Better Schedule = Better RPI = Better NCAA seed

[Adam Stokes]

Well, after everyone complaining (including me) how bad our schedule was last year, I can't wait for this season.  I was doing some tampering with the RPI.  Everyone knows the two reasons we didn't make the tourney last year was our non-conference schedule, and our 6-10 SEC record. 

Our overall Strength of Schedule RPI last year according to teamrankings.com was 119.  And our regular RPI was 108.  After doing some calculations I found that if we had had the same non-conference schedule this year opposed to last year, our total SOS RPI would be 9!!! Nine!!!! Ninth best in the nation.  With that affecting 75% of the rankings, our RPI would shot up to 30, probably good enough to make the tournament.  I like what Heath's doing this year despite the criticism.  He doing exactly what was wrong last season, and with the higher hopes of our players and not many "cupcake" opponents, I believe this is the year to celebrate.  (We can celebrate next year is we sign Thad)

        Adam Stokes

[Tomhog™]

I don't think our non-conference record will match last year's.  We'd have to win at Hawaii and beat some other salty teams.  UA bball is not yet an elite program...

[ReturnToDynasty?]

I don't think our non-conference record will match last year's. We'd have to win at Hawaii and beat some other salty teams. UA bball is not yet an elite program...

we were at one time elite, but we have since fallen.

[Adam Stokes]

      I see us going 10 - 3 in non conference.  We beat portland state, and then I believe we will win 1 out of 3 in Maui, listen why. 

              When I was reading what some people were saying, they were saying that we'd lose every game in the maui tourny, some including chaminade.  I think we will win 1 out of 3 because of simple guesstamations.  The first game we play Connecticut, which I would give us a 30% chance of winning, fair enough?  Okay, whether we win or lose we will play either AZ or Kansas.  Once again, 30% of winning against either of them.  Possibility we will win one of first two games?  60%.  As long as we win one game, we will most likely face either Gonzaga or Maryland.  But because both of them are top 15 preseason teams on ESPN, we will lose to one of them.  And if all else fails we will beat Chaminade.  But the early season experience against good teams will help us later on in the season, not give us false hope like last season.  Then the other hard games are against Texas Tech, Missouri, and Rice.  Texas Tech is only ranked two higher than us in ESPN's preseason article, and Missouri and Rice aren't even Top 50.  I believe we will lose to Texas Tech, but beat the other two.  So, with hope we can end 11-2, more likely 10-3, and possible 9-4.

      With my non-conference predictions in, time to move to conference.  Miss St. is in shambles, and I believe we will win both games.  Same with Mississippi.  I believe we will split games with LSU, even though we should've won both and they lsot brandon Bass, they still have a decent team.  We will lose at least one to Alabama, but I think we'll lose both with the great team that they have.  Auburn has improved, but not enough.  We should win both there.  So far, our SEC West record should be 7-3 give or take.  We should lose to Kentucky and Florida, but not Vandy or GA or Ten or SC.  Giving us a total of 11-5.  Even if we lose two games I didn't predict, our record would be 9-7, which according to the past usually is good enough for an SEC bid.

Am I predicting a 20 win season before the NCAA's? Yes, becuase with the experience coming back and Heath going to work harder because his head is slowly being placed on the guollitine*, I think this will be a breakthrough season for the hogs.

Please comment on the games I might've overestimated, or underestimated.

        Adam Stokes

[Jim Harris]

Well, after everyone complaining (including me) how bad our schedule was last year, I can't wait for this season. I was doing some tampering with the RPI. Everyone knows the two reasons we didn't make the tourney last year was our non-conference schedule, and our 6-10 SEC record.

Our overall Strength of Schedule RPI last year according to teamrankings.com was 119. And our regular RPI was 108. After doing some calculations I found that if we had had the same non-conference schedule this year opposed to last year, our total SOS RPI would be 9!!! Nine!!!! Ninth best in the nation. With that affecting 75% of the rankings, our RPI would shot up to 30, probably good enough to make the tournament. I like what Heath's doing this year despite the criticism. He doing exactly what was wrong last season, and with the higher hopes of our players and not many "cupcake" opponents, I believe this is the year to celebrate. (We can celebrate next year is we sign Thad)

Adam Stokes

well, yeah, our strength of schedule would have been 9, but our record would have been 13-15 or worse, and Frank would have gotten the OK from the board to pull the trigger on Stan then.

[Adam Stokes]

That's a good point.  I guess the bad schedule is what saved Stan.

[Biggus Piggus]

I'm hoping for two wins at Maui.  Sure, there are name teams out there, and they recruited big names, but this will be early November.  UConn, Arizona and Kansas lost great talent; we lost diddly.  Our team will put some strong players on the floor including senior Modica and junior Brewer.  Few teams in college period have two big men like Townes and Hill, both of whom have improved dramatically over the summer.  Our opponents will scout us based on last year's film and see darn.  Hipsher is the man to tighten our defensive concept.  We have the chance to spring something on these very green but name opponents + lever our experience advantages early on.  We couldn't play them at a more ideal time.  We beat them, they get better through the season and help our numbers tremendously come March.

[Adam Stokes]

We simply need to learn how to score against the zone.  Teams would play man-to-man against us last year and we'd tear em' up.  Then by the end of the season I saw zone and full-court press, both did us in every time.  I was living on the GA/SC border at the time and went to see the South Carolina game.  I had my Razorback hat on, the one with an actual plastic razorback on my head, and was hyped going to the game.  I made a mistake going to see the razorbacks on the road.  In the second half we couldn't score against the zone and walking back to the car I hid my hat under my sweater so I wouldn't get laughed at.  That's how bad it was near the end of the season.  I know this year I won't have to resort to such measures.  We didn't get any big-time recruits thanks to the infamous Brandon Rush, but it's not the freshmans that will shine bright this year.  Everybody's expecting alot out of Brewer.  He's expected to be drafted top 10 from NBAdraft.net.  I really hope he doesn't leave at the end this year.  His numbers I don't think will be as good as last year because Modica, Townes, and Hill will all step up.  I'm really wanting Hill to have a good year though.  He averaged a buttload of blocked shots like crazy playing 16 minutes a game, imagine 35 minutes.  Brewer would've led in steals if it weren't for the amazing Rondo.  Just gotta score against the zone and score in the last minutes of games.

[hawkeyefan17]

Do well in Maui and blow through the rest of your non-conference schedule and then have a decent SEC season (8-8 or 7-9) Arkansas will make the NCAA tournament. With Iowa making the NCAA tournament last season that is proof that it is the body of work that gets you in as opposed to conference record. Of course an upset in the conference tournament would help the resume as well.

[pork-e-pine]

An elite program can have tough times so I say UA is elite. The final fours and big conference victories speak for themselves.  We are just in a rebuilding time.  I do think everybody is seeing the light now.  Recruiting has just been fenominal.
That being said...How does not playing away games effect RPI or does it?

[Tomhog™]

Let me re-phrase what I tried to say earlier....  Overall, I'd say we have an elite program.  But over the last few years, we are not a team that many fear to play anymore...  BWA is not the formidable fortress it once was...  I remember when opponents would come in and shake in their shoes before tipoff, knowing they were about to get their arses handed to them...