HDN Arkansas Expectation Theory

[87017]

With the current head coaching turmoil surrounding our program, I finally decided to flesh out a Houston Nutt theory that I have been drunkenly considering for the past couple of years.

The theory is this; The 10 year Houston Nutt era of Arkansas football represents the baseline of what we should expect from Arkansas in the SEC.

Basically, we should start judging our head coaches based on what Nutt did here. Head coaching expectations need to be established, especially within our fan base, to help us temper or justify results in the future. We're not Alabama, but sure as hell not Vandy either. Not to say with the right coach, we can't perennially win 10 games (or with the wrong coach lose 10), just what we should expect from a middle of the road coach.

First, let's talk about what happened in HDN's 10-year period as HC. It's easy to go into the rabbit hole of what-ifs, players not reaching potential, or the memorable FOI fiasco, but just examine on-field results. In a pretty large sample size, Nutt proved that Arkansas should consistently have a winning record, compete within the SEC, and make a bowl game.

Here's his 10-year W/L record. (1998-2007)

1998 9-3 (6-2)
1999 8-4 (4-4)
2000 6-6 (3-5)
2001 7-5 (4-4)
2002 9-5 (5-3)
2003 9-4 (4-4)
2004 5-6 (3-5)
2005 4-7 (2-6)
2006 10-4 (7-1)
2007 8-4 (4-4)

Averages:
Conference W/L: 4.2 - 3.8
Overall W/L: 7.5 - 4.8

Averages never tell the whole story though. There were bad losses and big wins, but the average is something we all probably could have guessed. I believe the most revealing thing Nutt showed us though, were the highs and lows of the program. 

2000-01, and 2004-05 were rebuilding/low periods. Something a program like Arkansas needs to expect and the fans need to be okay with. Especially when Nutt backed each of the rebuilding periods with above average periods. A western conference title in 02' and 06'.

1998-99, 2002-03, and 2006 were the high periods. 2002 and 2003 were honestly probably Nutt's most underperforming teams as far as talent goes. But in 1998 and 2006 there was a real chance for Arkansas to compete for a National Title if a few things go our way.

In a 10-year period, going to 8 bowl games, averaging 7/8 wins a season, and in two of those seasons having a legitimate chance to win a title while also being okay with a rebuild or two along the way is who Arkansas is as a program. What Houston did here was exactly that and I think is what we should expect from anyone who leads this program.

[wildturkey8]

No.

[Hoggie17]

In hind sight that record looks damm good. No he was no BP but much better than CBB.

[jkstock04]

Tough to disagree with much of that...especially when you lay the numbers out. Some would argue Nutt was a lame duck coach and "imagine how much better we would be with a good or great coach." I for sure said that at the time.

Petrino proved it could get better in a shorter time period but we will never know for sure what he would've done with 10 years because he was only here 4.

To the OP, ya I would gladly take those numbers in a 10 year period as we sit here today. Under Bielema doesn't look like we will come close.

[wildturkey8]

Tough to disagree with much of that...especially when you lay the numbers out. Some would argue Nutt was a lame duck coach and "imagine how much better we would be with a good or great coach." I for sure said that at the time.

Petrino proved it could get better in a shorter time period but we will never know for sure what he would've done with 10 years because he was only here 4.

To the OP, ya I would gladly take those numbers in a 10 year period as we sit here today. Under Bielema doesn't look like we will come close.

Y'all are right.

[batmanfan]

If we could get someone doing better than Nutt but not quite as good as Bobby I think most would be happy.

[hawgon]

I look at it this way.  Danny Ford got to the championship game.  Hootie had four seasons out of ten of at least nine wins.  Petrino won eight or more three years out of four.  So, it really isn't that hard to have pretty good success at Arkansas.  Bert is drastically underachieving.

[Hoggie17]

I look at it this way.  Danny Ford got to the championship game.  Hootie had four seasons out of ten of at least nine wins.  Petrino won eight or more three years out of four.  So, it really isn't that hard to have pretty good success at Arkansas.  Bert is drastically underachieving.

Danny Ford recruited the first team HDN had. CBB is only better that Crowe of all our full time coaches going back to Broyles.

[jkstock04]

I look at it this way.  Danny Ford got to the championship game.  Hootie had four seasons out of ten of at least nine wins.  Petrino won eight or more three years out of four.  So, it really isn't that hard to have pretty good success at Arkansas.  Bert is drastically underachieving.

One thing that will be argued is it was a different dynamic with the league back then, so you can't compare that to now. Essentially an easier SEC. People even argue that with the Petrino years.

Problem I have with that is that's what people say every season...I've heard it since the Nutt days. "This" is the hardest the SEC has ever been. Truth is it's probably been hard every year for every coach. It's interesting how when Arkansas does have a good year in the conference it's "because the conference was weak then." Well....it also sort of makes common sense if we are winning more conference games the other teams aren't going to be "as good" because we are beating them contributing to their losses.

[DeltaBoy]

In hind sight that record looks damm good. No he was no BP but much better than CBB.

Dang that looks pretty good compared to the past 5 years.

[Wildhog]

I'll help you out a little bit and point out that several of those years were with an 11 game schedule.

I totaled up his regular season record and it was 74-40, for a 65% winning percentage.

A 65% winning percentage now is 7.8 wins/regular season.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Any chance we can get Nutt back?

[wildturkey8]

I'll help you out a little bit and point out that several of those years were with an 11 game schedule.

I totaled up his regular season record and it was 74-40, for a 65% winning percentage.

A 65% winning percentage now is 7.8 wins/regular season.

Bielema won 68% of his games in the Big 10 which was decidedly not as strong as the SEC.

[Wildhog]

To contrast that, Bielema is averaging 5.75 wins/regular season at Arkansas, or 48%.

[Wildhog]

Bielema won 68% of his games in the Big 10 which was decidedly not as strong as the SEC.

Yep, he won a lot of games at Wisconsin.

[wildturkey8]

My point is there is a minute difference and Bielema was in the easier league.

[Wildhog]

My point is there is a minute difference and Bielema was in the easier league.

Right?

[Hogwild]

Houston Nutt final two seasons before he was run off, his teams won 11 of 16 SEC games. Ten years later we have a coach who in 4 seasons has a won just 10 of 32 games SEC games.

It is amazing what ten long years, pun intended, can do the the expectations of our program.

[hogsanity]

One thing that will be argued is it was a different dynamic with the league back then, so you can't compare that to now. Essentially an easier SEC. People even argue that with the Petrino years.

Problem I have with that is that's what people say every season...I've heard it since the Nutt days. "This" is the hardest the SEC has ever been. Truth is it's probably been hard every year for every coach. It's interesting how when Arkansas does have a good year in the conference it's "because the conference was weak then." Well....it also sort of makes common sense if we are winning more conference games the other teams aren't going to be "as good" because we are beating them contributing to their losses.

The SEC is tough, period. When HDn was here the SECE was better, but the Hogs had to play TN, then one of the top SECE teams every year so yea, it is just a tough league.

[hogsanity]

Houston Nutt final two seasons before he was run off, his teams won 11 of 16 SEC games. Ten years later we have a coach who in 4 seasons has a won just 10 of 32 games SEC games.

It is amazing what ten long years, pun intended, can do the the expectations of our program.

What is funny is the fans wanted both HDn and HAtfield gone, yet both won a ton of games.

[Hoggie17]

Houston I was a little rough with you at times, I am sorry. I wish I could hear some of you corny talk like, 'I called that play"   

[wildturkey8]

Houston I was a little rough with you at times, I am sorry. I wish I could hear some of you corny talk like, 'I called that play"   

Bert needs to hand out baseball bats and bring da wood to the Aggies.

[WilsonHog]

HDN was a better fit for the Arkansas job than Bret has proven to be.

[hawgon]

Yep, he won a lot of games at Wisconsin.

So has everyone else at Whisky.  Look at what Gary Anderson did there and what he is now doing at OSU.  Look at what Paul Chryst did at Pitt and what he is now doing as Wisconsin.  It is clearly the program and not the coach.

[Wildhog]

So has everyone else at Whisky.  Look at what Gary Anderson did there and what he is now doing at OSU.  Look at what Paul Chryst did at Pitt and what he is now doing as Wisconsin.  It is clearly the program and not the coach.

I've made that point over and over on here. 

[hawgon]

I've made that point over and over on here.

And it is pretty clear from the records that to the extent coaches do matter at Whisky, that Bielema has been the worst of the lot of the ones since Alvarez.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

HDN was a better fit for the Arkansas job than Bret has proven to be.

As hard as that is to stomach. It just is.

[Hoggie17]

HDN is only 60. I have thought for the last 2 years he would be a great AD.He bleeds   Razorback Red, He wants a winner and he is able to hype things. Remember how he movitated our players. Now I am ducking for cover.

[factchecker]

HDN is only 60. I have thought for the last 2 years he would be a great AD.He bleeds   Razorback Red, He wants a winner and he is able to hype things. Remember how he movitated our players. Now I am ducking for cover.

Nutt bleeds Cowboy Orange.  He is not a Razorback.

[Hoggie17]

Nutt bleeds Cowboy Orange.  He is not a Razorback.

He may have turned Cowboy Orange but when my wife worked at the Arkansas school for the deaf he and his dad were Razorback Red.

[hogsanity]

Nutt bleeds Cowboy Orange.  He is not a Razorback.

Like all coaches, most people in general really, HDN bleeds green, CASH $$$$$ green.

[idochog]

HDN wins were against a much weaker SEC west.

HDN may have pulled a few upsets but he would frequently lose games in the SEC that were very winnable. 

Im no Fan of Nutt and I don't see any way Nutt could help this program.  He had his time and it done and over: GOOD RIDDANCE.

[Hoggie17]

HDN wins were against a much weaker SEC west.

HDN may have pulled a few upsets but he would frequently lose games in the SEC that were very winnable. 

Im no Fan of Nutt and I don't see any way Nutt could help this program.  He had his time and it done and over: GOOD RIDDANCE.

I am pretty sure that is the feelings of most Hog fans.

[bphi11ips]

What is funny is the fans wanted both HDn and HAtfield gone, yet both won a ton of games.

Not that many fans wanted Hatfield gone.  His skin was too thin to hear a few boos.  And those who wanted him gone weren't unhappy with his record.  They didn't like what they perceived to be his offense.

A large majority of fans wanted Nutt gone, and it had nothing to do with his record, which was no where nearly as good as Hatfield's.

You know this, so stop making stuff up.

[NaturalStateReb]

HDN was a better fit for the Arkansas job than Bret has proven to be.

True.  Whatever else might be said about Nutt, he was definitely passionate about coaching at Arkansas.

Still, the situation in the league that Nutt faced is considerably different than the situation that Bielema faces. 

[bphi11ips]

Nutt bleeds Cowboy Orange.  He is not a Razorback.

This is utter BS.  I don't like him but I sold Cokes with the guy at WMS.  He is as big of a Razorbacks fan in his heart as you are.

[hawgon]

Well, with the exception of Alabama and possibly LSU, the league is as ripe for the picking this year as it has been since the 90s. 

[Hoggie17]

This is utter BS.  I don't like him but I sold Cokes with the guy at WMS.  He is as big of a Razorbacks fan in his heart as you are.

My wife worked with his dad, the whole family loved the hogs.

[Calling All Hogs]

I am old enough to remember 2007 when 8 wins was not considered an amazingly good season.

[factchecker]

This is utter BS.  I don't like him but I sold Cokes with the guy at WMS.  He is as big of a Razorbacks fan in his heart as you are.

So much so that he quit the team to play for Oklahoma State.  He's such a big fan that he embarrassed The University of Arkansas and the Razorbacks with the Mustain situation, Code Red, Mr. Interception King emails, and the golden handcuffs.

Great fan.

[NaturalStateReb]

Well, with the exception of Alabama and possibly LSU, the league is as ripe for the picking this year as it has been since the 90s. 

This is tantamount to saying, "anyone could finish third."

[hogsanity]

Not that many fans wanted Hatfield gone.  His skin was too thin to hear a few boos.  And those who wanted him gone weren't unhappy with his record.  They didn't like what they perceived to be his offense.

A large majority of fans wanted Nutt gone, and it had nothing to do with his record, which was no where nearly as good as Hatfield's.

You know this, so stop making stuff up.

That ANY fans wanted him gone just shows Clay Travis, even though maybe not even born yet, ranked our fans too low on the stupid meter. 48 wins over 5 seasons, when seasons were only 11 games long unless you played at Hawaii, which the Hogs did once, and poor little fans didn't like his offense. We needs to see that thar piggy skin in the airways otherwisins weuns just bored. Dumb, simply dumb.

[longtimeHogfan]

Bret is a likeable average coach.

Hootie was an unlikeable average coach. 

The rub on Ken H was it took  him two hours to get to the stadium because he refused to pass.  Nice guy, likeable, good record, didn't enjoy having to play the political part of the job. 

[Hoggie17]

That ANY fans wanted him gone just shows Clay Travis, even though maybe not even born yet, ranked our fans too low on the stupid meter. 48 wins over 5 seasons, when seasons were only 11 games long unless you played at Hawaii, which the Hogs did once, and poor little fans didn't like his offense. We needs to see that thar piggy skin in the airways otherwisins weuns just bored. Dumb, simply dumb.

Karma, Now we have Long and Bielema.

[lakecityhog]

Take out the 5-6 and the 4-7 years and change them to just 6-6 and 7-5 and I am on board completely.
I believe that a losing record season should be an anomaly, key injuries or something like that. Win 3 of 4 OOC games and 3 SEC games and you have a 6-6 season and we should do that every year.

As far as the SEC being weaker-- 98 NC Tenner      03 NC LSU      06 NC Fla    08 NC Fla
So things were pretty salty back then too.

I agree 100% Nutt's 10 year tenure should be our baseline expectation for our team.

[Hoggie17]

The SEC won a NC Nutts first year.  We were the best football conference in the country. It seemed easier because Nutt was better coach  than what we have now.

[lakecityhog]

By the way, KUDOS to 87017!!!
This surely puts some things in perspective for most fans.

If Nutt was an average or a terrible coach shouldn't we at least expect his level of coaching from our current and future coaches?

And PLEASE don't come on here and say "yea, but HDN rode the coattails of 2 or 3 great players for his success"!!! EVERY coach rises and falls with the players on his team, Saban, Meyer, Nutt, Petrino and BB. Find em, recruit em and coach em up!!!

[Tejano Jawg]

Interesting to think about—this thread. Nutt's time at Arkansas sure had its twists and turns.

Starting with the team he inherited when he come to town. The best one a coach could ever want to be handed, next to Holtz' first team. Then the undefeated run that stopped on a freak play. Was the moment before that the high-water mark?

Then the decline. Then Matt Jones (with Cedric Cobbs for part of that time). The win in Austin, one of the best ever. A win in Alabama. Followed by the famous O for October. A bowl win. Then another decline. During this time, the losses were mostly of the heartbreaker variety. Wasn't thinking about our "head coach" necessarily.

The "cloud" and the 2 year pass for the 2 losing seasons. Then came Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Their sophomore year hope was as high as ever. The first year—since being a student—I bought season tickets. But in this time period the madness started. Ego vs Mitch Mustain, Gus and Reggie. Soon Nutt's time was done.

Yes, the highs and lows were so extreme. I remember the shock and disbelief after losing to Kentucky AT HOME in 2007. And then to Auburn, back when we had no business losing to them. And I remember every detail in the room—with my sons and my next-door neighbor who happened to come by—when we upset No. 1 LSU. The biggest contrast to me from then to now—back then, things weren't boring, now they kinda are.

[bphi11ips]

That ANY fans wanted him gone just shows Clay Travis, even though maybe not even born yet, ranked our fans too low on the stupid meter. 48 wins over 5 seasons, when seasons were only 11 games long unless you played at Hawaii, which the Hogs did once, and poor little fans didn't like his offense. We needs to see that thar piggy skin in the airways otherwisins weuns just bored. Dumb, simply dumb.

Like I said, not many fans wanted him gone. He got upset when he heard boos at the Texas game in LR when we lost at the last second. He left on his own because he heard grumbling about his offense, but mostly because Frank Broyles wanted him to make changes he wasn't willing to make. Imagine what he would do in today's world where fans post all manner of negative BS in social media.

Razorbacks fans didn't want Hatfield gone. Nutt is another story.

[Tusks]

Like I said, not many fans wanted him gone. He got upset when he heard boos at the Texas game in LR when we lost at the last second. He left on his own because he heard grumbling about his offense, but mostly because Frank Broyles wanted him to make changes he wasn't willing to make. Imagine what he would do in today's world where fans post all manner of negative BS in social media.

Razorbacks fans didn't want Hatfield gone. Nutt is another story.

The treatment KH got at Clemson was much more what everyday fans at most all programs are like.  They really didn't like his offense.