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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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widespreadsooie

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 26, 2013, 07:58:11 am
Widespread's ULM -12 is looking pretty sweet right now. The line is now up to -14.5.

So glad I pulled the trigger when I did. At 15.5 on my book. I actually ended up getting better lines on all my games than what they are at now. Except for BG, still sitting at 4. That's some luck I'm not used too. I'll actually be in attendance for the KSU/WVU game, let's go Cats! Got to look into PSU now as it's a dime play for Jeff.

McHogLovin

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 26, 2013, 12:45:47 pm
Is Okie St gonna stick it in my pooper again this week?

Okie State has really struggled punching it into the endzone after getting into the redzone every time I have watched em

 

WILL CLINTON

Ball St is worrying me. I like the 18 point cushion, but I don't want to see a backdoor cover so i want them to start pouring it on.

Looks like I may have been wrong on Georgia Tech. 4 turnovers in the first half.

Also, Espn3 on xbox is BOSS.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on October 26, 2013, 01:16:05 pm
Ball St is worrying me. I like the 18 point cushion, but I don't want to see a backdoor cover so i want them to start pouring it on.

Looks like I may have been wrong on Georgia Tech. 4 turnovers in the first half.

Also, Espn3 on xbox is BOSS.


You should always fear the Akron Zips Will.  Hope it works out for you though!
Let's make some waves.

yraciv

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 26, 2013, 01:18:33 pm
Here comes northwestern!

Pat Fitzgerald hates Iowa. I heard this week that some hit from them basically ruined his college career. Northwestern has had their number in recent years. Hope they hold them here!

Hawgndaaz

So I drank too much last night and my friends wife gave me their golden doodle puppy. Random I know. Awesome dog though haha.

yraciv

Typical! If there is a coin flip it ain't going my way.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: yraciv on October 26, 2013, 01:35:29 pm
Pat Fitzgerald hates Iowa. I heard this week that some hit from them basically ruined his college career. Northwestern has had their number in recent years. Hope they hold them here!

Worst kind of loss on a bet. Tied 10-10 Iowa in field goal range late in fourth. I'm getting 4 with northwestern. Iowa turns it over then wins by 7 in OT dang it it hate that.
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

I've added:

SC +3 1*
SC ML  2*
Oklahoma -7  1*
Penn St +16  1*

All of these are based on the Bookie who posts his needs based on what the public is betting
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

Been fun tailing several of you guys today. In the positive so far. I do appreciate all you guys sharing your picks!

widespreadsooie

K State game was awesome. Had moms fooled into thinking I was a fan haha.

Spikes

You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

 

WILL CLINTON

2 halftime bets I forgot to post


Straight Wager   10/26/13 16:13 ET   
Share on twitterShare on facebook
Result: Wager Won
NCAAF 2nd Half Lines (OT included)
Bowling Green -3 (-105)
Toledo 7   
Bowling Green 18    10/26/13(17:00 ET)


Straight Wager   10/26/13 18:34 ET   
Share on twitterShare on facebook
Result: Wager Won
2TexasTech +3 (-115)
2TexasTech 23   
2Oklahoma 24    10/26/13(19:30 ET)
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 26, 2013, 01:22:55 pm

You should always fear the Akron Zips Will.  Hope it works out for you though!

it did ok...8)

Muskogee, looks like you had the inside feel on the UCLA game. Doesn't look like this will be anywhere close to a 14 point win, much less 23.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on October 26, 2013, 07:32:12 pm
it did ok...8)

Muskogee, looks like you had the inside feel on the UCLA game. Doesn't look like this will be anywhere close to a 14 point win, much less 23.


Congrats on the win, but beware of the Zips :)
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

WWWWOOOOOOOHHHHHOOOOO   DDDUUUCCCKKKSSS

Love a backdoor cover in my favor. Oregon has the cahones to score with less than 2:30 on the clock up by 21...gotta love'em...

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 26, 2013, 09:03:40 pm
Wow blew that one it appears. Sorry guys

It's just halftime, I just hedged my bets with a Penn St +7 Halftime line  1*

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Never thought i'd say this, but

How bout them cocks??!!
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

dont know if thest have started yet as I am at work, but I added

hawaii +1.5  1*
Washington St  -28  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

widespreadsooie

What a surprise from Oregon and UCLA. Any of y'all think FSU is the best team in the nation. I'm beginning to think they would own Bama.

yraciv

Quote from: widespreadsooie on October 26, 2013, 11:59:29 pm
What a surprise from Oregon and UCLA. Any of y'all think FSU is the best team in the nation. I'm beginning to think they would own Bama.

Nah! Bama has been naming their score for a couple weeks. Their only weakness all season has been Johnny Maziel, so that is acceptable.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on October 26, 2013, 07:32:12 pm
it did ok...8)

Muskogee, looks like you had the inside feel on the UCLA game. Doesn't look like this will be anywhere close to a 14 point win, much less 23.


Yeah....not so much....those doggone Ducks.

Four words sum up my Saturday..."Screwed, Blued and Tattoed". OY!  :puke:
Go Hogs Go!

 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Not seeing a ton I love today.
Jets +6
New Orleans -11
Miami +6
K.C -7

All two unit plays.

Steelers -2 dime play.  Please keep in mind I am a huge steelers fan. Don't think it's clouding my judgement in this one, but just saying.


Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Another great weekend.  The system that looked too good to be true STILL looks too good to be true after two weeks of testing.  I went 8-3-1 on straight bets for +24 units (before juice) and 10-0 on 2-team parlays (including 4 w/ a push so paid like a straight win) for +9.6 units (after juice) for a +33.6 unit weekend.  That puts me at 41-25-2 (62%) on straight plays and 20-10 (67%) on parlays for +40.7 on the year.  Now that there's enough data for nice sample sizes and I've stumbled across some promising angles and trends, I hope/think the last few weeks of the season will be fun and profitable.

________________________________

ULL -2.5 @ Ark St.  4 units  W
Rice -17 v. UTEP  5 units W
Houston +7 @ Rutgers  5 units  W
N. TX -10 @ Southern Miss 4 units  W
Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia  5 units W & P (4 unit W at -9.5, 1 unit Push at -10)
Ball St. -10 @ Akron  4 units W
Bowling Green -3 v. Toledo  4 units  L

I have small 2-team parlays for the following teams for a total of 5 units:
ULL -2.5   W
Rice -17  W
Houston +7 W
N. TX -10  W
Georgia Tech -10 Push
-----------------
also added:
Penn St. +15.5 2 units L
Nevada -6.5 2 units L
Colo St. -1.5 2 units W
Ariz -12.5 2 units W
__________________

Once again, the plays added after my initial cut under-performed.  If I add late plays next week, someone please kick me (unless it's to tail one of Jeff's dime plays).  Also, friggin Bowling Green had the spread covered until Toledo converted a 4th and 9 from the 10 for a TD with 1:22 left in the game.  SO close. 

With another week of data and another week working on this promising new angle, it's about to get VERY good! 

MuskogeeHogFan

An early look at the Auburn game tells me that after a bye week, we may lose this game 38-20 with a 58 total. I hate saying that about MY team, but reality is what it is. Your thoughts on where it opens?
Go Hogs Go!

Spikes

-$115 from yesterday. Down about $200 on the week.  No biggie.. Lets get it back today


Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (buy half point to -5) 1 star

Detroit Lions -3 over the Cowboys 2 star


Bills +11 2 star

Miami +7   1 star

Good luck guys


You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

camelt


Spikes

You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Shaking my head. Worst day I have had in recent memory!
Let's make some waves.

Spikes

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 27, 2013, 06:41:41 pm
Shaking my head. Worst day I have had in recent memory!
\

Me as well..

Going with Minn +7.5, buying the half pt!! 1 star.
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

WILL CLINTON

Oregon -23   2*  W +$35
Duke +13½  2*  W +$35
Ball State -10½  3*  W +$71
Utah +6½ 1*  L -$19
Utah +7  1*  L -$19
Bowling Green -4 2*  L -$38
South Carolina +135 1*  W +$18
South Carolina +3  1*  W +$18
Georgia Tech -10 2*  Push
Ball State -9½ 1*  W +$18
Oregon State +4½  2*  L -$38
SC +3 1*  W +$18
SC ML  2*  W +$35
Oklahoma -7  1*  W +$18
Penn St +16  1*  L -$18
2hBowling Green -3  1*  W +$18
2TexasTech +3  1*  W +$18
hawaii +1.5  1*  L -$19
Washington St  -28  1*  L -$19

Weekly Record:
11-7-1 (58%)

Overall Record:
47-56-5 (44%)  $485  -84% ROI

Not a bad week. Wish I wouldn't have got on those Hawaii and Wash st games, but overall I feel good about my leans, and who I follow and tail on here and therx.

Glanced at next weeks lines, but haven't seen anything that jumps off the page at me. I'm sure there will be plenty by the weekend.

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hillbilly Hawg

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 27, 2013, 09:18:22 am
Another great weekend.  The system that looked too good to be true STILL looks too good to be true after two weeks of testing.  I went 8-3-1 on straight bets for +24 units (before juice) and 10-0 on 2-team parlays (including 4 w/ a push so paid like a straight win) for +9.6 units (after juice) for a +33.6 unit weekend.  That puts me at 41-25-2 (62%) on straight plays and 20-10 (67%) on parlays for +40.7 on the year.  Now that there's enough data for nice sample sizes and I've stumbled across some promising angles and trends, I hope/think the last few weeks of the season will be fun and profitable.

I'm a noob to the betting game but wanted to thank everyone and especially DadVader1 for his info as I piggy backed his initial picks this week and then added a few of my own to have the best week I have ever had going 13 of 14 with one push!

Parlay #1:
Ball St. -9 W
Houston +7 W
North Texas-10 W

Parlay #2
Ga Tech -10 P
Mich St. -9.5 W
Rice -17 W

Parlay #3
Duke +14 W
ULM -14 W
Minnesota +10 W

Parlay #4
BYU -7 W
St. Louis Cardinals  to Win Game 3 (MLB)  W
Sporting KC to Win vs Philly Union (MLS)  W

Parlay #5
Portland Timbers over Chivas USA (MLS) W
Houston over DC United (MLS)  W
Chicago over New York (MLS)  L- (I shouldn't have bet this game as I was betting with my heart as a Sporting KC fan and not my brain...I know, I know, that is the first rule of gambling!)



I follow this thread throughout the year and just wanted to say thank you to all who post their picks on here and for the work you do especially DadVader1....thanks again!

"You're not your job. You're not how much money you have in the bank. You're not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You're not your f****** khakis. You're the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world."        -Tyler Durden

DadVader1

You're very welcome, and Good Job on your other picks too!  This is year 4 for me, so I probably still qualify as a noob too.  Most of what I know about football gaming, I learned in this thread, so I'm glad to be able to give back.  I'm good at crunching numbers but have very little experience in this area, so I'm VERY grateful that the seasoned veterans in this thread are so helpful and willing to share their experience and wisdom. 

When I started tinkering with the spreadsheets, I basically took the Edison approach - I found a few thousand ways that didn't work for picking football games.  Luckily, I could test them on the spreadsheet instead of with my money.  I've only tested my newest twist for two weeks now, so it may eventually go into the list of ways that don't work, but for now I'm optimistic that I've found one way that works pretty well.  One caveat, it's not well suited for picking one particular game and is better suited for hitting a nice percentage on 5 or 6 games per weekend, so I recommend against loading up on any one game based on spreadsheet picks.

Hawgndaaz

MNF line looks goofy.

seahawks up to -13 from -11.5 yesterday

o/u 43.5

and if the rams really did reach out to favre to play this week, things must be really bad lol.

Spikes

St. Louis Cardinals -126 over the Boston Red Sox   (MLB Baseball 2 star


St. Louis Rams +13½ over the Seattle Seahawks (NFL Football) 3 star

Dallas Stars -132  over the Buffalo Sabres (NHL Hockey) 3 star

Washington Capitals +135 NHL 1 star

Pitt -170 over Carolina NHL 1 star

Last week is over, here is to the new week!!! Let all collect some money!!!
You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

WILL CLINTON

Leans;

Oregon St -5.5
VTech -4.5
N Illinois -23.5
GTech -10
Miami +22

Not a whole lot out there. I'm sure this list will grow and possibly double by this weekend, but these are the only ones I feel confident enough to post so far. Looking forward to what Vader's spreadsheets say.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

I can't find a reason not to bet against the hogs :(

DadVader1

I'm still waiting on a few key ranking systems for a complete picture.  So far, the few that are jumping out are:

Aub -8 @ Ark
Minn +10 @ Indiana
AZ St. -11.5 @ Wash St.
Rice +4.5 @ N. TX

I need a few more systems to post their data before rounding out the list with 2 or 3 more teams.  On Will's leans, Va Tech & NIU both show up in a few positive trends, but not enough of them yet to make a decision.  I'm hoping they show up in a few more once a few more of the remaining systems post their data.  On tonight's game, the top systems are about evenly divided between Cincy & Memphis, so I plan on passing on that one. 

widespreadsooie

I'll be posting records and leans tonight. Like Rice though, Vader...like um uh lot.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I  very skeptical about posting my football plays in here guys. 

When I say 2 units I mean it. When I say dime play I mean it.

I have been building my bankroll for gambling over 20 years . When I have a horrible week I care, but it doesn't hurt because I know at years end I come out ahead. 

I feel like often times people follow my bets and bet what they can.  I don't want to lose anyone money.  You have to be in position to follow every play every week for the same units ( whatever your unit may be)

I don't want anyone or their family to suffer because of me. Of course you shouldn't be betting that money anyway.

Just saying.
Let's make some waves.

DadVader1

Don't sweat posting your picks.  You've taught so many of us about proper bankroll management and other techniques that you're definitely doing more good than harm!  You don't ask anyone to tail you, and you don't try to talk anyone into making any play.  As long as you're teaching us solid approaches (which you definitely are), you shouldn't feel bad if a few folks ignore your advice and screw up.  We're all adults here.  The folks who are going to screw things up, are going to screw things up with or without your help.   

I have very few folks in my real world circle of friends with whom I can brainstorm and kick around gaming ideas and picks.  It's great to have this online circle of friends with a common goal, brainstorming, debating games, and trying to improve our records ATS.  I value your input, advice, and picks and hope you'll hang in there with us.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 29, 2013, 05:47:00 pm
I  very skeptical about posting my football plays in here guys. 

When I say 2 units I mean it. When I say dime play I mean it.

I have been building my bankroll for gambling over 20 years . When I have a horrible week I care, but it doesn't hurt because I know at years end I come out ahead. 

I feel like often times people follow my bets and bet what they can.  I don't want to lose anyone money.  You have to be in position to follow every play every week for the same units ( whatever your unit may be)

I don't want anyone or their family to suffer because of me. Of course you shouldn't be betting that money anyway.

Just saying.

Just because the Casinos are open, doesn't mean people have to drop little Johnny's college fund, but they still do.

I don't know anyone who has been "hurt" and I definitely hope that no one would gamble with money that is to be used for their family or bills. You are not losing them money just because you put your plays on here. If they are, there is only so much responsibility you can take before it is up to them to take your advice or not.

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 29, 2013, 07:13:53 pm
Don't sweat posting your picks.  You've taught so many of us about proper bankroll management and other techniques that you're definitely doing more good than harm!  You don't ask anyone to tail you, and you don't try to talk anyone into making any play.  As long as you're teaching us solid approaches (which you definitely are), you shouldn't feel bad if a few folks ignore your advice and screw up.  We're all adults here.  The folks who are going to screw things up, are going to screw things up with or without your help.   

I have very few folks in my real world circle of friends with whom I can brainstorm and kick around gaming ideas and picks.  It's great to have this online circle of friends with a common goal, brainstorming, debating games, and trying to improve our records ATS.  I value your input, advice, and picks and hope you'll hang in there with us.

ditto^^
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 29, 2013, 03:55:03 pm
On tonight's game, the top systems are about evenly divided between Cincy & Memphis, so I plan on passing on that one. 

I missed the part where the Tuesday night game is on Wednesday this week.  That is all.

widespreadsooie

Saturday: 4-3 +2u

KSU -11.5...3u...W
ORE o71.5...3u...L
UNT -11.5...2u...W
ULM -12...2u...W
HOU +7...2u...W
AF +20...2u...L
BG -4...2u...L

YTD: 50-42 54% (+9 less juice)
Totals: 18-18 50%
ATS: 31-19-1 62%
Parlay: 1-1
Teases: 0-4

Leans:
BC/VT u41.5
UNI -23.5
Cuse -3
WVU/TCU u45.5
Zona -16
ECU -22.5

I also have a very dumb GOY play on NC St. at a pick. I took it soon after their game against Clemson, guess I was pretty naive there. 4u.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: DadVader1 on October 29, 2013, 03:55:03 pm
I'm still waiting on a few key ranking systems for a complete picture.  So far, the few that are jumping out are:

Aub -8 @ Ark
Minn +10 @ Indiana
AZ St. -11.5 @ Wash St.
Rice +4.5 @ N. TX

I need a few more systems to post their data before rounding out the list with 2 or 3 more teams.  On Will's leans, Va Tech & NIU both show up in a few positive trends, but not enough of them yet to make a decision.  I'm hoping they show up in a few more once a few more of the remaining systems post their data.  On tonight's game, the top systems are about evenly divided between Cincy & Memphis, so I plan on passing on that one. 

Stat for your Minny game. Minnesota avg 215+ yds rushing a game, and Indiana gives up 230+ a game. If they get a lead, Minnesota will run the clock out. Only bad thing is, that gives Indy a chance at a backdoor cover. But I still like it. Don't know why that Rice game didn't jump out at me but I dig it.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

A few notes on rating systems picks to follow.  This is just raw picks data, unfiltered, so don't read too much into it.  These aren't my leans and are more just to help as you screen your leans.

NIU:  Most of the better systems like NIU, but a small number of the better systems pick Mass.
Syracuse:  The better systems are pretty evenly divided between Cuse and WF.
Arizona: Most of the systems like Zona, and it falls in a few nice trends, but a couple of my favorite systems like Cal.
ECU: The overwhelming majority of the systems like ECU.
Ore St.: A small majority of the better systems like Ore St., but that means a fair number of the better systems like USC
VA Tech: VA Tech falls in a few nice trends, but my four favorite systems are split 2-2, VT & BC.
GA Tech: The overwhelming majority of the systems like GT.
Miami: A small majority of the better systems like Miami, but that means a fair number of the better systems like FSU.

DadVader1

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on October 30, 2013, 12:04:21 am
Stat for your Minny game. Minnesota avg 215+ yds rushing a game, and Indiana gives up 230+ a game. If they get a lead, Minnesota will run the clock out. Only bad thing is, that gives Indy a chance at a backdoor cover. But I still like it. Don't know why that Rice game didn't jump out at me but I dig it.

Thanks Will.  Yes, I see that as a strength on weakness match-up (Minn RO v. Ind RD - 23 v. 117)(all of these numbers are rankings) that may help Minn cover +10.  I'm a bit concerned that there is also a strength on weakness match-up with Indiana's PO v. Minn PD (10 v. 74), but I take some comfort in the turnover margin gap (Minn 25 v. Ind 79).  I also have a hard time deciding whether the big win over Neb will lead to a hangover or lead to them believing and building momentum.  Of the filters I could run with the data that's in so far, Minn fell into the most positive trends.

McKdaddy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on October 29, 2013, 05:47:00 pm
I  very skeptical about posting my football plays in here guys. 

When I say 2 units I mean it. When I say dime play I mean it.

I have been building my bankroll for gambling over 20 years . When I have a horrible week I care, but it doesn't hurt because I know at years end I come out ahead. 

I feel like often times people follow my bets and bet what they can.  I don't want to lose anyone money.  You have to be in position to follow every play every week for the same units ( whatever your unit may be)

I don't want anyone or their family to suffer because of me. Of course you shouldn't be betting that money anyway.

Just saying.

Copying your picks has been fine for me this year. My bets are small and can be lost w/out hurting the fam.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin