2016 SEC Football Projections

[jbcarol]

CBS Sports predicts Alabama, Clemson will meet again in playoffs

Has Alabama as the No. 3 seed playing No. 2 seed Clemson in a rematch of last seasons national championship game.

[jbcarol]

Predicting every Mississippi State game in 2016

Projected record: 6-6, 2-6 SEC; Seventh in the SEC West

Arkansas – Nov. 19 in Starkville, Miss.

Coming off a physically grueling game with Alabama late in the season combines the worst scenarios into one. Arkansas' power run offense wears teams down, especially in November. The Razorbacks have historically peaked in the month, which does not bode well for a Bulldogs team that could be struggling at this point of the year.

Prediction: Mississippi State loss

[jbcarol]

Predicting every Arkansas game in 2016

Florida – Nov. 5 in Fayetteville, Ark.

Should be one of the more intriguing matchups of the season. Florida brings back an elite defense, but is still unproven on offense under Jim McElwain. Arkansas has to replace plenty of top players on offense, but it has a strong identity. Two months into the season, the offensive line should also begin to find its rhythm.
Razorbacks will be able to make just a few more plays on offense to pull off the win.

Prediction: Arkansas win

[jbcarol]

ESPN finally releases SEC preseason power rankings

Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
Texas A&M
Arkansas

4 SEC East teams anchor down the ranking.

[jbcarol]

Top of the West

X-factors, which include returning starters, turnover margin, fumble-recovery rate, special teams, strength of schedule, timing of the bye week and players likely to swing the momentum of a game with a single explosive play

1. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

Positives: Turnover margin, fumble-recovery rate

Negatives: Field-goal kicking, strength of schedule

Although the Hogs play a lot of good teams — seven of which won at least nine games in 2015 — most of the toughest tests will come at home. The trip to TCU in Week 2 is a doozy, but Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida all have to come to Fayetteville. Arkansas' three true SEC road games (not counting Texas A&M in Arlington), are against teams that went a combined 7-17 in league play last year.

The bye week isn't until Week 9 but gives the Razorbacks time to rest up for the Gators and Tigers in consecutive weeks.

Thirteen returning starters (second-most in the West), including nine on defense, set a solid foundation for a team that has been trending up for two years and was painfully close to an even bigger breakthrough last fall. They went 3-3 in one-possession games.

Arkansas ranked 16th nationally in average field position margin, per SB Nation's Bill Connelly, had the West's second-best turnover margin (plus-7) and led the SEC in fumble recovery rate, pouncing on 65.5 percent (of theirs and opponents').

One thing that must improve: Cole Hedlund hitting a league-worst 60 percent of his field goals. But he was a freshman, so we'll cut the kid some slack. He did make all 58 extra-point attempts.

[jbcarol]

Bruce Feldman ‏@BruceFeldmanCFB 3h3 hours ago

Noticed a big difference in how much more physical & mature #TAMU looks ESP on D from years past. Look a lot deeper & not so young any more.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/766750979052146688

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_AJC/status/766793647878656000

Bama is projected to be the Top of the West

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/767165381140160512

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_AJC/status/767125506219126784

Picks Vols on top and Mizzou last.

[jbcarol]

Ralph D. Russo Verified account
‏@ralphDrussoAP

The AP  preseason Top 25

http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

1 Bama
5 LS
9 Vols
11 OM
13 TCU
18 UG
25 UF

Among others receiving votes (points listed): A&M 81, ... Arkansas 14, Texas 12, ..., Toledo 2.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/767730070274191363

SEC West No. 7: Auburn (5-7, 2-6 SEC)

SEC West No. 5: Arkansas (7-5, 4-4 SEC)
Hogs are physical and good, but they're inexperienced in some key spots (at QB and on the O-line). At least they get some of their roughest SEC opponents at home (Bama, Ole Miss, UF and LSU).

SEC West No. 1: LSU (11-1, 7-1 SEC)

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/768097055579508736

Greg McElroy and Clint Stoerner go through the 2016 Razorbacks football schedule game-by-game to make predictions.

Overall record: 9-3 (6-2, SEC)

Sept. 10 at TCU– Loss

Sept. 24 at Texas A&M– Loss

Oct. 8 vs. Alabama– Win
Oct. 15 vs. Ole Miss– Win
Oct. 22 at Auburn– Win
Nov. 5 vs. Florida– Win
Nov. 12 vs. LSU– Loss

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/767916310810460160

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/767900347713089536

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/768176558293090304

The Hogs backfield will be just fine

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/768566803559768064

[jbcarol]

Matt Jones ‏@KySportsRadio 13h13 hours ago

SEC Network predicts Kentucky to lose to Vanderbilt...and still go 8-4: http://kentuckysportsradio.com/football-2/the-sec-network-predicts-kentuckys-2016-football-season/ ...

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Carvell_AJC/status/768897961799606272

"For me it's more of I think the defense is going to be really, really good," Herbstreit said. "I think they're going to play with a chip on their shoulder. I think they're going to be mad at the world when they play this year. I think defensively they're going to stay in almost every game that they play and then it's just a matter of the head coach, Gus Malzahn, and the offense finding ways to put enough points up on the board to win."

https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/768864828794470401

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/769369391838429185

[jbcarol]

Ranking the most significant games on Florida's 2016 schedule

Nov. 5 at Arkansas (Fayetteville, Ark.)

No SEC team wants to head into Fayetteville this late in the season after seeing the Razorbacks go 4-2 against ranked opponents the last two Novembers. It's also a place the Gators have very little familiarity or experience. Florida has not played Arkansas on the road since 2008.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/768542317804343297

[jbcarol]

Bama is double-figure favorite to beat USC

Crimson Tide is a 10 1/2-point favorite to beat the Trojans when they meet at 7 p.m. Saturday in Arlington, Texas.

Back in January, the first odds offered on this game had Alabama a 14-point favorite to beat USC.

The Trojans are coming off an 8-6 season that ended with three losses in the final four games.

[jbcarol]

Connor
‏@cmcclainn

You guys have both Florida and UGA losing the same game 😂😂😂😂😂 This is a joke @SECNetwork @mspear96

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/770414502860824576

20. Georgia
Kirby Smart takes over a pretty young team with uncertainty at QB and an almost entirely new front seven. But if Nick Chubb...

17. Ole Miss
Rebels actually have only two more returning starters back than Ohio State does, but they do have a terrific QB in Chad Kelly and a very athletic group of receivers...

15. A&M
OU grad transfer Trevor Knight's presence as a leader is key for a locker room that needed it. Knight is greeted by some very gifted receivers, fronted by sophomore star Christian Kirk.

7. Tennessee

3. Bama
Once again, the Tide enter the season for the third year in a row with uncertainty at QB.

2. LSU
I haven't budged on my surprise SEC pick. I think Year 3 in the system for QB Brandon Harris will be a turning point for him.

[jbcarol]

Scarblog: Tennessee auditions to become this year's Auburn

It's a measure of the rollercoaster Auburn football has become that the definition of "this year's Auburn" has changed so drastically in recent years.

In 2014, after Gus Malzahn's first Auburn team climbed from worst to first in the SEC all the way to the brink of a national championship, a lot of teams wanted to be that year's Auburn.

In 2016, after the Tigers plummeted from No. 6 to 7-6, no one is volunteering to be this year's Auburn - but No. 9 Tennessee has taken the first misstep in that direction.

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 in overtime Thursday night looked suspiciously like Auburn 27, Jacksonville State 20 in overtime on Sept. 12, 2015.

It's not every day a top-10 team from the SEC has to come from behind on its home field to force overtime to beat a current or recent member of the Football Championship Subdivision.

As good as Jax State was in 2015, and the Gamecocks made it all the way to the FCS title game, their ability to push Auburn to the wire didn't just say something positive about them. It also said something negative about the Tigers. It was an early indication they were not going to live up to their preseason ranking.

It wasn't a fluke for either team. It was an omen for both.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/finebaum/status/771791663354216448

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/AP_Top25/status/772479101366075393

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/772443820604608512

10. A&M

1. Bama

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/773016122933272576


Note: One of Vandy and South Carolina had to win.

[jbcarol]

FWAA's Super 16 poll

1. Bama
9. UG
14. Vols

OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: ... Texas A&M (86), Ole Miss (67), LSU (53), ... , Florida (3)

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/773204776423006208

8. Arkansas: The Razorbacks got a scare from Louisiana Tech and needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to escape with a 21-20 victory. They'll need a better effort to go on the road and beat the Big 12 team they face on Saturday: TCU (which got a scare of its own from South Dakota State).

14. Mississippi State: The post-Dak Prescott era looks awfully bleak after losing to Group of 5 opponent and four-touchdown underdog South Alabama. The quarterback battle is ongoing, but the offensive line, running game and defense need to make significant strides this week.

[jbcarol]

FWIW:

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 19h19 hours ago

Tennessee's 8-spot drop in AP poll is 2nd-largest after win since poll went to 25 in 1989.
Auburn dropped 12 after beating Jville St ly.

[jbcarol]

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 24m24 minutes ago

Oklahoma State out, Clemson and Georgia drop.
Welcome Arkansas.
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

1. Bama

15. Vols
16. UG
17. A&M
19. OM
20. LS

23. UF
24. Arkansas

Others receiving votes (points):

TCU (62), ... , Auburn (7)

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/775113347851091969

9. Arkansas (2-0)
Credit Bret Bielema's team for a tough double-overtime win at TCU. The defense shined for three quarters, and QB Austin Allen (17-of-29, 223 yards, three TDs, 0 INTs) made some big throws.

1. Alabama (2-0)
Nick Saban expressed disappointment with his team following the Tide's 38-10 win over Western Kentucky. Clearly he hasn't seen the rest of the field. They'd love to have freshman QB Jalen Hurts.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/775016725704118272

4. Arkansas: The big mover this week was Arkansas, as coach Bret Bielema's bunch picked up a signature road victory at TCU in double overtime. The Razorbacks were the better team for three quarters, and even when adversity struck, they fought back and found a way to win.

6. Tennessee

9. LSU

[jbcarol]

http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll/2017/4

1. Bama

10. A&M

12. UG

14. Vols

17. Hogs
18. LS
19. UF

23. OM

Others SEC receiving votes:

[jbcarol]

Bama cements spot atop list, with surprising challengers trailing

2. A&M: After the past two seasons, it's not about how the Aggies start. It's about how they finish. But as Kevin Sumlin said after Saturday's 29-16 win at Auburn, winning an SEC game on the road is nothing to take lightly. There's still room for improvement, but Texas A&M is beginning to look like one of the best teams in the conference.

3. Arkansas: The Razorbacks made quick work of Texas State with a 42-3 win and now head into conference play with a lot of confidence. A showdown with Texas A&M at JerryWorld -- where the Hogs have lost in OT the past two seasons -- awaits.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/FoxSportsRadio/status/777827721170739200

[jbcarol]

SEC Teams in Sagarin's Top 20

[jbcarol]

ESPN's Chris Low on Bo:

Bo Mattingly ‏@SportsTalkwBo 2h2 hours ago

ESPN's @ClowESPN: Arkansas might be that team in the West that has the best chance to unseat the Crimson Tide.

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/aldotcomSports/status/778983485788811265

[jbcarol]

Early indicator on coming group think:

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/780025060874719232

1 Alabama (1 last week)

10 Tennessee (12)

11 Texas A&M (13)

15 Ole Miss (NR)

23 Florida (17)  ??

24 TCU (NR) ??

Dropped out

Georgia (14)

LSU (16)

Notre Dame (21)

Arkansas (23)

[jbcarol]

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 45m45 minutes ago

My AP ballot: UL Bama OhSt A&M Wis UH Stan Clem Tenn Mich Wash FSU Miami Neb UNC SDSU MichSt Utah Bay VT WVU Boise NDSU OleMiss Ark

[jbcarol]

http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll/2017/5

1. Bama

9. A&M

11. Vols

16. OM

20. Ark

23. UF

25. UG

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/aldotcomSports/status/780097794619080708

Other SEC Receiving Votes (points listed)"

... LSU 30; ...  Auburn 18 ...

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/Michael_Carvell/status/780093340356321280

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/skatz23/status/780035714662694913

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_SEC/status/780090596606083076

5. Arkansas: The Razorbacks' first loss revealed a flawed run defense -- they gave up 11 plays of 10 or more rushing yards and 366 rushing yards total to Texas A&M -- but there are still some elements of a good team here. Quarterback Austin Allen played well, despite a first-half injury, and showed some real toughness. The Hogs must also take care of the ball better; their three turnovers resulted in 17 points for the Aggies.

SEC-East teams "anchor down" the bottom three spots in this ranking

[jbcarol]

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/782570834422562816

Early indicator from the Hog Hater

1 Bama

7 A&M

10 Vols

12 OM

20 UF

23 Ark
24 LS

[jbcarol]

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 4h4 hours ago

Ralph D. Russo Retweeted

ACC matches SEC with 6 ranked teams.
It's the ACC's most ranked teams in 10 years.
Washington has its best ranking since 2000 http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

1 Bama

8 A&M
9 Vols

14 OM

16 Ark

18 UF

Others receiving votes: W. Michigan 76, UCLA 56, LSU 49, North Dakota St. 46, Auburn 46, Georgia 42, Oklahoma St. 41, TCU 26, ...

[jbcarol]

SEC Week 5 Power Rankings

5. Arkansas: The Razorbacks did what they were supposed to do, convincingly defeat an FCS foe

SEC-East teams anchor down the bottom two spots.

#2 v. #3 and #1 v. #5 this week.