Worst June for stocks since the Depression

[HotlantaHog]

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 9.4 percent this month, its worst June since an 18 percent tumble in 1930.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aT.gUZndgG7k&refer=home

[BlackKnightHogFan]

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 9.4 percent this month, its worst June since an 18 percent tumble in 1930.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aT.gUZndgG7k&refer=home

Today was ugly and I don't see the bottom yet.  Broke through some key support levels, technically that means a leg down, 5%-10% more.  June average return in the history of the market is a meger .35% so not normally a good month anyway.  It could go down to 2003 levels before the bounce.  ugh!!!  Again this is only my opinion.

[Biggus Piggus]

Dis is what happens when your early-cycle investment plays start to go in before the bottom of the previous cycle.  Whee!

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Bottom today?  Anybody else share that opinion?  The Dow and S&P hit the -20% level and bounced.  It is officially an interday bear market.  Does it go up from here.  Pharma up, some tech turned around...bottom anyone...what say you?

[Masshog]

Maybe a short term bottom, but I think over the next few weeks, significantly lower lows are likely.  Lots of distribution going on, lots of downside volume and NO sign of strong hands accumulating. Feels and acts like a classic new impulse lower after a correction.  But as I keep saying, I'm wrong a lot. 

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Maybe a short term bottom, but I think over the next few weeks, significantly lower lows are likely.  Lots of distribution going on, lots of downside volume and NO sign of strong hands accumulating. Feels and acts like a classic new impulse lower after a correction.  But as I keep saying, I'm wrong a lot. 

Yea with the technical levels we've gone through another 5-10% leg down is very possible.  Next week on thin volume and the end of a quarter, will be hard to get a read on anything.  If we continue the downturn through July it will be a long way back up.

[Masshog]

S&P and broader indexes have yet to violate meaningful support.... I only watch the Dow as a curiosity.  S&P, Wilshire 5000 and NYSE are all still above their March lows... I am more concerned about the nature and the behavior of the declines in these three than I am with the Dow being below its early year low. 

[BigSexyHog]

I sold all mine into cash about 2 weeks ago... I have been killed lately, but would have been hit harded if I didn't sell.  I don't have alot, but what I have is all I have.

[HotlantaHog]

We go lower. Lots of financials are looking extremely dicey with one or more failures likely.

The financial carnage won't end until housing prices level out, and given the huge inventories and the number of foreclosures, that may not happen until 2009.

Until financials can make a meaningful rally, it will be hard to see how an overall rebound can last.

[SultanofSwine]

Still a lot of mort write downs left to eat too.

Folks with lots of cash should be loving this. The most of the dang store is on clearance.

[Masshog]

At least in the financials, the lack of transparency is going to continue to be a major problem.  For instance, for a variety of fundamental reasons, I am lusting to buy Wells Fargo, but I have no confidence that the Option Arms (Negative Am loans) in their portfolios are going to preform at all (and their chart shows no sign of a clear bottom).  For months now I have heard analysts suggest that "We back up the truck on the banks and financials.".  So far, that truck has backed over them about five or six times.   Frankly, at this point, I have 0 confidence in anything any of the brokers/banks/homebuilders say or report.  Mark to market has been selectively put on hold, the definition of "Non Preforming" has been "Evolved" and on and on and on and on. 

[Masshog]

I also continue to wonder how these guys are going to make money going forward.  The securitization market is going to be small (at least by the standards of the last 10 years, new limits on leverage are going to be enacted... and so on. I think it will take several years before the rocket scientists can figure out something new to generate big fees.  Banks, back to traditional borrow short and lend long.... very hard to make the kind of earnings that we have become accustomed to in this area.

[BlackKnightHogFan]

I also continue to wonder how these guys are going to make money going forward.  The securitization market is going to be small (at least by the standards of the last 10 years, new limits on leverage are going to be enacted... and so on. I think it will take several years before the rocket scientists can figure out something new to generate big fees.  Banks, back to traditional borrow short and lend long.... very hard to make the kind of earnings that we have become accustomed to in this area.

What you said plus more regulation coming...worse with a dem in the White House and Congress.

[Masshog]

Wish I could buy litigation calls.  Sense a real bull market building. 

[BlackKnightHogFan]

Wish I could buy litigation calls.  Sense a real bull market building. 

That's great +1 to you!

[SultanofSwine]

Too funny