Yes, Virginia, the Tarheels can be beaten

[verticalhog]

Us old *arts will remember the Hogs' first victory over the Heels back on February 12, 1984 with players such as Alvin Robertson, Joe Klein, and, of course, Charles Balentine who made the winning shot against the # 1 and undefeated Heels (21-0) with their superstar, Michael Jordan in glorious Pine Bluff!  Enjoy reminiscing or seeing it for the first time!  Yes, the Hogs CAN beat the 2017 version of the Heels!

Go Hogs, beat North Carolina!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbbvQkdHSI

[ShadowHawg]

Nolan had a 2-1 record against North Carolina. All games were in the tournament.

The only time they beat us was on a shot in the final seconds in the sweet 16 in 93. Carolina won it all that year.

We beat Stackhouse and 'Sheed at the final 4 in 95.

[joeyself]

https://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

I played around with our lineup a bit--more Barford, Thompson and Macon, less Beard, Hazen, Briley and Cook than the default gave.  Didn't mess with NC at all. 

93-76 NC.

JcS

[Timfromlittlerockhog]

IMO the way to beat UNC is to do away with this get to their legs philosophy. At least for this game. UNC is too deep for that to work here. Plus trying to run out after every play will get us killed on the boards. If Mike thinks we can get to their legs and win it late then maybe we can. But IMO we need to block out with every body we have and get to the boards in a half court game.

IF and thats a big IF,we can limit UNC to one shot per poss and shoot lights out from the three point line and IF Moses plays like he did game one we could pull this one off.

The positive about playing UNC in the second game is that we are NOT supposed to win, so loose and its expected, win and you are suddenly hero's. Its a no loose scenario for us as a program.

[ATLHog]

Yes they can be beaten but it will take a near-perfect game by Hogs + unbiased refs + a lot of luck thrown in for good measure.
Tarheels are deep, talented, and well coached. As much as I hold out hope I gotta think our chances are pretty slim-

[Sho Nuff]

This one has Arkansas by 10

https://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/boxscore.asp?GameID=10161845&nomenu=1

[Hogz87]

https://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

I played around with our lineup a bit--more Barford, Thompson and Macon, less Beard, Hazen, Briley and Cook than the default gave.  Didn't mess with NC at all. 

93-76 NC.

JcS

So I saw this and had to mess with it some myself.  Couldn't resist.

I did the same thing as you.  I cut Cook's minutes down to virtually nothing, gave our better players (Barford, Kingsley, Hannahs, Macon) all about 30 minutes or more, Watkins and Thomas around 20 minutes, cut Beard's minutes way down, and I set UNC's lineup the best I could based on their actual MPG stats on ESPN.

I simmed it 20 times.

UNC 81 - 76 Arkansas
UNC 86 - 76 Arkansas
UNC 79 - 62 Arkansas
UNC 83 - 86 Arkansas
UNC 80 - 71 Arkansas
UNC 76 - 80 Arkansas
UNC 94 - 80 Arkansas
UNC 91 - 84 Arkansas
UNC 82 - 65 Arkansas
UNC 80 - 62 Arkansas

UNC 89 - 77 Arkansas
UNC 84 - 70 Arkansas
UNC 90 - 69 Arkansas
UNC 96 - 80 Arkansas
UNC 81 - 65 Arkansas
UNC 84 - 74 Arkansas
UNC 79 - 68 Arkansas
UNC 84 - 86 Arkansas
UNC 84 - 78 Arkansas
UNC 89 - 75 Arkansas

UNC: 17 Wins
Arkansas: 3 Wins

Average Score:  UNC 84.6 - 74.2 Arkansas

[jmark]

if nc scores 84 points we will not score 74 points, more like 64 points. the hogs have to keep nc in the 70's to win.

[joeyself]

15% chance?  Ok, if I was told there was a 15% chance my plane would crash, I'd remain on the ground, so that's significant.

I thought about increasing the minutes of the starters even more, but I didn't know what to do on the Carolina side.  I thought the default was the season's MPG, but I didn't look at it closely.

JcS

[Atlhogfan1]

Nolan had a 2-1 record against North Carolina. All games were in the tournament.

The only time they beat us was on a shot in the final seconds in the sweet 16 in 93. Carolina won it all that year.

We beat Stackhouse and 'Sheed at the final 4 in 95.

In 93 they got us on a back cut out of a timeout to go up 3 and then Shep turned it over.  Loved that 93 team.  They were close to a F4 team. 

[Hogz87]

15% chance?  Ok, if I was told there was a 15% chance my plane would crash, I'd remain on the ground, so that's significant.

I thought about increasing the minutes of the starters even more, but I didn't know what to do on the Carolina side.  I thought the default was the season's MPG, but I didn't look at it closely.

JcS

Their default UNC rotation was pretty close other than Theo Pinson.  WIF has him at 19 minutes but he's been a 25-30 minute player since Kenny Williams got injured for the season.  They also have some of UNC's walk-ons getting one minute but those guys only play if UNC is up by 25+ and there's a minute left in the game.

[Ugly Uncle]

Well, all the commentators before NC's game yesterday said that they had one player that they rely on for their team to go.  Stop him and we stop the Tar heels.  So...there is a chance.

[Hogz87]

Ok, now I'm hooked.  I use to waste hours at a time playing with the WIF sim engine.  Hadn't done it in years.  I ran it 30 more times to get to 50 (plus the 20 from earlier).   WIF always runs their sims around 1,000 times for each matchup; that taught me that a larger sample size using their sim machine equals better results.  You might log on and run a sim between two teams and the team you wouldn't expect to win might win the one time you sim the matchup; but if I log on 10 minutes later and run the exact same matchup 10, 20, 30, 100 times, then the team you would expect to win the matchup will probably win 80%+ of the time.

I simmed the matchup 30 more times + the 20 sims from earlier, for an even 50.

UNC:  43 Wins
Arkansas:  7 wins

Average Score:  UNC 84.4 - 73.4 Arkansas

[NoogaHog]

Us old *arts will remember the Hogs' first victory over the Heels back on February 12, 1984 with players such as Alvin Robertson, Joe Klein, and, of course, Charles Balentine who made the winning shot against the # 1 and undefeated Heels (21-0) with their superstar, Michael Jordan in glorious Pine Bluff!  Enjoy reminiscing or seeing it for the first time!  Yes, the Hogs CAN beat the 2017 version of the Heels!

Go Hogs, beat North Carolina!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbbvQkdHSI

Growing up in Pine Bluff, that game was legendary. There may have only been about 10K people there, but there were about 100K that would say they were there. I wasn't able to go, but the next week my dad had us all commemorative t-shirts with the score on them.

[Ugly Uncle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJzj9pKmyIo

[PonderinHog]

In 93 they got us on a back cut out of a timeout to go up 3 and then Shep turned it over.  Loved that 93 team.  They were close to a F4 team.

We played Carolina better than anybody in the tourney.  The stage was set for '94 in that game.

[joeyself]

Ok, now I'm hooked.  I used to waste hours and hours playing with the WIF sim engine.  Hadn't done it in years.  I'll be done after this round, but I'm running it 50 times again.  When Is tarted setting up my own tournaments and eerything a few years ago when I did this and recorded all the data, I learned the more times you simmed a matchup the better.  I got that idea from WIF themselves because every time they simmed their own tournaments, they'd sim each matchup hundreds or thousands of times. I don't have time for that so I try to do matchups either 50 or 100 times. 

I simmed the matchup 30 more times + the 20 sims from earlier, for an even 50.

UNC:  43 Wins
Arkansas:  7 wins

Average Score:  UNC 84.4 - 73.4 Arkansas

That is 14%--1 out of 7 chance of a win. 

I'd like better odds, but drawing to an inside straight is about 9%, I think.

And I've seen that happen.

JcS

[Inhogswetrust]

Us old *arts will remember the Hogs' first victory over the Heels back on February 12, 1984 with players such as Alvin Robertson, Joe Klein, and, of course, Charles Balentine who made the winning shot against the # 1 and undefeated Heels (21-0) with their superstar, Michael Jordan in glorious Pine Bluff!  Enjoy reminiscing or seeing it for the first time!  Yes, the Hogs CAN beat the 2017 version of the Heels!

Go Hogs, beat North Carolina!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbbvQkdHSI

Besides winning and having friends on the team two things stick out in my mind about that game.
1) there were quite a few future NBA players on those teams
2) Steven Hale that took NC's last shot was highly recruited by Arkansas out of Oklahoma.

[JenksHawg]

interesting simulations - I've been thinking it over "what we could/should do different to have best chance of winning" and nothing is really sticking out.  My gut tells me it comes down to Barford and Macon scoring 25+ each in order for us to have a chance.  I see Hannahs struggling like in the Kentucky game, where his floaters won't work against UNC's length inside and he struggles to get open 3's.  I see Watkins being the X factor - if he could score 12 or so and play solid defense on Jackson and stay out of foul trouble that would be big. 

I also like the slow it down concept - we won't run them down.  Keep it in the low 70's, and hope we can shoot 45% overall and 40% from 3 and we have a chance. 

[WorfHog]

All I can say is that Michael Jordan ain't walking on the court tomorrow. Hogs have as good a shot as we've had in a couple years. We need to be firing on all cylinders all game. 

[PonderinHog]

I agree with slowing them down on defense with some zone, but we will have to play our game on offense, move without the ball, and not be hesitant from three point range, which has been a problem lately.  If we create some turnovers, we have to go and go hard to the hole.

Or we can go home.

[Hollywood870]

Us old *arts will remember the Hogs' first victory over the Heels back on February 12, 1984 with players such as Alvin Robertson, Joe Klein, and, of course, Charles Balentine who made the winning shot against the # 1 and undefeated Heels (21-0) with their superstar, Michael Jordan in glorious Pine Bluff!  Enjoy reminiscing or seeing it for the first time!  Yes, the Hogs CAN beat the 2017 version of the Heels!

Go Hogs, beat North Carolina!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbbvQkdHSI

Awesome

[Hollywood870]

Nolan had a 2-1 record against North Carolina. All games were in the tournament.

The only time they beat us was on a shot in the final seconds in the sweet 16 in 93. Carolina won it all that year.

We beat Stackhouse and 'Sheed at the final 4 in 95.

Corliss took Rasheed Wallace to school in the paint that day.