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Author Topic: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...  (Read 910 times)

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Which one would you pick? Here are three sets of per game averages with regard to 1st down defense allowed by rush, pass and penalty and the same for for 3rd downs and 4th downs. Which set of numbers would you match up to the correct season?

          1st Down Defense                    3rd Down Conv Allowed                  4th Down Conv Allowed
    Rushing    Passing    Penalty        Rushing     Passing     Penalty         Rushing      Passing      Penalty
A.    7.5          8.8         1.0              2.5           3.2          0.2                0.2           0.0           0.1
B.    8.8          9.3         0.8              2.8           2.8          0.2                0.6           0.0           0.2
C.    6.9         12.2        1.0              2.4           3.3          0.2                0.5           0.2           0.1

The answer may be more difficult than you suspect. I know that everyone can research this but that isn't the point. By first glance, which year would you put with each set of game averages without looking it up? Obviously, you are your own Test Monitor. ;)
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Bacons Rebellion

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2017, 07:36:15 pm »

I don't understand what your data is.
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TebowHater

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2017, 09:45:05 pm »

I would say:

B is 2016 (our secondary was better last year with CPR but run D bad)
C 2014 (Bermuda triangle good against run)
A 2015
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2017, 11:17:30 pm »

All jumbled up on my phone.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2017, 06:55:47 am »

I would say:

B is 2016 (our secondary was better last year with CPR but run D bad)
C 2014 (Bermuda triangle good against run)
A 2015

For those of you who didn't understand the data, those are the Hogs defensive season (or game) averages for 1st downs allowed per game by run, pass and by penalty and the same for 3rd down and for 4th down.

Actually the order is as follows:

A-2014
B-2016
C-2015

It isn't impossible to guess which one belongs with each year, but it isn't easy at a glance because there isn't a huge difference in those numbers year to year with few exceptions.

The more telling information by year is the average number of plays allowed (per game) from 10-19 yards(expressed as 10+), 20-29 yards(expressed as 20+), 30-39 yards(expressed as 30+), and so on. Let me put that information together (in the same order as above) and you will begin to see the differences.

               10+     20+     30+     40+     50+     60+       70+       80+      90+      Avg P/GM Total      % of Defensive Plays P/GM

A(2014)    12.2     3.4      1.6     1.0      0.4      0.2        0.1        0.1       0.0              18.9                         30.0%

B(2016)     14.1     5.5      3.1     2.0      1.1      0.5       0.3        0.2       0.2               26.9                         42.6%

C(2015)     14.5     5.1      2.1     0.8      0.4      0.2       0.2        0.1       0.0               23.3                         36.1%

So if you look at that you can see a steady progression of lack of performance from 2014-2016, just about a 6% increase in big plays allowed each year.

Another big and obvious factor is Scoring defense. In 2014 the Hogs defense averaged allowing 11.8 points in the RZ and 7.8 points per game outside the RZ. In 2015 it changed to 20.8 in the RZ and 6.6 from outside the RZ. In 2016 it increased to 20.2 and 10.8.

These numbers reflect just how badly our defense has regressed from 2014 through the 2016 season and how big of a challenge that Paul Rhoads has in front of him. We could dive deeper into TFL, Sacks, PBU's and INT's but big plays allowed and ultimately the scoring that is allowed are just the numbers that are produced from a lack of success in all of those areas.

The change to the 3-4 should put more players in a position to make plays with an emphasis on speed and less movement in the defensive alignment to counter the motion and movement of opposing offenses but we are going to need to cut down on big plays allowed per game by a wide margin if we hope to give our offense an opportunity to outscore our opponents. When 42.6% of your defensive snaps each game (on average) allow 10 or more yards to your opponents, it is going to be hard to win games.

I'm looking forward to seeing what changes Rhoads makes in our defensive production.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 07:51:24 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2017, 02:34:17 pm »

Not an inability to understand the data, it is that the numbers are all jumbled up on a smaller screen. Same thing I've had with some of my threads. Probably looks organized and orderly on your screen but is scrambled and impossible to follow on others.

You could take a screenshot and post that image.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2017, 02:40:35 pm »

Not an inability to understand the data, it is that the numbers are all jumbled up on a smaller screen. Same thing I've had with some of my threads. Probably looks organized and orderly on your screen but is scrambled and impossible to follow on others.

You could take a screenshot and post that image.

I wasn't necessarily speaking to you, Benny. Another poster above said they didn't understand the data, not a formatting problem. I'm inputting this on a desk top so if you are trying to view it on something smaller than a laptop, I could see where the data might run together. I've experienced the same thing trying to use my phone for Hogville. Good luck.
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HiggiePiggy

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2017, 03:33:50 pm »

My hope are that we can have a defense that is between 2014 and 2015 with our offense getting into the top 60 overall in the second half and staying in the top 30s in the first half. That should equal 8 or 9 wins in the regular season.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2017, 06:20:02 pm »

My hope are that we can have a defense that is between 2014 and 2015 with our offense getting into the top 60 overall in the second half and staying in the top 30s in the first half. That should equal 8 or 9 wins in the regular season.

I think we need to be a top 30-40 defense in our first year of the 3-4 defense to be the kind of defense that we need that allows our offense to win games for us. Do that defensively and progress even a little bit more on offense and the question will be whether we win 9 or 10 games.
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Bacons Rebellion

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2017, 09:12:15 am »

I wasn't necessarily speaking to you, Benny. Another poster above said they didn't understand the data, not a formatting problem. I'm inputting this on a desk top so if you are trying to view it on something smaller than a laptop, I could see where the data might run together. I've experienced the same thing trying to use my phone for Hogville. Good luck.

Okay, make sense now. To me, "First down defense" is a lot different than "First downs allowed." And (again, to  me) "3rd Down Conversion allowed" isn't helpful without a denominator other than game.

The big plays allowed just makes me cry. If you had wanted to bet me a couple of years ago that we would have a bad defense but an impressive passing offense under CBB, you could have won some money.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2017, 10:40:57 am »

Okay, make sense now. To me, "First down defense" is a lot different than "First downs allowed." And (again, to  me) "3rd Down Conversion allowed" isn't helpful without a denominator other than game.

The big plays allowed just makes me cry. If you had wanted to bet me a couple of years ago that we would have a bad defense but an impressive passing offense under CBB, you could have won some money.

Here's one of the really sad parts in terms of big plays...the A&M game.

In the first half of that game we allowed A&M 5 big plays for 181 yards, 36.2 yards per play.

In the second half after making zero adjustments (I can only assume from what we saw) we allowed A&M 11 big plays for 323 yards, 29.4 yards per play.

That's a total of 16 plays for 504 yards at an average of 31.5 yards per play. A&M only ran 59 plays and had 591 total yards of offense. So for 43 plays of the game we held them to 87 total yards, just a hair over 2 yards per play, but when we had a break down on defense, we really broke down.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2017, 01:19:47 pm »

I'm guessing it goes CAB
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Bacons Rebellion

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2017, 02:06:10 pm »

.... A&M only ran 59 plays and had 591 total yards of offense. So for 43 plays of the game we held them to 87 total yards, just a hair over 2 yards per play, but when we had a break down on defense, we really broke down.

The "Break but don't bend" defense has been requested a lot over the years here.
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factchecker

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2017, 02:18:45 pm »

So for 43 plays of the game we held them to 87 total yards, just a hair over 2 yards per play, but when we had a break down on defense, we really broke down.

A defense that has this problem becomes disheartened.  Nothing worse for you to be doing your job and kicking butt (2 yards per play) to have it all wiped out in one big play.  The big question is how do you stop that from happening.
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PorkSoda

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2017, 03:08:12 pm »

A defense that has this problem becomes disheartened.  Nothing worse for you to be doing your job and kicking butt (2 yards per play) to have it all wiped out in one big play.  The big question is how do you stop that from happening.
not sure you can, broken plays are going to happen from time to time, but if I had to come up with a solution, it would be to recruit a 4.3 guy at free safety to clean up broken plays.  last guy we had like that was michael grant.  I think it posted a 4.37 at the combine in 2008.

at the combine this year there were 10 guys that ran a 4.40 or under. (6 DBs, 3WRs, 1 RB) 5 of those were from school we should be able to compete with in recruiting (Minn, UCLA, N. Carolina, Central Florida, UConn)

« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 05:04:13 pm by PorkSoda »
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2017, 06:47:48 pm »

not sure you can, broken plays are going to happen from time to time, but if I had to come up with a solution, it would be to recruit a 4.3 guy at free safety to clean up broken plays.  last guy we had like that was michael grant.  I think it posted a 4.37 at the combine in 2008.

at the combine this year there were 10 guys that ran a 4.40 or under. (6 DBs, 3WRs, 1 RB) 5 of those were from school we should be able to compete with in recruiting (Minn, UCLA, N. Carolina, Central Florida, UConn)

John Ross: 4.22, offered by everybody in the PAC 12. 247 shows us on the interested list, but no offer. Overall,  almost all of his offers were solely west coast. Was rated as a 4* 90+ on 247, so not so much a talent issue that only local schools paid attention, but probably he only wanted to play in the PAC.

Jalen Myrick was a 3* with the impressive offer list of Colorado State, ULL, Midd Tenn, and then Minn. Kid out of Georgia that nobody else seemed to want except Minn.

Curtis Samuel: 4*, 97, recruited by everybody

Fabian Moreau: 2* with offers from Bryan Uni, FIU, FAU, KSU, Western Illinois, WMU, and UCLA. Also, not sure if you pay much attention to the PAC 12, but saying we should be able to recruit with UCLA is asinine. For starters, there classes are typically under-ranked because they don't a ton of players, but even then, it is very rare for a class to rank outside of the top 20 for them. Top 15 is a common occurrence and every few years, sometimes more, they pull in top 10 classes.

Marshon Lattimore: 4*, 97, offers from everyone

TJ Logan: 4* 93, turned down offers from Clemson and Ohio State among many others to stay home and play for NC who has had a lot of high draft picks but very little to show at the college level.

Sahquill Griffin: 3* from FL, had interest from the big florida schools but no offers. Had offers from the SEC and Big 10, but turned them down to play at UCF.

Josh Malone, 4* 98, offers from everyone, from Tenner and went to tenner.

Obi Melifonwu: UConn was his only offer. Not a single other school offered.

Cordrea Tankerley: Clemson was his only listed offer as well.

We have had some really fast hogs that never sniffed the field because they weren't good football players. 40% of the players that were invited to the combine and ran a 4.40 or faster had only one offer from a decent school and went to that school. Another 30% had their minds made up where they wanted to play before recruiting every began and wanted to stay home and play. Only 30% were highly recruited players with offers from a lot of big schools that didn't simply choose their home school.

What does this tell us? Well, of the 300+ invited to the combine, <10 ran sub 4.40. About 3% of the top players in college football can run a 4.40 or faster. The other 97% are slower. 50 total players ran faster than a 4.50 or just over 15%. Back to the hyper fast players though, this shows us that those really fast players are rare to begin with. Further, of the ones that pan out as being good football players, it's a pretty random distribution. The top schools aren't the one's hoarding these ultra fast players. They tend to look for other things as well. Many of the players were not given scholarships to any other school than the one they went to. A couple had good offer lists but no amount of recruiting was going to get them to go somewhere else, a couple others were determined to stay in their region. Basically, for every John Ross, there are many Hawkins. For every Obi Melinfonwu, there's multiple Drew Gortons.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2017, 06:55:57 pm »

A defense that has this problem becomes disheartened.  Nothing worse for you to be doing your job and kicking butt (2 yards per play) to have it all wiped out in one big play.  The big question is how do you stop that from happening.

I agree but it happened repeatedly so you can see where this defense got discouraged as the season wore on.

Vs. Alabama: 72 plays allowing 172 yards at 2.4 yds p/play and 12 plays allowing 345 yards at 28.8 yds p/play.

Vs. Auburn: 51 plays allowing 192 yards at 3.8 yds p/play and 18 plays allowing 440 yards at 24.4 yds p/play.

Vs. LSU: 49 plays allowing 139 yards at 2.8 yds p/play and 18 plays allowing 408 yards at 22.7 yds p/play.

Vs. Missouri: 46 plays allowing 65 yards at 1.4 yds p/play and 10 plays allowing 334 yards at 33.4 yds p/play.

The Va Tech game wasn't as bad but the numbers are still quite a negative. 62 plays allowing 123 yards at 2.0 yds p/play and 16 plays allowing 279 yards at 17.4 yds p/play.

I could go on but it is the same story in virtually every game, maybe to a slightly lesser extent.

This has to be Rhoads biggest challenge. Yes we are switching defensive philosophies to put more speed on the field and that alone is a challenge, but the bigger challenge has to be finding a way to limit the big plays that have been killing our defense.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 06:59:02 pm »

As for the scheme, there are two major trains of thought. You can play safe or play aggressive. You can play to stop the big play, force the offense to grind it out and capitalize on mistakes that they make to get the ball back. Or, you can fast and aggressive, and try to force the other team into making mistakes.

The obvious downside of the first style of play is that if you are going up against a well coached team that doesn't make mistakes, the bend but don't break will bend right into the end zone. The error of the second approach is that it leaves you vulnerable if you don't force the mistake.

In any defense, there are going to be holes. In style A, you try to make sure those holes are like a piece of swiss cheese. They may hit the hole, but the distance you can go afterwards is minimal. In style B, the goal is to limit the time the offense has to find any holes. If you don't have the ability to actually force the quick decision, then it leaves you schematically at a disadvantage. If you are playing against a quick thinking qb who can get the ball out quickly while still making a good decision, that can leave you at a disadvantage. For the first style, if you don't have the speed to fill the back ends of having holes, then you are at a disadvantage. If you are playing a team that doesn't mind not getting big plays and can sustain drives without shooting themselves in the foot, you are at a disadvantage.

These two are basically the two extreme ends of a spectra. A defense may be aggressive on one play and safe on 2. A defense may be aggressive on the front 7 and play prevent with the secondary. Etc...
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2017, 07:25:43 pm »

I agree but it happened repeatedly so you can see where this defense got discouraged as the season wore on.

Vs. Alabama: 72 plays allowing 172 yards at 2.4 yds p/play and 12 plays allowing 345 yards at 28.8 yds p/play.

Vs. Auburn: 51 plays allowing 192 yards at 3.8 yds p/play and 18 plays allowing 440 yards at 24.4 yds p/play.

Vs. LSU: 49 plays allowing 139 yards at 2.8 yds p/play and 18 plays allowing 408 yards at 22.7 yds p/play.

Vs. Missouri: 46 plays allowing 65 yards at 1.4 yds p/play and 10 plays allowing 334 yards at 33.4 yds p/play.

The Va Tech game wasn't as bad but the numbers are still quite a negative. 62 plays allowing 123 yards at 2.0 yds p/play and 16 plays allowing 279 yards at 17.4 yds p/play.

I could go on but it is the same story in virtually every game, maybe to a slightly lesser extent.

This has to be Rhoads biggest challenge. Yes we are switching defensive philosophies to put more speed on the field and that alone is a challenge, but the bigger challenge has to be finding a way to limit the big plays that have been killing our defense.

How different is that from any other defense though? Let's look at Bama

vs USC
64 plays, 96 yards, 1.5 ypp, 3 plays 98 yards, 32.7 yup

vs WKU
57 plays 103 yards, 1.8 ypp, 3 plays, 118 yards, 39.3 ypp

vs OM
68 plays 311 4.6, 5 plays 211 42.2 ypp

vs Kent
45 plays 58 yards 1.3, 3 plays 108 yards 36

vs Ark (84 473
71 plays, 138 yards, 1.94 yards per play. 13 plays, 335 yards, 25.8 ypp

ETC...

Point being, isn't that what happens to most defenses? Very, very few times does anybody consistently just give up 6 or 7 yards per play. You tend to give up 1-3 yards, or 10+ yards or a loss on the play.

It seems at first glance that the problem isn't being demoralized by doing well most of the time but giving up big plays here and there. I chose Bama just because they are Bama, but I'd wager you look at the top 10 defenses and they give up few yards most plays and big yards on a few plays. The biggest difference between the top defenses and the worst defenses are going to be two-fold. How many negative plays do you make, and how few 20+ yard plays do you give up?
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PorkSoda

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2017, 07:49:10 pm »


sure every player is different, michael grant was a 4.37 guy that went to arkansas and ended up being an undrafted free agent.  but nobody got past him on a broken play.  he ran down every single one.  (at least from my memory from 10 years ago, lol)

the question was how we stop big game breaking plays? by having someone who is hella fast to run them down.

my point was that those players exist every year.  we need to get one if we want to have a defense that is not going to regularly give up TD's off of broken plays.

we will see in a couple days who our fastest seniors are, but at the combine I think our fast guy was 4.63 and he was a TE.  OM's TE runs a 4.41.  we aren't going to catch a 4.4 guy with 4.6 guys in the defensive back field.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2017, 12:19:05 am »

sure every player is different, michael grant was a 4.37 guy that went to arkansas and ended up being an undrafted free agent.  but nobody got past him on a broken play.  he ran down every single one.  (at least from my memory from 10 years ago, lol)

        30-49   50-69    70+
run    12(1)    12(6)    3(1)
pass  39(13)  8(3)      4(3)
total   51(14)  20(9)    7(4)   75(27)

A little over 1.5 30+ yard plays per game, over 0.5 td's allowed per game as well. I doubt he was somehow off the field for each and every instance. 

Quote
the question was how we stop big game breaking plays? by having someone who is hella fast to run them down.

The answer is you can't, not completely. Go ahead and look. One caveat I do have to add is within the past 30 years. I'm pretty sure there was some team back in the long ago that went an entire season without giving up a single point.

All you can do is limit the probability of such an event happening. And that has a lot to do with scheme and the overall talent and speed of the defense. If speed was all that mattered, why did guys like Ross with UW and Heyward-Bey from MD not have video game numbers? I mean, at best, they played 1 game per season where the other team remotely had a player with a tenth of a second as fast as them. If speed was what was so important, why did we give up 75 plays over 30 yards and 27 plays over 50 yards when Grant was here? Getting penetration on the DL is going to prevent more of those plays than having a fast corner/safety will.

Quote
my point was that those players exist every year.  we need to get one if we want to have a defense that is not going to regularly give up TD's off of broken plays.

Those players are rare. We have a handful of those types of players and most of them don't pan out as football players. That there exist 10 in the entire combine, distributed pretty randomly among teams suggests that they are not a player one can simply go out and get one. The odds of you signing somebody that fast are small, the odds of them panning out as a football player are even smaller than other players.

Quote
we will see in a couple days who our fastest seniors are, but at the combine I think our fast guy was 4.63 and he was a TE.  OM's TE runs a 4.41.  we aren't going to catch a 4.4 guy with 4.6 guys in the defensive back field.

At the combine we had 2 WR's, a TE, an OL, 2 DL, and a LB. 4.64 was our fastest time, and no, he wasn't a TE, he was Keon Hatcher. Sprinkle ran a 4.69.

Also, here's a breakdown of the forty times for TE's at the combine from 2006-2017. You can lose a finger a still count the number of TE's who have run faster than a 4.50 forty time on a single hand.

4.3-4.39  4.4-4.49  4.5-4.59  4.6-4.69  4.7-4.89  4.90+
       1           3            19           37          54         16

Vernon Davis ran a 4.38, has had a mixed career.
Dorin Dickerson, 2012, has been MIA in the NFL, 4.40
Engram: 4.42, TBD.
James Hannah: 4.49, nada

We can't catch Engram? 15 catches in his career against us. 1 td. In the 3 games he played against us, OM never once won.

Now sure, more speed among good players is always a better thing. However, Give me a Morgan over a Hawkins any day and a Hatcher over a Reed. Putting a single 4.40 or faster guy in the backfield isn't going to be some magical elixir to fix the defense. The field is pretty dang wide.
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PorkSoda

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2017, 02:15:07 am »

I agree there is a lot more too it than speed, I mean we are talking fractions of a second.  but how many times did we run someone down from behind?  Eastern Michigan couldnt run down broderick green.  its not easy to do.  Seems a lot of coaches put their fastest guy on offense, but I wouldn't mind if we looked for a true speedster even if we have to teach them the finer points of playing safety. 

of course that's just me speculating on the question posed.  Im sure other people have there own idea about what might be the missing puzzle piece. I know we have quite a few guys from this last recruiting class going through spring drills.  should be interesting to see if any push for a starting role.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 02:44:33 am by PorkSoda »
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2017, 03:03:57 am »

I agree there is a lot more too it than speed, I mean we are talking fractions of a second.  but how many times did we run someone down from behind?  Eastern Michigan couldnt run down broderick green.  its not easy to do.  Seems a lot of coaches put their fastest guy on offense, but I wouldn't mind us look for a true speedster and teach them how to play safety we have to. 

of course that's just me speculating on the question posed.  Im sure other people have there own idea about what might be the missing puzzle piece. I know we have quite a few guys from this last recruiting class going through spring drills.  should be interesting to see if any push for a starting role.

Green actually was run down from behind on his 99 yard run. He had to break a tackle and then receive a block to go the other 50 or so yards.

Don't get me wrong, my post history has plenty of examples over the past couple years saying we would be greatly improved by more speed at the safety position.

Tremain Thomas was the last great Safety I feel like we had and his pro day numbers reflect that. Faster and more explosive than Ken Hamlin, but lacking the change of direction. Thomas ran a 4.51 forty with a 1.54 split, 38.5" vert, 10' broad, 4.35 shuttle, 8.01 3cone, 10 bench, 6' 200.

Apart from him, we've had, in recent years
Bennett 4.69 (1.60), 34.5" vert, 9'6" broad, 4.44 shuttle, 7.22 3cone, 10 bench, 5'9 190
Rasner 4.61 (1.60), 33.5" vert, 10' broad, 4.58 shuttle, 7.21 3cone, 21 bench, 6' 207
Gaines 4.60 (1.59), 32" vert, 10'1" broad, 4.48 shuttle, 7.24 3cone, 20 bench, 5'10 194
Turner 4.66 (1.70), 33" vert, 10'1" broad, 4.50 shuttle, 7.07 3cone, 16 bench, 5'10 207

For comparison, middle of the pack combine numbers (so not elite, but still very good go as follows)
 4.57/8 forty, 35-37" vert, 9'10"-10'2" broad, 4.20 shuttle, 7s 3cone, 16-19 bench, 5'11 200

Hamlin: 4.61 (1.59), 33" vert, 9'9" broad, 3.92 shuttle, 6.80 3cone, 16 bench, 6'2 209.

So, when talking about speed, we haven't had the fastest players, but their speed has not been a liability relatively speaking. Average for players at the combine which is above average for college overall. The big thing you see with Hamlin is that his speed isn't anything we haven't had the past 5 years. However, look at those quickness numbers. That shuttle and 3cone is immensely better than anybody we've had in recent times.

I think our DB's coming in with this class are a whole other breed of athlete from what we've had in recent years and look forward to watching them play.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2017, 06:15:39 am »

How different is that from any other defense though? Let's look at Bama

It seems at first glance that the problem isn't being demoralized by doing well most of the time but giving up big plays here and there. I chose Bama just because they are Bama, but I'd wager you look at the top 10 defenses and they give up few yards most plays and big yards on a few plays. The biggest difference between the top defenses and the worst defenses are going to be two-fold. How many negative plays do you make, and how few 20+ yard plays do you give up?

Point being, it is the frequency with which you give up plays of 10 yards or more. I'd take giving up 3-4-5 plays a game allowing 10+ yards to giving up 10-18 plays each game that allow 10+ yards and generally average 17 to 28 yards per play. When the percentage of big plays allowed by your defense remain in the single digits (1% to 9.99%) in the vast majority of your games, you are in pretty good shape. When 14% to 28% of your defensive plays are allowing 10+ yards p/play to an opponent, you are in trouble most of the time and it puts an incredible amount of pressure on your offense to carry the day for everyone.
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Pork Twain

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2017, 06:33:06 am »

Not an inability to understand the data, it is that the numbers are all jumbled up on a smaller screen. Same thing I've had with some of my threads. Probably looks organized and orderly on your screen but is scrambled and impossible to follow on others.

You could take a screenshot and post that image.
That is exactly why I have gone strictly to taking screenshot and making Jpegs.  For some reason, there is still not an insert table function here.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2017, 07:44:15 am »

I put these numbers together excluding the Alcorn game (probably should have excluded Texas State as well) so the base number of total defensive plays used is 765, not 822. But in looking at those 12 games I saw that there were 167 defensive plays where the opponent gained 10 yards or more. That came to 21.8% of all defensive plays over those 12 games and 1 play over 10 yards in every 4.6 defensive snaps on average.

What I found more curious (and it may be the same for every team...I haven't checked yet) was when the big plays were allowed by down.

1st Down: 76 plays-1653 yards-21.8 yards p/play-45.5% of all big plays
2nd Down: 47 plays-1127 yards-24.0 yards p/play-29.8% of all big plays
3rd Down: 42 plays-987 yards-23.5 yards p/play-26.1% of all big plays
4th Down: 2 plays-20 yards-10.0 yards p/play-0.5% of all big plays

This surprised me. Why so many big plays allowed on 1st Down and by such a wide margin compared to the other downs? 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2017, 09:45:11 am »

How different is that from any other defense though? Let's look at Bama

vs USC
64 plays, 96 yards, 1.5 ypp, 3 plays 98 yards, 32.7 yup
 

By the way, in this particular example that you cited, let's look at it with a few more numbers and focusing on any play that USC generated that was 10 or more yards.

USC Total Offense Vs. Alabama: 67 plays for 194 yards at 2.9 yards p/play.
USC Big Plays (10 yards or more): 5 plays for 126 yards at 25.2 yards p/play (7.5% of all plays)
USC Remaining Plays: 62 plays for 68 yards at 1.1 yards p/play (92.5% of all plays)

I'm not sure why you offered this particular game as an example, but I would take that kind of defense that limits an opponents total big plays in a game to a single digit percentage of the total plays not only any day, but every game day.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2017, 12:56:58 pm »

By the way, in this particular example that you cited, let's look at it with a few more numbers and focusing on any play that USC generated that was 10 or more yards.

USC Total Offense Vs. Alabama: 67 plays for 194 yards at 2.9 yards p/play.
USC Big Plays (10 yards or more): 5 plays for 126 yards at 25.2 yards p/play (7.5% of all plays)
USC Remaining Plays: 62 plays for 68 yards at 1.1 yards p/play (92.5% of all plays)

I'm not sure why you offered this particular game as an example, but I would take that kind of defense that limits an opponents total big plays in a game to a single digit percentage of the total plays not only any day, but every game day.

My cutoff for a big play was 30 yards or more, not 10.

I didn't pick out any particular games. I picked Bama because they are typically regarded as the benchmark team and simply went through game by game, not cherry picking anything. Once I had made it through several games, the trend was pretty obvious and I didn't feel the need to go much further. I knew that we tore their defense up pretty well so I did skip one game to move ahead to Arkansas and then stop with the analysis.

From your posts and the general topic of conversation at the time, I didn't see anything about the number of big plays allowed. There was considerable lamenting that our defense did very good for most of the game and only gave up big yards on some of the plays. However, that particular aspect is true of most every defense, with the major difference b/w a good defense and a bad one being the # of big plays you give up and the #of negative plays you generate.

Looking at your stats
vs Bama, we allowed big plays, which by your threshold I'm guessing 10 yards?, on 14% of plays
auburn 26%
lsu: 27%
mizzou: 18%
VT: 20%

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2017, 04:45:35 pm »

My cutoff for a big play was 30 yards or more, not 10.

I didn't pick out any particular games. I picked Bama because they are typically regarded as the benchmark team and simply went through game by game, not cherry picking anything. Once I had made it through several games, the trend was pretty obvious and I didn't feel the need to go much further. I knew that we tore their defense up pretty well so I did skip one game to move ahead to Arkansas and then stop with the analysis.

From your posts and the general topic of conversation at the time, I didn't see anything about the number of big plays allowed. There was considerable lamenting that our defense did very good for most of the game and only gave up big yards on some of the plays. However, that particular aspect is true of most every defense, with the major difference b/w a good defense and a bad one being the # of big plays you give up and the #of negative plays you generate.

Looking at your stats
vs Bama, we allowed big plays, which by your threshold I'm guessing 10 yards?, on 14% of plays
auburn 26%
lsu: 27%
mizzou: 18%
VT: 20%



For those of you who didn't understand the data, those are the Hogs defensive season (or game) averages for 1st downs allowed per game by run, pass and by penalty and the same for 3rd down and for 4th down.

Actually the order is as follows:

A-2014
B-2016
C-2015

It isn't impossible to guess which one belongs with each year, but it isn't easy at a glance because there isn't a huge difference in those numbers year to year with few exceptions.

The more telling information by year is the average number of plays allowed (per game) from 10-19 yards(expressed as 10+), 20-29 yards(expressed as 20+), 30-39 yards(expressed as 30+), and so on. Let me put that information together (in the same order as above) and you will begin to see the differences.

               10+     20+     30+     40+     50+     60+       70+       80+      90+      Avg P/GM Total      % of Defensive Plays P/GM

A(2014)    12.2     3.4      1.6     1.0      0.4      0.2        0.1        0.1       0.0              18.9                         30.0%

B(2016)     14.1     5.5      3.1     2.0      1.1      0.5       0.3        0.2       0.2               26.9                         42.6%

C(2015)     14.5     5.1      2.1     0.8      0.4      0.2       0.2        0.1       0.0               23.3                         36.1%

So if you look at that you can see a steady progression of lack of performance from 2014-2016, just about a 6% increase in big plays allowed each year.

Another big and obvious factor is Scoring defense. In 2014 the Hogs defense averaged allowing 11.8 points in the RZ and 7.8 points per game outside the RZ. In 2015 it changed to 20.8 in the RZ and 6.6 from outside the RZ. In 2016 it increased to 20.2 and 10.8.

These numbers reflect just how badly our defense has regressed from 2014 through the 2016 season and how big of a challenge that Paul Rhoads has in front of him. We could dive deeper into TFL, Sacks, PBU's and INT's but big plays allowed and ultimately the scoring that is allowed are just the numbers that are produced from a lack of success in all of those areas.

The change to the 3-4 should put more players in a position to make plays with an emphasis on speed and less movement in the defensive alignment to counter the motion and movement of opposing offenses but we are going to need to cut down on big plays allowed per game by a wide margin if we hope to give our offense an opportunity to outscore our opponents. When 42.6% of your defensive snaps each game (on average) allow 10 or more yards to your opponents, it is going to be hard to win games.

I'm looking forward to seeing what changes Rhoads makes in our defensive production.

Vs. Alabama: 84 total plays for 517 yards allowed and 6.2 p/play (72 plays for 172 yards, 2.4 p/play and 85.7% of all plays and then 12 plays for 345 yards, 28.8 yards p/play and 14.3% of all plays).

I calculated it the same Vs. Auburn, LSU, Missouri and Va Tech.  And yes, those percentages look right without checking but it's the yards allowed within that percentage of plays and the number of plays that represents. The vast majority of our yards.

Our defense allowed 5233 yards (not counting Alcorn) but 3787 of those yards can be attributed to bigger plays that went for more than 10 yards per snap and 76 of those 167 big plays during the season came on 1st down. Good grief.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 05:17:13 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2017, 07:09:01 pm »

usc 194, 67,
126y 5p, 25.2 ypp, 7.5% of plays, 65% of yards

WKU 239, 60
164y, 8p, 20.5 ypp, 13.3% of plays, 69% of yards

OM 522, 73
315y, 13p, 24 ypp, 18% of plays, 60% of yards

kent 166 46
124y 4p, 31 ypp, 8.7% of plays, 74.7% of yards

kentucky 161 58
126y, 10p, 12.6 ypp, 17% of plays, 78% of yards

ark 473 84
402y, 19p, 21.2ypp, 23% of plays, 85% of yards

tenn 163 63
111y, 7p, 15.9ypp, 11% of plays, 68% of yards

LSU 125 51
65y, 3p, 21.7ypp, 5.9% of plays, 52% of yards

msu 274 78
180y, 9p, 20ypp, 11.5% of plays, 66% of yards

auburn 182 45
135y, 5p, 27ypp, 11.1% of plays, 74% of yards

florida 261 69
172y, 10p, 17.2 ypp, 15% of plays, 66% of yards

wash 194 67
143y, 10p, 14.3 ypp, 15% of plays, 74% of yards

clem 511 99
338y, 18p, 18.8ypp, 18.2% of plays, 66% of yards

total: 3465 total yards allowed on 870 plays for an average of 3.99 yards per play. Held 6 p5 teams to under 200 yards of offense with 4 of those teams in conference play. Held 4 teams to less than 60 plays, with 3 of them in conference play as well. Of those 3465 yards, 2401 of those came on chunk plays of 10+ yards, 69.3% of all the yards which is very comparable to the 72% of our yards allowed coming from 10+ yard plays by your numbers. We averaged 22.7 yards per play by your numbers compared to Bama's 19.8 ypp which is again pretty comparable. Bama had 8.07 big plays per game compared to our 12.85, leading to our defense allowing 4.78 more 10+ yard plays per game than their defense did. So, when I say the two averages are comparable, we would have saved 14.3 total yards per game which is pretty small.

If you factor in alcorn, which I don't know why you wouldn't, that 5546 total yards, 4020 on big plays for 72.5% of yards coming from big plays. That bumps up the total of big plays from 167 to 176 with 22.8 yards per big play and thus right at 3 yards per play difference.

Again, if you were simply saying we gave up too many big plays, I'm right there with you and the stats show a big difference there b/w us and Bama with us giving up almost 5 more 10+ yard plays per game than Bama. However, big plays don't make up more of a significant portion of our yards than they do Bama's or presumably any other team out there. Further, the big plays we did give up didn't go for significantly more yards than Bama or presumably anybody else's defense gave up either. Neither of those are really a problem. The problem is the number given up. If we dropped that number to 4.78 fewer big plays per game, that would be about 100 fewer yards given up per game and that would be huge for us.

I'm going to do the numbers for the 2014 defense, because I bet they fall into that same range as well.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2017, 07:11:38 pm »

On 2nd thought, I'm not going to do 2014. It is pretty time consuming, but if you or somebody else would do it, I would love to see the results.
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PorkSoda

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2017, 07:19:38 pm »

interesting stuff.  it does see to point to the # of big plays being more of a determining factor than overall yards given up.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2017, 07:25:15 pm »

On 2nd thought, I'm not going to do 2014. It is pretty time consuming, but if you or somebody else would do it, I would love to see the results.

It is time consuming, you are right. I doubt that I am going to do it right now to the extent that I looked at 2016. But here is a link that takes you to the big plays made and allowed for teams over a span of years. I find it very helpful. I'm sure you already know the link, Benny.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort01.html
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2017, 07:41:15 pm »

interesting stuff.  it does see to point to the # of big plays being more of a determining factor than overall yards given up.

Actually it is both but to me the better predictor is the percentage of big plays allowed compared to the number of total plays. Stay under 10% per game and your defense is making a pretty good showing if your offense is any good at all.

For me it comes down to whether a team would rather allow 8 big plays for an average of say, 24 yards each or allow 16 big plays per game for an average of 22 yards per play? The answer is obvious. If for 90% of your plays you allow 2-2.5 yds per play and the rest of the time you allow 192 yards on 8 plays, the defense is going to be giving the offense every chance it can to win the game.

If we just reduce the big plays that we have been allowing on defense to 10 plays per game at an average of 24 yards per play, our offense should take care of the rest in most games. Of course I would rather see the average play yardage down to 19-20 yards per play but it is more likely that we reduce the number of plays.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #34 on: March 14, 2017, 08:18:58 pm »

Actually it is both but to me the better predictor is the percentage of big plays allowed compared to the number of total plays. Stay under 10% per game and your defense is making a pretty good showing if your offense is any good at all.

For me it comes down to whether a team would rather allow 8 big plays for an average of say, 24 yards each or allow 16 big plays per game for an average of 22 yards per play? The answer is obvious. If for 90% of your plays you allow 2-2.5 yds per play and the rest of the time you allow 192 yards on 8 plays, the defense is going to be giving the offense every chance it can to win the game.

If we just reduce the big plays that we have been allowing on defense to 10 plays per game at an average of 24 yards per play, our offense should take care of the rest in most games. Of course I would rather see the average play yardage down to 19-20 yards per play but it is more likely that we reduce the number of plays.

Also, I've used cfb stats but I forget what they have from time to time and forget to use them.
using that site it shows

2013: 185 vs 814 total snaps for 22.7% of snaps being 10+ yards for rushing and passing plays. 15.4/game
2014: 162 vs 862 total snaps for 19.7% of snaps 12.46/game
2015: 188 vs 839 total snaps for 22.4% of snaps 14.46/game
2016: 183 vs 822 total snaps for 22.3% of snaps 14.07/game

2010: 165 vs 862 total snaps for 19.1% of snaps 12.7/game* comparing to best defense under Petrino.

The percentage of snaps varies very little from one defense to the next with a range of just over 3% difference. However, using cfbstat data, the total per game varies by 2-3 per game for our defense. Now, keep in mind, I don't know how they are counting those plays and I think they may be including penalties or something. I'm only using their passing and running plays, but Musk calculated 167 for 2016 compared to their 183 (even adding in the 9 from alcorn is only 176). I counted 121 for Bama compared to their 147.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2017, 08:35:31 pm »

Also, I've used cfb stats but I forget what they have from time to time and forget to use them.
using that site it shows

2013: 185 vs 814 total snaps for 22.7% of snaps being 10+ yards for rushing and passing plays. 15.4/game
2014: 162 vs 862 total snaps for 19.7% of snaps 12.46/game
2015: 188 vs 839 total snaps for 22.4% of snaps 14.46/game
2016: 183 vs 822 total snaps for 22.3% of snaps 14.07/game

2010: 165 vs 862 total snaps for 19.1% of snaps 12.7/game* comparing to best defense under Petrino.

The percentage of snaps varies very little from one defense to the next with a range of just over 3% difference. However, using cfbstat data, the total per game varies by 2-3 per game for our defense. Now, keep in mind, I don't know how they are counting those plays and I think they may be including penalties or something. I'm only using their passing and running plays, but Musk calculated 167 for 2016 compared to their 183 (even adding in the 9 from alcorn is only 176). I counted 121 for Bama compared to their 147.

I've got different defensive numbers for the Hogs and keep in mind that it all breaks down by 10 yard increments.

As an example:

2013: 814 defensive plays(67.8 p/gm-12 games), 293 for 10 or more yards (24.4 p/gm-12 games). 36% of all defensive snaps went for 10 yards or more.

I'm not sure why we are getting different numbers for 2013 and I'm probably not looking into the other years tonight, but I took my numbers directly from the site.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2017, 08:38:52 pm »

I've got different defensive numbers for the Hogs and keep in mind that it all breaks down by 10 yard increments.

As an example:

2013: 814 defensive plays(67.8 p/gm-12 games), 293 for 10 or more yards (24.4 p/gm-12 games). 36% of all defensive snaps went for 10 yards or more.

I'm not sure why we are getting different numbers for 2013 and I'm probably not looking into the other years tonight, but I took my numbers directly from the site.

It breaks down by increments by it is cumulative. Notice how they say 10+ and 20+ and not 10-19, 20-29, etc... The 10+ category on that site includes every play that went 10+ yards, including 20, 40, and even 90+ yard plays. If you want to know how many 10-19 yard plays, you'd take the 10+ and subtract out the 20+.
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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #37 on: March 14, 2017, 08:55:04 pm »

It breaks down by increments by it is cumulative. Notice how they say 10+ and 20+ and not 10-19, 20-29, etc... The 10+ category on that site includes every play that went 10+ yards, including 20, 40, and even 90+ yard plays. If you want to know how many 10-19 yard plays, you'd take the 10+ and subtract out the 20+.

I'm not sure that is right.
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bennyl08

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2017, 09:47:47 pm »

I'm not sure that is right.

Try and find a single team that listed that gave up more 80 yard runs than 70. I checked many of the teams and there does not exist a single one that doesn't have a monotonically decreasing value for plays given up. Further, that is the logical and exact definition for the statistics given. 10+ is by definition 10 and anything higher.

For example, here's a case study.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort01.html

Check out the aggies 2015 numbers. Exactly one 70+ play, one 80+ play, and one 90+ play.

Now, let's check out their offensive numbers from 2015.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/245/year/2015

As for longest plays, Josh Reynolds has a 95 yard play and nobody else on the team had an offensive play over 66 yards. Meaning that either, Reynolds had exactly one 70-79 yard play, one 80-89 yard play, and one 90-99 yard play, or 95 yards is technically both 70+, 80+, and 90+.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/559694/year/2015/josh-reynolds

If we check out his game log from that year, we do in fact see that in none of his games did he have a long play of 70 or 80 yards, and just the 95 yard play. Now, from that alone, we can't say whether or not he didn't simply also have plays of 70 and 80 yards in that game as well. However, as it turns out, he had 3 catches for 105 yards. Thus, it is impossible for him to have accumulated those yards.

This leaves us with either espn's stats are entirely missing a 70 and an 80 yard play from that season on offense, that cbstats are completely making those plays up, or that 70+ means plays of 70 yards or anything longer, including plays of 80 or 90+.

Of note is that NFL.com also employs the same strategy on it's stats. Any play of 40+ yards also gets counted as a play of 20+ yards as 40 is indeed a + of 20. Similarly, sacks are almost always counted again as a tackle for loss. Very rarely do you ever see a site differentiate the two.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #39 on: March 15, 2017, 05:36:37 am »

Try and find a single team that listed that gave up more 80 yard runs than 70. I checked many of the teams and there does not exist a single one that doesn't have a monotonically decreasing value for plays given up. Further, that is the logical and exact definition for the statistics given. 10+ is by definition 10 and anything higher.

For example, here's a case study.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort01.html

Check out the aggies 2015 numbers. Exactly one 70+ play, one 80+ play, and one 90+ play.

Now, let's check out their offensive numbers from 2015.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/245/year/2015

As for longest plays, Josh Reynolds has a 95 yard play and nobody else on the team had an offensive play over 66 yards. Meaning that either, Reynolds had exactly one 70-79 yard play, one 80-89 yard play, and one 90-99 yard play, or 95 yards is technically both 70+, 80+, and 90+.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/559694/year/2015/josh-reynolds

If we check out his game log from that year, we do in fact see that in none of his games did he have a long play of 70 or 80 yards, and just the 95 yard play. Now, from that alone, we can't say whether or not he didn't simply also have plays of 70 and 80 yards in that game as well. However, as it turns out, he had 3 catches for 105 yards. Thus, it is impossible for him to have accumulated those yards.

This leaves us with either espn's stats are entirely missing a 70 and an 80 yard play from that season on offense, that cbstats are completely making those plays up, or that 70+ means plays of 70 yards or anything longer, including plays of 80 or 90+.

Of note is that NFL.com also employs the same strategy on it's stats. Any play of 40+ yards also gets counted as a play of 20+ yards as 40 is indeed a + of 20. Similarly, sacks are almost always counted again as a tackle for loss. Very rarely do you ever see a site differentiate the two.

Maybe you are right, I need to look into this. If you are right, it isn't as clear as it perhaps should be.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: If you had to pick which defense (2014-2016) matches these numbers...
« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2017, 07:10:52 am »

Also, I've used cfb stats but I forget what they have from time to time and forget to use them.
using that site it shows

2013: 185 vs 814 total snaps for 22.7% of snaps being 10+ yards for rushing and passing plays. 15.4/game
2014: 162 vs 862 total snaps for 19.7% of snaps 12.46/game
2015: 188 vs 839 total snaps for 22.4% of snaps 14.46/game
2016: 183 vs 822 total snaps for 22.3% of snaps 14.07/game

2010: 165 vs 862 total snaps for 19.1% of snaps 12.7/game* comparing to best defense under Petrino.

The percentage of snaps varies very little from one defense to the next with a range of just over 3% difference. However, using cfbstat data, the total per game varies by 2-3 per game for our defense. Now, keep in mind, I don't know how they are counting those plays and I think they may be including penalties or something. I'm only using their passing and running plays, but Musk calculated 167 for 2016 compared to their 183 (even adding in the 9 from alcorn is only 176). I counted 121 for Bama compared to their 147.

Yes, after going back and adding in every "big play over 10 yards" for the Alcorn game I also came up with 9 plays from that game that should have brought the total to 176 as opposed to their stated 183 on that site. I'm not counting plays/yardage by penalty either. I wonder if they are counting big plays in the kicking game?

In any case, while it seems that the yardage allowed per big play is important, what seems to be more important is the number of times that the yardage is allowed (I know, "duh" right?). But to completely understand the data there are other factors involved that might require a deeper examination like, when these plays occurred? Were half of them allowed in the late 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of a game when the game was already under control with the outcome pretty certain, when heavy substitution by a team might have played a role? That might apply more to a team like Alabama than to a team like Arkansas who was plagued by big plays throughout the season.

Bottom line as I said earlier above, if all teams allow an average of 24 yards per big play(an example only) then you need to keep the number of times that this occurs during a game to under 10 times in order to give your team the best chance to win. In 2016 we averaged giving up 13.5 big plays per game for an average of 309.2 yards p/gm. That's an average of 22.8 yards per big play and 1 big play in every 4.7 defensive plays.

Our defense, whether running a 3-4 or a 4-3 or a 5-2 or whatever will have made huge strides this year if they can just keep the number of big plays allowed per game to under 10 per game. That will help change a number of outcomes over the course of a season.
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