Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?

[hogoffate]

Love the opinions and talk;

If Hence is a win bet at 15-1 (doubtful) is a win bet at 6-1?
How "low" will you go to bet him to win?

I'm having trouble choosing a "go to" horse to win.  Classic Empire but odds maybe too low; McCracken - not sure I trust the jockey
Irish War Cry - seemed to win Wood with something left but believe he might have pace problems
Practical Joke - consistent but he needs to make a jump up;  I might lean this way if the odds are real good

[ghostzapper]

It's one of the those years where it seems hard to criticize anyone's selections.  That said, if the Turfway Park winner wins this race, I'm done with horse racing. 

[The Hogfather]

Love the opinions and talk;

If Hence is a win bet at 15-1 (doubtful) is a win bet at 6-1?
How "low" will you go to bet him to win?

I'm having trouble choosing a "go to" horse to win.  Classic Empire but odds maybe too low; McCracken - not sure I trust the jockey
Irish War Cry - seemed to win Wood with something left but believe he might have pace problems
Practical Joke - consistent but he needs to make a jump up;  I might lean this way if the odds are real good

I personally will not bet Hence at anything less than double digits.  I'm starting to look a little closer at Gormley.  He might get my money.  I may end up on Classic Empire if he ends up at 5-1 or greater.

[userpick]

It's one of the those years where it seems hard to criticize anyone's selections.  That said, if the Turfway Park winner wins this race, I'm done with horse racing. 

Now this we can agree on!!

[ghostzapper]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

[porkinsons disease]

Looks like Gunnevera is dropping into single digit odds and surprisingly Patch is really dropping despite drawing the 20 hole.

[ghostzapper]

Dont get the Patch love.  Must be a sympathy vote.

[porkinsons disease]

Dont get the Patch love.  Must be a sympathy vote.

Neither do I

[ghostzapper]

6:30 a.m. Track condition and weather report, per CD website:

TRACK: SLOPPY

TURF: GOOD (Lane 1, on the hedge)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m.. High near 60. West wind 8-to-11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Scratches and changes (as of 6:30, may be more as morning progresses)

https://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-wagering/toteboard/program-changes

[HogFanInBryant]

I can't believe I am saying this but I love a pick 3 I just played with the KD as the last part of it.
1,2,5,12/4,6,11/8,13,14
I rarely feel confident on any exotics of pick 3 or more...may the horse be with me lol!

[ghostzapper]

My apologies. It was the 7, not the 11

[mckinneyhog5]

I'm going with Classic Empire and Irish war Cry on top of Battle of Midway, Gormley, Hence and Pratical Joke. Then Flip it with Gormley and Battle of Midway on top of Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Hence, and Pratical Joke.  Something was strange with the SA derby and don't beleive the horses that ran in it are that bad. Expect them to step up in this spot. If Thunder Snow had a better PP I might have thrown him in some bottom exotics but I'll keep fading the Duabi horses untill they prove me wrong. This race may end up being more about the best jockey then the best horse. GL to all!

Again my two biggest disappointments are Girvins quarter crack issues and Conquest Mo Money not running. I can't believe Joe Sharp would run Girvin in this race with his recent issues if he didn't think he had a chance to win. Maybe the owners pressed him into running Girvin. I can't figure it out but will be sick to my stomach if he found a way to win.

[mckinneyhog5]

I can't believe I am saying this but I love a pick 3 I just played with the KD as the last part of it.
1,2,5,12/4,6,11/8,13,14
I rarely feel confident on any exotics of pick 3 or more...may the horse be with me lol!

If JBE finishes 4th or better I may have to consider never placing a bet on another horse race. Don't mean to knock your pick as I have some questionable ones myself but honestly he was one of my first tosses.

[ghostzapper]

HFB, I gave you bad info in the 11th.  It was 7 who scratched, not 11.  Apologies

[HogFanInBryant]

If JBE finishes 4th or better I may have to consider never placing a bet on another horse race. Don't mean to knock your pick as I have some questionable ones myself but honestly he was one of my first tosses.

His Beyer in the Gotham can't be ignored if you are strictly looking at which horses are capable of running a Beyer at 100 or better, which will win this race.  I truly think now that I have looked over everything that the only 3 capable of putting on a great performance are the Hence, JBE, and CE.  I had to take a stance somewhere to try and break the bank.

[hogoffate]

It's one of the those years where it seems hard to criticize anyone's selections.  That said, if the Turfway Park winner wins this race, I'm done with horse racing. 

Now that's funny!!
If Mr. Ed was eligible, I might take a stab on him if the odds are decent.

[mckinneyhog5]

His Beyer in the Gotham can't be ignored if you are strictly looking at which horses are capable of running a Beyer at 100 or better, which will win this race.  I truly think now that I have looked over everything that the only 3 capable of putting on a great performance are the Hence, JBE, and CE.  I had to take a stance somewhere to try and break the bank.

He hasn't beat anyone worth mentioning and there are more then 3 horses capable of running a 100 beyer but then again I don't go by BSR. This isn't the Gothm and he's facing a better quality field. Works have been subpar and never ran on a off track. That's what I love about horse racing though...everyone's opinion is valid and different at the same time. You got to love the odds though almost the 3rd  longest shot on the board.

[ghostzapper]

Sun is out.

[HogFanInBryant]

He hasn't beat anyone worth mentioning and there are more then 3 horses capable of running a 100 beyer but then again I don't go by BSR. This isn't the Gothm and he's facing a better quality field. Works have been subpar and never ran on a off track. That's what I love about horse racing though...everyone's opinion is valid and different at the same time. You got to love the odds though almost the 3rd  longest shot on the board.

If I hit the pick 3 and he wins the KD I'll be a smilin' fool...

[mckinneyhog5]

If I hit the pick 3 and he wins the KD I'll be a smilin' fool...

For sure would be a shocker like MTB or Giacomo.

[jdelo77]

I'm really liking gunnervera more and more ...

[McKdaddy]

Small ticket on IWC to win.

[ghostzapper]

My take on field:

I project the Beyer needed to win, which I think is a 103, and then look for the horses I think can get there or come close.  The problem is always in identifying all who can as 3 year old improvement comes fast.

Looking at Lee:  Last Beyer (adjusted for today's weight):  89. It is amazing how Asmussen's horses all seem to show a fairly steady path of improvement in their pps and Looking at Lee fits the pattern.  Unfortunately, he's not close enough Beyerwise to make me think this is the race he'll jump enough to win. I don't have him in my exactas

Thunder Snow:  Adjusted last Beyer:  92.5.  Normally we dismiss Dubai horses but, as the American 3 year old crop regresses to low 90 Beyers in prep races, the Dubai horses are going to start getting more consideration.  Thunder Snow won on an off track beating an improving Pletcher 3 year old and getting an adjusted 92.5 for that effort.  Well bred, maybe he runs to it but I'll let him do it without my money.

Fast and Accurate: Adjusted last Beyer: 80.5.  When your best Beyer is an 80 on synthetic, it's easy to throw you out.  Owners wasted the money they made on the Spiral entering him.

Untrapped:  Adjusted last Beyer:  82.  The exception to the improving pattern of most Asmussen horses.  Seems to me he's headed the wrong way.  Toss out for me.

Always Dreaming:   Adjusted last race Beyer:  95  Improving, well-bred, well trained horse.  Easily could be one that moves into the 103 range, but doesn't Pletcher have this exact kind of horse every year that always runs a clunker?  I've been burned by TP too often to get excited by this horse, particularly at 4-5/1.  He had a great work, but can be headstrong and that doesn't play well for Derby.   Might be singing his praises afterward but he doesn't get my money.

State of Honor:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  88.  Front ender who has run three close to identical races Beyerwise.  Unless the track is holding up the front end horses to the wire at post time, he's too slow and will likely be hooked, so I'm tossing.

Girvin:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  89.  Foot problems are now known which makes it hard to back him.  What made it harder is I don't think he's fast enough.

Hence:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  95.  My key.  He is the classic Asmussen horse and has improved every time he's set foot on a race track.  His last was a huge jump that will have many dismissing him as a bounce candidate.  I think his good works over the track and his 6 week layoff say he moves forward.  I'll play him to win and then key him with 5 or 6 others in exactas.

Irap:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  91.5.  Maiden wins a Grade II on a slow pace that would normally be cause for throw out in this race.  But, this one is showing me something that makes me nervous:  10 point improvements in each of his last 3 races. A 400+ Tomlinson in the mud and he's trained by a trainer who knows how to win this race..  Another move forward here and he's in the projected range for the win.  I reluctantly threw him out, but there's an "I told you so" form here if he wins.

Gunnevera:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  86.  Was last race a product of horrendous post or is he a horse that had hit his top level the race before?  I think he's a mid nineties Beyer horses that can't improve enough to win.  I think his odds are too low as well.  Taking a stand against him but can't argue with those who like him.

Battle of Midway:  Adjust last race Beyer:  87.  This horse is identical to State of Honor.  Great trainer but likely hooked on the lead and he's just not fast enough.

Sonneteer:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  86.  Gave lots of folks a couple of thrills in last 2 races at OP, and his closing style suggests the 1 1/4 distance of the Derby would make him a play today.  But he's got to imorove by more than I think he's capable of here.  Arkansas form says he's an upper 80s horse.

JBoysEcho:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  82.  Troubled start in last and ran a clunker, finishing 4th to a maiden.  But his Gotham race merits consideration - an adjusted 98 Beyer.  If you can throw the last race out and, with this trainer, you should be able to, he is among the potential horses who could win.  At his odds, he would be foolish to dismiss, especially with an improved jock on his back.

Classic Empire:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  92.  His BC Juvenile win deservedly grants him most talented horse (at this stage) but the question that has to be answered is whether he is has the foundation.  Obviously I think he needs another race or I wouldn't be betting Hence.  If he does win, he's a legitimate TC candidate in this year's crop.

McCracken:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  86.5.  Another talented horse (3/3 at CD) who has to answer whether the poor performance was a function of lack of foundation or something else.  Sentimental choice for me due to sire and he won his first race this year in my back yard.  He'll be one of the horses I key with Hence, but that's it.

Tapwrit:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  74.5.  Pletcher trainee who, like several other Bluegrass contestants, has to answer for his regressive performance.  Prior to that rave, he had put together a string of improving performances for Pletcher.  He has a win in the slop and the highest Tomlinson in the field for the mud.  I think he winds up being Pletcher's top oerformer today.

Irish War Cry:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  99.5.  I thought this guy had to have the lead to win and then he runs the most visually impressive (and fastest) prep of the bunch in the Wood from just off the pace.  He is bred for the slop and, if he can sit just off the pace and run like he did in the Wood, he won't have traffic issues and they will have trouble running him down.  Hoping that ofer win percentage from 17 hole kicks in.

Gormley:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  87.  Comes off a weak (by historical standards) SA Derby win.  The only thing that keeps me from tossing him completely is a 93 Beyer win in the slop.  Fron end type with speed inside him so going to count on him being hung too wide to make any impact.

Practical Joke:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  90.5.  Obviously showed talent last year with 3rd in BC juvenile.  But, he hasn't improved off of that race much this year and he couldn't run down a maiden in the Bluegrass despite bing forwardly placed.  His trainer will win a Derby eventually, but my money won't be on him.

Patch:  Adjusted last race Beyer:  87.  Outside post.  Blind in one eye.  Too slow.  Pass. 

[cosmodrum]

3 bets:

Classic Empire to win
CE and IWC box exacta
Few bucks on Tapwrit to win

[ghostzapper]

How in the world is Patch 12-1??

[cosmodrum]

How in the world is Patch 12-1??

Chicks at the betting window?

[ghostzapper]

Usually pools this big don't show that kind of stupid betting.  Is there something about this horse we don't know?

[porkinsons disease]

Took Gunnevera on top of most bets. Hopefully, he doesn't drop too far back and gets a decent pace to run at.

[porkinsons disease]

I'm really liking gunnervera more and more ...

Fingers crossed.

[userpick]

$0.50 tri


5,10 with 5,10,15,16,17,19 with 1,2,5,8,9,10,13,14,15,16,17,19

[ghostzapper]

Damn, UP, so close.  Oops.  Thought you had 11.

[porkinsons disease]

Hedged by bets with a $2 5/1 exacta, but Battle of Midway cost me the tri.

[Torqued pork]

Congrats to Pletcher. Let the countdown to Always Dreaming's announced retirement begin.

[ghostzapper]

Typical Derby.  Only one or two horses run to or exceed their potential, the rest stink. 

[porkinsons disease]

Typical Derby.  Only one or two horses run to or exceed their potential, the rest stink. 

Can't disagree. Classic Empire got abused at the break, so he gets a pass from me.

[mckinneyhog5]

Jave to get home and watch race but had the 3rd and 4th place finishers. Had 20 show bet on Battle of Midway so I disnt lose to much. Cant beleive anyone had lookin at lee.

[ghostzapper]

Looking at Lee got a dream trip. 

[GoHogs1091]

Battle of Midway is showing race foundation improvement considering that he did not race at age 2.

A 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, and now a 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

The Preakness should set-up well for Battle of Midway.  It is a lesser distance race, plus with him improving he could be poised to race a monster race, which means he could get out on the front by himself, and win the race (like Oxbow did in 2013).

The horse I was most impressed with today was Arklow.

[mckinneyhog5]

Battle of Midway is showing race foundation improvement considering that he did not race at age 2.

A 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, and now a 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

The Preakness should set-up well for Battle of Midway.  It is a lesser distance race, plus with him improving he could be poised to race a monster race, which means he could get out on the front by himself, and win the race (like Oxbow did in 2013).

The horse I was most impressed with today was Arklow.

Had Oxbow when he won the Preakness and everyone had left him for dead. With that said Conquest Mo Money will be getting my money if everything goes well leading up to Preakness.

[mckinneyhog5]

Looking at Lee got a dream trip. 

Just re watched the race and for a moment I thought Borel was riding Lookin at Lee. Nice move up the rail while the others began to fade. Battle of Midway fought his heart out but wasn't good enough but did hold onto 3rd place. Lookin at Lee will be over bet the rest of the series and won't cash another check.

[mckinneyhog5]

Man, can they switch to any more camera views through the race? Made me nauseous trying to figure out who was in the 2nd and 3rd flight because as soon as I began to make out who was who they'd switch to another angle. Rant over.

[GoHogs1091]

Had Oxbow when he won the Preakness and everyone had left him for dead. With that said Conquest Mo Money will be getting my money if everything goes well leading up to Preakness.

Hopefully, the Preakness field will be at least the following.

Always Dreaming
Battle of Midway
Classic Empire
Looking at Lee
Irish War Cry  (deserves at least one more chance due to bad KD gate position and due to KD traffic trouble)
Conquest Mo Money
Tapwrit
Gunnevera

McCraken has now ran 2 straight clunkers.  He probably doesn't need to be running in the Preakness.

[ghostzapper]

How in the world does one interpret this race?  CE will be the excuse horse.  Lookin at Lee will be the dream trip this race, throw out next race horse.  I wouldn't bet Battle of Midway again with your money.  Conquest Mo Money is the one you want to look at.

[HogFanInBryant]

How in the world does one interpret this race?  CE will be the excuse horse.  Lookin at Lee will be the dream trip this race, throw out next race horse.  I wouldn't bet Battle of Midway again with your money.  Conquest Mo Money is the one you want to look at.

You don't think Battle of Midway could be a tough cookie in one turn mile races?  He's got that kinda long paced stride that usually runs in your Met Mile type races...just my opinion and no doubt he has talent, just maybe asking him to go too far?

[GoHogs1091]

How in the world does one interpret this race?  CE will be the excuse horse.  Lookin at Lee will be the dream trip this race, throw out next race horse.  I wouldn't bet Battle of Midway again with your money.  Conquest Mo Money is the one you want to look at.

Battle of Midway has never ran a bad race.  Here is what he has done this year (from today back to the first race he ran this year).

3rd
2nd
1st
3rd
1st

I don't trust Pletcher getting a horse turned around in 2 weeks and ready for optimal performance.  In fact, if Always Dreaming had not won today I wouldn't have been shocked if Pletcher would have had Always Dreaming skip the Preakness and run him instead in the Belmont.

Pletcher is on record saying that he does not like the 2 week turnaround between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

[HogFanInBryant]

Battle of Midway has never ran a bad race.  Here is what he has done this year (from today back to the first race he ran this year).

3rd
2nd
1st
3rd
1st

I don't trust Pletcher getting a horse turned around in 2 weeks and ready for optimal performance.  In fact, if Always Dreaming had not won today I wouldn't have been shocked if Pletcher would have had Always Dreaming skip the Preakness and run him instead in the Belmont.

Pletcher is on record saying that he does not like the 2 week turnaround between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

I honestly think Battle of Midway is a great horse, who has been asked to run too far.  TP will have tons of pressure from his NY based owners to come to the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line.  I think AD will hand ride win the Preakness honestly...but it will be tough for him to win the Belmont of CE runs.

[ghostzapper]

I don't disagree that BoM is a miler or less.  He's not a classic distance horse and today's performance was fortuity (or the max of his abilities), not a precursor of future classic success.

Today's Beyer was a 102.  That means 2 horses imoroved off of their last races.

[The Hogfather]

I have to say, I also really like the draw for Lookin at Lee, with his deep closing style.  I think the 1 hole is actually good for him and if they go fast up front, he should be closing pretty strongly.  He just seems to always get too far back.  That will probably keep him from winning, but I think he'll be closing late.

I knew the 1 hole, which would normally be a killer for a horse, would be fine and dandy for him.  However, I STILL didn't believe in him enough to include him in the top 2 spots!  Son of a......

Ended up loading up on Classic Empire.  Any chance he had after getting clobbered at the break got erased by going 38-wide into the stretch.  Did well to get 4th.

[mckinneyhog5]

I don't feel bad about my bets just caught some bad luck with CE and Looking at Lee had a perfect rail trip and passed tiring horses in the stretch. Not taking anything away from him just think this was it for him.
I greatly underestimated AD and that's on me but think Classic Empire did well to finish 4th with the trouble he encountered.
I wondered if Hence bounced off his Sunland Derby performance or just didn't take to the track. He maybe a contender for the Belmont and if I was his trainer I would skip the Preakness and target Belmont.
I hope Girvin also skips the Preakness and goes for the Belmont. Didn't feel they should have run him in the KD as that didn't get them anything but possibly a longer road to full recovery.
Since I dropped Girvin ended up adding Irish War Cry and what a waste. Never really liked him but it was between him and AD and when he(AD)became the favorite I chose the higher odds of the two. This was my biggest mistake.
Not much you can take from this race besides only 2 horses had a chance and one got a great trip and the other was roughed up early. AD was for sure the best horse today but still gonna have to prove it in the Preakness and with a dry track, smaller field and some new shooters it could be an interesting race. I still can't beleive the $2 tri payed 16,500. On a sloppy track and a 20 horse field, you need more luck then handicapping skills.
We'll get em in the next two races!