For me, this season will be one of a kind

[Oklahawg]

Good read. You make a great point about how wide open the Wild West is and that the SEC may be locked out of the championship.

However, I don't fully understand what you mean when you say it is a watershed year. A watershed moment is generally a turning point (up or down). I see us steadily building upwards and not yet at any watershed event or downward turn.

Does that make sense?

I think I get your point. I see it as a "watershed" in that we have to ask ourselves (scheduling aside) when will the West align this well for us? Most experienced QB in the division. Experienced go-to skilled players. Experienced OL. Deep DL and DBs. If the schedule was more favorable ... that might affect our predictions but would national talking heads dive in deeply enough to see that?

Do not overlook three games to "warm up" for conference play. None will be pushovers, ala Nicholls State, but all would have to have a lot of stars align to upset the Hogs. Perfect schedule to get things humming. After that, the schedule takes back that early advantage.

The watershed moment - first time things kinda sorta align so that you might be in the CFB and SEC CG discussion come November 1. How do you respond? Not sure there is a clear comparison to the Nutt era, but HDN would wilt with this type of team.

[razorbackkid]

I should read more and post less.  A few minutes ago I started a thread (The Season) without seeing or reading this one.  Yours is better.

Go Hogs.

:razorback:

[reddogjcss]

Nice write up Biggus

[TXArcher]

Very nice read, prime reason I frequent hogville.

[MJ2]

Yep, good write-up.   Year 3 does tend to be a make or break year for coaches.   A great year (10+wins) will likely see us scrambling to keep CBB from being gobbled up by the NFL.    A year with less than 7 wins will see us grumbling for change.   Tough profession, but well paid.

[RedyorNot]

Well done, sir. Your thoughts encapsulate where I am standing as well.

[The Kig]

I am both optimistic and pragmatic about this season. 

Reasons for Optimism:
-Most well rounded team that we have fielded in a very long time.  We are better top to bottom than last year where we should have won 2-3 more games than we did. 
-SEC best OL, TE, RB
-New OC
-SEC West isn't as strong (evidenced by last years bowl season and question marks going into this season) or top heavy as it has been in the past.
-Team focus/accountability.  Even apparent with the recent issues where CBB immediately heard from the upperclassmen about handling the situation. 
-Addition of WR threats will make more teams play us honest, especially if we actually can get them the ball.
-Ben Herbert.  Holy schnikies, this guy is good.  The transformations in team strength have been amazing.
-Depth, for the first time since joining the SEC.  We aren't as deep as some teams, but other than a couple of positions, our season doesn't hinge completely on the 22 starters. 


Pragmatism:
-Defensive "losses"- while we "may" be deeper than most national pundits can see, it is mostly an unproven defense. 
-Was last years miraculous turnaround on D a blip on the radar or is it something we should expect from a CRS team every year?  Only time will tell.
-Is this the year that BA finally breaks through? 
-New OC... made both lists for a reason.
-Every team in the SEC-W is talented.  The margin of error last year between first and last was a missed extra point. 

The sum of the parts has people picking anywhere from 8-4 to 15-0.  Neither of which should be completely shocking.  Personally, I am leaning more towards 12-2

[Biggus Piggus]

However, I don't fully understand what you mean when you say it is a watershed year. A watershed moment is generally a turning point (up or down). I see us steadily building upwards and not yet at any watershed event or downward turn.

In my view, this season is right in the middle between the time of rebuilding and the time of harvesting. The 2015 team has aspects of both. Parts of the program are near maturity; parts remain in building mode.

Similarly, this is a between time for fans, too -- at least for me. We have stepped up from fear in season one to looking for the first breakthrough in year two. We can enter the 2015 season unafraid, but my expectations are still moderated by many factors.

It's unlikely - to me - that my expectations will be as accommodating in the future.

Take for example QB. A lot of my uncertainty is focused on the QB position. This is the last time in Bielema's tenure that Arkansas will be led by a QB who was recruited by somebody else, went through a head coaching change and complete scheme change, followed by another position coach change late in his college career. In the future, I expect them to get the QB position right no matter what. For now, we have what we have, and I don't know what we have.

[smb]

The hogs need to pull a shocker on the road and win all home games.

[uams1989]

I think Bama has a tougher schedule than us this year. For one, they have to play us! That hasn't always increased other's strength of schedule, but hopefully it will for the foreseeable future.

Bama's schedule is rated as the toughest in the nation (pre-season of course) FWIW.

DB better be careful what he wishes for!

[gmarv]

this year is the first year in a long time where I,ve looked at our schedule and think we can match up with everyone on it.can we, will we win em all probable not but I don,t see a team on the schedule that looks like a loss going in.

[EastexHawg]

first time things kinda sorta align so that you might be in the CFB and SEC CG discussion come November 1. 

My, what short memories we have.

If you crave a crazy scenario involving the SEC, a three-way tie in the SEC West is more likely. That would happen if LSU beats Alabama on Nov. 5, Arkansas beats LSU on Nov. 25, and those three teams win the remainder of their games. The tie to play in Atlanta -- and possibly for a chance at the BCS Championship Game -- would get broken by the team with the highest ranking in the final regular-season BCS standings.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/10/bcs_unveils_2011_teams_whose_e.html

[Biggus Piggus]

What might a skeptical outsider say about Arkansas in 2014? I'll dispense with the sheer ignorant comments and craft my own objective critique.

1. Quarterback. Brandon Allen made a lot of progress last season, but the fourth quarter was not good for him. Against Auburn, TAM, Alabama and Missouri, the Hogs under BA converted 3-17 third downs. He completed >50% in all games but Mizzou, which was an understandably tough one that should be disregarded. BA took seven sacks and threw three picks against Alabama and Georgia. INTs against Auburn and Mississippi State were devastating. If pass protection is a little better and receivers a little more effective, BA could have a solid season, stat wise. Will he be capable of making game-winning plays in the fourth quarter? That's what championship QBs do.

It is unclear how many SEC teams have a QB who can make those plays. Is Brandon Allen going to be the guy who leads the Razorbacks to score under pressure, or will Arkansas only win the games they can dominate? His ability to be that playmaker could decide whether the Hogs contend for the SEC title.

2. Offense improvement. Arkansas lost star tailback Jonathan Williams and expects to replace him with a fullback and a 3-star true freshman. Alex Collins has more pressure on him now, and he is likely to wear down as the season progresses. The only highly recruited wide receiver on the team is a skinny junior college transfer. Receivers are there primarily to block. Hunter Henry is a good tight end, but he isn't a gamebreaker (two TDs last season). Brandon Allen should be a more efficient passer as a senior, but with the loss of Williams it is hard to see how the offense improves.

3. The Arkansas defense's worst performances in 2014 were allowing 45 to Auburn and Georgia, 28 to Texas Tech and Texas A&M (in regulation). The most balanced offenses hammered the Hogs, and the big passing teams got four touchdowns. Arkansas displayed little pass rush against teams that knew how to deal with it. The secondary is experienced but lacks high-level, sure pro-type talent. The schedule has several opponents who will score a lot, if the Razorbacks haven't made dramatic progress in dealing with balanced offenses and spread passing.

[Oklahawg]

My, what short memories we have.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/10/bcs_unveils_2011_teams_whose_e.html

Thought this was about CBB. Thought you were smart enough to get that. Sorry for my bold presumptions that you missed.

[CokeHog]

Okla and Biggus,

Thanks for the elaboration. Makes sense.

We are somewhat in a tipping point mode, going from wait and see, to cautious optimism, and now to full blown expectations and hope for the future under a leader we all have confidence in.

[Oklahawg]

Okla and Biggus,

Thanks for the elaboration. Makes sense.

We are somewhat in a tipping point mode, going from wait and see, to cautious optimism, and now to full blown expectations and hope for the future under a leader we all have confidence in.

Yes! I'm the middle, not likely at a high-water mark. While not "under the radar" certainly not he favorite - we are noticed and many talking heads have positioned themselves to jump on the Hog bandwagon quickly if things break the right way. All while being positioned to also be able to make sense of a 7-8 win season.

The glimpses many here anticipate seeing are of a perennially strong program not one prone to massive swings in win/loss record. THAT is one thing we are looking for ... I know I am, anyway.

[threeNout]

I agree this season feels different from any other I can recall. Every other season, "hoping" we were going to be good.

Never recall having this much evidence we ARE going to be good.  The '79 pre season probably the closest.

[PonderinHog]

Yes! I'm the middle, not likely at a high-water mark. While not "under the radar" certainly not he favorite - we are noticed and many talking heads have positioned themselves to jump on the Hog bandwagon quickly if things break the right way. All while being positioned to also be able to make sense of a 7-8 win season.

The glimpses many here anticipate seeing are of a perennially strong program not one prone to massive swings in win/loss record. THAT is one thing we are looking for ... I know I am, anyway.

Sustainability!  We're knocking on the door.  It's about time to kick the SOB in!   :razorback:

(I always liked that Bum speech.)

[Oklahawg]

Sustainability!  We're knocking on the door.  It's about time to kick the SOB in!   :razorback:

(I always liked that Bum speech.)

I like it.

[Justagp]

Thank you Biggus - great post! Saturday can't get here soon enough - let the season begin because I'm feeling great things for the Hogs  :razorback: