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Week 1 Spreads released

Started by _Collin1, August 10, 2009, 10:23:07 am

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_Collin1

August 10, 2009, 10:23:07 am Last Edit: August 10, 2009, 11:22:03 am by BigC51
I still think we need an entire forum to discuss point spreads, betting, etc.  I will be heavily involved in most of these discussions for the entire year.  Also...  if anyone is interested in a College Football Pool for big bucks, let me know.

To the point spreads....

Oklahoma St comes out -4.5 to UGA.  Richt is 30-4 on the Road.  If you were leaning UGA get them NOW.  I guarantee that point spread will work itself back to 3 by kickoff.  Remember this about teams early guys, experience covers spreads.  Look for returning QB's, coaches, and starters (over 14 is great). 

Cowherd mentioned it this morning that Illinois -5 is a steal and to get it now.  He may be right, but I have a hard time taking Illinois when they are 0-7 ATS the past 9 years at a neutral site.  I do believe Mizzou is going to be the dormat of all BCS teams this year.

Nevada +12 at Notre Dame.  ND will be good this year... but Nevada is no slouch.



Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

SPAL

ahh...its this time of year again. This adds so much more to college football. I had a tremendous year 2 years ago, and did better than average last year. I plan on buckling 2 chin straps this season....i expect to exceed all previous personal milestones. I look forward to the many threads and many discussions on this subject and i too would like a forum for this stuff. We could keep it going year round. Cover baseball and basketball, MMA, and boxing.

Im interested in a pool.

 

athunt

Urban Meyer covered every spread last year, aside from Ole Miss.  I made alot of money off them last year.  Expect the same this year.
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

Suidae

The sites I reference don't have them posted yet.  Do you have a link or web address?  Thanks.

The Great Hambino

I can't wait to do 3-5 ridiculous parlay bets each saturday and sunday. :)

hogfan54

I absolutely love looking at spreads and the lightbulb going off and saying there is no way that team covers. My favorite time of year by far.

_Collin1

Two sports books have released spreads today....

http://www.pinnaclesports.com
http://www.bookmaker.com

Pinnacle was up this morning but just taken down.  Bookmakers is up.  The rest should follow suit in the next 48 hours.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

SPAL

Quote from: hogfan54 on August 10, 2009, 01:24:36 pm
I absolutely love looking at spreads and the lightbulb going off and saying there is no way that team covers. My favorite time of year by far.

USC is always good for one of those. 2 years ago i bet stanford +40 and last year i bet org st at +7 i think. won a good chunk with those. Expect another one this season

Hook 'em Hogs

So guys, I don't gamble, and probably never will, but I've always been curious about +3.5, -4, etc.  So if Arkansas is +4.5, that means that they have to win by more than 4, correct?  Or if Arkansas is -4.5, they can still lose, but they can't lose by more than 4, correct?  You will satisfy years of curiosity if you can help me understand that.

athunt

Quote from: Hook 'em Hogs on August 10, 2009, 07:30:58 pm
So guys, I don't gamble, and probably never will, but I've always been curious about +3.5, -4, etc.  So if Arkansas is +4.5, that means that they have to win by more than 4, correct?  Or if Arkansas is -4.5, they can still lose, but they can't lose by more than 4, correct?  You will satisfy years of curiosity if you can help me understand that.

If Arkansas is picked at +4.5 that means that Arkansas is given a 4.5 point head start when the game starts.  So whoever Arkansas is playing has to win by 5 points or more to "cover" the spread. If they win by 4, then Arkansas "busted" the spread.
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

Hook 'em Hogs

Quote from: athunt on August 10, 2009, 09:12:46 pm
If Arkansas is picked at +4.5 that means that Arkansas is given a 4.5 point head start when the game starts.  So whoever Arkansas is playing has to win by 5 points or more to "cover" the spread. If they win by 4, then Arkansas "busted" the spread.

So then, if they're -4.5, am I correct, they can lose, but they can't lose by more than 4?

Carl Lazlo

Quote from: Hook 'em Hogs on August 10, 2009, 10:28:02 pm
So then, if they're -4.5, am I correct, they can lose, but they can't lose by more than 4?

No. I believe the would have to win by 5 to cover.  If I'm wrong someone correct me.

The Hogfather

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athunt

Quote from: Hook 'em Hogs on August 10, 2009, 10:28:02 pm
So then, if they're -4.5, am I correct, they can lose, but they can't lose by more than 4?

If your a "-" you are the favorite, if you are a "+" you are the under dog.  The number that follows the symbol is the predicted difference between each teams final scores.
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

Hook 'em Hogs

Quote from: athunt on August 10, 2009, 11:07:25 pm
If your a "-" you are the favorite, if you are a "+" you are the under dog.  The number that follows the symbol is the predicted difference between each teams final scores.

Thank you.  I understand now. 

athunt

Quote from: Hook 'em Hogs on August 10, 2009, 11:17:39 pm
Thank you.  I understand now. 

Ill take ur bets the first couple of weeks so u can get used to it.... ;)
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

WILL CLINTON

I am on board with the whole new forum for beting and stuff, been asking for it since i got on here....

I pretty much took last year because of no bookie and moving to a new town and trying to get my savings back up.....


A couple of tips if I may: 

1.  Don't overlook the small schools.  I have won more money off Ball St than I have off any team ever, the non bcs schools give some pretty good action, and can be very profitable if you play them right. 

2.  Don't read too much into trends.  Don't get me wrong, trends comein handy, and won me some money off a TCU vs OU bet a few years back that my bookie laughed at me when I placed it, said I was the only person he heard of taking TCU to cover, but I won and I was the one laughing when I collected...But too much information can start you to second guessing....Believe me, it really doesn't matter how Georgia has done coming off a bye week, after having a 300+ yd passer, returning a punt and Kickoff for TD in the week before the bye after at least 2 inches of Rain in southern Quebec when in a leap year following the Olympic games that are held in some part of Asia.....Information overload.....

I'll try to do better this year as far as finding a bookie and keeping my picks posted.  Hell, if everyone will do that, then we can compare at the end of the year.....
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

athunt

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 10, 2009, 11:24:50 pm


A couple of tips if I may: 

1.  Don't overlook the small schools.  I have won more money off Ball St than I have off any team ever, the non bcs schools give some pretty good action, and can be very profitable if you play them right. 


Ball State KILLED me a few times last year.  Loved to watch Nate Davis though.
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

_Collin1

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 10, 2009, 11:24:50 pm
I am on board with the whole new forum for beting and stuff, been asking for it since i got on here....

I pretty much took last year because of no bookie and moving to a new town and trying to get my savings back up.....


A couple of tips if I may: 

1.  Don't overlook the small schools.  I have won more money off Ball St than I have off any team ever, the non bcs schools give some pretty good action, and can be very profitable if you play them right. 

2.  Don't read too much into trends.  Don't get me wrong, trends comein handy, and won me some money off a TCU vs OU bet a few years back that my bookie laughed at me when I placed it, said I was the only person he heard of taking TCU to cover, but I won and I was the one laughing when I collected...But too much information can start you to second guessing....Believe me, it really doesn't matter how Georgia has done coming off a bye week, after having a 300+ yd passer, returning a punt and Kickoff for TD in the week before the bye after at least 2 inches of Rain in southern Quebec when in a leap year following the Olympic games that are held in some part of Asia.....Information overload.....

I'll try to do better this year as far as finding a bookie and keeping my picks posted.  Hell, if everyone will do that, then we can compare at the end of the year.....

I made my biggest kill on Temple Week 1 last year.  They had 22 returning starters....  they covered the spread and made my year.  There arent any teams with 22 returning starters this year, but it is a KEY ingredient for Week 1.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

SPAL

i always do well with toledo and troy

zark

Quote1.  Don't overlook the small schools.  I have won more money off Ball St than I have off any team ever, the non bcs schools give some pretty good action, and can be very profitable if you play them right.

2.  Don't read too much into trends.  Don't get me wrong, trends comein handy, and won me some money off a TCU vs OU bet a few years back that my bookie laughed at me when I placed it, said I was the only person he heard of taking TCU to cover, but I won and I was the one laughing when I collected...But too much information can start you to second guessing....Believe me, it really doesn't matter how Georgia has done coming off a bye week, after having a 300+ yd passer, returning a punt and Kickoff for TD in the week before the bye after at least 2 inches of Rain in southern Quebec when in a leap year following the Olympic games that are held in some part of Asia.....Information overload.....

Great tips above, I'll add a few:

3.  Know the difference between betting entertainment games and money making games.  I like to bet the big game on TV just for that extra entertainment value, these games are usually handicapped by Vegas the tightest and can be won or lost on one play of the game.  In turn, I'll bet small on these games, the cherries (see 1 above and 4 below) is where money is made.

4.  There is not a sweeter bet than the anti-conformist bet.  There are two of these cherries.  The first cherry is when a smaller yet well coached team with tons of experience play a larger media darling going through coach and rebuilding changes (see one above).   The other cherry is the Cinderella Bust.  An outclassed team that is on good run and has pulled a massive upset goes on the road against a team that is just way more talented across the board.  See Texas Tech last year versus OU and Arkansas any good year under Nutt.  Both these cherries are few and should garner your largest bets.  Your bookie WILL laugh at you in most cases when you place these, that's a good sign though.

5.  Home dogs and/or pissed off teams are good.  Double-digit home dogs win the spread well above 50% of the time.  Double-digit home dogs that are not playing a top ten team hit even higher.  It's tough to lay the money on these but they pay.

6.  Don't get into stats and matchups.  If ESPN is talking about it, you can be assured the line-makers have.  The line-makers have already did all this research for you, hence the line.  Use this time to find different angles that make the line look "off".  Tips 1 and 4 are a good start.

7.  Don't be afraid of increasing your standard bet on "gut" feelings.  The more you do this the better you can judge your "gut" instincts.

8.  "I would bet team A if the line was X instead of X +/- 1 or 2 points."  This quote is for suckers.  Never say it and if you hear someone else say it, ask for their picks and fade 'em all. 

The Phoenix

Where do you guys place your bets?  Online services?  Local bookies?  How do you find a bookie? 

hogfan064

Quote from: BigC51 on August 10, 2009, 10:23:07 am


Cowherd mentioned it this morning that Illinois -5 is a steal and to get it now.  He may be right, but I have a hard time taking Illinois when they are 0-7 ATS the past 9 years at a neutral site.  I do believe Mizzou is going to be the dormat of all BCS teams this year.







Got to agree with Colin on this one.  Illinois will whip Mizzou.

improv

I need a little help here.  I have always used a local book, but live in a new area so i will be going online for the first time.  What sites do ya'll use?

thanks
The more you speak, the less people will listen.

 

tiber

Quote from: BigC51 on August 10, 2009, 10:23:07 am

Nevada +12 at Notre Dame.  ND will be good this year... but Nevada is no slouch.


I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Nevada living and dieing last year by their athletic QB who is now gone.  Did they have someone capable waiting in the wings? 

athunt

Quote from: tiber on August 11, 2009, 01:14:17 pm
I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Nevada living and dieing last year by their athletic QB who is now gone.  Did they have someone capable waiting in the wings? 

Im pretty sure this is him. http://www.nevadawolfpack.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=45375&SPID=4082&DB_OEM_ID=10000&ATCLID=530619&Q_SEASON=2009

This kid is a game changer.
"It's easy to recruit these combine guys that run around real fast in their underwear.  We're gonna recruit football players"
-Reggie Johnson

OahuHawg

Quote from: improv on August 11, 2009, 11:01:05 am
I need a little help here.  I have always used a local book, but live in a new area so i will be going online for the first time.  What sites do ya'll use?

thanks

I go through www.2betdsi.com. Great customer service with a 24hr hotline and easy to withdrawl winnings. There is a one time verification form you have to fax in to make your first withdrawl for legal purposes, but after that, you just click and recieve your check by certified mail in about 3 days depending where you live. I also like betjamaica.com but I've been sticking with DSI lately. There are a couple of drawbacks as with every online service however, DSI is a little slow on getting the spreads out, they seem to wait a bit in order not to get killed. Plus since I only bet coll football, my account is inactive for much of the year, so they'll give me a call every couple of months to offer me promotions and stuff. Its only once every couple of months though so its no big deal.

As for the above tips: You guys just beginning in online betting. LISTEN TO THESE TIPS..they are excellent. Couldn't have said it better myself. The big time TV games are the toughest to bet against the spread, because not only are you betting against the bookmakers, you are also betting against the irrational emotional fans that have a pre-set opinion on a certain team. Notre Dame games are especially tough. Theres not a person in the country that doesn't have an opinion about this team, and this skews the numbers a bit. Big money games are those such as Toledo, E. Carolina, Ball St., Tulsa. These games are pretty solid and the numbers are steady.

My main rule is: NEVER BET FOR OR AGAINST ARKANSAS (or your home team). Keep emotion out of it and run with teams you have no emotional ties to whatsoever.

Also and probably most importantly: Don't gamble with money you wouldn't mind losing. If you want to gamble, set aside a certain amount of money and consider it gone. Never go past your pre-set acceptable losses amount if you crap out. Thats where that "only one big score will get me back even" mentality can get people in trouble.

I agree there needs to be a seperate forum for gaming as I would be on it consistantly. I have done very well the last three seasons picking about 70% percent against the spread, mostly with 2-5 game parlays. If novice betters want some advice on how to get started let me know. I look forward to discussing the lines with you fellow betters in the future.

BloodRedHog


I am in for the separate Gaming forum....let's do it.
Handling all your mortgage and home financing needs...

_Collin1

Couple of notes on previous posts:

*WE NEED a forum for Sports Betting.  Then all the posts can be seperated by Ark v Mizz St, Illinois v Mizzou, ULM v Texas, etc etc.

*If you you guys want to find a place to do your betting, go here:  http://www.sportsbookreview.com/

*My buddy who handicaps in Vegas for a living is already on 2 plays...  Colorado -10 (v Col St) and New Mexico +14.  Still researching the NM play as I had them pegged as one of the worst teams in FBS, but they are playing TAMU who I also believe will be terrible.  The Colorado pick looks MONEY.  That rushing attack will be all over a Colorado St defense that lost almost all of their front 7.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

zark

QuoteWE NEED a forum for Sports Betting.

This is a sports forum right?  With a politics forum, finance forum, etc.  Give the peeps they wants!

WILL CLINTON

did we get the forum and I missed it, or what?
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Rendezvous Cook

Ole Piss is a money maker week 1.   Take emotion out of it and realize that they get everyone back......16.5 will be covered twice.  There won't be enough Kool Aid in Mississippi.

zark

QuoteOle Piss is a money maker week 1.   Take emotion out of it and realize that they get everyone back......16.5 will be covered twice.  There won't be enough Kool Aid in Mississippi.

Please think about this one a little more.  I haven't researched this game at all but this line looks a little freaked to me.  Memphis always plays teams close the closer the distance to the opponent no matter the conference differential.

I don't think Ole Miss has much of an easy time here, There's too much pride involved in the local strip club scenes to just lay down.  Memphis will be overmatched, but they won't be laying down that easily. 

SPAL

I have used bodog as my main book forever and have nothing but good to say about them. I reccomend them simply because its who i use and i dont know much about the other ones. Sportbook.com is another one i use thats pretty good and betUS.com has some very good features. There are a couple who offer really good sign up bonuses. Ive seen some up to 300%...in other words they give you 300% of your first deposit. But try not to use 1 book. use different books. some books have bette rlines than others. Granted it will not be by more than a few points/runs....it still may make the investment better.

But while im on the subject...please dont use a local bookie. With the advent of al gores intranets, we have so many advantages using online books.

1. Its not illegal offshore.
2. its much more 3 convienient. The click of a button and u placed your bet. it is instant.
3. Bonuses...as mentioned above,.
4. better and more lines as mentioned above.
5. Offshore sportsbook betting offers the basics like sides, totals, and parlays, but also teasers and thrilling big-game props; plus, gambling on the most talked about non-sports events.

SPAL

A couple more tips i thought of...

1. Clearly define your bankroll (amt you wish to bet with). This is not necessarily how much u have in a sportsbook at any given time although in might be if you use only one book. This is the amt u set aside that you can live without and not take food off the table. If its 20 bucks or 20000...make sure u arent putting your family at jeopardy and stick to it....do not get into the habit of putting more money into an account if u have lost you bankroll.

2.  I reccomend only betting about 3% of your bankroll on any given game to start with, even if u think it is a slam dunk. Think of this as wall street. You are going to likely be up and down...but this allows you to weather any storms u might run across. As your bankroll increases by 20%, then u might go up to 5% of your bankroll...but never more than 12%. This is my opinion and only my opinion...others here might disagree...but i choose to err on the side of caution.

3. make no more than 5 plays...this is why you only bet a small amount of your bankroll. Other might disagree with me, but i would rather go 3-1 or 4-0 than go 6-5...betting more games means u have more chances of winning, but it also means u have more choices of losing. Suppose you bet 10 games and lose em all....you likely lost a ton of money....now suppose you only bet 3 games and lost em all....not so hard to swallow. Betting a few solid games with a slim portion of your bankroll each time is my keys to success.

This is only my opinion, and Will Clinton or BigC may totally disagree with me...but do what feels comfortable to you and remember #1...never put your family at jeopardy doing this. This is only for fun...it should never become more than a form of entertiainment.

little pigee

It's not about the money...it's about the amount of money.

SPAL

finally...ALWAYS buy the half a point. If you get Team A -6.5..always buy that half to 6. If team A wins by a touchdown, you lose unless u bought that half.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on August 14, 2009, 09:39:44 am
A couple more tips i thought of...

1. Clearly define your bankroll (amt you wish to bet with). This is not necessarily how much u have in a sportsbook at any given time although in might be if you use only one book. This is the amt u set aside that you can live without and not take food off the table. If its 20 bucks or 20000...make sure u arent putting your family at jeopardy and stick to it....do not get into the habit of putting more money into an account if u have lost you bankroll.

2.  I reccomend only betting about 3% of your bankroll on any given game to start with, even if u think it is a slam dunk. Think of this as wall street. You are going to likely be up and down...but this allows you to weather any storms u might run across. As your bankroll increases by 20%, then u might go up to 5% of your bankroll...but never more than 12%. This is my opinion and only my opinion...others here might disagree...but i choose to err on the side of caution.

3. make no more than 5 plays...this is why you only bet a small amount of your bankroll. Other might disagree with me, but i would rather go 3-1 or 4-0 than go 6-5...betting more games means u have more chances of winning, but it also means u have more choices of losing. Suppose you bet 10 games and lose em all....you likely lost a ton of money....now suppose you only bet 3 games and lost em all....not so hard to swallow. Betting a few solid games with a slim portion of your bankroll each time is my keys to success.

This is only my opinion, and Will Clinton or BigC may totally disagree with me...but do what feels comfortable to you and remember #1...never put your family at jeopardy doing this. This is only for fun...it should never become more than a form of entertiainment.

I totally agree for any amateurs out there thinking about getting into sports betting for the first time, with all your points, definitely about the bank roll, same as casinos, only take what you can afford to lose...Although I usually tend to go voer the 3% rule now that I am a bit more shall we say "seasoned" (read lost a lot of money), I usually can make up any large losses a little bit at a time throughout the season now that I can pick a little better....


Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on August 14, 2009, 09:57:31 am
finally...ALWAYS buy the half a point. If you get Team A -6.5..always buy that half to 6. If team A wins by a touchdown, you lose unless u bought that half.

Best tip in this thread by far, always, and I do mean always buy the half a point, you have no idea what it's like to to have +2.5 and lose by that half a point, lot of money gone by not following this tip...
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

_Collin1

Quote from: Rendezvous Cook on August 13, 2009, 11:01:06 pm
Ole Piss is a money maker week 1.   Take emotion out of it and realize that they get everyone back......16.5 will be covered twice.  There won't be enough Kool Aid in Mississippi.
I want to believe this too.... truth is that Ole Piss/Memphis game is JUST like Iowa/Iowa St.  You always expect a blowout and the underdog always covers.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

_Collin1

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on August 14, 2009, 09:18:32 am
I have used bodog as my main book forever and have nothing but good to say about them. I reccomend them simply because its who i use and i dont know much about the other ones. Sportbook.com is another one i use thats pretty good and betUS.com has some very good features. There are a couple who offer really good sign up bonuses. Ive seen some up to 300%...in other words they give you 300% of your first deposit. But try not to use 1 book. use different books. some books have bette rlines than others. Granted it will not be by more than a few points/runs....it still may make the investment better.

But while im on the subject...please dont use a local bookie. With the advent of al gores intranets, we have so many advantages using online books.

1. Its not illegal offshore.
2. its much more 3 convienient. The click of a button and u placed your bet. it is instant.
3. Bonuses...as mentioned above,.
4. better and more lines as mentioned above.
5. Offshore sportsbook betting offers the basics like sides, totals, and parlays, but also teasers and thrilling big-game props; plus, gambling on the most talked about non-sports events.


Ill point you guys again to my link http://sportsbookreview.com

I personally used Bodog for years.  Then I got completely fed up with 2 things.  1) They dont release college football lines until 48 hours before (then you can't get the good line cause its already moved) and 2) They ALWAYS add an extra point to favorites. 

People have a hard time taking dogs.  The public in general is always on Favs.  If you have the balls to bet dogs, go to Bodog.  You get an extra point, but you have to wait for the line until before the game.

I personally use bookmaker.com and betjamaica.com

Easily the best.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

ChicoHog

I read in today's paper that UF is -73 over Charleston southern.  Could that be the biggest spread ever listed?

What do you think about NC st SCarolina.  Last eyar I thought NC st was a good play but I was way off base.  This year it's in Raleigh and the Wolfpack are favored.  Should be a good game. 

_Collin1

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on August 14, 2009, 09:39:44 am
A couple more tips i thought of...

1. Clearly define your bankroll (amt you wish to bet with). This is not necessarily how much u have in a sportsbook at any given time although in might be if you use only one book. This is the amt u set aside that you can live without and not take food off the table. If its 20 bucks or 20000...make sure u arent putting your family at jeopardy and stick to it....do not get into the habit of putting more money into an account if u have lost you bankroll.

2.  I reccomend only betting about 3% of your bankroll on any given game to start with, even if u think it is a slam dunk. Think of this as wall street. You are going to likely be up and down...but this allows you to weather any storms u might run across. As your bankroll increases by 20%, then u might go up to 5% of your bankroll...but never more than 12%. This is my opinion and only my opinion...others here might disagree...but i choose to err on the side of caution.

3. make no more than 5 plays...this is why you only bet a small amount of your bankroll. Other might disagree with me, but i would rather go 3-1 or 4-0 than go 6-5...betting more games means u have more chances of winning, but it also means u have more choices of losing. Suppose you bet 10 games and lose em all....you likely lost a ton of money....now suppose you only bet 3 games and lost em all....not so hard to swallow. Betting a few solid games with a slim portion of your bankroll each time is my keys to success.

This is only my opinion, and Will Clinton or BigC may totally disagree with me...but do what feels comfortable to you and remember #1...never put your family at jeopardy doing this. This is only for fun...it should never become more than a form of entertiainment.

Great Post buddy.  Let me add on to the points.

1) Make ONE deposit a year.  If you get into a habit of depositing multiple time, you are dead meat.  NEVER PLAN on getting that money back... then you will still be able to pay bills and your family will never notice.  You may say "well gee its been a bad month and I just can get 100, 500, or a thousand in my yearly deposit.  This may or may not help, but here is what I do...  I get paid bi-monthly.  Certain part goes to bills, certain part goes to wife for groceries and stuff for the kids, another part goes to savings, and then a small amount is sent to a secret "slush fund".  It may be 10 bucks a paycheck, maybe 50.  Your yearly deposit is then anywhere from $140 to $1200.

2.  Great percentages posted there by Sir Pig.  Lots of betters use "units".  1 unit to you might be one dollar, might mean $10 to me.  Make your own defined units.  Mine is almost exactly like what Sir Pig talks about.  My 1 unit is 1% of my roll.  Thats called a SMALL PLAY for me.  3 to 5 Units (3-5%) is a Regular play for me.  My bet of the month or bet of the year happens very infrequently but its anywhere from 10-20%.  I usually got about .500 on small plays, .600 on Regular Plays, and about .800 on Bet of the Month/Year. 

3.  No more to add to 3, other than never bet more than 20% to 25% of your total roll each week.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

_Collin1

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 18, 2009, 10:45:56 pm
Best tip in this thread by far, always, and I do mean always buy the half a point, you have no idea what it's like to to have +2.5 and lose by that half a point, lot of money gone by not following this tip...

I had to reply to this Will :)

Yes always buy the hook in every sport but one....  NBA.  You buy the hook on every line except 5.5.  Its the CRAZIEST damn thing I have ever seen, but I have an article stashed somewhere about how Vegas has saved millions of dollars to buy the hook on the 5.5 line (to 6 or 5) and it never mattered.  Close games in NBA almost ALWAYS end on 3, 4, or 7 points.  Thats NBA and its NCAAF time :)
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

_Collin1

Quote from: ChicoHog on August 18, 2009, 10:53:33 pm
I read in today's paper that UF is -73 over Charleston southern.  Could that be the biggest spread ever listed?

What do you think about NC st SCarolina.  Last eyar I thought NC st was a good play but I was way off base.  This year it's in Raleigh and the Wolfpack are favored.  Should be a good game. 
Who ever is posted that made a joke... unless a local bookie made that bet.  IF they did, take Charelston Southern and bet the house.  Those starters are out at halftime.  You are looking at a 56-0 or maybe 63-0 win at best.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

_Collin1

I have one confirmation on a play...

Small Play W. Michigan +12, yep Michigan is going down.
Arkansas Alumni: Undergrad 2000, Graduate 2002
Voter: Heisman | Ray Guy | Biletnikoff
Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/collin-wilson
The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/author/collin-wilson/

bsking

I would really like to have a betting forum.  I am one of the rookies a lot of you guys are talking about and am planning on betting this season for the first time.  Being a college student my roll is going to be $100, I figure betting $5 a game.  I am really doing this more for the entertainment factor rather than a money maker.  Making money would be a nice side effect though.

ChicoHog

Quote from: BigC51 on August 18, 2009, 11:05:29 pm
Who ever is posted that made a joke... unless a local bookie made that bet.  IF they did, take Charelston Southern and bet the house.  Those starters are out at halftime.  You are looking at a 56-0 or maybe 63-0 win at best.
It was in the USA Today.  It was not a joke.  I don't think amy book makers will take much action on that line. 

coach, my back hurts

I wouldnt mind getting into something like this.  I dont fully understand the +/- thing, but is there a way to bet on teams "straight up"?  Like OSU/UG or BYU/OU, if i just wanted to bet that OSU would win, not by how much, but just win, can i do that on these sites?  And are these sites safe?  Creating an account and giving you credit card numbers to something that is illegal sounds ballsy to me.  How does all this work?

bsking

August 19, 2009, 12:13:24 am #48 Last Edit: August 19, 2009, 12:15:12 am by bsking
Quote from: coach, my back hurts on August 19, 2009, 12:02:19 am
I wouldnt mind getting into something like this.  I dont fully understand the +/- thing, but is there a way to bet on teams "straight up"?  Like OSU/UG or BYU/OU, if i just wanted to bet that OSU would win, not by how much, but just win, can i do that on these sites?  And are these sites safe?  Creating an account and giving you credit card numbers to something that is illegal sounds ballsy to me.  How does all this work?

From what I understand you can either bet with the spread, which gives a 1:1 payout, or you can bet straight up on a team.  However, betting straight up will rarely be a 1:1 payout.  Where you find the point spreads you can also usually find a number anywhere from 50-300 (general) and that represents the amount of money you will need to bet to get a $100 payout.  A favored team will have a number higher than 100 and vice versa.

I Think that is fairly accurate.

OahuHawg

Quote from: coach, my back hurts on August 19, 2009, 12:02:19 am
I wouldnt mind getting into something like this.  I dont fully understand the +/- thing, but is there a way to bet on teams "straight up"?  Like OSU/UG or BYU/OU, if i just wanted to bet that OSU would win, not by how much, but just win, can i do that on these sites?  And are these sites safe?  Creating an account and giving you credit card numbers to something that is illegal sounds ballsy to me.  How does all this work?

I would suggest doing some research on some gambling sites before commiting to one. There a few excellent sites dedicated to reviewing and rating all gambling websites. They will list all the pros and cons of each site and grade the security and legitimacy. There are some big ones that are very well established like sports.com and sportsbook.com.
Most sites will let you do straight up bets but betting on the favorite on a straight up bet will not give you a 2-1 payout. For example if you bet $100 on the the Fav in OU/BYU (depends on how much OU is favored by at the time) you might get $140 back if they win thus a profit of $40 but risk $100 if they lose. It works the other way around if you take the underdog though. If you take BYU and risk $100, the payout may be around $300-400. Again these are all hypothetical numbers, it all depends on when the odds are released and how much they change before you place a bet. Hope that helps