Week 1 Spreads released

[WILL CLINTON]

It was in the USA Today.  It was not a joke.  I don't think amy book makers will take much action on that line. 

This is one of a very few times id bet my whole bankroll if i could get a bookie to take this....

A few years ago i had a thread at therx.com and went 65% approx for a whole season but havent done any serious betting since...I'll try to post my picks this year and give a rundown of my betting pattern so you can at least get some sort of idea....

Big picks only come along maybe 2 times a year and the best handicapers in the business rarely have a consistent streak picking above 70% winners, so don't get discouraged if you have a bad week or two, but on the flip side, don't get too cocky if you have a big week or two.  My best season, the one at therx.com, i had a couple of 1 or 2 win vs. 5-7 losses, 25-30%, -$700 weeks mixed in with a couple of 100%, 5 or 6 win $800-$1000 weeks, mixed in with a couple of break even weeks.  

My routine involves every Sunday/Monday I get a paper and tear out the lines.  I usually immediately see about 10-12 games that stand out to me.  I take those games and see if there are some decent trends (remember my 1st post about trends though) or information that is useful. Sometimes I find some info/trends that spark my interest about games outside of the 10-12 that jumped out at me, and sometimes I realize that some of my 10-12 aren't good bets.  You have to walk a thin line between trusting your gut, and being willing to walk away from bad bets.  By Thursday I've narrowed it down to about 4-6 games that I could bet on, and usually end up betting on 3 or 4.  Sometimes I get on a game or two earlier in the week due to the line shift that usually occurs later in the week due to betting by the public.  Now, and this is where you have to be careful, when I'm on a streak and hit maybe my first 2 games on Saturday, I may pull out another one or 2 that I had picked out and get on 'em, if I win those 2 and maybe 1 more of my original 4, I may pick another one, or get on an NFL game, but I never bet more than 1 or 2 NFL games a week if that many. 

I typically try to stay away from parlays unless I have some unbelieveable locks.  The biggest parlay I've won is a 4 teamer, but I've lost SEVERAL others.  You definitely don't want to get in a place where you are betting $20 parlays to make up for losing 7 straight.  You can't play catchup with parlays...remember that

As you can see, I am a little more serious than the regular guy just trying to put a little action into an otherwise boring game that you have no real interest in.  I don't do it for the money, but for me it's just about beating the oddsmakers.  Seeing if I am better at picking games than the people who get paid to do it.  So far, I think they are proving their worth....

Good luck to everyone, may we all be on the winning side every week....a running thread for the year, or a new one every week won't be a bad idea until we can convince the powers that be that a forum is needed.......

[SPAL]

Ill point you guys again to my link http://sportsbookreview.com

I personally used Bodog for years.  Then I got completely fed up with 2 things.  1) They dont release college football lines until 48 hours before (then you can't get the good line cause its already moved) and 2) They ALWAYS add an extra point to favorites. 

People have a hard time taking dogs.  The public in general is always on Favs.  If you have the balls to bet dogs, go to Bodog.  You get an extra point, but you have to wait for the line until before the game.

I personally use bookmaker.com and betjamaica.com

Easily the best.

im gonna switch to one of the above because i trust your take on it...ill figureout which is best and deposit into it.

[SPAL]

I would really like to have a betting forum.  I am one of the rookies a lot of you guys are talking about and am planning on betting this season for the first time.  Being a college student my roll is going to be $100, I figure betting $5 a game.  I am really doing this more for the entertainment factor rather than a money maker.  Making money would be a nice side effect though.

We usually have a thread going weekly and most of the spreads are posted there...just ask one of us if u have any questions. A lot of people end up posting their picks and their opnions on it, but you need to have done a little homework before you bet a game. I think it was mentioned already, but the big ESPn games and CBS games arent the best to bet...find a Troy vs FIU or something....you will win more betting those than betting ohio st michigan

[OahuHawg]

just a couple that stand out to me right now:
UConn -4 over Ohio
Notre Dame -13 over Nevada
Toledo +11 over Purdue
Baylor +1 over Wake Forest
UL Monroe +41 over Texas (Texas is known for starting out slow an UL Monroe is a ground team that can hold onto possesion for a long time, don't think UT will have enough time to beat em by 41)

[HogFan82]

For the people that use the online sportsbooks.... How do you deposit money into an online gaming account?  Have you ever had any problems with withdrawals?

[zark]

If you can't bet these then don't bet opening weekend....or the rest of the season for that matter.

1.  Home Teams
2.  Experienced QB's
3.  Experience across the D and O.
4.  The longer distance a team has to travel, the sheeter they play.
5.  The coach, the coach, the coach.

The best bets opening weekend are inflated "name" teams versus teams nobody expects to do well.  There are usually "fat" lines the first two opening weeks.  Choose wisely, and load up.  It's the easiest money all year.

[ChicoHog]

Today's USA Today had the UF line -63.  maybe the -73 was a typo.  It was mentioned on the Van Pelt show today on ESPN about the 73 point spread as possibly the biggest line ever.   

[WILL CLINTON]

The following teams are +10000 to win the FBS NC"
South Carolina
Michigan
Illinois
BYU
Arkansas
UCLA
Maryland
South Florida
Rutgers
Auburn
Arizona St
Utah
Oregon St
Kansas
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Boston College
clemson
NC St
Cincy
Iowa
UNC
Pitt
Texas Tech
Mizzou
TCU
'Zona
Boise St
Tenn
Michigan ST
   
The following are +7500   
Miami FL     
Oregon
Florida St
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Nebraska

The following teams are +5000
California
Field (Any team not named specifically here)


And here's the rest
Oklahoma St  +4000     
Virginia Tech  +3000     
Penn St  +3000     
Notre Dame  +2500     
Alabama  +2500     
LSU  +2500     
Mississippi  +1500     
Ohio St  +1200     
USC  +700     
Oklahoma  +600     
Texas  +400     
Florida  +200 

I may get on Florida, they are almost assured of a NC win. 

[_Collin1]

For the people that use the online sportsbooks.... How do you deposit money into an online gaming account?  Have you ever had any problems with withdrawals?

So many replies to get to tonight.  I am a full time Software Consultant, full time dad, and night owl handicapper

HogFan82, it depends on what site you are playing on.  Betus.com and Bodog.com allow you to directly deposit from Credit Cards and Debit Cards.  Sounds easy enough right?  Trust an experienced guy....  dont use them.  First off, those two sites specifically have some of the worst odds, especially bodog.  (Example, lets say alabama is -6 favorite.  If you want that line they will have it listed at -140.  That means you have to bet $14 to make $10.  Most other sites are -110, meaning $11 to make $10)  Doesnt sound like much if you are a small better right?  Wrong.  If you got 7-6 on the day, you did really well but you basically broke even.  Bodog is THE WORST... always making lines -125 or -140 instead of the standard -110.

If you go to the sites I use (and are A+ ratings on sportsbookreview.com, betjamaica.com or bookmaker.com) you can also deposit via credit card, you just wont get a bonus.  BONUS you say?!  Yes.  You can FedEx the money, Western Union the money, or go to Walgreens or a Check Cashing place and but an AllAccess Visa card.  When you use those you get a 20% bonus on your deposit.  Dump in $500 they give you $100 just for first time players (10% bonus on reloads).

[_Collin1]

If you can't bet these then don't bet opening weekend....or the rest of the season for that matter.

1.  Home Teams
2.  Experienced QB's
3.  Experience across the D and O.
4.  The longer distance a team has to travel, the sheeter they play.
5.  The coach, the coach, the coach.

The best bets opening weekend are inflated "name" teams versus teams nobody expects to do well.  There are usually "fat" lines the first two opening weeks.  Choose wisely, and load up.  It's the easiest money all year.

Perfect example of #4 last year was Cal going to Maryland.  Everyone and there mother was on Cal.  Cal was a far superior team last year.  Guess who not only covered but won?  Maryland.  Why?  They scheduled the game at Noon EST.  Thats 9am to those Cal boys.

I can't point you to a East coast trip from a west coast team... but I can point out that ALOT of Big Ten schools have visitors from other conferences in the first couple of weeks.. look there.

[_Collin1]

just a couple that stand out to me right now:
UConn -4 over Ohio
Notre Dame -13 over Nevada
Toledo +11 over Purdue
Baylor +1 over Wake Forest
UL Monroe +41 over Texas (Texas is known for starting out slow an UL Monroe is a ground team that can hold onto possesion for a long time, don't think UT will have enough time to beat em by 41)

Take it as you want... but here is my advice:

*Ohio is a BIG lean on UConn for me right now.  UConn lost alot and Ohio returns alot of skill positions.  Its also an Ohio home game.  If that doesnt mean much to you... this might.  The line started at -5 and now sits at -3.5 for UConn.  83% of the total money is on UConn.  Can you explain to me why 83% is on one team and the point spread is moving in their favor?  Cause its a rat and Vegas is going to clean house.  Ohio is the pick.

*ND v Nevada is a toss up.

*Purdue is going to be terrible this year.  Get the best line you can for Toledo cause that spread is heading to -10 or -9.5...  and that might not be playable.  Remember first weeks... bet against teams with New head coaches and QB.... ding ding ding... Purdue.

*Im quickly turning into a Baylor homer myself this year... but I dont have enough info yet to make a prediction.  I WANT to say they win by 14... but its a road game and it is Baylor.

*I like the ULM prediction... the money in Vegas is leading on to a ULM cover also.  I am just scared about some comments that Mack Brown made about "If I run up the score on everyone on my schedule, maybe Texas will be the pick in a tiebreaker in the future".  Brown and Texas in general is pissed about last year....  I think some teams are going to PAY.

[_Collin1]

Without giving too much away yet since I need more bets in the Sportsbook to get a read... I am already on W Mich, Tulane, and I am about to pull the trigger on La Tech.

You guys want to see a dumpster fire?  Wait until an expereinced no fear La Tech team rolls into Jordan O Hare and makes it a 7 point ball game.

[_Collin1]

Florida  +200 

I may get on Florida, they are almost assured of a NC win. 

See if you can't Parlay that with the Pats winning the AFC East... big money, no whammies

[WILL CLINTON]

Without giving too much away yet since I need more bets in the Sportsbook to get a read... I am already on W Mich, Tulane, and I am about to pull the trigger on La Tech.

You guys want to see a dumpster fire?  Wait until an expereinced no fear La Tech team rolls into Jordan O Hare and makes it a 7 point ball game.

I'm with you on La Tech vs. Auburn, but I'm staying away from the Tulane game.  Tulsa is breaking in a new QB, RB, and offense coordinator.  There are a few others, but no huge plays for me (unless the now infamous -73 is available somewhere... ).  May be a slow opening weeking for $$$, but a good chance to do come capping and see where a couple of your borderline teams are. 

*ND v Nevada is a toss up.

I saw Nevada at i think +14.5 last night, it's a nevada lean over 14, for me at least.  They have a seasoned QB who rushed for over 1000 and passed for over 2800 with 37 TD's, and only 5 rushing from the magic level of 20/20 that won Tebow the Heisman. They COULD surprise the Irish and seal Charlie Weiss' fate almost immediately.  Their RB is no slouch either (1500 yds, 15 td's last year as a JR) so it will be easy to keep that ND offense off the field longer.

Another one I am on because of a thread on therx.com is Minnesota +7 vs Syracuse.  Going along with your thought process BigC, Minnesota has a 3 yr HC, with a top notch QB, with 17 returning starters, who, and many people forget this, started the year last year 7-1.  Syracuse is has a NEW HC, NEW QB (who has been playing basketball for the past 4 years), and the HC has dismissed 16 players off last years team.  Including one of their starting LB.  I'm liking this one a lot...

[zark]

This is one of a very few times id bet my whole bankroll if i could get a bookie to take this....

A few years ago i had a thread at therx.com and went 65% approx for a whole season but havent done any serious betting since...I'll try to post my picks this year and give a rundown of my betting pattern so you can at least get some sort of idea....

Big picks only come along maybe 2 times a year and the best handicapers in the business rarely have a consistent streak picking above 70% winners, so don't get discouraged if you have a bad week or two, but on the flip side, don't get too cocky if you have a big week or two.  My best season, the one at therx.com, i had a couple of 1 or 2 win vs. 5-7 losses, 25-30%, -$700 weeks mixed in with a couple of 100%, 5 or 6 win $800-$1000 weeks, mixed in with a couple of break even weeks. 

My routine involves every Sunday/Monday I get a paper and tear out the lines.  I usually immediately see about 10-12 games that stand out to me.  I take those games and see if there are some decent trends (remember my 1st post about trends though) or information that is useful. Sometimes I find some info/trends that spark my interest about games outside of the 10-12 that jumped out at me, and sometimes I realize that some of my 10-12 aren't good bets.  You have to walk a thin line between trusting your gut, and being willing to walk away from bad bets.  By Thursday I've narrowed it down to about 4-6 games that I could bet on, and usually end up betting on 3 or 4.  Sometimes I get on a game or two earlier in the week due to the line shift that usually occurs later in the week due to betting by the public.  Now, and this is where you have to be careful, when I'm on a streak and hit maybe my first 2 games on Saturday, I may pull out another one or 2 that I had picked out and get on 'em, if I win those 2 and maybe 1 more of my original 4, I may pick another one, or get on an NFL game, but I never bet more than 1 or 2 NFL games a week if that many.

I typically try to stay away from parlays unless I have some unbelieveable locks.  The biggest parlay I've won is a 4 teamer, but I've lost SEVERAL others.  You definitely don't want to get in a place where you are betting $20 parlays to make up for losing 7 straight.  You can't play catchup with parlays...remember that

As you can see, I am a little more serious than the regular guy just trying to put a little action into an otherwise boring game that you have no real interest in.  I don't do it for the money, but for me it's just about beating the oddsmakers.  Seeing if I am better at picking games than the people who get paid to do it.  So far, I think they are proving their worth....

Good luck to everyone, may we all be on the winning side every week....a running thread for the year, or a new one every week won't be a bad idea until we can convince the powers that be that a forum is needed.......

This pretty much sums up my weekly process as well.  Pick out the lines as early as you can, then let them "mature" the rest of the week as you dig deeper and cross-reference the games to your betting criteria.

I like to place my bets "with local bookie" Saturday morning, usually 1 to 4 early games, sometimes none depending.  Track these games and then adjust for the mid day and later games to bet on.  Always weight your bets as if your hot you can put some extra's on the card and if you're not you can cull them. 

Some weeks I'll lose early and this limits the later games.  Other weeks I win and up the later bets.  When you're losing, this limits the bad weeks, when winning, it maximizes the good weeks.

You can almost guarantee throughout the college season you will have great weeks 1/3rd of the time, bad weeks 1/3rd of the time and break evenish weeks 1/3rd of the time.  The key is to win big when your winning and limit your losses when your losings.

If your expecting anything better, then you will be highly disappointed.

[HognotinMemphis]

The best bet I've heard in my lifetime I heard this week here - at the LV Hilton sports book, they have the O/U on Ole Miss season wins at 9 1/2. I'd take the under for $10,000. No way OM wins 10 games.

[2FNFST4U]

Who ever is posted that made a joke... unless a local bookie made that bet.  IF they did, take Charelston Southern and bet the house.  Those starters are out at halftime.  You are looking at a 56-0 or maybe 63-0 win at best.

Miami beat Charleston Southern 52-7 last year in the 1st game with a true FR at QB. Unless Meyer pulls the starters in the 1st quarter 75 points is very likely.

[ChicoHog]

The best bet I've heard in my lifetime I heard this week here - at the LV Hilton sports book, they have the O/U on Ole Miss season wins at 9 1/2. I'd take the under for $10,000. No way OM wins 10 games.

Does that count bowl games?  Or even conference championship games (not that Ole Miss will get there)?  I can possibly seeing them going 9-3 regular season and then beating someone in the Peach Bowl or something like that but I think that is best case scenario.

[_Collin1]

The best bet I've heard in my lifetime I heard this week here - at the LV Hilton sports book, they have the O/U on Ole Miss season wins at 9 1/2. I'd take the under for $10,000. No way OM wins 10 games.

Too bad Vegas and internet sportsbooks dont let you put a full blown amount on prop bets.

[_Collin1]

Miami beat Charleston Southern 52-7 last year in the 1st game with a true FR at QB. Unless Meyer pulls the starters in the 1st quarter 75 points is very likely.

75 points may be likely, but allowing even a field goal means they dont cover.

First off, the starters will be out at halftime.  Secondly, Florida will only show 10% of its playbook.  I havent seen anyone taking bets on this game so the point is moot, but trust me Florida is not covering 73.

[_Collin1]

Another one I am on because of a thread on therx.com is Minnesota +7 vs Syracuse.  Going along with your thought process BigC, Minnesota has a 3 yr HC, with a top notch QB, with 17 returning starters, who, and many people forget this, started the year last year 7-1.  Syracuse is has a NEW HC, NEW QB (who has been playing basketball for the past 4 years), and the HC has dismissed 16 players off last years team.  Including one of their starting LB.  I'm liking this one a lot...

Will, Minnesota is certainly on the radar and this Syracuse game should be an easy cover.  I can get it at 6.5 right now and I should.

86% of the money in Vegas is on Minnesota and the line started at 3.5 and has moved to 6.5. Looks like a good cover.

[Biggus Piggus]

I still think we need an entire forum to discuss point spreads, betting, etc.  I will be heavily involved in most of these discussions for the entire year.  Also...  if anyone is interested in a College Football Pool for big bucks, let me know.

To the point spreads....

Oklahoma St comes out -4.5 to UGA.  Richt is 30-4 on the Road.  If you were leaning UGA get them NOW.  I guarantee that point spread will work itself back to 3 by kickoff.  Remember this about teams early guys, experience covers spreads.  Look for returning QB's, coaches, and starters (over 14 is great). 

Cowherd mentioned it this morning that Illinois -5 is a steal and to get it now.  He may be right, but I have a hard time taking Illinois when they are 0-7 ATS the past 9 years at a neutral site.  I do believe Mizzou is going to be the dormat of all BCS teams this year.

Nevada +12 at Notre Dame.  ND will be good this year... but Nevada is no slouch.

I suggest using the General Sports forum for this.  It's pretty lightly used otherwise.

[HognotinMemphis]

Does that count bowl games?  Or even conference championship games (not that Ole Miss will get there)?  I can possibly seeing them going 9-3 regular season and then beating someone in the Peach Bowl or something like that but I think that is best case scenario.

Good question. I don't know. I assumed it is just for regular season but I shouldn't assume that.

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

Sorry I got in on this a bit late.  I have been playing baseball still although I cut my baseball wagering down to almost nothing when football starts.  Gives me something to stay sharp on.

Many very very good points made by all posters in this thread. By all means set limits and set your units accordingly.

I mostly play straight bets and the occasional 2-3 team parlay.  This is either if I see several very very strong plays.  Plays i would consider all being 8 unit bets or better if single wagers.  Also if I am simply rolling early for the week.

For you guys that want the 6-1 payout on a three teamer learn to hedge.  Easiest way is to find a late game that you really feel good about.  For instance.  if you have a 100.00 3 team parlay and hit the first two; turn around and bet 200.00 head up on the opposite team in the late game.  Then at best you only win 400.00 if your parlay does come in.  If it doesn't you lose your 100.00 on the parlay, but win 200.00 in the late game.  Worst case you pocketed a hundo.  I used to say to heck with it, but amazing how many times something weird will happen and screw you in that final game.

Now for the college student talking about 100.00 bank roll.  Get two or three other buddies to put in 100.00.  Everyone get together and show a list of 3 or 4 large parlays.  8 to 12 teams.    Compare lists narrow it down to 4 parlays and withdraw 5.00 for each of the parlays from your joint account.  Odds are you don't hit one, but even if you come down to the last few games it makes for great fun.  if for instance you pick a 5.00 10 teamer you will probably pocket several thousand dollars.  reload your account and split the rest.  I have a buddy I do that with.  He isn't as serious as I am and doesn't want to bet large amounts.  We hit a 5 dollar 10 teamer last year and it paid us 3,600.

Also for beginners.  Do not place any large bets for a friend on your account without having money in hand first.  Even then make certain they know it could be 10-14 days before they get their money if they win.  I generally do very well betting games, but everyone including myself would be lying if we didn't all admit sometimes it's an awful week.  if you make a large bet for someone and they win.  You lose every game.  You still have their winning in your account.  Do not bet with their money.  Following tips are best of all that I can offer.

never gamble scared(if you are scared you either don't have the cash or don't believe you have the winner).  Never bet significant money if your heart is involved(that one is tough for me sometimes).  I don't suggest pick services even though I am planning to start one.    I only tell you guys that because you are my fellow Razorback fans.  Otherwise I hope to have many clients when i get this thing running.  Those are a few tidbits.  I don't offer them because I think I am all knowing.  I said I generally do very well.  That is true now, but it wasn't always.  I had to learn the hard way on all this stuff.  I was up and down more than a yo yo when I was gambling as a youngster.

Good luck and remember there is simply no suck thing as a lock.

Hogfanintx out

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

and yes I would love a wagering forum

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

75 points may be likely, but allowing even a field goal means they dont cover.

First off, the starters will be out at halftime.  Secondly, Florida will only show 10% of its playbook.  I havent seen anyone taking bets on this game so the point is moot, but trust me Florida is not covering 73.

If that's legit I will take c of charls plus the points.  I mean do they not even have 11 players or what?

[Boardon Hamsay]

Urban Meyer covered every spread last year, aside from Ole Miss.  I made alot of money off them last year.  Expect the same this year.

Same here.  Florida and OU did well for me as usual.  And as usual, OU did very well for me in losing another BCS game

[Boardon Hamsay]

Great Post buddy.  Let me add on to the points.

1) Make ONE deposit a year.  If you get into a habit of depositing multiple time, you are dead meat.  NEVER PLAN on getting that money back... then you will still be able to pay bills and your family will never notice.  You may say "well gee its been a bad month and I just can get 100, 500, or a thousand in my yearly deposit.  This may or may not help, but here is what I do...  I get paid bi-monthly.  Certain part goes to bills, certain part goes to wife for groceries and stuff for the kids, another part goes to savings, and then a small amount is sent to a secret "slush fund".  It may be 10 bucks a paycheck, maybe 50.  Your yearly deposit is then anywhere from $140 to $1200.

2.  Great percentages posted there by Sir Pig.  Lots of betters use "units".  1 unit to you might be one dollar, might mean $10 to me.  Make your own defined units.  Mine is almost exactly like what Sir Pig talks about.  My 1 unit is 1% of my roll.  Thats called a SMALL PLAY for me.  3 to 5 Units (3-5%) is a Regular play for me.  My bet of the month or bet of the year happens very infrequently but its anywhere from 10-20%.  I usually got about .500 on small plays, .600 on Regular Plays, and about .800 on Bet of the Month/Year. 

3.  No more to add to 3, other than never bet more than 20% to 25% of your total roll each week.

Nice addition.  The only thing I can add (for me at least) is, I never bet based on emotion.

[SPAL]

just to bump this thread...

Ive got 2 units on NEw York Jets +3 at the ravens in nflx

[SPAL]

just to bump this thread...

Ive got 2 units on NEw York Jets +3 at the ravens in nflx

awesome start

[mclyte]

Nice cover

[BigSexyHog]

I need a little help here.  I have always used a local book, but live in a new area so i will be going online for the first time.  What sites do ya'll use?

thanks

I have used betus.com the past few years.  MIght try another one this year.

[fearless_leader]

THat 9.5 on Ole Miss was specifically on regular season wins.


Guys, they're going to go 4-0 in ooc and have a helluva chance to win 5 conference games.

9.5 looked about right to me.  Bama and LSU at home - all road games (@USC, @VU, @AU, @MSU) will be games they OUGHT to win.  Nutt with a talented QB (albeit one he didn't recruit) is a dangerous guy with the kids OM has on the edges and in the backfield.


Oregon at 7.5 was a much easier over bet.  Oregon will win 10 or more.

[fearless_leader]

And for my thoughts on these subjects, I might suggest an account at accuscore.com

Don't spend your time wagering good money (as in big bets) on the big conference teams.  All the books will have people smarter than you or I doing the background work on the bigger conferences (even like MWC) and those lines will be awfully good.


I've made more money on Troy State and Boise State than anything.

Don't dally with parlay's - they just don't pay nearly as much as they should, mathematically.


Futures bets are the fun ones.  Got Alabama at 25/1 to win the national title.  Telling you, Alabama is going to be frickin' great by November.  They might average less than 10 ppg allowed and < like 250 yards per game.  Their linebackers are the best I've seen in college in years.

[HognotinMemphis]

THat 9.5 on Ole Miss was specifically on regular season wins.


Guys, they're going to go 4-0 in ooc and have a helluva chance to win 5 conference games.

9.5 looked about right to me.  Bama and LSU at home - all road games (@USC, @VU, @AU, @MSU) will be games they OUGHT to win.  Nutt with a talented QB (albeit one he didn't recruit) is a dangerous guy with the kids OM has on the edges and in the backfield.


Oregon at 7.5 was a much easier over bet.  Oregon will win 10 or more.

You say that Ole Miss is going to go 4-0 in OOC and has a helluva chance to win 5 conference games. That's 9 wins. If O/U is 9.5, then that's an easy under bet, right? They are not going to go 6-2 in SEC. And if they should lose to Memphis in the opener, you can be certain they are not going to win 10 games.

I ask again, is there any way to place that bet without having to go to the casino in person?

[HognotinMemphis]

Too bad Vegas and internet sportsbooks dont let you put a full blown amount on prop bets.

What do you mean by this? I don't know what a prop bet is either.

[SPAL]

a prop bet is nothing more than a side bet so to speak. Its short for proposition and you bet on the outcome of events such as who will win the super bowl or who will win the MNC etc. You can slo bet on small things during games like what the next play will be, who will score first, who will have more turnovers..etc. You can do it at any sportbook without having to go to a casino.

[OnYourToes]

Some games I'm looking at for the first week:

Navy (+22.5) v Ohio State
Navy is a runnig machine.  They eat up clock.  Getting a Ohio St D that lost a lot of players in the draft, they are young and might not be ready for this game.
Ohio St will score, Pryor will run and throw and be amazing but I see this game ending up
Navy 14 - Ohio St 35

Oklahoma St (-6) v Georgia
OSU is loaded on O, Georgia is unproven on O. I think the Ds will cancel each other out and OSU starts its run for the Big XII South by a score of
OSU 40 - Georgia 28

Memphis (+17) v Ole Miss
I couldn't stay away from this game.  We are all far too familiar with HDN's record against the spread and this is too wide for me to not play.  Ole Miss will try and not lose this game, by doing so they just might win, but not as big as Rebel nation is wanting.
Memphis 24 - Ole Miss 34

Baylor (+1.5) v Wake Forrest
Baylor is kind of like us, a lot of potential, had a look at a few upsets last year but fell short, BIG upside, ended the year well. Their QB and that system is scary.  I would not want to play them.  Wake is a team that likes to keep it close and beat you in the 4th quarter.  With Baylor's athletic QB, Wake may be dog tired by halftime.  The line is so close that I see Baylor winning outright.
Baylor 28 - Wake 17


For those new to betting, these are my thoughts when looking at games.  I have been fairly sucessful in years past and bet purely for the fun of it.  It is just another way for me to enjoy the greatest sport on earth.

[Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson]

I have not looked at week 1 too much yet.  Would just make the time go by slower..Just at a quick glance however I am considering taking byu +21 1/2 at OU.  Again too early for me to decide.   Will really start looking next Monday

[fearless_leader]

HiM - I guess what I really mean, with regards to 9.5 - is that I can easily imagine scenarios where OM wins 9 or 10.  I can't look at their schedule and easily imagine scenarios where they win 8 or 11.

I'm just saying - they can lose to LSU and Alabama and still hit the over.


Arkansas was paying 300/1 to win the national title.  I didn't touch it.

[WILL CLINTON]

Some games I'm looking at for the first week:

Navy (+22.5) v Ohio State
Navy is a runnig machine.  They eat up clock.  Getting a Ohio St D that lost a lot of players in the draft, they are young and might not be ready for this game.
Ohio St will score, Pryor will run and throw and be amazing but I see this game ending up
Navy 14 - Ohio St 35

Oklahoma St (-6) v Georgia
OSU is loaded on O, Georgia is unproven on O. I think the Ds will cancel each other out and OSU starts its run for the Big XII South by a score of
OSU 40 - Georgia 28

Memphis (+17) v Ole Miss
I couldn't stay away from this game.  We are all far too familiar with HDN's record against the spread and this is too wide for me to not play.  Ole Miss will try and not lose this game, by doing so they just might win, but not as big as Rebel nation is wanting.
Memphis 24 - Ole Miss 34

Baylor (+1.5) v Wake Forrest
Baylor is kind of like us, a lot of potential, had a look at a few upsets last year but fell short, BIG upside, ended the year well. Their QB and that system is scary.  I would not want to play them.  Wake is a team that likes to keep it close and beat you in the 4th quarter.  With Baylor's athletic QB, Wake may be dog tired by halftime.  The line is so close that I see Baylor winning outright.
Baylor 28 - Wake 17


For those new to betting, these are my thoughts when looking at games.  I have been fairly sucessful in years past and bet purely for the fun of it.  It is just another way for me to enjoy the greatest sport on earth.

I have a couple of side bets on the other side of Georgia with guys at work.  I'm not making that part of my first weekend pics, because I'm mostly just representing the SEC if I lose and if I win, I'll be an 'effin genius.

I can't really go with Oklahoma or BYU.  It could just as easily be a 35 point game as it could a 14 pt game.  Ohio St may be out to prove something and put a hurtin on Navy.  Then again, I'm only on 2 games for the first weekend unless there are some major line moves. 

Nevada +14, and Minnesota +7.  I'm liking Minnesota more every day. 

See if you can't Parlay that with the Pats winning the AFC East... big money, no whammies

The best I can get on the Pats is -600, and that ain't never a good bet.  If you don't mind, where do you get your info on the % of money on a certain team  and line movement, I can't find anything on google...

[SPAL]

There are a couple im watching right now...

Boise -5 at home to Oregon...Boise has an amazing ATS  at home.

And Troy -6.5 at Bowling Green. I fully expect Troy to win this one going away.

Just watching them, havent made any plays yet.

[SPAL]

Hey will, where are u getting MInny as 7 point dogs?...im seeing them as 6 point favs on the road against Cuse....Regardless, i like that pic....Cuse is horrible. the spread should be 17 IMO

[SPAL]

got 3 plays tonight....

after cashing on the Jets cover at Baltimore, I turn my focus to baseball tonight where I have a few plays i think are solid....2 units a piece on the moneyline with

Boston -137 over CWS
SF Giants -142 over the Dbacks
Minny -160 over the Orioles.

[_Collin1]

What do you mean by this? I don't know what a prop bet is either.

Too add on what Sir said...  Betting on a total season WINS number is a prop bet.  A problem with prop bets is you cant bet the full max.  For example, If MGM Grand has a limit of $10 Million on a single bet (like Georgia +6 against OSU) then a prop bet (like OSU total season wins, Kendall Hunter Rushing yards over under 77 for game against Georgia, etc) will only go for about $1000 max in MGM Grand.

At Bodog, you can bet up to 5k on a single game... I think, might be 2k.  Prop bets max are anywhere from $50 to $500.

Real World example...  I put a max bet of $50 on John McCain as the Republican Party Winner for the election a good 12 months before the RNC.  Odds were 4/1 at the time.  I missed my $50 for a year but I made $200.

[_Collin1]

Some games I'm looking at for the first week:

Navy (+22.5) v Ohio State
Navy is a runnig machine.  They eat up clock.  Getting a Ohio St D that lost a lot of players in the draft, they are young and might not be ready for this game.
Ohio St will score, Pryor will run and throw and be amazing but I see this game ending up
Navy 14 - Ohio St 35

Oklahoma St (-6) v Georgia
OSU is loaded on O, Georgia is unproven on O. I think the Ds will cancel each other out and OSU starts its run for the Big XII South by a score of
OSU 40 - Georgia 28

Memphis (+17) v Ole Miss
I couldn't stay away from this game.  We are all far too familiar with HDN's record against the spread and this is too wide for me to not play.  Ole Miss will try and not lose this game, by doing so they just might win, but not as big as Rebel nation is wanting.
Memphis 24 - Ole Miss 34

Baylor (+1.5) v Wake Forrest
Baylor is kind of like us, a lot of potential, had a look at a few upsets last year but fell short, BIG upside, ended the year well. Their QB and that system is scary.  I would not want to play them.  Wake is a team that likes to keep it close and beat you in the 4th quarter.  With Baylor's athletic QB, Wake may be dog tired by halftime.  The line is so close that I see Baylor winning outright.
Baylor 28 - Wake 17


For those new to betting, these are my thoughts when looking at games.  I have been fairly sucessful in years past and bet purely for the fun of it.  It is just another way for me to enjoy the greatest sport on earth.

Good post Toes....

I plan on posting my picks either in this thread or a new thread next week.  I only play 10 games a week, no more, no less.  Im leaning Navy, OSU, Memphis, and Baylor.  OM has only covered Memphis game once in past 6 or 7.  Baylor is the one I am looking at Vegas numbers on.  I have a hunch that Baylor team is going to come in and show an inexperienced Wake team a real show.

[_Collin1]

Not to mention that Wake has ZERO home field advantage.  That place barely seats what Vandy does and barely gets as loud as Kimpel Hall on a Friday afternoon.

[_Collin1]

got 3 plays tonight....

after cashing on the Jets cover at Baltimore, I turn my focus to baseball tonight where I have a few plays i think are solid....2 units a piece on the moneyline with

Boston -137 over CWS
SF Giants -142 over the Dbacks
Minny -160 over the Orioles.

Rox 117 is all I got tonight.

[_Collin1]

HOLY CRAP....  just check the OU. Cubs U 9.5 looks like a complete sure bet tonight.

[WILL CLINTON]

Hey will, where are u getting MInny as 7 point dogs?...im seeing them as 6 point favs on the road against Cuse....Regardless, i like that pic....Cuse is horrible. the spread should be 17 IMO

My bad, I meant Minnesota -7.....