnebaum
LF - Bonfield
CF - Fletcher
RF - Cole
DH - Spanberger/McFarland

Friday - McKinney
Saturday - Knight/Campbell
Sunday - Cronin/Lee/Krull
Midweek - Loseke

Relief Ace - Tacolini
Closer - Heiss
Chadwick, Zach Jackson, other strike out pitchers and the non starters from above

[dotnet]

Other thoughts -

I don't trust Spanberger to put the bat on the ball against elite SEC pitching.  i hope he makes my worries look foolish

I put two short stops no one else has to only highlight how open that job seems to me.  You're in the hardest defensive position and you have to be with it to play it as a freshman in the SEC.  I think its impossible for a fan to predict who gets that job. 

I again want Zach Jackson to be awesome so quickly its not funny. The mind game that will play with opponents and specifically their fans cannot be overstated. I want him to close a game against Mo State so bad. 

If he can, I think DVH would rather Taco be a relief ace that comes into tight spots at various points (ala Astin a few years ago vs Suggs) rather than the closer.  I don't know if Heiss has the demeanor to close or not. 

I think DVH would like to have a LH starter, so I took that into account.  I have no idea which of those three will be better right away or if any of them are good enough too.  Hopefully, out of all of these talented pitchers, there is at least one who can be the Alex Lange or what not of the group and can be really good right away.  Hopefully there is at least one Zach Jackson who can be a hammer in the bullpen right away - most likely Heiss. 

I think Cole is the type of player who comes back and has a very solid sophmore year.  I would have expected Serrano to have a better sophmore year and felt they were similar types of players, but hopefully Cole can hit closer to 330 and get on base like he did at the beginning of this past year. 

By my count, and including bullpen slots, this team needs six newcomers to be at least average SEC players right away to be as good as we want/expect this team to be.  This number can be reduced if other players make larger than normal steps forward (benninghoff, ty harris, etc.)

While there are a lot of pitchers who have the ability to be excellent - i mentioned 11 and didn't even try to mention everyone - there is not a single pitcher that you can say "if he pitches as good as he did last year then he can fulfill this slot perfectly".  Every single person has to improve/prove - and there are reasons to expect it'll happen - for any position to be fulfilled.  Its a scary place.  Even if they didn't work out, there have always been pitchers that we would have been perfectly happy for them to repeat their prior year performance:  Zach Jackson, Killian, Beeks, Astin, Stanek, Suggs, etc.  this year, not one single person can you say that about in any single role.   

[yraciv]

So I come at this with a few pre-conceived notions...

1. Players improve a whole lot in baseball.  They will have played two additional season in between the two time see them wearing Hog uniforms.  A lot can and should happen for the players.

2. Players with the most raw talent have the ability to improve more than the players with less raw talent.  Yes, there are exceptions, but generally...

3. When BA is ranking players for the draft, they're trying to predict which baseball players will be the most valuable when they are all 25.  Not which baseball players will be the best players next season. 

With that said, my probable lineup assuming the freshman develop like I hope:

C - Grant Koch
1b - McFarland/Spanberger
2b - Gates
3b - Eagan
SS - Kenley/Ronnebaum
LF - Bonfield
CF - Fletcher
RF - Cole
DH - Spanberger/McFarland

Friday - McKinney
Saturday - Knight/Campbell
Sunday - Cronin/Lee/Krull
Midweek - Loseke

Relief Ace - Tacolini
Closer - Heiss
Chadwick, Zach Jackson, other strike out pitchers and the non starters from above

Did you miss the draf discussion?  Eagan and Zach Jackson are professional baseball players. Spanberger has 11 HR in 142 AB this summer in arguably the 2nd best collegiate summer league, which is a wood bat league.   He is bound too have done some of that against major conference pitching.  Not sure why you have Knight/Cambell Saturday. Wouldn't you expect the other to be Sunday guy.  Also of note, Campbell is leading the same California league with a 1.35 ERA in 8 starts.

[HoopS]

My guess is Shaddy is working his tail off to improve D. I know I did between my Frosh and Soph years. It can be done.

[ucahogfan]

Did you miss the draf discussion?  Eagan and Zach Jackson are professional baseball players. Spanberger has 11 HR in 142 AB this summer in arguably the 2nd best collegiate summer league, which is a wood bat league.   He is bound too have done some of that against major conference pitching.  Not sure why you have Knight/Cambell Saturday. Wouldn't you expect the other to be Sunday guy.  Also of note, Campbell is leading the same California league with a 1.35 ERA in 8 starts.

We have a signee from Bryant named Zach Jackson who is also a RHP.

[ucahogfan]

With that said, my probable lineup assuming the freshman develop like I hope:

C - Grant Koch
1b - McFarland/Spanberger
2b - Gates
3b - Eagan
SS - Kenley/Ronnebaum
LF - Bonfield
CF - Fletcher
RF - Cole
DH - Spanberger/McFarland

Friday - McKinney
Saturday - Knight/Campbell
Sunday - Cronin/Lee/Krull
Midweek - Loseke

Relief Ace - Tacolini
Closer - Heiss
Chadwick, Zach Jackson, other strike out pitchers and the non starters from above

A couple of my thoughts:

-  Ronnenbaum is 6'4" so odds are he is probably a corner INF.  SS who are 6'4" are very rare.
-  Since Eagan signed and like yraciv said, you will need a new 3B.  It could be Ronnenbaum.  The left side of the INF is very wide open on who will start there.
-  I would probably flip Cole and Fletcher because Cole is much faster than Fletcher.  Cole has sub 6.6 speed while Fletcher is more of a 7.0-7.1 runner.  Now that isn't saying Fletcher can't play CF because he could with his defensive ability, but Cole is more likely to be a CF.

[dotnet]

So I come at this with a few pre-conceived notions...

1. Players improve a whole lot in baseball.  They will have played two additional season in between the two time see them wearing Hog uniforms.  A lot can and should happen for the players.

2. Players with the most raw talent have the ability to improve more than the players with less raw talent.  Yes, there are exceptions, but generally...

3. When BA is ranking players for the draft, they're trying to predict which baseball players will be the most valuable when they are all 25.  Not which baseball players will be the best players next season. 

With that said, my probable lineup assuming the freshman develop like I hope:

C - Grant Koch
1b - McFarland/Spanberger
2b - Gates
3b - Eagan Shaddy
SS - Kenley/Ronnebaum
LF - Bonfield
CF - Fletcher
RF - Cole
DH - Spanberger/McFarland

Friday - McKinney
Saturday - Knight/Campbell
Sunday - Cronin/Lee/Krull
Midweek - Loseke

Relief Ace - Tacolini
Closer - Heiss
Chadwick, Zach Jackson, other strike out pitchers and the non starters from above

Clearly I wrote the wrong name between Shaddy and Eagan.  My apologies. 

Though now that I think about it, I would probably guess Shaddy and Gates could be flip flopped

[dotnet]

Did you miss the draf discussion?  Eagan and Zach Jackson are professional baseball players. Spanberger has 11 HR in 142 AB this summer in arguably the 2nd best collegiate summer league, which is a wood bat league.   He is bound too have done some of that against major conference pitching.  Not sure why you have Knight/Cambell Saturday. Wouldn't you expect the other to be Sunday guy.  Also of note, Campbell is leading the same California league with a 1.35 ERA in 8 starts.

Did you miss the recruitin discussion? 

I am aware of all these things. 

If you read my hot takes you would notice that while I still have Spanberger starting, so no biggie, I am skeptical of him hitting SEC pitching.  SEC pitching the california legaue is not.  I would fully expect him to lead the MAC in homers if he were playing for Miami of Ohio (i have no idea who is or isn't in the MAC, but you get the point). 

Though yes, I have Spanberger starting because even if I am correct - which we all hope I'm full of it - of course he'll run into a few in the SEC.  Still not sure that makes the bat playable if he has a 50% k rate.  Again though, I have him in the lineup so I'm not expecting that either.

I touched on this in my hot takes too, but there are several reasons I have only one of Knight campbell starting.  One of which is that regardless of how good they're going to be as sophmores, and I hope they're both great and think they'll both be at least good, I hope one of the freshmen is so good that he has to start.  Also, a LHP.

Also, when you have three starters who all pitched at a level that wasn't good enough to be an SEC starter on a top team last year, and you need them all to improve enough to be that this year... chances are you're not going to go 3 for 3.  I think 2 of the three will make it with McKinney being the most likely.  So thats why I put it that way.

And again, the california league is not the SEC.

[dotnet]

A couple of my thoughts:

-  Ronnenbaum is 6'4" so odds are he is probably a corner INF.  SS who are 6'4" are very rare.
-  Since Eagan signed and like yraciv said, you will need a new 3B.  It could be Ronnenbaum.  The left side of the INF is very wide open on who will start there.
-  I would probably flip Cole and Fletcher because Cole is much faster than Fletcher.  Cole has sub 6.6 speed while Fletcher is more of a 7.0-7.1 runner.  Now that isn't saying Fletcher can't play CF because he could with his defensive ability, but Cole is more likely to be a CF.

Again, gotta read the hottakes.  I more picked two new SSs to point out how much I think anything could happen with that position and he played SS when he signed.  I am making zero prediction about the short stop position for 2017.  I hope you're right and Jaxon owns it for a few years.

I actually thought about Cole and Fletcher.  But I remembered a while ago that PG compared Fletcher to Jim Edmonds defensively and it was too good to pass up (though I was never a Jim edmonds guy).  Also - I wasn't sure if the freshman had the arm for RF and Cole can do it.  But yeah... either way. 

[ucahogfan]

Again, gotta read the hottakes.  I more picked two new SSs to point out how much I think anything could happen with that position and he played SS when he signed.  I am making zero prediction about the short stop position for 2017.  I hope you're right and Jaxon owns it for a few years.

I actually thought about Cole and Fletcher.  But I remembered a while ago that PG compared Fletcher to Jim Edmonds defensively and it was too good to pass up (though I was never a Jim edmonds guy).  Also - I wasn't sure if the freshman had the arm for RF and Cole can do it.  But yeah... either way.

Did read the hottakes, but just saying that Ronnenbaum is probably more of a corner INF because of his height.  I fully agree that SS is the most unknown position for next season.  I have said as much.

Fletcher's best tool is probably his arm.  He threw 96 at a PG event in high school which is big time arm strength and he could handle any position.

[dotnet]

Fletcher's best tool is probably his arm.  He threw 96 at a PG event in high school which is big time arm strength and he could handle any position.

Thats promising. 

[dotnet]

Lets look at this another way.  I feel like to be a good team in the SEC you need to have 16 SEC players on your roster.  You can sometimes make it with less and have a hold in your lineup or really ride a bullpen guy or two, but you really need 16.  This does not count the mid week starter, which I think is important.

9 guys in the lineup, 3 starters, and 1 closer, and 3 bullpen guys. 

Like always, Arkansas has a ton of players who will be in fall camp that we expect and hope will be big time contributors.  But of all the guys on campus, I would break it down like this:

Guys who have been good and you expect to be really good:
Shaddy
Bonfield

Guys who have been good before and you hope will again:
Taco
McKinney

Guys with potential that has actualy flashed and you expect to make a step in 2017:
Spanberger
Cole
Loseke
Knight
Campbell
Koch
Chadwick


That is only 11 players.  Of the guys in the last list, you rarely if ever have a 100% hit rate on those guys.  So that means Arkansas needs 7+ newcomers or guys who haven't really done anything (ie. Benninghoff) to step up this year and be legit players. 

That is a lot, but not too much different than what MSU did last year.