Dance Card has Arkansas IN the NCAAT!!! (update: all but the last game tonight )

[Hogtropolis™]

Accuracy and Performance of the Dance Card

The Dance Card has never missed on more than three spots in any season.  Over the last 13 years, the Dance Card has correctly predicted 416 of the 444 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93.7%).  Over the 7-year period (2000 through 2006) for which the Dance Card has been used since its initial development in 1999 (based on 1994 through 1999 data), it has correctly predicted 224 out of the 239 available at-large Tournament slots (93.7%).

The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicting 33 of the 34 available at-large Tournament slots (or 97% accuracy).

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria.  The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.

The Dance Card has Arkansas as the last team in.  A win tomorrow would probably seal the deal.

Click here to view the Dance Card.

[Adam Stokes]

  Our RPI will be in the range of 35-40 depending which site you go to because the margin between the teams is so small.  A win tomorrow would stick us up around 34.  If that happened there would be no way the committee couldn't put us in.  If we are wanting to win the tourny than we want OleMiss to beat Florida tomorrow, but if we lose to Ole Miss in the finals our RPI will take a beating.  I'd prefer to play Florida in the finals because a loss to them wouldn't look as bad and a win would stick us in a 6 or 7 seed.  Not sure how things will shape up.

[Hogtropolis™]

Nice find!

Thanks, but I can't take credit for it.  Bomis had a post with this link in it a few days ago.  Hopefully they get it right this year.

[Hogtropolis™]

  Our RPI will be in the range of 35-40 depending which site you go to because the margin between the teams is so small.  A win tomorrow would stick us up around 34.  If that happened there would be no way the committee couldn't put us in.  If we are wanting to win the tourny than we want OleMiss to beat Florida tomorrow, but if we lose to Ole Miss in the finals our RPI will take a beating.  I'd prefer to play Florida in the finals because a loss to them wouldn't look as bad and a win would stick us in a 6 or 7 seed.  Not sure how things will shape up.

A loss to Ole Miss and we won't be in the tourney if you ask me.  Ole Miss would end up being the only team they take from the SECW.  I just don't see 2 teams from the SECW making it.  Florida NEEDS to beat Ole Miss tomorrow.

[Razorback88]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

[Hogpuddin]

Nice find!

Thanks, but I can't take credit for it.  Bomis had a post with this link in it a few days ago.  Hopefully they get it right this year.

Good work for both of you.  Let's hope that their percentage goes up this year.

[WBChogfan]

We need the following:

1) A win tomorrow
2) An Ole Miss loss tomorrow or a Hog win in the finals

[Hogtropolis™]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

I agree.  With a loss, we will for sure drop out of that.  We HAVE to win tomorrow.

[Hogpuddin]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

I agree.  With a loss, we will for sure drop out of that.  We HAVE to win tomorrow.

So you don't believe that we have a chance to make the tournament if we don't win tomorrow?

[Adam Stokes]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

I agree.  With a loss, we will for sure drop out of that.  We HAVE to win tomorrow.

So you don't believe that we have a chance to make the tournament if we don't win tomorrow?

  There are more bubble teams with legit resumes this year than in past years.  I don't think a loss tomorrow would get us in, it would shoot our RPI to the low 40's, and give us a 9-10 SEC record.  But who really knows at this point?!?!

[Razorback88]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

I agree.  With a loss, we will for sure drop out of that.  We HAVE to win tomorrow.

So you don't believe that we have a chance to make the tournament if we don't win tomorrow?

No.  Too many upsets have happened to take away bubble spots (Nevada, Xavier, Butler, Air Force)
I think tomorrow is a play-in game for us and Miss St, assuming Florida takes care of business.

[Hogpuddin]

I don't think it matters that we're in right now; we still have to beat Mississippi State or all the numbers will drop.  It's nice to see us in for a change though!

I agree.  With a loss, we will for sure drop out of that.  We HAVE to win tomorrow.

So you don't believe that we have a chance to make the tournament if we don't win tomorrow?

No.  Too many upsets have happened to take away bubble spots (Nevada, Xavier, Butler, Air Force)

That is what is killing us right there.

[TheHogsAreGood]

  Our RPI will be in the range of 35-40 depending which site you go to because the margin between the teams is so small.  A win tomorrow would stick us up around 34.  If that happened there would be no way the committee couldn't put us in.  If we are wanting to win the tourny than we want OleMiss to beat Florida tomorrow, but if we lose to Ole Miss in the finals our RPI will take a beating.  I'd prefer to play Florida in the finals because a loss to them wouldn't look as bad and a win would stick us in a 6 or 7 seed.  Not sure how things will shape up.

A loss to Ole Miss and we won't be in the tourney if you ask me.  Ole Miss would end up being the only team they take from the SECW.  I just don't see 2 teams from the SECW making it.  Florida NEEDS to beat Ole Miss tomorrow.

Why don't yall have confidence in us to beat Ole Miss.  We beat South Carolina by 30(not much but a 30 point win is pretty impressive), Vandy in a sloppy game.  We beat MS St. when emotions were flying.  We can beat ole miss.  i think we can beat florida. We have some serious Mo' and and florida doesnt exactly have that much.

[TheHogsAreGood]

We need the following:

1) A win tomorrow
2) An Ole Miss loss tomorrow or a Hog win in the finals

Has anyone ever told you, you are Excellent at stating the obvious

[hawgfan80]

  Our RPI will be in the range of 35-40 depending which site you go to because the margin between the teams is so small.  A win tomorrow would stick us up around 34.  If that happened there would be no way the committee couldn't put us in.  If we are wanting to win the tourny than we want OleMiss to beat Florida tomorrow, but if we lose to Ole Miss in the finals our RPI will take a beating.  I'd prefer to play Florida in the finals because a loss to them wouldn't look as bad and a win would stick us in a 6 or 7 seed.  Not sure how things will shape up.

A loss to Ole Miss and we won't be in the tourney if you ask me.  Ole Miss would end up being the only team they take from the SECW.  I just don't see 2 teams from the SECW making it.  Florida NEEDS to beat Ole Miss tomorrow.

Why don't yall have confidence in us to beat Ole Miss.  We beat South Carolina by 30(not much but a 30 point win is pretty impressive), Vandy in a sloppy game.  We beat MS St. when emotions were flying.  We can beat ole miss.  i think we can beat florida. We have some serious Mo' and and florida doesnt exactly have that much.

Florida just has the players that won the national championship last year. Oh, and the SEC regular season this year. They also beat #1 ranked Ohio St. Yeah, they don't have much.

[WBChogfan]

We need the following:

1) A win tomorrow
2) An Ole Miss loss tomorrow or a Hog win in the finals

Has anyone ever told you, you are Excellent at stating the obvious

Pray tell, good sir, what is so obvious about the statement when some are asking whether 2 SECT wins is sufficient?

[riccoar]

Tomorrow's winner between us and Miss. St. will get the 5th and final spot.  Fla, Vandy, Tenn, and Kentucky are already in.

[PiggoBitttys]

If we're the last team in today, if we lose tomorrow we're out. I thought we might be able to get by without winning tomorrow, but I think we have to win it now.

[Hogtropolis™]

Tomorrow's winner between us and Miss. St. will get the 5th and final spot.  Fla, Vandy, Tenn, and Kentucky are already in.

Why do people keep saying this.  If we win we will be in if Florida beats Ole Miss.  If MSU wins, they will need win the whole thing to get in whether it is against Ole Miss or Florida, because if they lose in the championship game they will finish the season with a 19-13 record with an RPI in the 50's (which won't get them in).  Also if Ole Miss wins against Florida they are right there along with MSU/Arkansas as the the team from the West to get in the NCAAT and the championship game will become a winner gets in, loser gets an NIT berth.

[riccoar]

I'm just saying that based on my belief that Ole Miss has no chance.  Arkansas is the only team left out of the three that match up well enough to give Florida a game.

[Hogtropolis™]

I'm just saying that based on my belief that Ole Miss has no chance.  Arkansas is the only team left out of the three that match up well enough to give Florida a game.

You are probably right, and IMO, it will also be in our best intrest for Florida to win.

[LJHOG]

Well for what it's worth, I think the Hogs are in win or lose against MSU.  The team that's really in trouble is Tenn.  But then again, I don't know much about this stuff.

[dotnet]

Well for what it's worth, I think the Hogs are in win or lose against MSU.  The team that's really in trouble is Tenn.  But then again, I don't know much about this stuff.

I don't think this is right. 

What scares me about those projections are that they have Indiana out, and Indiana will be in the tournament.

[JMartin_AF1]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

[SPAL]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

[hog.goblin]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

They won their conference tournament and have the automatic bid secured.

[jry04]

Well for what it's worth, I think the Hogs are in win or lose against MSU.  The team that's really in trouble is Tenn.  But then again, I don't know much about this stuff.

I don't think this is right. 

What scares me about those projections are that they have Indiana out, and Indiana will be in the tournament.

Their resume isn't that great. Don't they only have 20 wins and not any real big quality ones? I just saw like 3 people on ESPN all say Illinois is out despite having 23 wins and a decent RPI. They said they don't have very many good wins and that it will come down to Purdue or Illinois and Purdue won their match-up earlier this season so they Illinois will probably be out along with Indiana.

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

Yes, they beat Bucknell for their championship.

[Hogpuddin]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

They won their conference tournament and have the automatic bid secured.

Does Bucknell look as if they will get in?  I've heard different opinions, now I want yours.

[Hogtropolis™]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

They won their conference tournament and have the automatic bid secured.

Does Bucknell look as if they will get in?  I've heard different opinions, now I want yours.

No way Bucknell gets in.  They have an RPI of like 93.

[hog.goblin]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

They won their conference tournament and have the automatic bid secured.

Does Bucknell look as if they will get in?  I've heard different opinions, now I want yours.

No way Bucknell gets in.  They have an RPI of like 93.

I agree, they should not.  They lost to UCA earlier in the year.  But they did beat Xavier and won 17 of their last 19 games (both losses against Holy Cross).  It's very doubtful they get in, but you can't bet on anything with the selection committee.

[SPAL]

folks, winning your conf tourney gives you an automatic bid, not an at large.

[Hogpuddin]

They have Holy Cross on the bubble. Didn't they earn an at large bid?

no team has an at large bid at this point.

They won their conference tournament and have the automatic bid secured.

Does Bucknell look as if they will get in?  I've heard different opinions, now I want yours.

No way Bucknell gets in.  They have an RPI of like 93.

I agree, they should not.  They lost to UCA earlier in the year.  But they did beat Xavier and won 17 of their last 19 games (both losses against Holy Cross).  It's very doubtful they get in, but you can't bet on anything with the selection committee.

So that explains some of the talk about them possibly getting in. 

I'll be honest, I haven't kept up with Bucknell at all.  The reason:  Everytime I hear or see that word (Bucknell) I cringe and regurgitate.

[Hawgvillain]

Tomorrow's winner between us and Miss. St. will get the 5th and final spot.  Fla, Vandy, Tenn, and Kentucky are already in.

I don't understand why Vandy is a lock...we have the same wins, a better RPI, a better SOS, and we beat them twice heads up.  The only thing that they did is play better in the SEC regular season.  Is that one factor more important than all those other factors?  It's stupid.

[Hogtropolis™]

The Dance Card now has 4 teams below us that are in.  Or in other words, we are the 5th from last bubble team according to them.  GO HOGS!

[whatsshakinbacon]

The Dance Card now has 4 teams below us that are in.  Or in other words, we are the 5th from last bubble team according to them.  GO HOGS!

Hogtropolis - does it have a seeding for us yet?  I'm saying 12 but have many telling me we'll be higher...I don't think so.

Bacon out...

[Adam Stokes]

  Indiana is supposed to be a lock and this guy doesn't even have them in his Last four out.  Drexel is supposed to be close but they are twenty spots away from the line, interesting take on the tourny, we'll see how many picks this site gets compared to others.

[Hogtropolis™]

The Dance Card now has 4 teams below us that are in.  Or in other words, we are the 5th from last bubble team according to them.  GO HOGS!

Hogtropolis - does it have a seeding for us yet?  I'm saying 12 but have many telling me we'll be higher...I don't think so.

Bacon out...

From what I can tell, this particular website doesn't have an actual bracket.  Just teams that will get in and teams that won't.  IMO, if we lose tomorrow and get in we will be an 11 seed.

[Tomhog™]

The Dance Card now has 4 teams below us that are in.  Or in other words, we are the 5th from last bubble team according to them.  GO HOGS!

Hogtropolis - does it have a seeding for us yet?  I'm saying 12 but have many telling me we'll be higher...I don't think so.

Bacon out...

From the looks of it, they predict us to be an 11 seed since 13-16 seeds are the automatic bids from small conferences.  We are about 6 from the bottom, or about an 11 seed.  I figure we'll end up with a 10 when all said and done...

[Hollywood_HOGan]

how in the world do they not have Indiana in?

they beat wisconsin

[Tomhog™]

considering this site is 94% accurate as far as at-large bids, that's pretty good odds that Arkansas is in...

[Hogtropolis™]

how in the world do they not have Indiana in?

they beat wisconsin

So did Missouri St., but they are not a lock.  I think that Indiana will be in though.  For each one they miss on leaving out, they will also have to miss on putting one in.  I just hope Arkansas is not the one paired up with Indiana in that miss.

[Hollywood_HOGan]

considering this site is 94% accurate as far as at-large bids, that's pretty good odds that Arkansas is in...

them having Indiana off though is pretty scary.

Doesnt make me feel anymore confident after hearing Joe LuTardi and these other websites.

Nobody except this site has Arkansas in.

[Lady Hawg Buff]

Florida vs Arkansas...NO DOUBT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[BigEasy]

I predict we will not get an at-large bid for a simple reason: we don't want one.  It's wildly speculated that the administration wants to fire Heath to take the pressure off Nutt, which it cannot do with a tourney berth.  Leaving the Hogs out and keeping in another team makes two schools happy, so the Committee is all the more likely to take that route.

[Hollywood_HOGan]

I predict we will not get an at-large bid for a simple reason: we don't want one.  It's wildly speculated that the administration wants to fire Heath to take the pressure off Nutt, which it cannot do with a tourney berth.  Leaving the Hogs out and keeping in another team makes two schools happy, so the Committee is all the more likely to take that route.

as crazy as that sounds, i wouldnt be surprised if that was actually the case.

[501Ben]

They have our RPI as 31.

[Bomis Hawg]

This site is updated FOR TODAY.
I think their track record is solid.

[spankinbacon]

Just looking at the numbers that would put Florida in as a 2 seed (I am ok with that), Kentucky a 3  seed (way too high imo), Tennessee a 5 seed (about right), Vandy a 9 and Arkansas a 10.  Arkansas has a hugher RPI than Vandy, stronger strength of schedule, have finished stronger, especially considering that two of the Hogs wins over the past two weeks have been against the Commodores.  Give US the nine seed.

[whatsshakinbacon]

Just looking at the numbers that would put Florida in as a 2 seed (I am ok with that), Kentucky a 3  seed (way too high imo), Tennessee a 5 seed (about right), Vandy a 9 and Arkansas a 10.  Arkansas has a hugher RPI than Vandy, stronger strength of schedule, have finished stronger, especially considering that two of the Hogs wins over the past two weeks have been against the Commodores.  Give US the nine seed.

I'd rather be a 10 seed than a 9 seed.

Bacon out...

[Hogtropolis™]

We are now sitting at 37th and the last team in is at 44th.  Looking pretty good.