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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Tai_Mai_Shu

losing my tail on MMA so going to try to press my luck again

2u parlay on

Jake Ellenberger -160
Johny Hendricks - 130
Bobby Voelker +155

2u each on
Jake Ellenberger
Johny Hendricks

widespreadsooie

Haven't liked a play in awhile as much as I do TN -1.5 today.

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on March 15, 2013, 10:48:05 am
two games in a row the Pens have pulled one out in the 3rd.  Their Offense is explosive and once they get one, watch out.  They'll likely get another in the next 5


Yes they are. Won 4 units on pens and lost 2 on Blue Jackets.  At least the took it to shoot out.
Let's make some waves.

LGHOG

Todays early wagers in CBB:

Memphis -6...as soon as I bet the 6 the line went down to 5...UUUGGGHHHH.
Miami Fla -2
Vandy +3
VCU -8...I bet this one pretty big...$100 on the spread.

Just added the Spurs on a parlay...-15 and under 200.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Pens are due for a loss, but riding them again today. Money line. 3 units to win two.

Caps money line 2 units to win 4
Let's make some waves.

LGHOG


LGHOG


LGHOG


LGHOG


Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Blackhawks tonight 270.00 to win 200.00

Anaheim 300.00 to win 370.00
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

When I bet a hoops game and win it means I'm on a roll.  Great comeback cover by the Ville last night.

Riding the Pens again today.  Gonna continue doing so until the burn me.

Pens 270 to win 200. Buffalo 200 to win 240
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

UL down 16 w/ 15 to play...and wins by 17? Dominant 2nd H.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

 

LGHOG

Today I'm playing:


Miami U -3
Ole Miss +11
VCU +2

Heat -8

LGHOG


LGHOG

I am posting this so it can possibly help those who fill out their tourney brackets and who desire to win money.


14 Most Important Bracket Picking Tips

FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 112
#15 seeds are 6 for 112

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 24 of 28 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 22 of 24 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#10 and #12 seeds combined win about half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 26 of 28 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only once in 28 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 7 of 448 teams (1.6%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
72% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced

Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 22 of 28 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 112 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 27 years

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Only 6 times since 1979 has two #1 seeds made the finals

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 24 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

LGHOG

ODDS TO WIN 2013 MENS NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT
GEORGIA DOME -- ATLANTA, GA
MONDAY, APRIL 8, 2013

LOUISVILLE 9-2
INDIANA 7
DUKE 8
FLORIDA 8
GONZAGA 12
MIAMI FL 8
KANSAS 10
MICHIGAN ST 18
MICHIGAN 18
GEORGETOWN 18
OHIO ST 15
WISCONSIN 25
SYRACUSE 30
ST LOUIS 30
NEW MEXICO 30
PITTSBURGH 50
ARIZONA 50
NORTH CAROLINA 50
VCU 50
NC STATE 60
KANSAS ST 60
MARQUETTE 40
MISSOURI 75
OKLAHOMA ST 100
MINNESOTA 100
NOTRE DAME 100
UNLV 100
MEMPHIS 100
CREIGHTON 100
BUTLER 100
UCLA 100
COLORADO 300
ILLINOIS 200
CINCINNATI 300
OREGON 100
SAN DIEGO ST 300
TEMPLE 500
VILLANOVA 500
IOWA ST 500
COLORADO ST 500
OKLAHOMA 500
WICHITA ST 300
CALIFORNIA 300
ST MARY'S 1000
DAVIDSON 1000
BELMONT 1000
OLE MISS 500
LASALLE 1000
BOISE ST 1000
FIELD 150

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Avs tonight 2 units to win 3.5

San Jose 2 units to win 3
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Hooch

Alright.  I haven't been on in a while but getting back on the horse for tomorrow.  I am a little over .500 on the basketball year, but I usually do pretty well on the tourney. 

I love memphis +1.5 tomorrow.  I guess I am buying the hook but we are still talking about a 30+ win team.  I think St. Mary's is getting a lot of love for their run last year. 

Going Butler -4.5 and Marq -3.5

widespreadsooie

Like Memphis +1, Bucknell+4, Montana+13, and OK St-2.5

LGHOG

Maryland -4.5
Harvard +11
Memphis -1.5
Zags -22.5
Oregon +2

IBGPN

my ncaab plays for today...memphis -1.5, bucknell +4, davidson +3.5 and new mexico st. +9.

LGHOG

Won 4 out of 5 yesterday. Let's see about today.


tOSU under 67 1st half.
Arizona St. +9
OU + 3
tOSU under 145
Nova +4.5
Duke -18.5
3 team parlay...IU -22.5/FLA -20.5/KU -21

 

Hooch

two of 3 yesterday, will post mine later, I ended up doing a 6 team teaser that all I need is duke -14 to cover 50 to win 300 but I didn't post because I did it late. 

LGHOG

Quote from: Hooch on March 22, 2013, 11:20:47 am
two of 3 yesterday, will post mine later, I ended up doing a 6 team teaser that all I need is duke -14 to cover 50 to win 300 but I didn't post because I did it late.


IMO, don't worry about posting late. You can always copy and paste and the post the actual wagers from the book you use. Also, I trust until done wrong. Hope that makes sense Hooch. So post what you bet even though late if you would like to.

Hooch

Quote from: LGHOG on March 22, 2013, 11:43:43 am

IMO, don't worry about posting late. You can always copy and paste and the post the actual wagers from the book you use. Also, I trust until done wrong. Hope that makes sense Hooch. So post what you bet even though late if you would like to.
GameDate   User/Phone   Date Placed   Sport   Description   Risk/Win
Ticket#:21342235
Mar 21 12:22 PM
Mar 21 09:41 AM
Mar 21 09:15 AM
Mar 21 11:46 AM
Mar 21 10:40 AM
Mar 22 09:18 AM
INTERNET / -1   Mar 20 02:07 PM   
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
CBB
6T 6FB-4BK PTS.Ties Demote
[712] MARQUETTE +½-110 (B+4)
[714] BUTLER -½-110 (B+4)
[716] MICHIGAN STATE -7-110 (B+4)
[718] MEMPHIS U +5½-110 (B+4)
[725] WICHITA STATE +8½-110 (B+4)
[824] DUKE -14-110 (B+4)

Hooch

I am going

NC st -4.5
cinci +3

and a 4 team teaser

4T 6FB-4BK PTS. Ties Demote
[825] CINCINNATI +7½-110 (B+4)
[832] INDIANA U -18-110 (B+4)
[834] NC STATE -½-110 (B+4)
[846] KANSAS STATE -2½-110 (B+4)

LGHOG

Good luck Hooch and thanks for that. I honestly think all of us should do it if late. OR just post it anyway. I have ZERO probs with being late because I can read thru the BS. It's like following a capper and me and another follows the same one, makes the same bet, and the lines differ badly for each of us. That is a straight out lie. I hate that.


I added Gtown -14. This line is confusing. Gtown has one of the best D's in the country. May be a Final 4 team. This SHOULD almost end up like the Syracuse game yesterday. What am I missing here with this spread? I have studied FGC and I cannot see them staying anywhere near 14. The line makers know their stuff though. What do they see? Can't figure it out.

Hooch

Quote from: LGHOG on March 22, 2013, 12:31:29 pm
Good luck Hooch and thanks for that. I honestly think all of us should do it if late. OR just post it anyway. I have ZERO probs with being late because I can read thru the BS. It's like following a capper and me and another follows the same one, makes the same bet, and the lines differ badly for each of us. That is a straight out lie. I hate that.


I added Gtown -14. This line is confusing. Gtown has one of the best D's in the country. May be a Final 4 team. This SHOULD almost end up like the Syracuse game yesterday. What am I missing here with this spread? I have studied FGC and I cannot see them staying anywhere near 14. The line makers know their stuff though. What do they see? Can't figure it out.

I can't really figure it out either, I am probably going to play it after I see how the early games pan out.  I like to bet as the day goes especially in the tourney because you can sometime get a feel on how the day is going.  Last night before that NM game I almost got on harvard because nothing crazy had happened all day, something nuts always happens. 

Only reason g'town makes me think twice, it seems like they always crap the bed in the tourney, its probably not factual but that is what it seems like to me. 

LGHOG

Remember UConn 2 years ago with Kimba Walker? Gtown has a guy named Otto Porter (sorry if spelling is wrong). Walker led them to the NC. This Porter guy is the best guard and the Larkin guy from Miami there is. Can't be stopped. This -14 is very odd.

LGHOG

Hey Jeff. Would like for you to get in this conversation.

LGHOG

I blew it on the Zags last night and now blew it on Duke.  :puke:


Let's kill em with the rest. We can hope.

Hooch

Quote from: LGHOG on March 22, 2013, 01:32:20 pm
I blew it on the Zags last night and now blew it on Duke.  :puke:


Let's kill em with the rest. We can hope.

That little BS layup they let them have at the end of the game cost me $300. Actually only 50 but I should have won. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: LGHOG on March 22, 2013, 12:57:11 pm
Hey Jeff. Would like for you to get in this conversation.


Sorry LGHOG.  See post below.  I goofed up the quote in this one.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson



Get in on what? The Georgetown line being so low?  Guess it ended up actually with the wrong team being favored. :)

Actually I contemplated playing some Tourney games.  Only played one so far. Louisville in their opener.  I got them winning it all so may bet a few along the way.

Seriously though.  Georgetown should have beat that squad by 30.  This is another prime example of why I don't really play much hoops.  Wildly unpredictable,  too many teams now with top notch talent.  It is virtually impossible for one person to (properly ) handicap college hoops without it being a full time job.

As for the NBA well to me it's just garbage and don't even watch anymore, but even I know it seems the Heat have been a pretty solid bet. ;$
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Louisville -10 today over Co St 10 unit dime play.
Let's make some waves.

McHogLovin

Switching books.  Where do you guys recommend I relocate to?  I'd like to play on at least 2 so I can pick up an extra point here and there on some games.  Is Bovada any good?  They have great reviews but every site that lists them as the best also seems to advertise for them big time.

WILL CLINTON

Won my first College BBall games today, took Louisville -3 for 2nd half, and under 71 total for 2nd half. Parlayed and played straight up.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

LGHOG

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on March 23, 2013, 07:01:28 pm
Won my first College BBall games today, took Louisville -3 for 2nd half, and under 71 total for 2nd half. Parlayed and played straight up.


Very nice Will.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on March 23, 2013, 07:01:28 pm
Won my first College BBall games today, took Louisville -3 for 2nd half, and under 71 total for 2nd half. Parlayed and played straight up.

Me and IBGPN both hit that game while watching up here at the tattoo shop

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Taking the dime I won on Louisville and Putting it on Cuse tonight -7

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Well the Cuse cost me my winnings earlier in the day from Ville.  Ugh. Syracuse was easily a dozen or more points better than Cal, but that's hoops.  Couple desperation three balls drop for cal in the last 30 seconds coupled with a few missed free throws by the orange and you miss a push by a point.

Oh Well!
Let's make some waves.

yraciv


WILL CLINTON

Looked around the rx forums and put together 4 quick bets

1st half Duke -3
Illinois +10.5
Illinois +500 ML
LaSalle +150 ML

The money line bet on Illinois was basically because it was so high. I have no idea if they have a chance to win or not. The LaSalle money line and Illinois spread bet were from a bookie posting his needs to level out the betting. He's 28-34 on the day. I took Duke in the first half because I like Duke when Arkansas isn't playing them.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

yraciv


WILL CLINTON

Ohio St +3.5
La Salle +4.5
Syracuse +5
La Salle ML
Syracuse ML
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Hit OSU, adding

Cuse +6 2nd half
Under 73 2nd half
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

5-2 yesterday...

Today I'm on

Louisville -10.5
kansas -2
Duke -2
Florida -14
under in louisville, kansas and florida games

got all kinds of parlays and straight up bets with these.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

LGHOG