2017 Pre-Season Sagarin Ratings (Hogs at #16)

[MuskogeeHogFan]

A little more pre-season information and projections to discuss while we await the kick-off.

Hogs come in at #16 behind #1 Alabama, #5 Auburn and #7 LSU.

Also:

A&M-#21
TCU-#26
MSU-#31
Ole Miss-#43
USC-#50
Mizzou-#73

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/team/

[Bacon_Bitz]

Jeff Sagarin has always been my favorite preseason rating.  His is the most reliable by far.  Really, none of the other preseason ratings get it right.  All of the others are FAKE!

[Pig Power]

Wow.. That is a much higher ranking than  I would have imagined..

[Deep Shoat]

I think Auburn is potentially a little high.  LSU, based on their OL situation is absolutely too high.  But that is about where I expect Arkansas to end up.

[Bacon_Bitz]

Sagarin's is the highest of all so far.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Our average rating is 43.  Massey Composite has both computer and human polls but mostly computer.  There's always teams that surprise because these rankings have to be mostly based on past performance.  Like the Hogs in 2015.  I'm sure we waaaay over-performed preseason computer projections that year based on how well we played even in our losses.  Here's hoping for a similar jump this year.  No reason it couldn't happen, but lots of reasons it may not.

Other teams we play in the Massey composite:

1. Alabama
9. LSU
12. Auburn
21. Texas A&M
37. TCU

41. Arkansas

46. Mississippi
51. Mississippi State
61. South Carolina
72. Missouri
108. Coastal Carolina
125. New Mexico State

So to me, the question is can we overachieve enough to knock off TCU and A&M?  One of them gets us to 8-4, two gets us to 9-3 and one lucky/hard fought win away from ten regular season wins.  I think it's possible.

But if you're a pessimist (and you are since you're on Hogville), you look at this rankings and say maybe we are really not all that different from the Mississippi schools, S. Car., and Missouri, and so there are only three guaranteed wins and a lot of potential losses on the schedule.

We'll see.

[nchogg]

What about Florida A&M at 253. Did I write that. Oh no!

[mizzouman]

Jeff Sagarin has always been my favorite preseason rating.  His is the most reliable by far.  Really, none of the other preseason ratings get it right.  All of the others are FAKE!

Sagarin is actually very good but only good after several games.  Preseason ratings are worthless and have no meaning at all relative to what's going to happen this coming year.

[Bacon_Bitz]

Sagarin is actually very good but only good after several games.  Preseason ratings are worthless and have no meaning at all relative to what's going to happen this coming year.

I agree.  All of the preseason ratings, except the ones that have the Hogs highly ranked, are worthless and have no meaning at all.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sagarin is actually very good but only good after several games.  Preseason ratings are worthless and have no meaning at all relative to what's going to happen this coming year.

I really don't disagree with this at all but, I'd bet you would be singing a different tune if Missouri was a projected #16 instead of #73.

Same goes for us, we are ranked pretty low in other pre-season predictors, so I get it.

[mizzouman]

I really don't disagree with this at all but, I'd bet you would be singing a different tune if Missouri was a projected #16 instead of #73.

Same goes for us, we are ranked pretty low in other pre-season predictors, so I get it.

Well, I understand his ratings and if Mizzou was ranked #16, then it would seriously reverse my thought on Sagarin.

That being said, I think he does the best as a predictor but ONLY after about 6 games or so.  His final ratings are very accurate in my opinion.

His preseason ratings are based on the last 60 years of performance of each team putting weight on the last few years.  He also takes into consideration the pre-season polls which are worthless.

Now, does anyone really believe that if Arkansas played Kansas State in Manhattan, that KSU would win more than 50% of the time?  In other words, if you take this pre-season ratings as a predictor for the upcoming season, then KSU is better than Arkansas at KSU.

[GoHogzzGo]

So Sargarin is an analytics guy, which takes all human view point out of this. Which means it is all based on data from last season, and lots of players who no longer play for these teams.

Analytic rankings mean a lot more to me after a few weeks of play when we start to see how this year's teams are performing.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, I understand his ratings and if Mizzou was ranked #16, then it would seriously reverse my thought on Sagarin.

That being said, I think he does the best as a predictor but ONLY after about 6 games or so.  His final ratings are very accurate in my opinion.

His preseason ratings are based on the last 60 years of performance of each team putting weight on the last few years.  He also takes into consideration the pre-season polls which are worthless.

Now, does anyone really believe that if Arkansas played Kansas State in Manhattan, that KSU would win more than 50% of the time?  In other words, if you take this pre-season ratings as a predictor for the upcoming season, then KSU is better than Arkansas at KSU.

Like I said, I get it.

[bphi11ips]

Arkansas has been underrated almost everywhere, but college football preseason rankings have always been almost exclusively about expectations for wins and losses at the end of the year.  This is especially true of voting polls.  Arkansas is projected by most to win 6 or 7 games, hence the ranking in the 30s range in most projections.

Sagarin bases his rankings on the projected strength of the team itself.  He does weigh "tradition" more heavily than other ranking systems.  Who would be crazy enough in this day of advanced analytics to think the future will look much like the past?  Of course South Florida will be one of the best 25 teams in the country in 2017 like they've always been, right?  Everyone has them around 20, but that idiot Sagarin has them at 51.  They'd beat Arkansas 8 times out of 10, right? 

I think Sagarin's poll is the most accurate preseason look I've seen yet at the relative strength of teams.  That doesn't mean it is an accurate look at the final poll, which will be based almost entirely on a team's record, with little thought given to strength of schedule.   

[DeltaBoy]

Hogs at 16 sounds about right for this time of the year.

[mizzouman]

So Sargarin is an analytics guy, which takes all human view point out of this. Which means it is all based on data from last season, and lots of players who no longer play for these teams.

Analytic rankings mean a lot more to me after a few weeks of play when we start to see how this year's teams are performing.

The human view point is only part of his pre-season ratings.  He does take into account the polls, but those go out the window once games start.

[mizzouman]

Arkansas has been underrated almost everywhere, but college football preseason rankings have always been almost exclusively about expectations for wins and losses at the end of the year.  This is especially true of voting polls.  Arkansas is projected by most to win 6 or 7 games, hence the ranking in the 30s range in most projections.

Sagarin bases his rankings on the projected strength of the team itself.  He does weigh "tradition" more heavily than other ranking systems.  Who would be crazy enough in this day of advanced analytics to think the future will look much like the past?  Of course South Florida will be one of the best 25 teams in the country in 2017 like they've always been, right?  Everyone has them around 20, but that idiot Sagarin has them at 51.  They'd beat Arkansas 8 times out of 10, right? 

I think Sagarin's poll is the most accurate preseason look I've seen yet at the relative strength of teams.  That doesn't mean it is an accurate look at the final poll, which will be based almost entirely on a team's record, with little thought given to strength of schedule.   

No, Sargarin is the most accurate after 6 games or so not in the pre-season.

[bphi11ips]

No, Sargarin is the most accurate after 6 games or so not in the pre-season.

As far as you know.

[Pig in the Pokey]

Arkansas has been underrated almost everywhere, but college football preseason rankings have always been almost exclusively about expectations for wins and losses at the end of the year.  This is especially true of voting polls.  Arkansas is projected by most to win 6 or 7 games, hence the ranking in the 30s range in most projections.

Sagarin bases his rankings on the projected strength of the team itself.  He does weigh "tradition" more heavily than other ranking systems.  Who would be crazy enough in this day of advanced analytics to think the future will look much like the past?  Of course South Florida will be one of the best 25 teams in the country in 2017 like they've always been, right?  Everyone has them around 20, but that idiot Sagarin has them at 51.  They'd beat Arkansas 8 times out of 10, right? 

I think Sagarin's poll is the most accurate preseason look I've seen yet at the relative strength of teams.  That doesn't mean it is an accurate look at the final poll, which will be based almost entirely on a team's record, with little thought given to strength of schedule.

south florida would beat arkansas 8 out of ten?? Wow, that is a ridiculous notion.

[Hoggish1]

A little more per-season information and projections to discuss while we await the kick-off.

Hogs come in at #16 behind #1 Alabama, #5 Auburn and #7 LSU.

Also:

A&M-#21
TCU-#26
MSU-#31
Ole Miss-#43
USC-#50
Mizzou-#73

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/team/

Now that's more like it. Sagarin is best indicator out there of where a football team is rated.

[Hoggish1]

So to me, the question is can we overachieve enough to knock off TCU and A&M? 


[/quote]

If we lost to either of those teams we would be underachieving

[GoHogzzGo]

The human view point is only part of his pre-season ratings.  He does take into account the polls, but those go out the window once games start.

Ahh good to know.

[Hoggish1]

Sagarin is actually very good but only good after several games.  Preseason ratings are worthless and have no meaning at all relative to what's going to happen this coming year.

Well then, Sagarin is the best of the worthless, right...?

[bphi11ips]

south florida would beat arkansas 8 out of ten?? Wow, that is a ridiculous notion.

Precisely the point.  Look again and you'll see the sarcasm. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I know, color me optimistic and all (I can afford to be at this time of the pre-season) but I really believe we are going to be better than expected this year and by better, I mean more than 8 wins.

[Tusks]

I know, color me optimistic and all (I can afford to be at this time of the pre-season) but I really believe we are going to be better than expected this year and by better, I mean more than 8 wins.

If they could just keep from laying any eggs this season it might be really fun.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If they could just keep from laying any eggs this season it might be really fun.

And that is the key. With a lesser defense by far (I believe) we should have won 9 last year. Should have won 9 to 10 each year for the last 3 years. I have a lot more confidence in Paul Rhoads than Robb Smith, though Rhoads hasn't accomplished anything here yet as a DC. If they are improved to just being "average", let alone what I think that they are capable of, it will put the onus on the Offensive staff to produce a two-half team. If we get that, we win 9 games, at least.

[jgphillips3]

I see 8 wins.  9 or even 10 are within reach if we gel early and avoid major injuries.  That would justify his position.  At 8-4 we'd probably be in the 22-30 range if they were close losses to solid teams.  9-3 and we are probably solidly in the teens.  I think he figures we are better than 7 teams on our schedule and can take down two of the other five.  That's pretty much how I see it.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I see 8 wins.  9 or even 10 are within reach if we gel early and avoid major injuries.  That would justify his position.  At 8-4 we'd probably be in the 22-30 range if they were close losses to solid teams.  9-3 and we are probably solidly in the teens.  I think he figures we are better than 7 teams on our schedule and can take down two of the other five.  That's pretty much how I see it.

That sounds like 9 wins to me.

[bphi11ips]

I know, color me optimistic and all (I can afford to be at this time of the pre-season) but I really believe we are going to be better than expected this year and by better, I mean more than 8 wins.

Arkansas will be very good this year.  So will 9 of our opponents.  I don't think you can focus only on wins and losses to measure success in the SEC West. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Arkansas will be very good this year.  So will 9 of our opponents.  I don't think you can focus only on wins and losses to measure success in the SEC West. 

I understand but it is probably time that we see the program move past 8 wins to 9 and I think that they need it. When I look at the last three years of teams and can see where they could have won 9-10 games each season, I think that this team could concieveably (on defense) nearly mimic 2014-like production and on offense, be more effective and productive than last year despite the lack of seasoned receivers.

Obviously, on Offense we have to give a full 4 quarters of supreme effort in every game, limit T/O's and penalties, make catches in traffic and be able to get 3 yards on the ground anytime we need it at any place on the field, but I think this is all doable.

I just want to see one year (as a start) where both sides of the ball click and we don't give games away. We've been better than what we have achieved. It's time to put it all together. A lot of that is going to have to do with how well we adapt to and execute a new defensive scheme and if we can stay healthy. Here's hoping that we do better than expected.

[jgphillips3]

That sounds like 9 wins to me.

Yes.  He sees 9 wins based on the scenario I set out.  I was saying I see 8 wins and where that puts us but he sees 9 wins and where that puts us.  Thus why I led with, "I see 8 wins" and what 8-4 versus 9-3 means in the polls.  I should have clarified the last sentence as "that's how I see him ranking us #16".

[GuvHog]

I see 8 wins.  9 or even 10 are within reach if we gel early and avoid major injuries.  That would justify his position.  At 8-4 we'd probably be in the 22-30 range if they were close losses to solid teams.  9-3 and we are probably solidly in the teens.  I think he figures we are better than 7 teams on our schedule and can take down two of the other five.  That's pretty much how I see it.

Since he ranks 9 of the teams on the Hogs schedule lower than the Hogs, I say he thinks the Hogs are better than those 9 teams. Thus the 9-3. Right now the only games I see the Hogs losing are Alabama, Auburn, and LSU but the Hogs usually play very well against Auburn in DWRRS.

[mizzouman]

As far as you know.

Well, yes. 

[mizzouman]

Well then, Sagarin is the best of the worthless, right...?

Haha, not what I said, exactly.

Sagarin is probably the best along with and ELO rating AFTER the games have been played, say 6 games.  After that, you can take these ratings and make a pretty good guess at who will win in a head to head game.  But, you have to keep in mind that the predictions are just a probability on which team will win 'most' of the time, or over 50% of the time.

Where Sagarin is worthless is in the pre-season.  Since no games have been played, it cannot accurate predict an outcome.  Instead, it takes an historical picture, the last 60 years putting a much, much greater weight on the last couple of years, combine that with some human factor, the pre-season polls, and the schedule...crunches all those numbers and gets you a starting point. 

[NuttinItUp]

Looks like some of the Aggies are taking the chance to disparage the Hogs a little and our high Sagarin ranking: https://texags.com/forums/5/topics/2875725/replies/49650375  (Note: do not click if you are easily upset.)

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Looks like some of the Aggies are taking the chance to disparage the Hogs a little and our high Sagarin ranking: https://texags.com/forums/5/topics/2875725/replies/49650375  (Note: do not click if you are easily upset.)

Are you Hogfan14 who likes to hang out on the Aggie board?

Bunch of folks on that board who don't have a clue about Arkansas. It's just idle b.s. chatter.

[NuttinItUp]

Are you Hogfan14 who likes to hang out on the Aggie board?

Nope. I don't have an account there. I just have about a half-dozen other-team message boards I like to check about once or twice a week.

[12247]

This preseason stuff is OK to talk about but it is really not important.  About anyone who sort of follows football could put together a pretty decent top 25 and likely be about as accurate as the knowledgeable folks who get paid to post this stuff.

As for Arkansas, please help as I likely forgot, but about the only early season wins I can remember the Hogs having that were eyebrow lifters was the Texas Tech win about 3 seasons back and TCU last year.  Otherwise, we start slow, barely beating teams we should hammer at our house and losing some we shouldn't so how could anyone see us an out of the gate preseason force. 

One of the things I hope for this season is we start like we are ready, bring it on.  I want every player to play like his job is on the line and the coaches to do likewise. 

[Deep Shoat]

This preseason stuff is OK to talk about but it is really not important.  About anyone who sort of follows football could put together a pretty decent top 25 and likely be about as accurate as the knowledgeable folks who get paid to post this stuff.

As for Arkansas, please help as I likely forgot, but about the only early season wins I can remember the Hogs having that were eyebrow lifters was the Texas Tech win about 3 seasons back and TCU last year.  Otherwise, we start slow, barely beating teams we should hammer at our house and losing some we shouldn't so how could anyone see us an out of the gate preseason force. 

One of the things I hope for this season is we start like we are ready, bring it on.  I want every player to play like his job is on the line and the coaches to do likewise.

Have you EVER said anything positive about the Hogs?

Legit, I want to punch you in the face.  Repeatedly.