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Author Topic: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?  (Read 1195 times)

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MaconBacon

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I'm hoping for a 2014 payback

Call me a hater and a conference deserter, but all would be well in my world to see this happen.  Looking at what little I know about Wich. this year, a few numbers may reveal they're capable of it.

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FineAsSwine

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2017, 10:24:52 am »

Slim and none. Would be a huge upset. KY too long and athletic for them.
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Hogginintheville

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2017, 10:25:52 am »

I think Dayton will beat Wichita St. in the first round. They are a good senior laden team.
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TushCrush

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2017, 10:39:23 am »

It could happen.  It appears that Wichita State finished the 2017 season within the top ten in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings.
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wildturkey8

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2017, 10:41:04 am »

Greg Marshall can outcoach Calipari any day of the week. 
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MountieDawg

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2017, 10:50:18 am »

Greg Marshall can outcoach Calipari any day of the week. 

He seemed to not be able to the season he was undefeated and played an 8 loss UK team, but maybe that game was played on a day that is not in a week?  Is that possible????
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lstewart

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2017, 10:51:21 am »

I picked Witch State to be Kentucky on my bracket....  Might not really be a better team, but the pressure will be on Kentucky with Witch State being such a low seed for their talent.
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Hawg Red

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2017, 10:56:35 am »

I think there is a fair chance. Wichita State is a good team. But I also think there is a fair chance they lose to Dayton, also a good team. There is a lot of talk that Wichita is the most underseeded team of all-time, but who have they beaten? We've heard everyone, ourselves included, ask that about Arkansas all season. Wichita's best wins are Illinois State (twice) and South Dakota State (only NCAA tournament team they beat). Come on.

I have Kentucky beating Dayton in the 2nd round.
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onebadrubi

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2017, 11:02:21 am »

Well, lets look at things we know for sure.

Wich st has beat no one that is really any good this year. 

Wich st can play a good defense and really hurt Kentucky from driving to the basket, however UK can shoot from the perimeter to get Wich st out of that packed in defense.

Mountiedawg is here only to take up and defend anything Kentucky. 

Also, while dayton may very well beat WS, they really only have soochie smith who has been a leader of that team.  They had alittle slump as of late so hopefully they didn't peak too soon.  I picked wich st to beat dayton and think they could give UK some issues.  I always look ahead though and they allure to UK playing UCLA for revenge may do two things, it could be destiny that they play each other again or it could make UK look past wich st and get upset.  I'd be interested to see the Vegas line of UK vs Wich st.  I bet Wich st gets hammered with spread bets
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Rainmaker203

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2017, 11:50:35 am »

Wichita State does several things as well as any team in the nation.  They are excellent at shutting down interior players (#7 in the nation in 2-point % defense), preventing 2nd chance points (#7 in the nation at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds), and shoot the ball extremely well from outside (#3 in the nation in 3-point %).  They are a team perfectly built to neutralize Bam Adebayo inside.

The big question for me is how are they going to slow down Kentucky's penetrating guards, especially Fox.  Wichita State has athleticism, but not quite at the level of Kentucky.

If you go here, you can see the Pomeroy rankings' % chances of each team advancing to each round:  http://kenpom.com/blog/

The Pomeroy computer rankings say Wichita State has a 37.3% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.  I'd put the odds at closer to 30%.  Pomeroy would have Kentucky as a 1 point favorite over Wichita, so I suspect the opening line will be somewhere around Kentucky -3 if the teams do happen to play in the 2nd round.  It is extremely rare for a Vegas line to be more than 2-3 points different than the Pomeroy projected result.
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Hoggish1

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2017, 11:52:42 am »

Wichita State beating KY would be beyond sweet!
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ShadowHawg

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2017, 11:53:51 am »

I think Dayton will beat Wichita St. in the first round. They are a good senior laden team.

This. Wichita is going to have to play extremely well to get btw Dayton.
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BannerMountainMan

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2017, 11:59:09 am »

What are y'all talking about????? Kentucky isn't getting by Northern Kentucky
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2017, 12:03:19 pm »

Pomeroy efficiency stats are adjusted for schedule strength, and those adjustments might introduce distortion. Certainly do, as they overrate mediocre teams from top conferences.

You can't fake shooting percentages. Wichita's field goal % defense is outstanding, and their 3-point shooting is too. They also have been excellent at getting fouled and making free throws.

Can't fake rebounding percentages either. Their rebounding percentages are very good, especially on the defensive end.

Wichita also plays more bench than almost anybody.

If they get a chance to play Kentucky, note -

UK's very good at perimeter defense, but their outside shooting is mediocre.

They make their living in the paint, layups and dunks.

UK also depends on getting fouled, not quite so good shooting at the line though.

Kentucky's ballhandling is outstanding, offensive rebounding is good, defensive rebounding is decent. They are pretty average when it comes to fouling.

Kentucky absolutely depends on getting a lot of quick and easy baskets. When they bog down and half to run offense, they look like darn.
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3kgthog

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2017, 12:13:16 pm »

One hard foul in the first 10 mins on a driving Monk or Fox and you'll see those 175 lb stick figures get a little skittish. It's what we should've done in both games against the Jackass of Bluegrass.
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HawgTrough

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2017, 12:17:53 pm »

Dayton can beat Kentucky
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ShadowHawg

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2017, 12:19:56 pm »

Pomeroy efficiency stats are adjusted for schedule strength, and those adjustments might introduce distortion. Certainly do, as they overrate mediocre teams from top conferences.

You can't fake shooting percentages. Wichita's field goal % defense is outstanding, and their 3-point shooting is too. They also have been excellent at getting fouled and making free throws.

Can't fake rebounding percentages either. Their rebounding percentages are very good, especially on the defensive end.

Wichita also plays more bench than almost anybody.

If they get a chance to play Kentucky, note -

UK's very good at perimeter defense, but their outside shooting is mediocre.

They make their living in the paint, layups and dunks.

UK also depends on getting fouled, not quite so good shooting at the line though.

Kentucky's ballhandling is outstanding, offensive rebounding is good, defensive rebounding is decent. They are pretty average when it comes to fouling.

Kentucky absolutely depends on getting a lot of quick and easy baskets. When they bog down and half to run offense, they look like darn.

I have seen Wichita a lot coming down the stretch. They are hot, but they aren't even close to world beaters. They are playing our non p5 noncon schedule since January.

Statistical analysis doesn't account for how a stat is accumulated. All missed shots are equal whether it's from 2 feet or 20 feet for instance. Was the 2 foot shot by a 5'5" guy going against a 7 footer or a blown break away layup?

Statistical analysis in combination with personal observation reveals more truth than either just one or the other does.

In watching Wichita, the thing that most jumped out at me was just how bad the other teams they played were in terms of athletes at all positions. Wichita's greatest asset was physical in nature. Stats will never show that.

That being said, Wichita will not put better athletes on the floor than anyone they play from now on, and certainly not against Kentucky.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2017, 01:45:59 pm »

I have seen Wichita a lot coming down the stretch. They are hot, but they aren't even close to world beaters. They are playing our non p5 noncon schedule since January.

Statistical analysis doesn't account for how a stat is accumulated. All missed shots are equal whether it's from 2 feet or 20 feet for instance. Was the 2 foot shot by a 5'5" guy going against a 7 footer or a blown break away layup?

Statistical analysis in combination with personal observation reveals more truth than either just one or the other does.

In watching Wichita, the thing that most jumped out at me was just how bad the other teams they played were in terms of athletes at all positions. Wichita's greatest asset was physical in nature. Stats will never show that.

That being said, Wichita will not put better athletes on the floor than anyone they play from now on, and certainly not against Kentucky.

Yup, I don't even know whether Wichita can win one game. Dayton is a tough draw for them.
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hawgmasta

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2017, 03:04:24 pm »

If Kentucky shoots like they did against us they can potentially win it all. If they struggle and the pressure of it all gets to them they're in trouble with Dayton or Wichita St.
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TushCrush

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2017, 03:34:49 pm »

In tournament data collected from 1985 - 2016 championship games you will find these trends:
Kentucky has an avantage wearing the blue uniforms. Blue teams (Kentucky) defeat yellow teams (Wichita State) 55% of the time.
Mascots are a different story. Miscellaneous mascots (Shockers) win at a 67% rate against Cat mascots (Kentucky).
So if you apply these trends to earlier round games then yes ... Wichita State has a chance.
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RzRbAcK18

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2017, 04:10:40 pm »

I have already stated it once before but in my bracket(s) I do not have Kentucky going very far. They have been inconsistent throughout the year and when they get away from the BBN and the SEC refs, I think they lose.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2017, 04:15:09 pm »

I have already stated it once before but in my bracket(s) I do not have Kentucky going very far. They have been inconsistent throughout the year and when they get away from the BBN and the SEC refs, I think they lose.


I don't see them getting past UCLA, but neither Wichita nor Dayton will be taking them out.
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LR_Matt

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2017, 07:42:46 pm »

He seemed to not be able to the season he was undefeated and played an 8 loss UK team, but maybe that game was played on a day that is not in a week?  Is that possible????
Boom!
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jm

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2017, 09:07:55 pm »

One hard foul in the first 10 mins on a driving Monk or Fox and you'll see those 175 lb stick figures get a little skittish. It's what we should've done in both games against the Jackass of Bluegrass.


Probably a lot of truth to this. Monk is not really a problem, but Fox is incredibly difficult to deal with. To beat KY you must figure out some way to control him or get him out of the game  mentally and  physically.
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onebadrubi

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2017, 09:30:58 pm »

One hard foul in the first 10 mins on a driving Monk or Fox and you'll see those 175 lb stick figures get a little skittish. It's what we should've done in both games against the Jackass of Bluegrass.

I think people miss this too often.  Use to be called setting the tempo with a hard foul, something a cook or bailey could be in the first sub route after the first TV time out for.  Plant them one time and set a tone. 
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HawgnCorona

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2017, 09:33:03 pm »

I'm hoping for a 2014 payback

Call me a hater and a conference deserter, but all would be well in my world to see this happen.  Looking at what little I know about Wich. this year, a few numbers may reveal they're capable of it.



Hopefully, it happens...
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bearmkt

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #26 on: March 15, 2017, 10:59:39 pm »

Would be more interesting to see Kentucky win out in the bracket and hogs win out in the bracket with a rematch in Memphis
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pigture perfect

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Re: What are the chances Wichita St. bounces KY in the second round ?
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2017, 11:13:01 pm »

I hope we get Ky again.  Only hand foul them at 19:05 in the 1st half instead of at the end of the game.
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