Reality Check for Hogs Vs. Crimson Tide

[slopinhogs]

it's a gut feeling i have had for a while now after injesting all those facts. we are better than Alabama is and Casey will throw the ball better agains them and we will win this game on guts alone. :razorback:

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Guys, this is a football game, not a statistics class.  The game is going to be decided by what happens on the field Saturday, and has nothing to do with what has happened the last nine years.  Historical data has absolutely no impact on the outcome of a game.

And even if previous stats did affect the outcome, you can't look at the stats of a team that has played ECU and Vanderbilt, and come to the conclusion that they will beat us.  

Maybe you are right.......we'll see Saturday if stat's are worthless and mean nothing.

We may very well lose on Saturday, but if we do, it won't be because of Nutt's past record against Saban or because we are 0-4 when playing on the second Saturday in September.  It will be because, on Saturday, the Bama players outplay the Arkansas players.  You guys are putting way too much analysis into this.  It's football.  It's decided on the field, not from past trends in history.

I watched the first half of the Bama/Vandy game on Saturday, and I honestly wasn't very impressed.  They gave up a couple of huge plays to Vanderbilt that got called back for penalties.  If it weren't for those penalties, it would have been a completely different game.  Wilson was 50% for 150 yards with an int, which is by no means great.  He averaged 5.4 yards attempt.  That is worse than what Casey did against Troy, but you want to praise Wilson and vilify Dick for their performances.  

How I see this game playing out is about the same way the Auburn game played out last year.  They are going to stack the box in the beginning, Dick will hit a couple of plays to make them back off, and then Dmac, Jones, and Hillis sit there and pound on them for the rest of the game.  Dick will probably throw between 10 to 15 passes for the game, and the running backs are going to be huge.  

WE ALL hope you are right, but as I said, come Saturday, we will see if stats and history mean anything. History is an indicator of past successes and failures and perhaps an indicator of things to come. If we are smart, we learn from our mistakes and make the changes necessary to insure we don't continue making mistakes. On the other hand, if we don't, we can make the same mistakes over and over. Saturday is a key game for us and will tell us a great deal about where we are headed as a football team.

[Hawg Daddy Cool]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

And with the exception of 2005, who won the games that you cited?  Maybe that's a trend that you are ignoring.  As far as them averaging 473 yards, that's in two games, against two not very good defenses.  If you want to look at trends, you need to wait until several games into the season to do that.  They had almost 600 yards of offense against Western Carolina (1-AA school) and then only had 371 yards of offense against a less than stellar Vanderbit defense.  Our defense might not be great, but I'm pretty sure we have more talent on that side of the ball than Vanderbilt.  It's going to take them more than 371 yards of offense to beat us.  

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

And with the exception of 2005, who won the games that you cited?  Maybe that's a trend that you are ignoring.  As far as them averaging 473 yards, that's in two games, against two not very good defenses.  If you want to look at trends, you need to wait until several games into the season to do that.  They had almost 600 yards of offense against Western Carolina (1-AA school) and then only had 371 yards of offense against a less than stellar Vanderbit defense.  Our defense might not be great, but I'm pretty sure we have more talent on that side of the ball than Vanderbilt.  It's going to take them more than 371 yards of offense to beat us.  

Bottom line is......it will be their offense against our "D" and their "D" against our offense. If it is close and comes down to the kicking game, we will win. If it turns out to be the way it usually is when we play at Bama, we won't. They may not have passed very well last week, but they ran well(275 yds rushing). This week, it might be the other way around knowing our secondary is soft. Maybe we have a "hidden" passing game that DL and HDN have been hiding.....I hope that is the case because I assure you that every Bama player is going to have #5 and #25 stenciled on their helmets. Every team that plays against a potential Hesiman winner wants to shut them down.....Alabama will be no different. I think it will be a hard fought game. I hope I am wrong, but I expect Alabama to win this one 27-24. No homerism......just trying to look at it objectively.

[bphi11ips]

Since this game is already over, why are we even going down there?  By reading these statements we don't stand a chance aganists the big bad Tide, but don't tell that to DMac and company, because they could care less what has happened since 1998.  It seems like we won this game last year, but I could be wrong.

I remember both teams trying to give it away last year. What has changed? They ran off shula, we ran off mitch. They got Saban, we got Dick. Advantage Bama.

+1

[akp4105]

To begin with, we all want the Hogs to win, me included. We ALL want that, so I don;t want to hear any b.s. about not being a "true fan". What I am going to give you is reality and records over the years based on actual stats.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 400 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 2-0.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 380 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

Since 1998, when we play Alabama at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

This year, Alabama is averaging 473 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game which we play......in Alabama.

Nutt's all time record against Saban is 2-3. Nutt's all time record against Saban on Saban's home field is 0-2.

Our RB's are outstanding, theirs are average. Their O-Line is great, our O-Line is average(at this point). Their QB is very good, ours is below average. Their secondary is very good, ours is below average. Their D-Line is average, ours is average. Their LB's are excellent, ours are perhaps a little above average. Their WR's are average and ours are average. We both have great kickers. The key to this game is going to be( I know this sounds cliche'), whomever makes fewer mistakes, doesn't turn the ball over(Alabama is +1.00 and Arkansas is -1.00 to date this season) and controls the line of scrimmage. I'm sorry guys, I see Bama taking this one.......27-24.

nice stats..you been looking those up all day? thats not what wins games..paper doesnt win games.. players do..i'll take the hogs by 10 or more

[DirkPiggler]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 473 yard average, any more than I would the 504 yard average our offense carries into the game.  Both have come against equivalent (and terrible) competition. 

Where did you get your stats for Alabama against Arkansas?  Your numbers are way off compared to what Hogwired has in the official box score for each of those games.

2006:  243 yds passing, 118 rushing, 361 total.
2005:  173 passing, 128 rushing, 301 total.
2004:  57 passing, 271 rushing, 328 total.


The 2006 Tide failed to run the ball against what was at the time a porous Hog run defense.  118 yards on 52 carries is pitiful, especially when you consider that the week before Vanderbilt had torched our defense for 240 rushing yards on only 37 carries.  They were able to pass the ball effectively, mainly when JP Wilson was able to get out of the pocket.  Even with this passing success, the Tide o-line still gave up five sacks.  All in all, it wasn't a good performance for the Alabama offensive line at all.

[Dugann]

good break down muskogee... I think you nailed it.  I feel that a take away or take away and D score either way for us or them will be the difference in the game.  Like you said take care of the ball and make the fewest mistakes.  I feel we will come out ahead in this one.  History don't point that away but I think we win this one hogs 27- bama 24

[PulledPork]

Firsts at South Carolina under Coach Holtz

    * Winning two consecutive New Year's Day Bowl games (2001, 2002 Outback Bowls)
    * Finishing with top 20 national rankings for two straight years (19th in 2000 and 13th in 2001)
    * Ranked in the national polls for an entire season (2001)
    * The most victories in consecutive seasons (17 from 2000-01)
    * Record-setting home attendance (82,614 average in 2001 and 82,138 in 2002)
    * Most national television appearances in a three-year period (18)
    * Most players (11) to sign NFL contracts in one season (2002 and again in 2003)
    * Back-to-back top 10 rated recruiting classes (2002, 2003)


yeah, old Lou was washed up......

and it might be a little too early to close the book on Spurrier in Cockland...he has already taken them to back-to-back bowl games in his first two years.



Pulled out...

[MysticHog]

"Look at South Carolina they have made this mistake twice, the thought they had hired the old Lou Holtz what they got was an "old Lou Holtz".  Same thing with Spurrier.  Bama has the same thing, retread from the NFL who couldn't cut it trys to do it in college again.  Don't fear Saban, still the same players, we'll killem."

What do the hell do you know? Its one thing to have an opinion, but at least back it up with substantial evidence or fact. The games Bama lost last year were by a margin of less than 7, with the exception of the Florida and LSU game. I expect your claims to be extremely inaccurate.

And If you don't think Spurrier is turning that South Caronlina program around, then you are blind and obviously don't watch enough football -- sober at least. I recall him claiming the number 4 recruiting class in the nation last year. They lost to the National Champion Gators by a margin of only one last year, while playing all other ranked teams relatively close, with the exception of Georgia and Tennessee.

I don't normally respond to the trash I read on here, but this one I could not resist.

What do I know?  I lot more than you I am sure.  A loss is a loss by 1 or 71 it's still a L.

[MysticHog]

Firsts at South Carolina under Coach Holtz

    * Winning two consecutive New Year's Day Bowl games (2001, 2002 Outback Bowls)
    * Finishing with top 20 national rankings for two straight years (19th in 2000 and 13th in 2001)
    * Ranked in the national polls for an entire season (2001)
    * The most victories in consecutive seasons (17 from 2000-01)
    * Record-setting home attendance (82,614 average in 2001 and 82,138 in 2002)
    * Most national television appearances in a three-year period (18)
    * Most players (11) to sign NFL contracts in one season (2002 and again in 2003)
    * Back-to-back top 10 rated recruiting classes (2002, 2003)


yeah, old Lou was washed up......

and it might be a little too early to close the book on Spurrier in Cockland...he has already taken them to back-to-back bowl games in his first two years.



Pulled out...

Good cut and paste, so ranking in the top 20 makes you a great coach? Not in my book.

[Hogginitall]

Guys, this is a football game, not a statistics class.  The game is going to be decided by what happens on the field Saturday, and has nothing to do with what has happened the last nine years.  Historical data has absolutely no impact on the outcome of a game.

And even if previous stats did affect the outcome, you can't look at the stats of a team that has played ECU and Vanderbilt, and come to the conclusion that they will beat us.  

Maybe you are right.......we'll see Saturday if stat's are worthless and mean nothing.

We may very well lose on Saturday, but if we do, it won't be because of Nutt's past record against Saban or because we are 0-4 when playing on the second Saturday in September.  It will be because, on Saturday, the Bama players outplay the Arkansas players.  You guys are putting way too much analysis into this.  It's football.  It's decided on the field, not from past trends in history.

I watched the first half of the Bama/Vandy game on Saturday, and I honestly wasn't very impressed.  They gave up a couple of huge plays to Vanderbilt that got called back for penalties.  If it weren't for those penalties, it would have been a completely different game.  Wilson was 50% for 150 yards with an int, which is by no means great.  He averaged 5.4 yards attempt.  That is worse than what Casey did against Troy, but you want to praise Wilson and vilify Dick for their performances.  

How I see this game playing out is about the same way the Auburn game played out last year.  They are going to stack the box in the beginning, Dick will hit a couple of plays to make them back off, and then Dmac, Jones, and Hillis sit there and pound on them for the rest of the game.  Dick will probably throw between 10 to 15 passes for the game, and the running backs are going to be huge.  

WE ALL hope you are right, but as I said, come Saturday, we will see if stats and history mean anything. History is an indicator of past successes and failures and perhaps an indicator of things to come. If we are smart, we learn from our mistakes and make the changes necessary to insure we don't continue making mistakes. On the other hand, if we don't, we can make the same mistakes over and over. Saturday is a key game for us and will tell us a great deal about where we are headed as a football team.

He's right, none of that stuff matters.  You did the same thing last game against Troy.  And on paper, they matched up with us very well........at least in your opinion.  Then, come gametime, we beat them by 20 points and it wasn't even that close.  If we had someone that could catch punts and didn't give up that last minute trash TD with our back-ups in, we would've beaten them by 40. 

[PulledPork]

Firsts at South Carolina under Coach Holtz

    * Winning two consecutive New Year's Day Bowl games (2001, 2002 Outback Bowls)
    * Finishing with top 20 national rankings for two straight years (19th in 2000 and 13th in 2001)
    * Ranked in the national polls for an entire season (2001)
    * The most victories in consecutive seasons (17 from 2000-01)
    * Record-setting home attendance (82,614 average in 2001 and 82,138 in 2002)
    * Most national television appearances in a three-year period (18)
    * Most players (11) to sign NFL contracts in one season (2002 and again in 2003)
    * Back-to-back top 10 rated recruiting classes (2002, 2003)


yeah, old Lou was washed up......

and it might be a little too early to close the book on Spurrier in Cockland...he has already taken them to back-to-back bowl games in his first two years.



Pulled out...

Good cut and paste, so ranking in the top 20 makes you a great coach? Not in my book.

what, do you think I am going to take the time and type this shiit out?  you're crazier than you sound!
who said a coach that produces top twenty rankings is the best we can expect, not me.  I was just refuting your ridiculous thought on "old Lou".  At least I put some time in and found some stats to back up my statement.
can you name the last time Nutty finished in the top twenty back to back?

Pulled out...

[MysticHog]

Firsts at South Carolina under Coach Holtz

    * Winning two consecutive New Year's Day Bowl games (2001, 2002 Outback Bowls)
    * Finishing with top 20 national rankings for two straight years (19th in 2000 and 13th in 2001)
    * Ranked in the national polls for an entire season (2001)
    * The most victories in consecutive seasons (17 from 2000-01)
    * Record-setting home attendance (82,614 average in 2001 and 82,138 in 2002)
    * Most national television appearances in a three-year period (18)
    * Most players (11) to sign NFL contracts in one season (2002 and again in 2003)
    * Back-to-back top 10 rated recruiting classes (2002, 2003)


yeah, old Lou was washed up......

and it might be a little too early to close the book on Spurrier in Cockland...he has already taken them to back-to-back bowl games in his first two years.



Pulled out...

Good cut and paste, so ranking in the top 20 makes you a great coach? Not in my book.

what, do you think I am going to take the time and type this shiit out?  you're crazier than you sound!
who said a coach that produces top twenty rankings is the best we can expect, not me.  I was just refuting your ridiculous thought on "old Lou".  At least I put some time in and found some stats to back up my statement.
can you name the last time Nutty finished in the top twenty back to back?

Pulled out...

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

[PulledPork]

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

hey, you are allowed your idiotic opinion, I am certainly not gonna keep your from it...I guess we will have to wait and see.


Pulled out...

[Oliver]

When Alabama beats us on Saturday because they outcoach us, which is the only area they have an advantage in, we'll see about that theory.

[Fatty McGee]

Look at South Carolina they have made this mistake twice, the thought they had hired the old Lou Holtz what they got was an "old Lou Holtz".  Same thing with Spurrier.  Bama has the same thing, retread from the NFL who couldn't cut it trys to do it in college again.  Don't fear Saban, still the same players, we'll killem.

Lou actually took South Carolina to respectability and made it a much better job. 

[MysticHog]

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

hey, you are allowed your idiotic opinion, I am certainly not gonna keep your from it...I guess we will have to wait and see.


Pulled out...

Your allowed to your misinformed opinion as a part time fan and a poor understudy of football.  Read more of my post and post less yourself and you might learn something.

[MikeyInTheHam]

We will see my friends, as far as I'm concerened please keep on subject and keep the name calling out. We will win this Saturday by two TD's plus.  Saban is no miracle worker, he had great players at LSU, he didn't at Miami and he had one of the worst records in the league.  Also slick Nick will get tired of the Bama  good ole boys very fast and those cheers will turn to boos very fast once we are up on them.  He'll get out of town if he's able to get the money and I don't think all that cash is going to be enough for him to take the heat if he doesn't do well.

I'll have what your drinking please.   

[JD Hogg]

We will see my friends, as far as I'm concerened please keep on subject and keep the name calling out. We will win this Saturday by two TD's plus.  Saban is no miracle worker, he had great players at LSU, he didn't at Miami and he had one of the worst records in the league.  Also slick Nick will get tired of the Bama  good ole boys very fast and those cheers will turn to boos very fast once we are up on them.  He'll get out of town if he's able to get the money and I don't think all that cash is going to be enough for him to take the heat if he doesn't do well.

Since we're so sure that the Hogs will win my only queston is if we lose, will you be calling for Nutt's head?

[parrishw]

Look at South Carolina they have made this mistake twice, the thought they had hired the old Lou Holtz what they got was an "old Lou Holtz".  Same thing with Spurrier.  Bama has the same thing, retread from the NFL who couldn't cut it trys to do it in college again.  Don't fear Saban, still the same players, we'll killem.

Lou actually took South Carolina to respectability and made it a much better job. 

+1 you betcha

Good post

[parrishw]

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

hey, you are allowed your idiotic opinion, I am certainly not gonna keep your from it...I guess we will have to wait and see.


Pulled out...

Your allowed to your misinformed opinion as a part time fan and a poor understudy of football.  Read more of my post and post less yourself and you might learn something.

Mystic you have me laughing out loud.
You are so out of your league and mis-informed and wrong it is amazing.

I really do feel sorry for you so I am not going to say anything more or respond to your posts. It would just make you look even more foolish.

[PulledPork]

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

hey, you are allowed your idiotic opinion, I am certainly not gonna keep your from it...I guess we will have to wait and see.


Pulled out...

Your allowed to your misinformed opinion as a part time fan and a poor understudy of football.  Read more of my post and post less yourself and you might learn something.

I can't you give me a headache with your idiocy



Pulled out...

[rzrbaxfan]

Bama won't be great until Saban gets his players there and his program to working. That is what happened at LSU. He didn't set the world on fire his first year if you remember. However, Bama will be a force to be reckoned with in the next few years.

I disagree, he's stepping into a much better situation at Bama than he was when he started at LSU.  I think he won't win the west, but he will have an immediate impact.

No doubt the original poster is way off base.  Coaching does make a difference.  If they still had Shula, most of us would chalk this up as a W.

[rzrbaxfan]

Old Lou didn't do squat at USC, those stats up there are run of the mill stuff.  Get real.   He won a NC at ND and almost won one here he never came close at SC his time had passed.  If you don't know that you are not much of a fan of the game.  Same goes for Spurrier and Saban.  Nick Saban is not going win a NC at Bama, not this year not ever.  In fact he will not win one anywhere again.

Ol Lou went from 0-11 to back to back January 1 bowl wins.  He may not have won much more than that at USC, but he did turn it around.  He didn't get it over the hump...which sorta sounds like Nutt, not the winning bowls, but the not getting over the hump.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Guys, this is a football game, not a statistics class.  The game is going to be decided by what happens on the field Saturday, and has nothing to do with what has happened the last nine years.  Historical data has absolutely no impact on the outcome of a game.

And even if previous stats did affect the outcome, you can't look at the stats of a team that has played ECU and Vanderbilt, and come to the conclusion that they will beat us.  

Maybe you are right.......we'll see Saturday if stat's are worthless and mean nothing.

We may very well lose on Saturday, but if we do, it won't be because of Nutt's past record against Saban or because we are 0-4 when playing on the second Saturday in September.  It will be because, on Saturday, the Bama players outplay the Arkansas players.  You guys are putting way too much analysis into this.  It's football.  It's decided on the field, not from past trends in history.

I watched the first half of the Bama/Vandy game on Saturday, and I honestly wasn't very impressed.  They gave up a couple of huge plays to Vanderbilt that got called back for penalties.  If it weren't for those penalties, it would have been a completely different game.  Wilson was 50% for 150 yards with an int, which is by no means great.  He averaged 5.4 yards attempt.  That is worse than what Casey did against Troy, but you want to praise Wilson and vilify Dick for their performances.  

How I see this game playing out is about the same way the Auburn game played out last year.  They are going to stack the box in the beginning, Dick will hit a couple of plays to make them back off, and then Dmac, Jones, and Hillis sit there and pound on them for the rest of the game.  Dick will probably throw between 10 to 15 passes for the game, and the running backs are going to be huge.  

WE ALL hope you are right, but as I said, come Saturday, we will see if stats and history mean anything. History is an indicator of past successes and failures and perhaps an indicator of things to come. If we are smart, we learn from our mistakes and make the changes necessary to insure we don't continue making mistakes. On the other hand, if we don't, we can make the same mistakes over and over. Saturday is a key game for us and will tell us a great deal about where we are headed as a football team.

He's right, none of that stuff matters.  You did the same thing last game against Troy.  And on paper, they matched up with us very well........at least in your opinion.  Then, come gametime, we beat them by 20 points and it wasn't even that close.  If we had someone that could catch punts and didn't give up that last minute trash TD with our back-ups in, we would've beaten them by 40. 

You sir, are full of it. What I said before Troy was that we would win, but we would not cover the spread. Did we cover the spread? No. Did we win? Yes. As usual, your inability to embrace objectivity and the resulting homerism you reflect, shines through. We all want the Hogs to win, but I can assure you that Alabama is no Troy. And the whole point of any of the threads I write, is to get you guys talking and, here you are. Mission accomplished. Have a nice day. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 473 yard average, any more than I would the 504 yard average our offense carries into the game.  Both have come against equivalent (and terrible) competition. 

Where did you get your stats for Alabama against Arkansas?  Your numbers are way off compared to what Hogwired has in the official box score for each of those games.

2006:  243 yds passing, 118 rushing, 361 total.
2005:  173 passing, 128 rushing, 301 total.
2004:  57 passing, 271 rushing, 328 total.


The 2006 Tide failed to run the ball against what was at the time a porous Hog run defense.  118 yards on 52 carries is pitiful, especially when you consider that the week before Vanderbilt had torched our defense for 240 rushing yards on only 37 carries.  They were able to pass the ball effectively, mainly when JP Wilson was able to get out of the pocket.  Even with this passing success, the Tide o-line still gave up five sacks.  All in all, it wasn't a good performance for the Alabama offensive line at all.

Dirk, my stats came directly from the NCAA and I trust them a whole lot more than Hogwired. Like last year, 243 yds passing and 168 yds rushing = 411 total yds. I don;t see how that is off. In 2005 151 rushing and 173 passing = 324 yds. In 2004 57 rushing and 274 passing = 331 yds. Simple. And I hardly think that hitting us for 168 yds rushing last year could be called us shutting them down.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To begin with, we all want the Hogs to win, me included. We ALL want that, so I don;t want to hear any b.s. about not being a "true fan". What I am going to give you is reality and records over the years based on actual stats.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 400 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 2-0.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 380 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

Since 1998, when we play Alabama at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

This year, Alabama is averaging 473 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game which we play......in Alabama.

Nutt's all time record against Saban is 2-3. Nutt's all time record against Saban on Saban's home field is 0-2.

Our RB's are outstanding, theirs are average. Their O-Line is great, our O-Line is average(at this point). Their QB is very good, ours is below average. Their secondary is very good, ours is below average. Their D-Line is average, ours is average. Their LB's are excellent, ours are perhaps a little above average. Their WR's are average and ours are average. We both have great kickers. The key to this game is going to be( I know this sounds cliche'), whomever makes fewer mistakes, doesn't turn the ball over(Alabama is +1.00 and Arkansas is -1.00 to date this season) and controls the line of scrimmage. I'm sorry guys, I see Bama taking this one.......27-24.

nice stats..you been looking those up all day? thats not what wins games..paper doesnt win games.. players do..i'll take the hogs by 10 or more

Thanks for being a S.A. I bet that really boosts your self esteem. Maybe you need that to make you feel better about yourself? Did it take you all day to come up with that witty response? It might take YOU all day to look those stats up, but it isn't hard if you know where to go. Your response is typical of those who have no facts and only a "gut feeling" to go off of. It is what you say when you don't have a solid reply. You are right about one thing though, players win games, not stats(wow, what an epiphany). But, stats are reflective of what a team has done in the past and sometimes, an indicator of things to come in the future. Nutt can break the team out of that mold this year, if he will. Until he does, the stats are there, as are the trends, as well as people like you who can't discuss games with any objectivity.

[DirkPiggler]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 473 yard average, any more than I would the 504 yard average our offense carries into the game.  Both have come against equivalent (and terrible) competition. 

Where did you get your stats for Alabama against Arkansas?  Your numbers are way off compared to what Hogwired has in the official box score for each of those games.

2006:  243 yds passing, 118 rushing, 361 total.
2005:  173 passing, 128 rushing, 301 total.
2004:  57 passing, 271 rushing, 328 total.


The 2006 Tide failed to run the ball against what was at the time a porous Hog run defense.  118 yards on 52 carries is pitiful, especially when you consider that the week before Vanderbilt had torched our defense for 240 rushing yards on only 37 carries.  They were able to pass the ball effectively, mainly when JP Wilson was able to get out of the pocket.  Even with this passing success, the Tide o-line still gave up five sacks.  All in all, it wasn't a good performance for the Alabama offensive line at all.

Dirk, my stats came directly from the NCAA and I trust them a whole lot more than Hogwired. Like last year, 243 yds passing and 168 yds rushing = 411 total yds. I don;t see how that is off. In 2005 151 rushing and 173 passing = 324 yds. In 2004 57 rushing and 274 passing = 331 yds. Simple. And I hardly think that hitting us for 168 yds rushing last year could be called us shutting them down.

Sorry, but I watched the game last year and there's no way in hell they ran for 168 net yards. 

Actually, after checking the Alabama website I see where you got your numbers.  Yours don't subtract lost yardage plays.  Last year Alabama did run for 168 yards, but they lost 50 as well for a net of 118. 

http://www.rolltide.com/fls/8000/files/football/2006/bama04.htm

[MDH]

Forget the stats.  Only one thing matters- Nick Saban is evil.  This isn't just Tide v. Hogs, this is Evil v. Nutt-so-evil.  I'm voting for the lesser of the two.  31 - 28 Hogs.

[jmcgr002]

"Look at South Carolina they have made this mistake twice, the thought they had hired the old Lou Holtz what they got was an "old Lou Holtz".  Same thing with Spurrier.  Bama has the same thing, retread from the NFL who couldn't cut it trys to do it in college again.  Don't fear Saban, still the same players, we'll killem."

What do the hell do you know? Its one thing to have an opinion, but at least back it up with substantial evidence or fact. The games Bama lost last year were by a margin of less than 7, with the exception of the Florida and LSU game. I expect your claims to be extremely inaccurate.

And If you don't think Spurrier is turning that South Caronlina program around, then you are blind and obviously don't watch enough football -- sober at least. I recall him claiming the number 4 recruiting class in the nation last year. They lost to the National Champion Gators by a margin of only one last year, while playing all other ranked teams relatively close, with the exception of Georgia and Tennessee.

I don't normally respond to the trash I read on here, but this one I could not resist.

What do I know?  I lot more than you I am sure.  A loss is a loss by 1 or 71 it's still a L.

Would you be more worried about playing a team who lost to the defending champs by 1 or a team who lost by 71? Thats a pretty significant difference of a team's talent....you scholar you. To say that we're gonna "kill em," [referring to killing Bama] a team who had us on the ropes last season, only loosing to us b/c their kicker had a horrible day -- is a horrible assessment. They have a more experienced coach with the same, more experienced players. Look at the razorbacks of 05, a team who struggled all year b/c of youth....who came back with the same damn players a year older and had a 10 win season. Now lets think about that a little bit. You've got some growing up to do son.

[Bama Possum]

I would like to make one VERY important part about Bama's O-line. They had two weak spots last year...Chris Capps, right tackle, and Bob Connelly, Offensive Line coach.

Chris has been replaced by a much better right tackle, and Bob Connelly is back out in California preparing someone else's O-line for the "step and hinge block", also known as the Ole' Block or the Turnstile move. This O-line is very different in many aspects from last year, which still has two All-Sec linemen on it.

1. A much more aggressive blocking style that is more suited to the offense. (Connelly was a PAC-10 man.)

2. The O-line is much stronger and in better shape than last year. Andre Smith is 20 lbs lighter and faster, with more muscle tone. Remember, last year he was only a few months from having attended the prom. This year he has been in the weight room all summer. He described his new fitness and speed as being "like a gazelle". (His words, not mine.)

3. It is a two and occasionally three deep line with 3 to 5 star players who all have game experience. They are the second most experienced line in the SEC right now, and only one is a senior.

They may lay an egg this weekend, but that is a FAR better O-line than you saw last season. Terry Grant has all those yards because he has holes...big ones. Don't look over this O-line. They are becoming scary good.

[FavreHog]

To begin with, we all want the Hogs to win, me included. We ALL want that, so I don;t want to hear any b.s. about not being a "true fan". What I am going to give you is reality and records over the years based on actual stats.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 400 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 2-0.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 380 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

Since 1998, when we play Alabama at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

This year, Alabama is averaging 473 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game which we play......in Alabama.

Nutt's all time record against Saban is 2-3. Nutt's all time record against Saban on Saban's home field is 0-2.

Our RB's are outstanding, theirs are average. Their O-Line is great, our O-Line is average(at this point). Their QB is very good, ours is below average. Their secondary is very good, ours is below average. Their D-Line is average, ours is average. Their LB's are excellent, ours are perhaps a little above average. Their WR's are average and ours are average. We both have great kickers. The key to this game is going to be( I know this sounds cliche'), whomever makes fewer mistakes, doesn't turn the ball over(Alabama is +1.00 and Arkansas is -1.00 to date this season) and controls the line of scrimmage. I'm sorry guys, I see Bama taking this one.......27-24.

Why didn't you start your time line in 1999?  In 1998 we kicked the crap out of Alabama 42-6. I think?  I may be wrong?

[SECrules]

Forget the stats.  Only one thing matters- Nick Saban is evil.  This isn't just Tide v. Hogs, this is Evil v. Nutt-so-evil.  I'm voting for the lesser of the two.  31 - 28 Hogs.

I'm curious here.  Seriously, could please explain why Nick Saban is evil?  I can see this coming from a Dolphins or LSU fan who feel that Nick jilted them, but what do Arkansas fans have against him?  Evil is a pretty strong term to describe a football coach.  Evil is like Charles Manson or someone who burns your house down with your family inside.  An Evil football coach would do something like have his team gang rape the homecoming queen in front of her father or some twisted stuff like that.  Beating your team in a football game or leaving your school isn't evil, it's business.  I'm really curious about your beef with Saban.  Please explain. 

[AFWarrior83]

DMAC + FELIX/ TAJEDA(TUCK) X HERRING= Close win over BAMA!   :razorback:

[RazorbackNutt]

Since this game is already over, why are we even going down there?  By reading these statements we don't stand a chance aganists the big bad Tide, but don't tell that to DMac and company, because they could care less what has happened since 1998.  It seems like we won this game last year, but I could be wrong.

No one is saying that the game is over or that we needn't play it because we are already beaten.......not at all. I think that some of us see potential pitfalls and how we have performed at Bama and against SEC teams after we are coming off an open date, doesn't help bolster confidence. I think we all realize how important this game is....I really believe that the quality of our season hinges on this game. Win this one, we stand a very good chance of going 10-2 or maybe even better in the regular season. Lose this one and we could very well be 8-4 or worse. This is a pretty big game to be having so early in the season but here it is, nonetheless. Some people build up their enthusiasm for the game by getting all caught up in the "we are great, we have a Heisman candidate and the best team we have ever had" state of mind. Others prefer to look at things objectively. It doesn't mean we are negative, we are just studying the facts and come game day, no one will be any more fired up about the game or cheering for the Hogs than us. We all want the Hogs to win, we just choose to examine certain aspects of the game differently than others. For all those that think our line of thinking is based in "hate", it isn't. It is just based in trying to look at things fairly and with an objective viewpoint. Go Hogs!

I hate when people say they are trying to be objective and then give some sort of prediction.  It is silly and pompous. 

If you are going to claim you are trying to be objective, please just give a list of stats and let those who are not trying to be objective give a good spiel on them.  We both know that this game COULD go either way.  There is simply no clear "objective" way to look at these two teams/coaches and say that "looking at everything objectively, this team will win..."

Geez.  Sorry for the rant.  Everytime I see that word pop up next to a prediction I feel like I fell on my keys.

[woghild]

First non-creampuff away game + wooden QB = 1-1

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Since this game is already over, why are we even going down there?  By reading these statements we don't stand a chance aganists the big bad Tide, but don't tell that to DMac and company, because they could care less what has happened since 1998.  It seems like we won this game last year, but I could be wrong.

No one is saying that the game is over or that we needn't play it because we are already beaten.......not at all. I think that some of us see potential pitfalls and how we have performed at Bama and against SEC teams after we are coming off an open date, doesn't help bolster confidence. I think we all realize how important this game is....I really believe that the quality of our season hinges on this game. Win this one, we stand a very good chance of going 10-2 or maybe even better in the regular season. Lose this one and we could very well be 8-4 or worse. This is a pretty big game to be having so early in the season but here it is, nonetheless. Some people build up their enthusiasm for the game by getting all caught up in the "we are great, we have a Heisman candidate and the best team we have ever had" state of mind. Others prefer to look at things objectively. It doesn't mean we are negative, we are just studying the facts and come game day, no one will be any more fired up about the game or cheering for the Hogs than us. We all want the Hogs to win, we just choose to examine certain aspects of the game differently than others. For all those that think our line of thinking is based in "hate", it isn't. It is just based in trying to look at things fairly and with an objective viewpoint. Go Hogs!

I hate when people say they are trying to be objective and then give some sort of prediction.  It is silly and pompous. 

If you are going to claim you are trying to be objective, please just give a list of stats and let those who are not trying to be objective give a good spiel on them.  We both know that this game COULD go either way.  There is simply no clear "objective" way to look at these two teams/coaches and say that "looking at everything objectively, this team will win..."

Geez.  Sorry for the rant.  Everytime I see that word pop up next to a prediction I feel like I fell on my keys.

Well, try not to do that(fall on your keys) because I imagine I will continue to try to be objective and, since that is kinda what we do on here, I imagine I will also continue to make predictions. I thnk you are a little off in the terms you choose to use as well. It is hardly silly nor is it pompous to try to be objective and make predictions.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To begin with, we all want the Hogs to win, me included. We ALL want that, so I don;t want to hear any b.s. about not being a "true fan". What I am going to give you is reality and records over the years based on actual stats.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 400 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 2-0.

Since 1998, when Alabama averages over 380 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game when we play at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

Since 1998, when we play Alabama at Alabama, Alabama is 3-1.

This year, Alabama is averaging 473 yards of total offense per game coming into the Arkansas game which we play......in Alabama.

Nutt's all time record against Saban is 2-3. Nutt's all time record against Saban on Saban's home field is 0-2.

Our RB's are outstanding, theirs are average. Their O-Line is great, our O-Line is average(at this point). Their QB is very good, ours is below average. Their secondary is very good, ours is below average. Their D-Line is average, ours is average. Their LB's are excellent, ours are perhaps a little above average. Their WR's are average and ours are average. We both have great kickers. The key to this game is going to be( I know this sounds cliche'), whomever makes fewer mistakes, doesn't turn the ball over(Alabama is +1.00 and Arkansas is -1.00 to date this season) and controls the line of scrimmage. I'm sorry guys, I see Bama taking this one.......27-24.

Why didn't you start your time line in 1999?  In 1998 we kicked the crap out of Alabama 42-6. I think?  I may be wrong?

I began in 1998 because that is the beginning of the "Nutt" era. Had I used earlier dates, every one would have said "geez, dude, that doesn't apply".

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 473 yard average, any more than I would the 504 yard average our offense carries into the game.  Both have come against equivalent (and terrible) competition. 

Where did you get your stats for Alabama against Arkansas?  Your numbers are way off compared to what Hogwired has in the official box score for each of those games.

2006:  243 yds passing, 118 rushing, 361 total.
2005:  173 passing, 128 rushing, 301 total.
2004:  57 passing, 271 rushing, 328 total.


The 2006 Tide failed to run the ball against what was at the time a porous Hog run defense.  118 yards on 52 carries is pitiful, especially when you consider that the week before Vanderbilt had torched our defense for 240 rushing yards on only 37 carries.  They were able to pass the ball effectively, mainly when JP Wilson was able to get out of the pocket.  Even with this passing success, the Tide o-line still gave up five sacks.  All in all, it wasn't a good performance for the Alabama offensive line at all.

Dirk, my stats came directly from the NCAA and I trust them a whole lot more than Hogwired. Like last year, 243 yds passing and 168 yds rushing = 411 total yds. I don;t see how that is off. In 2005 151 rushing and 173 passing = 324 yds. In 2004 57 rushing and 274 passing = 331 yds. Simple. And I hardly think that hitting us for 168 yds rushing last year could be called us shutting them down.

Sorry, but I watched the game last year and there's no way in hell they ran for 168 net yards. 

Actually, after checking the Alabama website I see where you got your numbers.  Yours don't subtract lost yardage plays.  Last year Alabama did run for 168 yards, but they lost 50 as well for a net of 118. 

http://www.rolltide.com/fls/8000/files/football/2006/bama04.htm

Yeah, I understand, I was at the game last year as well. The yardage you speak of included 6 sacks for a -38 yards. So yeah, you'd be right about that -50 yards. I was just looking at the gross rushing yards the same as I have done for Arkansas or anyone elses stats I have included, so it wasn't like it was an unfair comparison.

[DirkPiggler]

Bama will load the line and blitz out of their skulls.  They'll get a couple of scores off turnovers and / or a short field that resulted in us punting from our endzone.  It will be a field postion battle in the first half with Bama playing most of the time in our end.  We'll keep it close for maybe two qtrs, then things will get ugly. 

You seriously overrate Alabama's talent level.  Our advantage in talent in this game is almost as great as their advantage in coaching.  It will likely be a close game one way or the other.  If there is a blowout, Arkansas will be on the good end of it. 

Alabama's offensive line is average at best.  Vanderbilt's defense was in the backfield all day on them.  Fortunately for Bama the Vandy defense tackled like a Dave Wommack - coordinated defense.  Their running backs looked solid, although maybe a bit on the small side.  It will be interesting to see how they fare when they run into a defense like ours that has good lateral speed. 

John P. Wilson is a much better QB than he showed against Vandy.  He's not a world beater, but he's not Pete Burks either.   If he plays up to his potential we will be in for some trouble defensively. 

Alabama's defense is kind of an unknown.  Other than Gilberry and the secondary, they haven't shown much.  They don't have a lot of depth on the D-line, and their linebackers are young.  The last two years Arkansas has had no trouble running on far better defenses.  If Casey can just complete 10 passes for a little over 100 yards our offense will be fine. 

Has nothing to do with overstating bama's D.  I know Nutt.  Get use to seeing a bunch of 3 and outs with our offense

You need to peel back the pig shaded glasses.  Their OL is big and may be the best in the SEC.  They'll lean on us hard between the tackles and those 3 and outs we have on offense will eventually take it's toll, and we'll start to wear down up front, probably before half.  In the second half they'll start hitting some runs on the edges and that's when it gets ugly.   

If you want a blue print, look back at the game in '05.  Difference is, Bama's coach this go around knows how to exploit weaknesses in his opponent.   

The only way the hogs win is if Darren does what Cobbs couldn't do back in 2000, pack Nutt's inept offense on his back and put forth one herculean effort.

No pig shaded glasses here.  Their O-Line is not what you think it is.  Think back to last year, when they couldn't clear enough space for Ken Darby to get more than 2 yards a pop.  Then think to the year before, when a senior dominated Alabama O-line allowed Darby to rush for over 1,000 yards.  Granted, it is possible that they could have improved since last year.  However, seeing average or below Vanderbilt players in the Alabama backfield quite often leads me to believe they haven't improved all that much, if at all. 

ok, well let's see......against us since 2004 Alabama's O-Line has produced:
2004-331 total yards
2005-324 total yards
2006-411 total yards
2007-YTD so far they average 473 total yards coming into our game with them.

Their offensive line is obviously doing something right.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 473 yard average, any more than I would the 504 yard average our offense carries into the game.  Both have come against equivalent (and terrible) competition. 

Where did you get your stats for Alabama against Arkansas?  Your numbers are way off compared to what Hogwired has in the official box score for each of those games.

2006:  243 yds passing, 118 rushing, 361 total.
2005:  173 passing, 128 rushing, 301 total.
2004:  57 passing, 271 rushing, 328 total.


The 2006 Tide failed to run the ball against what was at the time a porous Hog run defense.  118 yards on 52 carries is pitiful, especially when you consider that the week before Vanderbilt had torched our defense for 240 rushing yards on only 37 carries.  They were able to pass the ball effectively, mainly when JP Wilson was able to get out of the pocket.  Even with this passing success, the Tide o-line still gave up five sacks.  All in all, it wasn't a good performance for the Alabama offensive line at all.

Dirk, my stats came directly from the NCAA and I trust them a whole lot more than Hogwired. Like last year, 243 yds passing and 168 yds rushing = 411 total yds. I don;t see how that is off. In 2005 151 rushing and 173 passing = 324 yds. In 2004 57 rushing and 274 passing = 331 yds. Simple. And I hardly think that hitting us for 168 yds rushing last year could be called us shutting them down.

Sorry, but I watched the game last year and there's no way in hell they ran for 168 net yards. 

Actually, after checking the Alabama website I see where you got your numbers.  Yours don't subtract lost yardage plays.  Last year Alabama did run for 168 yards, but they lost 50 as well for a net of 118. 

http://www.rolltide.com/fls/8000/files/football/2006/bama04.htm

Yeah, I understand, I was at the game last year as well. The yardage you speak of included 6 sacks for a -38 yards. So yeah, you'd be right about that -50 yards. I was just looking at the gross rushing yards the same as I have done for Arkansas or anyone elses stats I have included, so it wasn't like it was an unfair comparison.

Didn't think it was unfair.  Just incomplete.  In fact it was a pretty thorough analysis, even if I don't agree with some of it.  Nobody said we all have to agree around here.  We can leave that for HI and Rivals.

[mcclintock126]

Our players have a lot of character and good skills but I'm worried that they aren't coached well enough. We will win if Nutt-schlong and his second tier sidekicks don't get out coached in the trenches.

[stnsnptrck]

No one thought Michigan would be 0-2 to start the season off; when going on Michigan's history..yet there they are....0-2 at THE BIG HOUSE.

Arkansas CAN beat Bama, regardlesss of historical data.

Razorbacks 31   Tide 21

OK, I hope they do, but what do you base that on? I used facts. You are using what? D-Mac? F-Jo? Great, great backs........probably the best RB tandem ever in the history of Arkansas. Maybe two of the best in the history of NCAA football. But beyond that, what do you use to make that projection........using facts? I hope you are right, I truly do, but history is without a doubt, against us.

yes you did use facts.  Historical facts.  Good thing for us though, is that past history will not affect THIS game.   It will start out 0-0 just like all the others.  They won't be spotted points because Nutt is 0-2 agains Saban away from home, or any other reason you stated.  Hogs win by 10+ because Alabama's defense can not and will not stop our run game.  8 men in the box is not enough.  Teams did it all last year and it doesn't work. 

[stnsnptrck]

Our players have a lot of character and good skills but I'm worried that they aren't coached well enough. We will win if Nutt-schlong and his second tier sidekicks don't get out coached in the trenches.

Either he sucks at coaching or he sucks at recruiting.  Do we have better players than them or do we have better coaches?  If it's neither, then we shouldn't win, right?  If we win, many on here will say it was because of our players (D-Mac, Felix, etc.) but if we lose, it will be because our coaches suck.  You can't have it both ways. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

No one thought Michigan would be 0-2 to start the season off; when going on Michigan's history..yet there they are....0-2 at THE BIG HOUSE.

Arkansas CAN beat Bama, regardlesss of historical data.

Razorbacks 31   Tide 21

OK, I hope they do, but what do you base that on? I used facts. You are using what? D-Mac? F-Jo? Great, great backs........probably the best RB tandem ever in the history of Arkansas. Maybe two of the best in the history of NCAA football. But beyond that, what do you use to make that projection........using facts? I hope you are right, I truly do, but history is without a doubt, against us.

yes you did use facts.  Historical facts.  Good thing for us though, is that past history will not affect THIS game.   It will start out 0-0 just like all the others.  They won't be spotted points because Nutt is 0-2 agains Saban away from home, or any other reason you stated.  Hogs win by 10+ because Alabama's defense can not and will not stop our run game.  8 men in the box is not enough.  Teams did it all last year and it doesn't work. 

Well, actually, what you say isn't true. Tendencies derived from historical fact are not only a great predictor of what a team will do, but it is used every week by DC's all over the country in down and distance and field position situations. What I have presented here, is just a simplified version based on what an entire team has done. You don't have to agree, many don't, but it still has merit nonetheless. And you are also wrong that no one could slow down or stop or rushing game last year. See Mississippi State(MSU?) and Florida......they held us to 146 yds rushing and 138 yards rushing respectively. Believe it or not, even with the great O-Line we had last year(which is tons better than we have this year), it can be done. You can be a "homer" and say whatever you want. I want the Hogs to win as well, I just choose to look at the facts.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Our players have a lot of character and good skills but I'm worried that they aren't coached well enough. We will win if Nutt-schlong and his second tier sidekicks don't get out coached in the trenches.

Either he sucks at coaching or he sucks at recruiting.  Do we have better players than them or do we have better coaches?  If it's neither, then we shouldn't win, right?  If we win, many on here will say it was because of our players (D-Mac, Felix, etc.) but if we lose, it will be because our coaches suck.  You can't have it both ways. 

Wrong, he sucks at both.

[biggiepiggie]

Since 2007 Arkansas is undefeated in games played at Alabama.  

Based on recent history I feel pretty confident going into Saturday's game..

j/k

there is no future in the past....I think the players will decide the game not what other Alabama teams did years before.  If we could get points for games we played years ago I'm sure Bama would win based on all their national championships...

This IS 2007 and we haven't played any games in Alabama yet.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Since 2007 Arkansas is undefeated in games played at Alabama.  

Based on recent history I feel pretty confident going into Saturday's game..

j/k

there is no future in the past....I think the players will decide the game not what other Alabama teams did years before.  If we could get points for games we played years ago I'm sure Bama would win based on all their national championships...

This IS 2007 and we haven't played any games in Alabama yet.

Perfectly simplistic reasoning to ignore history and the obvious. I hope all you guys are right and we completely derail them. Still, we can learn from the past regardless of what anyone says.

[Hogginitall]

Since 2007 Arkansas is undefeated in games played at Alabama.  

Based on recent history I feel pretty confident going into Saturday's game..

j/k

there is no future in the past....I think the players will decide the game not what other Alabama teams did years before.  If we could get points for games we played years ago I'm sure Bama would win based on all their national championships...

This IS 2007 and we haven't played any games in Alabama yet.

Exactly.  Thus, we are undefeated in games played in Alabama.

[Hogginitall]

No one thought Michigan would be 0-2 to start the season off; when going on Michigan's history..yet there they are....0-2 at THE BIG HOUSE.

Arkansas CAN beat Bama, regardlesss of historical data.

Razorbacks 31   Tide 21

OK, I hope they do, but what do you base that on? I used facts. You are using what? D-Mac? F-Jo? Great, great backs........probably the best RB tandem ever in the history of Arkansas. Maybe two of the best in the history of NCAA football. But beyond that, what do you use to make that projection........using facts? I hope you are right, I truly do, but history is without a doubt, against us.

yes you did use facts.  Historical facts.  Good thing for us though, is that past history will not affect THIS game.   It will start out 0-0 just like all the others.  They won't be spotted points because Nutt is 0-2 agains Saban away from home, or any other reason you stated.  Hogs win by 10+ because Alabama's defense can not and will not stop our run game.  8 men in the box is not enough.  Teams did it all last year and it doesn't work. 

Well, actually, what you say isn't true. Tendencies derived from historical fact are not only a great predictor of what a team will do, but it is used every week by DC's all over the country in down and distance and field position situations. What I have presented here, is just a simplified version based on what an entire team has done. You don't have to agree, many don't, but it still has merit nonetheless. And you are also wrong that no one could slow down or stop or rushing game last year. See Mississippi State(MSU?) and Florida......they held us to 146 yds rushing and 138 yards rushing respectively. Believe it or not, even with the great O-Line we had last year(which is tons better than we have this year), it can be done. You can be a "homer" and say whatever you want. I want the Hogs to win as well, I just choose to look at the facts.

Since joining the SEC, Arkansas is 2-1 @Tuscaloosa in years following a coaching change for Alabama.  I like our chances, due to the facts of course!