The Trey Flowers Dilemma

[Adam Stokes]

so lets compare this to arkansas over the past 5 years

we have had 21 players drafted and and when compared to the classes they were recruited in it looks like this

5* 0%
4* 31%
3* 9%
2* 3%

we only had 1 5* and that didn't pan out, so that category is moot, but we did perfrom better than average with 3 and 4 stars and right on average with 2*s

+1 if I could, nice research.  There is no doubt that Bret maximizes the players that he gets.  I just hope we continue to land the guys that have a 31% or 1/3 shot vs the guys that have a 9% or 1/11 shot.  Hope the players we've gotten committed get re-evaluated higher.

[Grizzlyfan]

CBB will be successful here because of his player evaluation, low miss-rate and developmental process.  No coach will ever be successful here because they can out-recruit the SEC powers, because that has never and will never happen.

Those characteristics are musts for success at Arkansas.  You have to have seniors, especially some 5th year seniors to offset superstars.

[31to6]

You characterize yourself with these posts.

"If we were one of these schools that...etc"

Why arent we?

Because our school is in a state that produces ~10 D1 athletes per year, give or take and many of our SEC competitors are in states that produce 3x, 4x, 10x, 20x that many, depending on state.

You say you "love" what Bret is doing then complain about what hes doing.

I'm not complaining at all about what he is doing. I just find it pretty comical the way many Hog fans try to talk themselves into thinking that the recruiting realities don't matter. It is just a fact that, over time, recruiting rankings do correlate to greater success. Anyone who disagrees is delusional. There are mountains of historical data to support it. A few anecdotal "but what about X, he was only a 2*" type rebuttals are just people trying to find outliers. There are many outliers and so the odds of a team getting one is not low. But the odds of consistently getting a large number of those outliers is miniscule. So Bret has to develop the team differently in the hopes that if he sticks with the program for a decade and builds/re-builds the Arkansas brand he can win more battles for difference makers to augment his excellent skills at finding under-valued players that he can develop.

As an interesting aside I sat a flight next to a recent former Clemson player and we had a very good discussion about this topic. His assertion was that Clemson has been successful above their nominal recruiting rankings because Dabo shys away from low-character players, which reduces attrition and gets more team players (to go along with some truly elite athletes they have been able to get).

So what would YOU do? Recruit kids that can be coached up? Or become Hugh Freeze?

That really is the only question. It has always been the only question.

It is obvious that Bret/Jeff have made their choice. We arent going down that road.  We just arent.

All of these debates already have that answer baked in.

Of course they do. I think you may have mentally pigeonholed me into the same category as those who say we can't ever win unless we get more 5* players and then interpreted what I have been saying through that perspective.

I do believe we can win the way CBB is building the team. But that does not alter the reality that if we are able to recruit more truly elite athletes, that task of winning at a high level will become easier and happen faster. Because we are not going to find very many Trey Flowers. Those diamonds in the rough do exist and they will happen, but even at Arkansas most of our NFL-caliber players have been and will continue to be highly-rated and highly-recruited players.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/RazorbackEquip/status/763922752923316224

[oldhawg]

Frank Broyles' teams won one national championship in nineteen years with less talented players than some of the other schools the Razorbacks played (in the days before "stars" were revered).  Hopefully Bielema can find the same magic along the way.  And then there is Hugh Bezdek, who did it ai five years as a Razorback (Cardinals) coach.     

[Theolesnort]

Well I will pipe in and say this. We annually finish with the 11TH best SEC recruiting class. We have been doing this for years or so the recruiting gurus say this. But since Bret has been here each year since with these type recruiting classes we just keep climbing in the look and see get off the bus test  and and then of course the result on the field test. Probably in the top 5 by now. Something just doesn't add up with the guru's evaluations. Maybe the gurus themselves need to be evaluated as evaluators?

[Theolesnort]

Frank Broyles' teams won one national championship in nineteen years with less talented players than some of the other schools the Razorbacks played (in the days before "stars" were revered).  Hopefully Bielema can find the same magic along the way.  And then there is Hugh Bezdek, who did it ai five years as a Razorback (Cardinals) coach.     

Frank Broyles had a pretty good pipeline into Texas and for some years he out recruited Oklahoma in Texas or about until Switzer took over.

[Theolesnort]

You guys need to leave the stars crap alone. It only stirs the pot and pisses off the guys who should be deep-sixed when they post this stuff a gazillion times a year.

About this time last year some of our people were complaining about lack of stars and I piped up and said we were doing OK but it would not be as good a class as the 2015 class which was really good. Well I was probably wrong because this 2016 class has some difference makers last years class can't claim. Well instead of sticking my foot into my mouth once more and spew some more verbal diarrhea I will just set back and see what the 2017 class looks like come next August. I will just say this....instead of 4* and 5* recruits I would like a boatload of 4* and 5* players. There is a difference you know.

[The_Boot_stops_here]

About this time last year some of our people were complaining about lack of stars and I piped up and said we were doing OK but it would not be as good a class as the 2015 class which was really good. Well I was probably wrong because this 2016 class has some difference makers last years class can't claim. Well instead of sticking my foot into my mouth once more and spew some more verbal diarrhea I will just set back and see what the 2017 class looks like come next August. I will just say this....instead of 4* and 5* recruits I would like a boatload of 4* and 5* players. There is a difference you know.

there is also a correlation you know.

[toshortrock]

since we have to go thru this each year,,lets start at the top and work our way down,,wat star does your wife give u 

[Vantage 8 dude]

Well I will pipe in and say this. We annually finish with the 11TH best SEC recruiting class. We have been doing this for years or so the recruiting gurus say this. But since Bret has been here each year since with these type recruiting classes we just keep climbing in the look and see get off the bus test  and and then of course the result on the field test. Probably in the top 5 by now. Something just doesn't add up with the guru's evaluations. Maybe the gurus themselves need to be evaluated as evaluators?

Perhaps part of the answer to this apparent inconsistency is that rather than   judge a the true value of a class merely by its INITIAL star ranking one should judge the class several years down the road. As has been pointed out more than once having a ton of four and five star guys means little if they don't contribute over time. If players leave school for some reason, flunk out, get booted off the team for breaking rules/the law, get hurt and can't play any longer, etc. they obviously aren't available to contribute. Therefore, their ratings coming out of high school/juco aren't really going to mean that much.

[Theolesnort]

there is also a correlation you know.

Sometimes yes sometimes no. I will just say this I am perfectly fine with a class full of 3*s.  Of course if you get the right 3*s.

[Deep Shoat]

I explained this in another thread, but I'll try it again here.

The reason stars don't matter is this:
Every swinging Tom, Dick, and Harry can identify the elite players in a class by the third workout of their sophomore year.  5 stars are easy.  Therefore, stars don't matter.

Almost no one can identify the guys who are going to blow up once they get on campus.  A very few elite coaches are capable of projecting 17 year olds and seeing their real potential out of the great, unwashed mass of 3 star talent.  Therefore, stars don't matter.

2 stars are simply unevaluated, therefore stars don't matter.

The recruiting services created the star system as a way to separate yokels from their money. 

That is all.

Still truth.

[The_Boot_stops_here]

Sometimes yes sometimes no. I will just say this I am perfectly fine with a class full of 3*s.  Of course if you get the right 3*s.

I can agree with that

[Hoggish1]

"Every single one of our current 2017 class could be a Trey Flowers. At least half of them probably are, because Bret does know what he's looking for."

TRUE! and this is the eye every successful coach must have whether he is at Alabama or Arkansas.

Not all stars are equal.  Recruiting services put a label on a kid but a discerning eye is required to know if the kid is capable of growth regardless of the number of stars attached to his name.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

We are all trey Flowers...

I'm not.
I'm Trey Bien Flowers.