How have your expectations changed?

[bigdaddyhawg]

Sat, Sept 3 vs LA Tech 1-0

Sat, Sept 10 @ TCU 2-0  They've got bigger issues than we do; I think we'll simply be the better team.

Sat, Sept 17 vs Texas State 3-0

Sat, Sept 24 vs Texas A&M* 4-0  Aggies hurting at QB

Sat, Oct 1   vs Alcorn State 5-0

Sat, Oct 8 vs Alabama 5-1  Bama still Bama

Sat, Oct 15 vs Ole Miss 5-2  They've still got a ton of talent, and they'll want payback from last year

Sat, Oct 22 @ Auburn 6-2  I should know better!!

Sat, Nov 5   vs Florida 7-2  Florida also has serious QB issues.  Home field will be the difference.

Sat, Nov 12 vs LSU 7-3  Sooner or later they'll play well against us, right?

Sat, Nov 19 @Miss St 8-3 

Sat, Nov 26 @ Missouri  9-3 

But, as Steef pointed out, there are way too many variables involved right now.  I could see 7-5 very easily, but I could see 10-2 as well.

My biggest question is still our pass defense: safety play and LB drops meshing the way they should.  We were so bad last fall, and I'm still questioning our safeties.

If Paul Rhoads gets our secondary to match our front 7 play, we are going to be in double digit wins!!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agreed with Prestworthy except for two wins and one loss I called tossups, three tossup total.
If we get two to go our way, that puts us at 7-5.
If it doesn't, 6-6.

I've said I think 7-5 with 6 to 8 wins being the most likely zone of possibility.

So, not answering for Steef, but I can see 6-6 as possible but most likely being the low side of the most probable outcomes.

I think TCU might be a toss up. They lose 4 of their 5 starters on the O-Line, 2 of their 4 starting WR's, their QB and their starting RB on offense. Their losses are less severe on Defense though they do lose 2 starting D-Linemen, 1 LB and 1 FS. They look a lot like us.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I think TCU might be a toss up. They lose 4 of their 5 starters on the O-Line, 2 of their 4 starting WR's, their QB and their starting RB on offense. Their losses are less severe on Defense though they do lose 2 starting D-Linemen, 1 LB and 1 FS. They look a lot like us.

I don't think the loss at QB can be over-valued.  That guy won a ton of guys with his ability to make plays when there wasn't hardly any chance for a play.

The fact neither Hill nor Sawyer stepped up this spring tells me they are going to have a serious drop down in offensive efficiency this fall.

Also losing Doctson is going to hurt them.  That guy also won games for them they would have lost otherwise, and it's doubtful he'll be replaced by someone anywhere near his caliber.

[Pork Twain]

I don't know if they'll be improved this year or not -- they've got serious QB issues IMO.

BUT, I agree it will be easier to beat they Horney Toads than the Aggies this fall.  TCU is replacing a lot of critical parts -- more than we are.

A lot might even be an understatement and the guys they are replacing are pretty big deals for them.  The good news is that aTm does not have a qb.  The bad news is that the best qb they had from last year is now at TCU.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

I think TCU might be a toss up. They lose 4 of their 5 starters on the O-Line, 2 of their 4 starting WR's, their QB and their starting RB on offense. Their losses are less severe on Defense though they do lose 2 starting D-Linemen, 1 LB and 1 FS. They look a lot like us.

I don't think the loss at QB can be over-valued.  That guy won a ton of guys with his ability to make plays when there wasn't hardly any chance for a play.

The fact neither Hill nor Sawyer stepped up this spring tells me they are going to have a serious drop down in offensive efficiency this fall.

Also losing Doctson is going to hurt them.  That guy also won games for them they would have lost otherwise, and it's doubtful he'll be replaced by someone anywhere near his caliber.

Ok.  You won me over.
I'll CALL TCU a tossup as well.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Ok.  You won me over.
I'll CALL TCU a tossup as well.

And their defense was probably even worse than ours last year.  They are another one of those teams whose D has been affected by their O running that insipid HUNH (alias "The Defense Killer").

Those "finesse" teams have vulnerabilities that we should be able to exploit, even with our inexperience on the OL.

I'm not saying they are going to be a walk-over, but I do think we're going to be the better team that day.  Now, that being said, that hasn't always meant all that much to us recently, i.e. our last two losses to TAMU.

[ChitownHawg]

Predicting wins by numbers is dangerous. Two teams play each game and there's no way to predict right now, how good any of them will be on the day they play us.

Can we expect LSU to self destruct again? What will a second year Florida team look like. Will a rebuilding TCU team be as formidable as a seasoned Tech team was? What will MSU look like without their star QB?

What I mean by "slump" is...the aspects of our team that produced a great second half of the season last year...a lot of them are gone. And some of them take time to replace.

16s Hog offense will have to play catch-up to equal 15s Hog offense. Just to break even. In a league that has formidable defenses.

Win more or less than last year? We should have beaten Toledo and could easily have lost to Miss. Could have beaten MSU.

Last year's numbers are meaningless for "predicting". We aren't rebuilding in a vaccuum.

I "predict" this offense will score fewer points than last year. I "predict" a brand new QB will be intercepted more than we were last year. I predict we will have trouble running the ball again.

How many wins/losses that comes to...has other variables. If our defense shuts down our opponents, we don't HAVE to score as much.

I have said for a while now, that 17 will be better than 16.

I understand your point now. On the point of interceptions I think AA will throw more interceptions than BA as it is his character to take more chances. On the other side he probably will wow us more as well. Give a little and take a little.

[tbhogfan]

My expectations have not changed.   Replacing a fifth-year starter at QB, three outstanding OLinemen, and an extremely productive RB is not going to be easy.  I expect that there will be a growth period for the Offense, but that they will be fine by mid season.

I expect the Defense to be greatly improved, especially in pressuring the opposition's QB. 

How any that translates to wins and losses, I don't know.

[DLUXHOG]

I think the worrywarts and doomers are going to be stunned this year...............

[ChitownHawg]

You can never take him too seriously when it comes to coaches.  One day he hates MA and the next he is telling everyone to be patient and give him a few more years.

One thing is true, is that a high turnover rate with assistant coaches in college sports is the new norm.

MA will do that to you. 

[Boardon Hamsay]

No expectation changes for me. 7-5 regular season is my "on paper" feel. Defense should be improved while the offense has comparatively more questions than answers.

[MJ2]

My expectations for this team have been tempered.  Austin Allen didn't do as well as I hoped and rafe was no better, although, if he were allowed to be tackled, some of those rollouts might be interesting.  I thought the running backs would do better and would have liked to see a little more from sprinkle.

I was encouraged by our secondary, especially Sykes, and agim... Man is he a joy to watch.  Cantrell looked really big.  I also kind of liked our number one o line.  All in all, not bad, but expectations of winning 9-10 games has been reduced, for now.

Good question, but another part of the discussion is how are your expectations now vs pre CBB?    All the sudden it seems that 8-4 is acceptable but wasn't for Petrino or Nutt or others before.

[ricepig]

Good question, but another part of the discussion is how are your expectations now vs pre CBB?    All the sudden it seems that 8-4 is acceptable but wasn't for Petrino or Nutt or others before.

It wasn't? Have you ever looked at our average W/L record since joining the SEC?

[ChitownHawg]

Good question, but another part of the discussion is how are your expectations now vs pre CBB?    All the sudden it seems that 8-4 is acceptable but wasn't for Petrino or Nutt or others before.

Easy answer. Look at the West when those other two coaches were here. No TAM, Miss schools had issues, and Bama was bad for one of those two coaches.

Today's West is so competitive that every West team has a shot at beating the other on Saturdays. Apples and oranges.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Good question, but another part of the discussion is how are your expectations now vs pre CBB?    All the sudden it seems that 8-4 is acceptable but wasn't for Petrino or Nutt or others before.

I don't think that anyone is more satisfied with an 8-4 expectation now than they ever were under any HC and most realize that we should have won at least 2 to maybe even 4 more games than we did last year. Don't think for a minute that anyone has forgotten or chosen to overlook that. But I think most realize that the overall quality and character of the program has improved and for the time being, especially with recruiting apparently being improved, that has bought Bielema some time to generate seasons with more wins.

What helps Bielema to some extent is that most remember how the Nutt, Petrino and JLS regimes ended as ugly train wrecks for the program that had more to do with the character of the program than the quality of the football.

[Biggus Piggus]

Good question, but another part of the discussion is how are your expectations now vs pre CBB?    All the sudden it seems that 8-4 is acceptable but wasn't for Petrino or Nutt or others before.

Number of opponents that finished with losing records (or were lower-division)...

Nutt -- Average of 4.7 per season.
Petrino/JohnL -- Average of 4.6 per season.
Bielema -- Average of 3.7 per season -- and unlike the others, two of those were Arkansas's bowl game opponents! Excluding bowls, those averages are 4.7, 4.6, and 3.0.

In Nutt and Petrino times, Arkansas could count on a full two more bad opponents than they get to play now.

Arkansas plays more conference games, post-expansion, and also hasn't gotten a very good shake from the SEC schedule maker. Plus, Ole Miss/Miss State were sad sack much of the time during Nutt/Petrino days. Alabama, Auburn and LSU were wildly up and down during Nutt times. South Carolina was never very good (and has reverted + gotten off our schedule to boot).

[MJ2]

Number of opponents that finished with losing records (or were lower-division)...

Nutt -- Average of 4.7 per season.
Petrino/JohnL -- Average of 4.6 per season.
Bielema -- Average of 3.7 per season -- and unlike the others, two of those were Arkansas's bowl game opponents! Excluding bowls, those averages are 4.7, 4.6, and 3.0.

In Nutt and Petrino times, Arkansas could count on a full two more bad opponents than they get to play now.

Arkansas plays more conference games, post-expansion, and also hasn't gotten a very good shake from the SEC schedule maker. Plus, Ole Miss/Miss State were sad sack much of the time during Nutt/Petrino days. Alabama, Auburn and LSU were wildly up and down during Nutt times. South Carolina was never very good (and has reverted + gotten off our schedule to boot).

Good info.

[HogMantheIntruder]

Number of opponents that finished with losing records (or were lower-division)...

Nutt -- Average of 4.7 per season.
Petrino/JohnL -- Average of 4.6 per season.
Bielema -- Average of 3.7 per season -- and unlike the others, two of those were Arkansas's bowl game opponents! Excluding bowls, those averages are 4.7, 4.6, and 3.0.

In Nutt and Petrino times, Arkansas could count on a full two more bad opponents than they get to play now.

Arkansas plays more conference games, post-expansion, and also hasn't gotten a very good shake from the SEC schedule maker. Plus, Ole Miss/Miss State were sad sack much of the time during Nutt/Petrino days. Alabama, Auburn and LSU were wildly up and down during Nutt times. South Carolina was never very good (and has reverted + gotten off our schedule to boot).

Glad to see you back Biggus! Your evil twin has been peeing in the kool-aid while you were away. 

[Pig in the Pokey]

Sat, Sept 3 vs LA Tech 1-0

Sat, Sept 10 @ TCU 2-0  They've got bigger issues than we do; I think we'll simply be the better team.

Sat, Sept 17 vs Texas State 3-0

Sat, Sept 24 vs Texas A&M* 4-0  Aggies hurting at QB

Sat, Oct 1   vs Alcorn State 5-0

Sat, Oct 8 vs Alabama 5-1  Bama still Bama

Sat, Oct 15 vs Ole Miss 5-2  They've still got a ton of talent, and they'll want payback from last year

Sat, Oct 22 @ Auburn 6-2  I should know better!!

Sat, Nov 5   vs Florida 7-2  Florida also has serious QB issues.  Home field will be the difference.

Sat, Nov 12 vs LSU 7-3  Sooner or later they'll play well against us, right?

Sat, Nov 19 @Miss St 8-3 

Sat, Nov 26 @ Missouri  9-3 

But, as Steef pointed out, there are way too many variables involved right now.  I could see 7-5 very easily, but I could see 10-2 as well.

My biggest question is still our pass defense: safety play and LB drops meshing the way they should.  We were so bad last fall, and I'm still questioning our safeties.

If Paul Rhoads gets our secondary to match our front 7 play, we are going to be in double digit wins!!

if that is going to be what makes THE difference than we are in good shape! I trust PR to get that done.

[WilsonHog]

I expect to spend all or part of five or six weekends in Fayetteville next fall, looking forward to each one. I expect to call the Hogs, sing my alma mater, and watch Razorback football for my 42nd year. I expect to eat a fair number of meals at Herman's, the Catfish Hole, and Grub's. Each Sunday, I expect to make the 5-hour drive home, equal parts sad that I have to come home and thankful for spending a weekend doing what I love.

[Tejano Jawg]

I expect to spend all or part of five or six weekends in Fayetteville next fall, looking forward to each one. I expect to call the Hogs, sing my alma mater, and watch Razorback football for my 42nd year. I expect to eat a fair number of meals at Herman's, the Catfish Hole, and Grub's. Each Sunday, I expect to make the 5-hour drive home, equal parts sad that I have to come home and thankful for spending a weekend doing what I love.

I just wanna be his date.

I'm always optimistic going into the start of the season (why not?). The added excitement this year IS because of all the questions.

How will our new QB do? He may not have one A+/first round WR to throw to, but he has a lot of A-/B+ guys. I think in many games this year, we'll have the better quarterback going in.

We won't know how our RB situation will go until a couple games. Our big back, Kody, is hardly a first down back. Then we have our new boy and Rawleigh returning. RWIII has speed, hands and really was getting a feel for running behind his blockers when he got hurt. Then, there are all those other guys.

And like practically every year, we'll see who steps up on D. Is there a linebacker who got some PT last year who'll emerge? Will Wise be All-American? As mentioned above, will Rhoads make a difference?

I can't wait to feel how revved up I'll be on my first drive up to Fayetteville this fall.

[Keyser Sooieze]

You should be happy if there is a next year, Granny.

exactly--the quality of our program should be especially evident in the climate we see post draft with players excoriating their programs (Ole Miss, Auburn) or active players facing suspensions, arrests, and all the other stuff that seems to run rampant around us. I am happy we're who we are, and I don't need a Spring game to feel excited about not only the show we'll have on the field, but the young men our program is producing. Wins and losses? It's always--always a crapshoot. No one can expect anything really in terms of W/L. That's why we watch. Can we expect decent human beings to graduate from UA? That IS something I've come to expect--and I'm glad for it.

[lefty08]

exactly--the quality of our program should be especially evident in the climate we see post draft with players excoriating their programs (Ole Miss, Auburn) or active players facing suspensions, arrests, and all the other stuff that seems to run rampant around us. I am happy we're who we are, and I don't need a Spring game to feel excited about not only the show we'll have on the field, but the young men our program is producing. Wins and losses? It's always--always a crapshoot. No one can expect anything really in terms of W/L. That's why we watch. Can we expect decent human beings to graduate from UA? That IS something I've come to expect--and I'm glad for it.

Well said

It's also possible to field a really good team full of great young men. Sadly, we don't see much of that in college football anymore

[code red]

I think TCU might be a toss up. They lose 4 of their 5 starters on the O-Line, 2 of their 4 starting WR's, their QB and their starting RB on offense. Their losses are less severe on Defense though they do lose 2 starting D-Linemen, 1 LB and 1 FS. They look a lot like us.

Plus that atmosphere is going to make a difference too.  I expect standing room only and temporary bleachers for that one.  Those fans will be salivating.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Plus that atmosphere is going to make a difference too.  I expect standing room only and temporary bleachers for that one.  Those fans will be salivating.

Somehow I think the Hogs playing in front of 100,000+ fans will prepare them for dealing with the 50,000 they'll see in Forth Worth, no matter how much salivating their fans do.

[Pork Twain]

I was around 9-4 to 7-5 before this practice and I still am.  I will try to update my prediction after each and every practice going forward.

Sat, Sept 3 vs LA Tech 1-0

Sat, Sept 10 @ TCU 1-1 could easily be a Loss

Sat, Sept 17 vs Texas State 2-1

Sat, Sept 24 vs Texas A&M* 3-1

Sat, Oct 1   vs Alcorn State 4-1

Sat, Oct 8 vs Alabama 4-2

Sat, Oct 15 vs Ole Miss 5-2 could easily be a Loss

Sat, Oct 22 @ Auburn 6-2

Sat, Nov 5   vs Florida 7-2 could easily be a Loss

Sat, Nov 12 vs LSU 7-3

Sat, Nov 19 @Miss St 7-4

Sat, Nov 26 @ Missouri8-4

Bowl Game 9-4

I thought we would beat aTm and if we would have gotten the TD on the goal line replay, I think we might have kept momentum and won that one.

[DLUXHOG]

not much 11-2...