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ESPN FPI Predicts Arkansas's 2017 Football Season

Started by Youngsta71701, June 17, 2017, 06:44:36 am

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Youngsta71701

According to ESPN we're headed for a disappointing 5-7 season. Wow!
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

 

southeasthog

Since they fired everybody and still know everything we should take that to the bank!
Quote from: 1990sHogBallChild on March 04, 2023, 04:08:32 pmWe have peaked... lucked his way to two elite 8s by getting the most favorable draws in tourney history. Beat the most over-rated 1 seed in the history of college basketball in Gonzaga who would be a 6 seed if they played in a real conference. Then Muss's other 5 tourney wins are against an average of a 12 seed. A few dozen coaches could have done that. Two losing records in SEC play is as much as MA had in 8 years.

goodguytex

Quote from: southeasthog on June 17, 2017, 07:05:53 am
Since they fired everybody and still know everything we should take that to the bank!
I don't think we will finish that way. But if we do, bielema definitely will or should be on the hot seat, where the fans are concerned anyway.

rhames

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 17, 2017, 07:03:06 am
According to ESPN we're headed for a disappointing 5-7 season. Wow!

Well that's not really how that works and fpi changes as the season goes on. However it has been pretty accurate.


Arkansas will win 6 to 7 games this year.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

Youngsta71701

Quote from: southeasthog on June 17, 2017, 07:05:53 am
Since they fired everybody and still know everything we should take that to the bank!
Not really. My personal prediction is 8-4, (4-0) (4-4). And I'm being optimistic.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 17, 2017, 08:00:11 am
Not really. My personal prediction is 8-4, (4-0) (4-4). And I'm being optimistic.

We will win at least 8.
Go Hogs Go!

daBoar

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 08:12:50 am
We will win at least 8.
Ahh, stepping on out.  However, if CBB is anywhere close to the HC we were hoping for 5 years ago, he'll turn this team into something better than the pundits project. 

HOGINTENNESSEE

If we go 5-7 with MSU, Mizz at home and SC as our East Road game. I'm off the CBB wagon

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: daBoar on June 17, 2017, 08:55:19 am
Ahh, stepping on out.  However, if CBB is anywhere close to the HC we were hoping for 5 years ago, he'll turn this team into something better than the pundits project. 

Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.
Go Hogs Go!

yoyog

Quote from: Youngsta71701 on June 17, 2017, 07:03:06 am
According to ESPN we're headed for a disappointing 5-7 season. Wow!

Actually, the FPI assigns the greatest likelihood to a 6-6 record, and the FPI predicts that a 7-5 record is more likely than a 5-7 record.

LRRandy

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 09:29:10 am
Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.
that is the truth. There has been plenty of time to get his players, his coaches, and his system in place and running at a high level.
This is fun, isn't it.

TNhawgfan

Quote from: HOGINTENNESSEE on June 17, 2017, 08:59:51 am
If we go 5-7 with MSU, Mizz at home and SC as our East Road game. I'm off the CBB wagon
Off the wagon? If he goes 5-7 in year 5 he should be permanently escorted back to the state of iowa
I'd rather be dead than be a Vol

 

TNhawgfan

Quote from: LRRandy on June 17, 2017, 09:44:24 am
that is the truth. There has been plenty of time to get his players, his coaches, and his system in place and running at a high level.
Yep, not to mention he himself said the walk ons and redshirts would add depth by year five. Let's see the results coach
I'd rather be dead than be a Vol

JayHog

Don't sleep on any team that has a Senior QB...ESPECIALLY when it's a Senior QB that can sling it. Remember I said it

southeasthog

Quote from: JayHog on June 17, 2017, 10:24:23 am
Don't sleep on any team that has a Senior QB...ESPECIALLY when it's a Senior QB that can sling it. Remember I said it
But Hamsammich says that Austin isn't really that good and the Allen Brothers will be the downfall of Beliema and Long. Now I don't know what to believe.
Quote from: 1990sHogBallChild on March 04, 2023, 04:08:32 pmWe have peaked... lucked his way to two elite 8s by getting the most favorable draws in tourney history. Beat the most over-rated 1 seed in the history of college basketball in Gonzaga who would be a 6 seed if they played in a real conference. Then Muss's other 5 tourney wins are against an average of a 12 seed. A few dozen coaches could have done that. Two losing records in SEC play is as much as MA had in 8 years.

hog of steele

Disclaimer: I still love CBB and I think he has done well for us.

The buyout protects him for another year. 5-7 will not cost him his job. But it would definitely put him on the clock. 5-7 this year, followed by 5-7 next year would probably finish him. But I expect we will win 7 or 8 this year.

MemphisBossHog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 09:29:10 am
Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.
When assessing the Hogs and trying to predict the upcoming season, I try to be positive but things like the absolute talent disparity between ARK and teams like Bama, LSU and Auburn---and A$M as well--make it hard to do so.   These teams are head and shoulders above Ark as far as physical talent and speed are concerned.  Bama is simply Bama.  Their 2nd and 3rd string players are about as good as our 1st string.  LSU and Auburn simply manhandled us last year.  When the 2 teams are on the field together, it is apparent which team has the talent, size and speed.  Tex A$M is getting that way as well.  It all comes down to recruiting--the life blood of any program and we consistently come in around 9th-12th in the SEC in recruiting.   So 6-6 might be the best we can hope for. I want it to be better, but we have to be realistic here.  We just dont recruit on the same level that these other teams do in the SEC.  8 or 9 wins might just be out of reach for us. 

bphi11ips

This is just an extension of FPI. Football is not played on computers.  Intangibles are not predictable at this time of the year.

I don't get the TCU love.  It's probably due more to their expected win total than anything else.  They'll have a tough time beating Arkansas in Fayetteville.  A win there and Arkansas gets A&M on a truly neutral field with a 5th year senior QB while A&M looks to establish one.  Give this team a little confidence, AA some time to synch up with the juco studs, and the LBs time settle in, and this could be a pretty good year.
Life is too short for grudges and feuds.

rtr

The more smites the more intelligent I get.

GuvHog

Quote from: TNhawgfan on June 17, 2017, 10:02:25 am
Off the wagon? If he goes 5-7 in year 5 he should be permanently escorted back to the state of iowa

I honestly believe if the Hogs win 7 regular season games, Bret will survive to coach another year at Arkansas but win 6 or less and he's gone after this season. The buyout won't matter because they'd be big money boosters lining up to pay it.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Wildhog

Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

VirginiaHog

Quote from: Wildhog on June 17, 2017, 02:07:37 pm
We go 5-7 and he should be fired, IMO.
We won't.
He won't and shouldn't.
Go Hogs.

P.s. I would be shocked if we don't win 8 or more.

FutureMan

Only a 37.4% chance to beat S.C.?  I find that kind of hard to believe.  I'd say it's at least 50/50,
"Once we believe in ourselves, we can risk curiosity, wonder, spontaneous delight, or any experience that reveals the human spirit."
- E.E. Cummings

 

Wildhog

Quote from: VirginiaHog on June 17, 2017, 05:58:57 pm
We won't.
He won't and shouldn't.
Go Hogs.

P.s. I would be shocked if we don't win 8 or more.

I think we win 7, maybe 8.

And yes, if he loses 7 games he should go.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

GuvHog

Quote from: VirginiaHog on June 17, 2017, 05:58:57 pm
We won't.
He won't and shouldn't.
Go Hogs.

P.s. I would be shocked if we don't win 8 or more.

If P5 University does not fire a coach after 5 straight years of winning 7 games or less in regular season play, there is something seriously wrong in that school's Athletic Department.

That being said, I believe they'll win 9 this year.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

colbs

Quote from: rhames on June 17, 2017, 07:58:18 am
Well that's not really how that works and fpi changes as the season goes on. However it has been pretty accurate.


Arkansas will win 6 to 7 games this year.
Not really it only had Arkansas favored in like 4 or 5 games last year.

factchecker

Quote from: Wildhog on June 17, 2017, 06:19:13 pm
I think we win 7, maybe 8.

And yes, if he loses 7 games he should go.

I agree.  We can't afford to take another step back.
WORK FOR IT
PLAN ON IT
EARN IT
OMAHOGS

jgphillips3

If he went 5-7 this year, it would take a 10 win season next year to get the fans back on board.  Can't collapse that bad in year 5 when you've done nothing better than average up to that point.

Al Boarland

Looks right to me. People throw up W's beside teams we will have to scrape and claw to beat (USCe, MS St, Ole Miss). That's not to say we can snag a couple, but they will be tough wins.

Been10Hog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on June 17, 2017, 09:29:10 am
Not really "stepping out". I think that if all we win is 8 games after Bielema being on board for 4 years, that is underachieving. Need to win at least 9 for the 2017 season to be considered a success, at least as it relates to progress for the program (in terms of wins) under Bielema. Just my opinion.
Not sure how it is underachieving to win more games than you were predicted to win by the "experts". Delusional fans say "if we don't win 8 or 9, Bret is on the hot seat!" Really, name me the 8 or 9 we are supposed to win

rhames

Quote from: colbs on June 17, 2017, 07:03:48 pm
Not really it only had Arkansas favored in like 4 or 5 games last year.
Quote


It's not based on how many games you have the higher percentage to win.


The FPI had us at about 7 wins last year I believe.


"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

GuvHog

Quote from: Been10Hog on June 20, 2017, 12:56:51 pm
Not sure how it is underachieving to win more games than you were predicted to win by the "experts". Delusional fans say "if we don't win 8 or 9, Bret is on the hot seat!" Really, name me the 8 or 9 we are supposed to win

FAMU
TCU (Moderately close)
Texas A&M
New Mexico State
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Coastal Carolina
Miss State
Missouri
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Been10Hog

Quote from: GuvHog on June 20, 2017, 01:09:10 pm
FAMU
TCU (Moderately close)
Texas A&M
New Mexico State
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Coastal Carolina
Miss State
Missouri
That would be great!! Just hope people realize that says we will upset 4 teams according to FPI

phadedhawg

I think 6.5 wins will be par this year.  7 or above, Bret is okay, 6 or below, it will be a painful offseason. 

I believe he will be back for his 6th season and that will probably be the last.  It's been too long since we fired a coach.  That part of the fanbase is getting restless

yraciv

Here are the actual percentages. We're favored to win 5,  but we're the overwhelming favorite in 3 of those.  Some games are closer to a coin flip, which makes 6-6 or 7-5 more likely.  And I'm not buying the TCU or South Carolina favorites, and I just think we're due against A&M. I'm optimistic enough to go with 8-4.
Record   Likelihood
12-0   0.0014%
11-1   0.05%
10-2   0.55%
9-3   3.31%
8-4   11.21%
7-5   22.86%
6-6   28.69%
5-7   21.80%
4-8   9.42%
3-9   1.97%
2-10   0.13%
1-11   0.0027%
0-12   0.000007%

Youngsta71701

Quote from: GuvHog on June 17, 2017, 02:02:25 pm
I honestly believe if the Hogs win 7 regular season games, Bret will survive to coach another year at Arkansas but win 6 or less and he's gone after this season. The buyout won't matter because they'd be big money boosters lining up to pay it.
Jerry Jones?
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

rhames

Quote from: yraciv on June 20, 2017, 01:35:11 pm
Here are the actual percentages. We're favored to win 5,  but we're the overwhelming favorite in 3 of those.  Some games are closer to a coin flip, which makes 6-6 or 7-5 more likely.  And I'm not buying the TCU or South Carolina favorites, and I just think we're due against A&M. I'm optimistic enough to go with 8-4.
Record   Likelihood
12-0   0.0014%
11-1   0.05%
10-2   0.55%
9-3   3.31%
8-4   11.21%
7-5   22.86%
6-6   28.69%
5-7   21.80%
4-8   9.42%
3-9   1.97%
2-10   0.13%
1-11   0.0027%
0-12   0.000007%



Thanks for breaking this down.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

rhames

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

010HogFan


rhames

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken"

"Can we get some waffles after we get some ass?" - Aunt Tiffany Freeman

Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
The only down time my legs see is when seated in 1st Class.

nwahogfan1

Quote from: goodguytex on June 17, 2017, 07:08:36 am
I don't think we will finish that way. But if we do, bielema definitely will or should be on the hot seat, where the fans are concerned anyway.
Whether Long admits it or not if we do 5-7 And no Bowl Cbb seat would be very warm

GoHogs1091

We should be able to win at least 3 of the 4 non-conference games (with the loss being to TCU).

We should be able to win against Mississippi State, Missouri, and South Carolina.

We should be able to win at least 6 games, so ESPN's attempt at an accurate prediction should be incorrect.

bigeasyhog

My eyes are burning. I can't believe this is where we've fallen. Say what you want; but if Petrino were still here, I highly doubt we would be praying for six wins. I just can't get my mind around this. Is this really how low the bar is now for the head coach for the Razorbacks?
I cut my teeth on Lou Holtz football, and was on the hill during the Hatfield/ Crowe era. We won the SWC my sophomore year ( ironically our last conference title). But, even with the move to a stronger conference, I never dreamed we would become this complacent and content .
I'm tired, and quite frankly, embarrassed. IMO, there's a lot of coaches that can go .500 every year at Arkansas. Hell, I think I could, and I'll work for a lot less than $4mm a year! Oh, and yes, I Coach football.
I'm tired of the laundry list of excuses. Losers make excuses. Guys, it's all about coaching. When you have superior coaching on the hill, in any sport, you can win, and even win big. I don't care if you're running relays, hitting home runs, dunking basketballs , or throwing TD's ; John McDonell, Dave Van Horn, Nolan Richardson , Bobby Petrino, Lou Holtz all won or win at a high and national level in , guess where ? Fayetteville, AR!!! The campus is located in the exact same place!! Kids want to play for a winner! PERIOD!! Fayetteville isn't "remote". Hell, we didn't have I-49 or XNA when I was there. It couldn't be more easy to get there now! Show me all the recruiting interviews with Richard Davenport where the recruit says" well, it's too hard to get to Fayetteville; it's just too remote...". If John McDonell can get track talent from Ireland and South Africa, then I'm done with the whole location limitations premise.
Just stop it!! Enough! 
Honestly, perception is reality. And right now, even though Bielema may be keeping kids in school, and graduating them, the perception of Razorback football is in decline. Why? Because we are " barely on the radar screen ", because we accept mediocrity. I miss the fact that Frank Broyles fired Lou Holtz  in 1983 for going 6-5. I miss that he fired Jack Crowe in 1992 for losing to the Citadel. Why? Because he KNEW once you allow and reward mediocrity, it eventually becomes acceptable. So, now here we are. I just hope before I'm six feet under, we can " break the chain". That's all I've got.

TNRazorbacker


Hey Super

Quote from: rhames on June 17, 2017, 07:58:18 am
Well that's not really how that works and fpi changes as the season goes on. However it has been pretty accurate.


Arkansas will win 6 to 7 games this year.

6 to 7 wins sounds right to me.
As the ancient Tibetan philosophy states...... "Don't start none ... won't be none"<br /><br />
Quote from: Seebs on July 23, 2011, 02:33:26 pm<br />Please do not allow facts to get in the way of a good freak out<br />

Al Boarland

Quote from: GoHogs1091 on June 20, 2017, 02:20:05 pm

We should be able to win against Mississippi State, Missouri, and South Carolina

We are about equal from a talent perspective to these programs, so you must think we have a coaching advantage.

Al Boarland

Quote from: bigeasyhog on June 20, 2017, 09:00:36 pm
My eyes are burning. I can't believe this is where we've fallen. Say what you want; but if Petrino were still here, I highly doubt we would be praying for six wins. I just can't get my mind around this. Is this really how low the bar is now for the head coach for the Razorbacks?
I cut my teeth on Lou Holtz football, and was on the hill during the Hatfield/ Crowe era. We won the SWC my sophomore year ( ironically our last conference title). But, even with the move to a stronger conference, I never dreamed we would become this complacent and content .
I'm tired, and quite frankly, embarrassed. IMO, there's a lot of coaches that can go .500 every year at Arkansas. Hell, I think I could, and I'll work for a lot less than $4mm a year! Oh, and yes, I Coach football.
I'm tired of the laundry list of excuses. Losers make excuses. Guys, it's all about coaching. When you have superior coaching on the hill, in any sport, you can win, and even win big. I don't care if you're running relays, hitting home runs, dunking basketballs , or throwing TD's ; John McDonell, Dave Van Horn, Nolan Richardson , Bobby Petrino, Lou Holtz all won or win at a high and national level in , guess where ? Fayetteville, AR!!! The campus is located in the exact same place!! Kids want to play for a winner! PERIOD!! Fayetteville isn't "remote". Hell, we didn't have I-49 or XNA when I was there. It couldn't be more easy to get there now! Show me all the recruiting interviews with Richard Davenport where the recruit says" well, it's too hard to get to Fayetteville; it's just too remote...". If John McDonell can get track talent from Ireland and South Africa, then I'm done with the whole location limitations premise.
Just stop it!! Enough! 
Honestly, perception is reality. And right now, even though Bielema may be keeping kids in school, and graduating them, the perception of Razorback football is in decline. Why? Because we are " barely on the radar screen ", because we accept mediocrity. I miss the fact that Frank Broyles fired Lou Holtz  in 1983 for going 6-5. I miss that he fired Jack Crowe in 1992 for losing to the Citadel. Why? Because he KNEW once you allow and reward mediocrity, it eventually becomes acceptable. So, now here we are. I just hope before I'm six feet under, we can " break the chain". That's all I've got.

Times have changed. If you don't think we are at a geapgeaphical disadvantage recruiting I don't know what to tell you.

It's a fact.

OneTuskOverTheLine™

Quote from: rhames on June 17, 2017, 07:58:18 am
Well that's not really how that works and fpi changes as the season goes on. However it has been pretty accurate.


Arkansas will win 6 to 7 games this year.

It changes as the season goes on because it's the same bullshrimp method that these monkey fighting snakes at ESPN do every year. They plot teams based on their imagined  "Greatness scale of History" and cross reference that with "Recruiting rankings" both of which are akin to global warming(made up political bullshrimp); then they cook that in a broth with how they feel for that day until they come up with a "Somebodies got to lose" Because LSU, Auburn, Florida and Georgia are going to have to be propped up in their fantasy list. Tennessee used to get this propping, but after having a top 5 recruiting class and a bottom 50 finish 10 years running, they lost one or two of their proverbial EA Sports Prestige Stars... (You old skool NCAA ballers knowutImean)...
Quote from: capehog on March 12, 2010...
My ex wife had a pet monkey I used to play with. That was one of the few things I liked about her

quote from: golf2day on June 19, 2014....
I'm disgusted, but kinda excited. Now I'm disgusted that I'm excited.

Al Boarland

Quote from: OneTuskOverTheLine™ on June 21, 2017, 05:44:04 am
It changes as the season goes on because it's the same bullshrimp method that these monkey fighting snakes at ESPN do every year. They plot teams based on their imagined  "Greatness scale of History" and cross reference that with "Recruiting rankings" both of which are akin to global warming(made up political bullshrimp); then they cook that in a broth with how they feel for that day until they come up with a "Somebodies got to lose" Because LSU, Auburn, Florida and Georgia are going to have to be propped up in their fantasy list. Tennessee used to get this propping, but after having a top 5 recruiting class and a bottom 50 finish 10 years running, they lost one or two of their proverbial EA Sports Prestige Stars... (You old skool NCAA ballers knowutImean)...

And with all that they are still more accurate than many on hogville.