NBA drafting HS players

[Niels Boar]

College pundits and sports writers still frequently criticize NBA GMs for drafting HS players.  I was just looking at some past drafts.  In terms of on-the-court results a GM should be fired if he isn't looking seriously at HS athletes.  Their hit rate is very good, better than college players.  It's  easy to forget how many college upperclassmen are busts.  After all, Joe Smith and Olowokandi were former #1's.  And, in terms of value for a pick, HS players are more likely to be a steal on upside.

Kevin Garnett was taken 5th when Joe Smith was #1.  Stackhouse was #3 that year.  Kobe Bryant was 13th and Jermaine O'Neal 17th (Note: Steve Nash 15th) behind Marcus Camby(#2),  Lorenzen Wright(#7), Samaki Walker(#9), and Todd Fuller(#11).  Tracy McGrady was 9th behind Keith Van Horn(#2), Antonio Daniels(#4)  and Adonal Foyle(#8).  Rashard Lewis was a second-round pick in a very strong draft (Bibby, Carter, Nowitzki, Jamison, Pierce, Wells).  Sill, seniors like Bryce Drew and Roshown McLeod were taken in the first round. 

Some high-schoolers have been reaches like Bender(5th) and Darius Miles(3rd).  However, considering how few draftees make big impacts outside the early lottery, it is difficult to argue that going young isn't a good gamble.  The caveat is that many teams have not been patient enough to enjoy the fruits of a good pick.  See Portland and O'Neal.

[Amityvillehogger]

Jermaine O'Neals complaning that they are discriminating against blacks if they pass this rule of 20 yrs of age.  What is that saying about the african american race?

[JIHawg]

Jermaine O'Neals complaning that they are discriminating against blacks if they pass this rule of 20 yrs of age. What is that saying about the african american race?

You'll notice that there's no pressure on organized baseball to quit drafting high school whiteboys.  Maybe Jermaine is on to something.

[Flatfoot]

Pork and Beans,

I don't think it is a racial profile for the NBA to suggest an age limit.  18 year olds in the high profile status of the NBA, IMHO is totally different than an 18 yr old in the minors of MLB.  Not many 18 to 20 yr olds in the majors.  Gives the baseball kids a fair amount of time to adjust to the riggors of being a professional athlete.  Besides I am partial to seeing these kids as possible Razorbacks basketball players, remember (Al Jefferson)

[DirkPiggler]

College pundits and sports writers still frequently criticize NBA GMs for drafting HS players. I was just looking at some past drafts. In terms of on-the-court results a GM should be fired if he isn't looking seriously at HS athletes. Their hit rate is very good, better than college players. It's easy to forget how many college upperclassmen are busts. After all, Joe Smith and Olowokandi were former #1's. And, in terms of value for a pick, HS players are more likely to be a steal on upside.

Kevin Garnett was taken 5th when Joe Smith was #1. Stackhouse was #3 that year. Kobe Bryant was 13th and Jermaine O'Neal 17th (Note: Steve Nash 15th) behind Marcus Camby(#2), Lorenzen Wright(#7), Samaki Walker(#9), and Todd Fuller(#11). Tracy McGrady was 9th behind Keith Van Horn(#2), Antonio Daniels(#4) and Adonal Foyle(#8). Rashard Lewis was a second-round pick in a very strong draft (Bibby, Carter, Nowitzki, Jamison, Pierce, Wells). Sill, seniors like Bryce Drew and Roshown McLeod were taken in the first round.

Some high-schoolers have been reaches like Bender(5th) and Darius Miles(3rd). However, considering how few draftees make big impacts outside the early lottery, it is difficult to argue that going young isn't a good gamble. The caveat is that many teams have not been patient enough to enjoy the fruits of a good pick. See Portland and O'Neal.

Isn't the standard rookie contract a three-year deal?  If so, a team is not likely to get its moneys worth on a high school player, unless the kid is a can't miss type (Lebron or Kobe).   The team who drafts the kid gets to develop him for three years without much production in return, only to see the finished product go to another team via free agency. 

If the league is going to commit to drafting high school players, they need to go all out like MLB and develop a working farm system.  Give each team a NBDL feeder team, and send the guys who aren't ready to the farm team for minor league wages (other than signing bonus).  That way the teams aren't out nearly as much money as they would be on a Kwame' Brown type player who rides the pine for most of his career while drawing top rookie pay. 

Selfishly, I'd like to see the NBA also use the MLB draft rule as well.  Make high schoolers eligible for the draft, but if they choose not to enter and to attend college, make them ineligible to be drafted again until after three years (two if they go the JUCO route).  While I don't see the benefit for the NBA (which means it will never happen), this could help the college game.

[Niels Boar]

Isn't the standard rookie contract a three-year deal?  If so, a team is not likely to get its moneys worth on a high school player, unless the kid is a can't miss type (Lebron or Kobe).   The team who drafts the kid gets to develop him for three years without much production in return, only to see the finished product go to another team via free agency. 

I don't think that has been a problem.  Garnett, Kobe (after being traded on draft day), Rashard Lewis, and Jermaine O'Neal stuck with their rookie teams.  Portland traded O'Neal voluntarily for Dale Davis to make a championship run with more experience.  Horrible move.  Chandler and Curry are still with with Chicago.  McGrady, I believe, is the exception, but he had already established himself as a very good player with Toronto.  Lebron might leave Cleveland, but he has required little development compared to most rookies.  Teams seem to have been able to hang on to prospects they like.  It's a risk with all rookies.  Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton and Gilbert Arenas are making contribtions for playoff teams that didn't draft them, many due to bad trades.  Evaluating their own young players doesn't seem to be a strength among NBA organizations.  Boston gave up on Billups and Johnson quickly.

Drafting big guys out of high school has generally worked out well.  If I were a GM, I'd be leery of drafting guards under 6' 4'' out of high school, though.  A lot of the best guards (Nash, Andre Miller, Arenas) weren't even highly recruited.  The little guys are harder to judge.  This Georgia signee that has declared is probably making a big mistake.  The little guys are sometimes vastly overrated.  Kenny Anderson was declared the best little man ever.  Right.

[xkyrie]

Any rule denying access to athletes once they are 18 is more grand-standing ridiculousness. Using the maturity argument means that those who willingly enlist in the armed forces at 18 are not in control of their decisions; thus, they should not be allowed to enlist. If you can die and kill legally for your country, there is no logical reason why a team and an athlete cannot mutually decide on an employer/employee contract. Basketball is a sport, for god's sake, not some sort of mythically-proportioned necessity that needs to be over-regulated.

[PennHOG]

Any rule denying access to athletes once they are 18 is more grand-standing ridiculousness. Using the maturity argument means that those who willingly enlist in the armed forces at 18 are not in control of their decisions; thus, they should not be allowed to enlist. If you can die and kill legally for your country, there is no logical reason why a team and an athlete cannot mutually decide on an employer/employee contract. Basketball is a sport, for god's sake, not some sort of mythically-proportioned necessity that needs to be over-regulated.

I remember hearing a story about Kwame Brown of the Wizards having a hard time outside of basketball because he didn't know how to do the basic things like laundry, keeping a house, and money management.  When your in the millitary (someone else will have to confirm this since I wasn't) you are taught everything from shooting a morter to making up your bed and shining your shoes.  I don't think it's a good comparison.  Look at LeBron James and the poor decision he's made with this agent situation.  This is immaturity.  In the military you have to prove yourself before you can ever get in a position to make a decision about yourself.  It's apples and oranges.  There have been exceptions but I would need a different reason other than that "18 year olds can enlist".

[tigerinhogtown]

My position has always been that they should let as many go to the NBA as possible.  Here's my reasoning, for every kid that goes pro, skipping college, one more has the chance to get a college education. 

How many of these players that are forced to go NCAA for 2-3 years will make use of the chances?  That kid that gets the last free ride knows basketball won't be his livelyhood - he will do everything in his power to get his degree and it will make one more person better for life.

On top of this, I've always felt the NBA would be best served if each team EXPANDED it's roster, created a JV team that played before the main event.  This JV team would have a top age limit on it and would insure every kid that didn't get moved up would have an education account to fall back on to allow college education after they have given the NBA their best shot.  Why should the NCAA be the NBA's farm team.

[PorcineSublime]

I'm not sure how the JV thing would work out, but I am a huge believer in the minor league system. Even the most phenominal baseball players have to start at A ball ( a very elite few at AA). As someone else stated, this also has the added benefit of giving them time to adjust to the rigors of pro sports. The added advantage would be for the HS guys who do not pan out at first. They might bloom later and it would not be a one shot deal. I know that we have had the CBA and now the NBDL, but for the most part not many success stories of people getting to the NBA from the CBA. Hopefully the NBDL will be a better fit. I Would like to see it as a multi level system like what the MLB folks have going, but at least it is a start.

As for the 20 yo limit being racially motivated, I think that JO has been listens to Reverend Al too much. Yes it will affect mostly blacks as that is the NBA's makeup. But my in opinion it is an honest attempt to keep from killing the college game and to save the owners from their own greed. Not to mention the fact that it might be good for the kid. If he is really that good, he will not get worse by playing a couple of years in college and he might just learn some coping skills to keep him out of trouble later.JMO

[tophawg19]

the nbdl was a step in the right direction. let's face it college isn't for everyone . i spent 1 semester
there and hated evry minute of it except for the parties . the kid who signs to play college for 1 or 2 years ie. al jefferson type guys are going to do just enough to get by in class so that is a waste of a scholarship and a education for someone who isn't going to follow up at least not likely some do
but most don't . for the ones who are like i was if they can't make the jump to the nba start a draft
for the nbadl .

[xkyrie]

Apples and oranges are apples and oranges. Please, let's avoid cliché like the plague. Using syllogistic analysis, my analogy is valid. I double-checked. The military is the perfect comparison, except for most join for lack of an alternative, whereas the average NBA wannabe is very enthusiastic in regards to the bnjs.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/story/8469837