Someone is coming away disappointed.

[BenDial]

A pretty darn good football squad is going to finish dead last in a division of seven teams.

The Hogs were pretty good last year, but we were a different kind of pretty good the last 4 games of the season. But now, all seven teams in the SEC's Western division are starting the year thinking they are the team to beat. And why shouldn't they? Alabama has had the number one recruiting class the last five years running. Everyone from their redshirt seniors to their incoming true freshman have been part of a 247 number one nationally ranked recruiting class. That's unreal. Auburn is coming in with enough hype to fill up University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. Jeremy Johnson is already being given the mantle by many to be the best quarterback in the league. Mississippi State would argue that as Dak Prescott is certainly the best quarterback who has put in enough snaps to know he's actually legit. LSU is loaded with defensive talent, possibly the most talent in the conference on that side of the ball. They also have the typical blend of big, powerful wide receivers and bigger, more powerful running backs. Texas A&M is loaded with offensive talent. Their wide receiver corps is one of the most highly touted in the nation. Plus, they are Aggies. Even when they suck, they think they are world beaters. Ole Miss has been injected with a wave of extremely talented free agents recruits, and they return a defense that is loaded with huge names and playmakers at every level. Their defense had their own nickname last year, for goodness' sake! And then there is Arkansas who posted two shutouts in back to back games against ranked SEC foes. They return arguably college football's best offensive line and tight end personnel. With the quality of running backs, the Hogs may have the best running game in college football. The defense appears poised to be extremely stellar once again, and the Hogs are just a little nudge in the passing game away from being - gasp - a contender to win the whole daggum thing.

But someone is going to finish dead last in the SEC West.

I don't say all this to make an excuse for the Hogs should it be us. I don't believe it will be, and I'll detail that in a bit. I say that because someone has to finish last. There is no two ways about it. There may be a tie, but tiebreakers being what they are, someone will be at the bottom of the standings. And whoever it turns out to be, will be a darn good football team. It's a shame, and I kinda feel sorry in advance for whoever it is. I mean, not really. I can't stand A&M, Ole Miss, Bama, LSU or Auburn. I don't have a deep seeded hatred for Mississippi State, so I might feel a tinge of sorrow on their behalf if it is them. But rest assured, some fan base is going to be livid at the end of the season, and it won't necessarily be fair. Most, if not all, of the teams in the SEC West would finish in the top 3 or 4 in not just any other division, but conference in the country. And darn it if someone doesn't have to finish 7th here.

Them's the breaks.

I don't expect it to be the Hogs. Far from it. Let me tell you why.

With all due respect to Herbie, who I actually do respect, I think LSU is the team I feel is most likely to tank. This isn't a bash on Les Miles. It's just looking at what they are up against and what they will have to fight back. The division is going to be loaded with excellent defenses, LSU being one of them. Ole Miss, Bama, and now Arkansas have defenses that are in LSU's league. Until LSU gets better quarterback play, and there is no real indication that they will get it, they will struggle to get wins in this division. I'm not going to be shocked if they finish last.

Mississippi State is not far behind in my mind on who will end up in the cellar. That said, I find it hard to believe that a team with the best quarterback returning will finish last in the division. The Bulldogs lost a ton, but they were a team that held the top rating for a nice chunk of the regular season. It could be that they have some quality players ready to fill the void. There is a lot of confidence in Starkville. I'm just not sure how much talent there is left.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if A&M nosedives to last place either. They still don't have a lot of answers on defense, and by answers, I mean players in the back seven. The linebackers have been abysmal against both the run and the pass in recent years, and the Aggie secondary allows more big plays than Broadway on Saturday night. The Aggies will probably score some points, but even with Chavis, I see them struggling to stop teams in the division. If you aren't that good against the run or the pass, then you're in a world of hurt in this division.

As much as I would love to see it, I don't think Auburn can tank all the way to the bottom of the division. However, settling into the comfy middle would not shock. Like A&M, Auburn has gone to a well-known defensive guru to try and quick-fix the defense. I just don't see it. Their defensive line is absolutely depleted, and it wasn't great last year. They only recorded 10 sacks in conference play. In time, maybe Muschamp Magic can make Auburn a complete team. This year? I just see them getting bullied by teams that love to pound it. I think they'll score points, but I think they'll have their share of games where other teams just score more.

Alabama, middle of the pack you say? With all that talent? Meh, maybe I just hate Bama, but they have some questions that need to be answered. It wouldn't appear that the biggest one, quarterback, is giving people in Tuscaloosa the warm fuzzies. Nobody has taken the reigns. At best, it appears that guys are just "so-so" right now. Saban even hinted that he didn't want to name a starter because he was afraid that he would be outplayed and lose the spot. That isn't exactly instilling confidence in what you have. Add to that that the Crimson Tide are losing their top 3 pass catchers, their 4th all-time leading rusher, and a majority of their line, and you have a void of experience at the skill and line positions. Wowsers. Granted, they are replacing them with nothing but 4 and 5 star recruits, but that is a lot of newness. The defense will be strong again, but their secondary was average last year, and they are replacing both safeties.

Ole Miss is an interesting team. They are immensely talented on defense. Unlike LSU, I don't expect the Rebels to be anemic on offense. We like to make fun of High School Hugh a lot, but the upward trend in the win column is hard to ignore. Add to that that after three extremely good years of recruiting, this should be his most talented team in Oxford yet. Chad Kelley, the talented transfer from Clemson, was named the likely starter by Freeze for the opener. If he can provide a sliver of consistency to that position, the Rebels could be one of the toughest outs in the nation.

That leaves just the Arkansas Razorbacks. The question marks the Hogs have had were largely answered in camp. The offensive line has blistered through the spring and fall and should be even better in their run blocking. Kirkland's move to left tackle likely makes our pass protection even better. The tight ends are locked and loaded and are multi-purpose. Henry and Sprinkle can block, but both are matchup nightmares for defenses. Losing J-Will is a blow, but Kody Walker looked fantastic in the Red-White game, and RWIII looks prepared to add another set of legs to the mix. Collins will certainly be asked to burden a heavier load. Questions along the defensive line don't seem to worry the coaching staff much. They keep telling us we're deeper and more talented along the defensive front than we have been since the staff has been in Fayetteville. Just a reminder, our defensive line was pretty good just last year. If we're deeper and more talented than that, then all the talk about losing Philon and Flowers should be exhausted by the time we play Tennessee. The Hog secondary stands to be even better and deeper than last year. The question on defense really seems to be linebacker, particularly depth. Brooks Ellis has received nothing but high praise, however. For the Hogs to win the division, 5th year senior Brandon Allen needs to take that leap to making the throw in the tight window on 3rd down int he fourth quarter, not just throwing it away. Granted, that's a big if, but he's still more of a sure thing than Ole Miss's Kelley or whoever ends up under center for the Crimson Tide.

Right now, I come away believing that the two most complete teams in the West are Arkansas and Ole Miss. I don't think Ole Miss got 31 points better from last season. My rose-colored glasses have talked myself into just about believing we're going to win the dang division.

WPS

[HawgLife4Eva]

tl;dr

[presidenthog]

I didn't read but I gave you an up vote in anticipation of the mass smites you are sure to receive for posting what could be mistaken as robert Shields second post of the day.

[BenDial]

Who is Robert Shields?

[pigture perfect]

I think someone is very excited about football season being here.

[duckman]

Spot on Ben, keep this up and you may unseat Robert "Panty" Shields as Hogville resident scholar...


Just kidding, great read and I tend to agree.

[duckman]

If you didn't read that, you need to, very accurate.

[MissippHog]

+1
I don't agree with all of it, but I can see your point of view.

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

tl;dr

Too long?  Didn't read?

Then go back to bed with your blankie and binkie so the grown ups can talk football.

[HawgLife4Eva]

Too long?  Didn't read?

Then go back to bed with your blankie and binkie so the grown ups can talk football.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Longer than I thought it would be, but I read the whole thing. I believe I remember liking it... +1

[scruf]

We like to make fun of High School Hugh a lot, but the upward trend in the win column is hard to ignore.

7-6, 8-5, 9-4 is more of a minimal improvement then it is an upward trend. Is it upward? Yes. It is a trend? Yes. But calling it an upward trend feels almost like an apologist's take (not saying you're a HF apologist).

Just a reminder that he's 11-13 in the SEC. I no scare of High School Hugh.

[TXArcher]

Nice one Ben.

[HAWG MAFIA]

I like how you're thinkin

[Steef]

Enjoyed reading that. Hope you're right.

[Doug]

Definitely a long, but great read... typical Ben Dial stuff. Always on par.

That being said, here's my thoughts about the SEC West.

Alabama:
Saban's teams, regardless of the year have never had a losing season (2007 and the vacated wins not withstanding). With Lane Kiffin on board and tinkering around with the offense, I anticipate that this will continue to frustrate Saban to no end, while providing the rest of the SEC laughing fits this year. This might end up being the best 8-4 or 9-3 team in the nation. I have some serious concerns about offensive production. Defense will do what they're supposed to... until they meet their equal (Arkansas).

Arkansas
DL has the fewest question marks on it, obviously... as long as they can do their part in controlling clock play and play deep game protection well. Offensively, biggest concern I have here is passing plays. We know that the Hogs will ground and pound with the best of them this year. Time for our WRs to step up and time for our QB to nail 'em.

Auburn
Any time you have a major shift in defensive philosophies, especially within the SEC, you're looking at at least 2 years/recruiting classes to build it in. Auburn's teams are designed for quick scoring and high offensive production games. Surprisingly, Auburn averaged 35 points per game while holding opponents to 27 points last year. In most cases, that would be good for a 10+ win season... they just don't fare well in shootout scoring types games. Give 'em a couple years under Muschamp and they'll be good. This year, Auburn will be in the middle of the pack.

LSU
LSU lost one of its biggest names, defensively... Chavis is probably one of the top 4 DCs in the nation, so I expect that LSU will take a step back in that area. Les Miles is going to Les Miles himself, as he's prone to do every year. He'll win a couple games he has no business winning, he'll lose a couple that he shouldn't. No one ever expected LSU to get shut out by a team looking for its first conference win. LSU will battle Auburn and Texas A&M for the #3-4-5 spot.

Mississippi State
Taking absolutely nothing away from Dak Prescott. The man is a legit badass QB. The biggest issue for the Bulldogs is the fact that they lost so much on the OL this year that I see them struggling offensively several games this year.

Ole Miss
I honestly have no idea what to do with these guys... on paper, they're built to be one of the best teams in the nation... and have been since Freeze took over. The problem is that they've consistently failed to achieve those expectations. Look at last year's Peach Bowl vs TCU. I'm sorry, but the Rebels looked like a DII team going against TCU. They'll probably end up fighting for that #6-7 spot with Texas A&M

Texas A&M
Offensively, they need to settle down their QB situation. Defensively, it's going to take Chavis a couple years to get these guys moving in the right direction (see my comment about Muschamp). They'll be dangerous and contending for the SEC West sooner or later.

#1-2 spots: Alabama, Arkansas
#3-4-5 spots: Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
#6-7 spots: Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Finishing #7 in the SEC West this year is still gonna be better than finishing 3rd overall in most other conferences.

(Edit was to fix a redundant defensively defense comment)

[smb]

Don't be disappointed be uncommon!

[CokeHog]

I'll have what you're having.

Well played!

[Wild Boarnado]

Thanks BenDial and Thanks Doug for y'all's thoughful analysis of the SECW teams. I enjoyed the read. It should be a very exciting and interesting season. I am very optimistic about our chances this year.

WPS :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[DeltaBoy]

Good Read.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Here are my thoughts on the SEC West

Alabama
Kiffin sucks.  I will watch Kiffin's Krimson Korner several times. 

http://youtu.be/0TvJy2Ot48M
After weeks of offensive futility Saban finally has enough and paddles Kiffin on the sideline during their loss to Arkansas.

Auburn
Starts off rolling but a slew of off the field incidents depletes their team.  At wits end Gus consults Reverend Frosted Tips who recommends hiring a home remodeler to be the team's therapist/spiritual advisor.  This strategy backfires, Auburn tanks Gus resigns to start football program at Shiloh Online University.

LSU
Last year for Les.  He loses his grass eating mojo en route to another 7 or 8 win season. Kevin Steele is no John Chavis.  Sure some guys that are great coordinators are bad HC's but for the love of God Steele won 1 conference game in 4 years at Baylor, and has not coordinated a defense since 2012.

Ole Miss
Seriously how did this guy get a P5 job? 

Miss State
Nice inoffensive program and staff.  Mullen is just a bit off and I'm waiting for him to go full hunchback.  Dak is a great QB and kid but will not be as effective this year now that teams have gone up against him a couple times. 

Texas A&M

[younghog]

I didn't read but I gave you an up vote in anticipation of the mass smites you are sure to receive for posting what could be mistaken as robert Shields second post of the day.

That was FUNNY

go hogs

[Uncommon]

Mississippi State is coming away disappointed

[JRHoward]

Thank Goodness it is finally Game Week.  Thank You for the analysis!  Enjoyed it!  Woo Pig!  :razorback:

[SemperHawg]

Inside of all of this, I feel like the most interesting story line is the defensive coordinator hires at Aubbie and A&M.  Two proven defensive gurus, both in programs that can put talent into their system and still the big question remains.  Can anyone be defensively solid in a program that uses a pace of play offense?  For all of the success both of them (Chavis and Muschamp) have had, it has always been in a system that was designed to keep the defense off of the field and now they both find themselves coaching in a system that by design does just the opposite.

[hawginbigd1]

Longer than I thought it would be, but I read the whole thing. I believe I remember liking it... +1

Thats funny right there! +1

[bigdaddyhawg]

How old are you?

If you're older than 12, I feel very sad for you -- bro.

[hawginbigd1]

This could be our year, this is a 4 horse race IMO. LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Us, the differnce in 3 of these will depend on QB play, us, LSU, and Bama all have the pieces all around to be at the top, what will the QB's do is the question. Auburn I believe the question is how good will their young/thin defense be, I believe they will have the best QB play in the conference.

Not convinced Ole Miss has OL and QB to compete.

aTm does not have the talent on defense to compete.

MSU is woefully short on talent and experience everywhere except QB.

[Sir Oinksalot]

Enjoyed reading that. Hope you're right.

...agree

...as an aside the SEC special said MSU has ready their best offense ever....you know
that SEC special that didn't even mention Arkansas...

[Cinco de Hogo]

Thanks Ben, been reading your stuff for years on different MB's. Are you spending more time on Hogville now?  If so its a good thing.  Last I heard you were working with UU but he has moved.  What's up with you now?

[HawgLife4Eva]

How old are you?

If you're older than 12, I feel very sad for you -- bro.

Why so fixated on the age of 12?
Sorry, that's not acceptable.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Why so fixated on the age of 12?
Sorry, that's not acceptable.

Hahaha!  Yes, I'm sorry.  I should have specified "mental age of 12".

[ricepig]

I think several will be dishappointed......

[HawgLife4Eva]

Hahaha!  Yes, I'm sorry.  I should have specified "mental age of 12".

Mentally I am like 5, according to my girlfriend.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Mentally I am like 5, according to my girlfriend.

Well, at least she's hanging in there with you.  That's gotta feel good!!

Unless she's trying to "fix" you, in which case, I'm very sorry.

[BenDial]

I knew it was long when I posted. I knew some wouldn't read it because of it. I'm cool with that. It's not mandatory reading or anything.

[Biggus Piggus]

I think I already predicted a five-way tie for first in the West, among my other completely different predictions.

[Hey Super]

I didn't read but I gave you an up vote in anticipation of the mass smites you are sure to receive for posting what could be mistaken as robert Shields second post of the day.

This is one of my new favorite Hogville posts

[Birminghog]

Ben, are you Bubba's son Ben? If so, your dad was the greatest. I have never known a nicer, more welcoming human being.

[Biggus Piggus]

Hey BenDial, thanks for the analysis. I am not convinced that Alabama's quarterback situation is that different than Arkansas's. They have a pretty complete team other than QB, which looks a lot like the Razorbacks.

Texas A&M and Auburn seem very similar. Both hoping that a change of coordinator does wonders for defenses that have been poor. Both probably will look great in some matchups and bad in others. Both should be powerful on offense.

Ole Miss won't be as complete on offense. While the Rebs' front seven on defense is excellent, the secondary is a work in progress.

LSU looks more questionable than Ole Miss on both sides of the football. Good running back and No. 1 receiver though, better than the Rebels have. Probably not nearly as good on defense.

Mississippi State is a notch less than it was in 2014. That might be pretty competitive though.

East opponents - LSU has South Carolina and Florida. MSU plays Kentucky and Missouri. But Ole Miss has the best - Vanderbilt and Florida. Even after losing its SEC opener at Alabama, Ole Miss could be in the race late.

[Biggus Piggus]

This is a weird season in that the most talented quarterbacks do not play for the most complete teams, and the most complete teams are hoping to make do at quarterback.

[Calling All Hogs]

This will be another year where most SEC West teams make a bowl and even the bottom teams will likely dominate their opponents.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I think I already predicted a five-way tie for first in the West, among my other completely different predictions.

This may be tongue in cheek, but I am predicting a three-way tie for first in the West between Alabama, Auburn, and Arkansas, each with two conference losses.

This may be the first time in a while where the SECC doesn't make the playoffs.

I just think there's a lot of balance this year, and no really great teams.

[KevinOMReb]

TAM still doesn't have a defense and will be up and down.
MSU lost more than they think and haven't recruited well.  I have them last.
LSU still has big QB issues.  I agree with you, they're overrated, which is unbelievable with their recruiting.  Les is Less.
ARK still must learn to win on the road.
ALA has QB issues too, but are deep.  But lose to Wisc and it could change their demeanor.
OM has to stay healthy on the OL or see Nov/Dec 2014.  But if we do...

In a nutshell, MSU, LSU and TAM at the bottom.  The rest, good gosh, who knows!  What a year it will be. 

[KevinOMReb]

Hey BenDial, thanks for the analysis. I am not convinced that Alabama's quarterback situation is that different than Arkansas's. They have a pretty complete team other than QB, which looks a lot like the Razorbacks.

Texas A&M and Auburn seem very similar. Both hoping that a change of coordinator does wonders for defenses that have been poor. Both probably will look great in some matchups and bad in others. Both should be powerful on offense.

Ole Miss won't be as complete on offense. While the Rebs' front seven on defense is excellent, the secondary is a work in progress.

LSU looks more questionable than Ole Miss on both sides of the football. Good running back and No. 1 receiver though, better than the Rebels have. Probably not nearly as good on defense.

Mississippi State is a notch less than it was in 2014. That might be pretty competitive though.

East opponents - LSU has South Carolina and Florida. MSU plays Kentucky and Missouri. But Ole Miss has the best - Vanderbilt and Florida. Even after losing its SEC opener at Alabama, Ole Miss could be in the race late.

Our secondary will be one of our strengths.  We have weaknesses, but that ain't one of them.

[KevinOMReb]

Definitely a long, but great read... typical Ben Dial stuff. Always on par.

That being said, here's my thoughts about the SEC West.

Alabama:
Saban's teams, regardless of the year have never had a losing season (2007 and the vacated wins not withstanding). With Lane Kiffin on board and tinkering around with the offense, I anticipate that this will continue to frustrate Saban to no end, while providing the rest of the SEC laughing fits this year. This might end up being the best 8-4 or 9-3 team in the nation. I have some serious concerns about offensive production. Defense will do what they're supposed to... until they meet their equal (Arkansas).

Arkansas
DL has the fewest question marks on it, obviously... as long as they can do their part in controlling clock play and play deep game protection well. Offensively, biggest concern I have here is passing plays. We know that the Hogs will ground and pound with the best of them this year. Time for our WRs to step up and time for our QB to nail 'em.

Auburn
Any time you have a major shift in defensive philosophies, especially within the SEC, you're looking at at least 2 years/recruiting classes to build it in. Auburn's teams are designed for quick scoring and high offensive production games. Surprisingly, Auburn averaged 35 points per game while holding opponents to 27 points last year. In most cases, that would be good for a 10+ win season... they just don't fare well in shootout scoring types games. Give 'em a couple years under Muschamp and they'll be good. This year, Auburn will be in the middle of the pack.

LSU
LSU lost one of its biggest names, defensively... Chavis is probably one of the top 4 DCs in the nation, so I expect that LSU will take a step back in that area. Les Miles is going to Les Miles himself, as he's prone to do every year. He'll win a couple games he has no business winning, he'll lose a couple that he shouldn't. No one ever expected LSU to get shut out by a team looking for its first conference win. LSU will battle Auburn and Texas A&M for the #3-4-5 spot.

Mississippi State
Taking absolutely nothing away from Dak Prescott. The man is a legit badass QB. The biggest issue for the Bulldogs is the fact that they lost so much on the OL this year that I see them struggling offensively several games this year.

Ole Miss
I honestly have no idea what to do with these guys... on paper, they're built to be one of the best teams in the nation... and have been since Freeze took over. The problem is that they've consistently failed to achieve those expectations. Look at last year's Peach Bowl vs TCU. I'm sorry, but the Rebels looked like a DII team going against TCU. They'll probably end up fighting for that #6-7 spot with Texas A&M

Texas A&M
Offensively, they need to settle down their QB situation. Defensively, it's going to take Chavis a couple years to get these guys moving in the right direction (see my comment about Muschamp). They'll be dangerous and contending for the SEC West sooner or later.

#1-2 spots: Alabama, Arkansas
#3-4-5 spots: Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
#6-7 spots: Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Finishing #7 in the SEC West this year is still gonna be better than finishing 3rd overall in most other conferences.

(Edit was to fix a redundant defensively defense comment)

Imagine Arkansas without Skipper, Collins and Williams for the bowl game.  That's where we were.  We will not finish at the bottom 2.

[bigdaddyhawg]

Imagine Arkansas without Skipper, Collins and Williams for the bowl game.  That's where we were.  We will not finish at the bottom 2.

While that is so very sad, I promise you we would not even in that scenario gotten our doors blown off like you guys did.

To begin with we'd actually show up and play like something other than a bunch of quitters.

Difficult circumstances reveals character, and the character of your fb team was demonstrated that day.

[Paul]

In December at least one SEC West program will be po'ed they paid their head coach 4 million USD

[SemperHawg]

Imagine Arkansas without Skipper, Collins and Williams for the bowl game.  That's where we were.  We will not finish at the bottom 2.

With all due respect, I don't think OM has a Williams or a Collins on their team.

[LRHawg]

Imagine Arkansas without Skipper, Collins and Williams for the bowl game.  That's where we were.  We will not finish at the bottom 2.

All teams have injuries. Depth is a component as much as any to consider when ranking teams. While unfortunate, you guys lost Treadway and that was that pretty much. We are already down Williams for the season but have quality backups.