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NL Central Prediction Thread

Started by Oklahawg, March 12, 2008, 10:39:25 pm

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Oklahawg

March 12, 2008, 10:39:25 pm Last Edit: March 13, 2008, 08:32:58 am by Oklahawg
Time to hit the home territory. I grew up a Cardinal fan and still am. My foray into rotisserie has helped me enjoy good teams and good talent, but I still root for the Cards. Not going to be pretty, but that's a preview of the bottom half of this post.

1. Brewers. Milwaukee continues to churn out great talent and is not afraid to feature them at the MLB level. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder will be fixtures in Brewtown for a long time. They are certainly the type of players you can build around. Poor Bill Hall. He is going to his 3rd position in 3 years, a habit that tends to stifle one's productivity. It doesn't matter, as only the catching slot is an offensive concern.

Ben Sheets is the enigma of this staff. Like so many teams, getting good numbers from your number equates with overall success. If he tops 160 innings then chalk up 93-95 wins for these guys. I think Gagne will be back, and the Brewers have learned how to build a bullpen, stockpiling lots of useful and interesting guys.

2. Cubs. Lou Pinella is heralded as a genius manager. I don't believe it after reading today that he's considering Ryan Theroit at leadoff (horrible secondary numbers for that role), Alfonso Soriano in the number two hole (put him first, fourth or fifth), and Kusoko darnudome at number five (a better leadoff option than Theriot, but he runs well and makes great contact so he is a better option at #3).

Alas, these three are joined by solid production at the corners and a solid set of questions in CF. Does Felix Pie finally figure it out? Or, does he get passed by the less heralded Sam Fuld? Or, more likely, the Cubbies gut the farm system to acquire a serviceable OF.

I'm not convinced Carlos Zambrano is a top-tier pitcher, and think he'd profit from being the #2 guy on the staff. Rich Hill is not likely to take his place. Somewhere around here is a thread about Ted Lilly. I'm not a "believer" there, either.

End game could be dicey. Playoff contention to the bitter end is in store for the northsiders if Marmol or Wood show they can be a good closer. My favorite of the endgame options, Angel Guzman, is recovering from surgery, so 2009 is when he becomes an option. I remember when Howry started closing in about 1974 - I don't think he has a full year left in him. Find some middle relievers like notable staff building champs (Braves, Padres) and these guys stay neck and neck with the Brewers.

3. Odd choice here, the Reds. Dusty Baker's convictions about not playing young players will be tested at length this year. The Reds have uber-prospects Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey begging for playing time. Only Bailey is not showing up like a MLB starter this spring. He'll be up soon enough.

Alex Gonzalez is ailing at SS and Edwin Encarnacion (who seems like he should be ready for retirement until I remember he was called up at 14, or something like that) is still waiting for his true breakout year. This might well be the year.

Picking up Corey Patterson allows the team some time with Bruce, or allows the team to plan for Griffey's eventual injury. Good to have an option for Adam Dunn defensively, as well.

The staff isn't glamorous, but the off-season pick-up of Francisco Cordero as closer shows that this bunch means business. My pet-peeve (and LVW's, I think) is bullpen innings and the Reds don't have the bodies to flesh out the middle innings right now. They may appear, and if they do watch out. 2009 is a better bet for this bunch.

4. Cardinals. My, how the mighty have fallen. If the pitching staff doesn't quit having body parts fall off in spring training they may not be able to finish ahead of anyone in this division. The decade-long run of little minor league help beyond Pujols and a couple of fine catchers has finally landed in the laps of the upper brass. The minors are still 2 years away from providing help. Off season moves did nothing except jettison a couple of nice guys whose skills are fading quickly, Edmonds and Eckstein.

The defense falls quite a bit with the loss of Eckstein and Rolen, with replacements not being known for their glove. Colby Rasmus is one of the games exciting young players and he'll have every chance to show his stuff. Pujols elbow injury sounds scary but I think Albert is as fundamentally sound as they come: if anyone can fend this off its Pujols.

Find me some innings!! I start a workout program to get my haggard self ready, just in case they call. Keep your phones handy, as they have about 2 starters and 3 relievers who are truly MLB caliber. How many more years before Izzy collapses?

5. Astros. Tough call, as I think they could compete for it all, but also could collapse. Couple of first rate starters but I don't know if the staff is really 5-deep (I'm thinking 3-1/2). Pitching in Houston 81 games a year means you better either score like a slow-pitch softball team, or have 3 Roy Oswalts.

Lots of folks will watch the retooled bullpen. Lidge had to move on to be a solid closer, but we'll see if Valverde is the real deal. Losing young arm Paulino for a few weeks at the start of the season may be a blessing, as he'll hit about when the first call for a 5th starter is made. He might be better served as a short man for the year.

I am not a Miggy Tejada fan. Having typed that, he is a nice tag-team for Lance Berkman, and young Hunter Pence may wind up as a top 10 offensive player in the league. Is JR Towles ready to be a MLB catcher? Can he hit 20 HR while catching 140 games a year? Stay tuned, as he will be a good one.

6. The Pirates haven't left this slot on most folks predictions for years. 2009 will change that. They have an emerging rotation filled with #2s and #3s but no real #1. That describes way too many MLB teams. Ian Snell holds the #1 slot and he's done nothing but prove critics wrong his entire career. I remember having him stashed on a reserve list many years ago and giving up on him because all the roti experts said he was too short. Yeah, so was Pedro Martinez.

The Bucs need something to go right. They've been burned by flameout top prospects (anyone care to discuss Chad Hermansen, former #1 pick who became the poster child for AAAA players?) and their top pitchers in the minors have lost a year due to injuries. They'll begin hitting this year in middle relief, as a #4 or #5 (don't need it, necessarily), or as trade bait.

The Pirates always make deadline moves in the summer that fail. I hope they hang onto Bay, LaRoche and Nady although that stifles the progress of two fine prospects, Neil Walker and Steven Pearce. Finding something beyond other team's journeyman utility guy for the SS position would be beneficial. (No, I don't like Jack Wilson.) Brent Bixler (sounds like a porn star) is due to hit Three Rivers some time in the next couple of years.

There is more hope here than in St. Louis, but the Pirates don't have Duncan, Rasmus, Ankiel and a guy named Pujols. Thus, they have to have more success stories and fewer flameouts. This reminds me a bit of Milwaukee -- if they can hang around .500 after Memorial Day they may start believing they can win.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

donstoy


 

Oklahawg

This may be the toughest division to predict. The winning team could have anywhere from 86 to 96 wins. There could be 4 teams under .500. There could be 5 teams within a few games of .500.

What stands out is that each team has the obvious asset that is neatly combined with a deficiency:

1. Brewers - tons of youthful talent; no veteran stalwart to anchor to, especially on the pitching staff (assumes Ben Sheets misses at least a few weeks with an injury)
2. Cubs - who is the on-field leader of this bunch? Is it Derrek Lee?? Missing the obvious endgame stud may not be as important as the wholes in the rotation.
3. Reds - simply put, awkward transition to youth with a manager whose track record is not youth-friendly
4. Cards - Pujols still the team leader but not a lot to lead, in my opinion. Counting on unheralded folks to win games.
5. Astros - Plenty of leaders, and maybe the best chemistry of any team in the league (vets, rookies, etc.), but there is still a problem with the pitching staff after Oswalt (imho).
6. Pirates - Lots of good role players, but there isn't the one big stud to carry the team. Jason Bay could go a long way towards fixing that by returning to his 2006 form. The All-Star HR contest jinx hit him hard.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

primetime21

This Division is going to be very, very mediocre.

1. Cubs - Great power in the lineup, pitching will be good enough
2. Brewers - lost Cordero to FA.  Health remains an issue with pitching staff.
3. Reds - Will surprise people.  Lots of young talent.
4. Cards - The pitching staff is going to be the worst many have seen in years.  Pujols health remains an issue
5. Pirates - Very good young pitching staff that could find success.  A few good players in the field.
6. Astros - Not sure about this team.

hog_heaven_2000

Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Cards
Astros
Pirates
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

Whiskey River

1. Cubs (This is our year!)
2. Brewers
3. Reds
and the rest really don't matter.
This species has amused itself to death...

BradyHolzhauer

NL CENTRAL:

1. Cubs
2. Milwaukee
3. Cardinals
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

bellavistamike

I don't care too much for any of these squads.

I'll say Brewers, Cubs, then maybe, who cares? I don't believe the Cubs can win it, so I'll have to say Brew-crew.

selfexplanatory

Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Pirates
Astros
This year's nominee for the Coopy award.
Quote from: majp51 on June 02, 2010, 03:27:42 pm
Err, now I know it's easy to bash Shiloh Christian, but I'm pretty there aren't that many high schools in Arkansas that have a player picked in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft.
Or have you forgotten where Damian Williams played school?

LVW

March 23, 2008, 11:26:03 am #9 Last Edit: March 23, 2008, 09:23:25 pm by LVW
If the Astros pick up John Patterson and can somehow get 25 starts out of him they would have enough decent starters(Oswalt, Wandy, and Patterson) to become a serious threat with the offensive potential they have.
Van_the_man_Unusual

width=250 height=156]http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/8279/chapman.jpg

LVW

Quote from: Oklahawg on March 12, 2008, 10:39:25 pm
2. Cubs. Lou Pinella is heralded as a genius manager. I don't believe it after reading today that he's considering Ryan Theroit at leadoff (horrible secondary numbers for that role), Alfonso Soriano in the number two hole (put him first, fourth or fifth), and Kusoko Kukudome at number five (a better leadoff option than Theriot, but he runs well and makes great contact so he is a better option at #3).

I'm not saying I necessarily agree with all of what he's doing but I can see his reasoning for these reasons:

1. The Cubs have 6 right handed hitters in their 8 position spots and he wants to split them up and hitting Kukudome 5th splits it up some.

2. Batting Soriano 2nd means he take can advantage of what he's done best in his career(hit with the bases empty-career .290 or with a runner on 1st- .291 career) and not batting him in the middle of the order where he's a .252 career hitter with runners in scoring position and opposing pitcher won't be able to pitch nearly as carefully with Lee hitting behnd hin as they did with Theriot behind him.

3. Hitting Kukudome 3rd would push Lee and Ramirez to the 4th and 5th spots and that's not something I would want if I were a Cubs fan and hitting him leadoff would put 6 rh batters in a row and essentially both leftys batting back to back.

with that being said if he were to get larussa like creative this would be an interesting lineup to see:

1. Derosa
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Kukudome
6. Soto
7. Cedeno(instead of Theriot)
8. pitcher's spot
9. Pie

I think Cedeno deserves another shot after hitting .359/.422/.537 in AAA and performing well in winterball last year; and he has a better zone rating at SS than Theriot does.
Van_the_man_Unusual

width=250 height=156]http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/8279/chapman.jpg

Oklahawg

Nice work, LVW. Some managers are statgeeks, while many (like Piniella) are not. Fukudome will hit regardless. I anticipate a .280 BA and 20 HR.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

Bigfoot

Lou Piniella will change things up as the season goes on.

 

Bigfoot

NL Central prediction.
1.CUBS
2.BREWERS
3.ASTROS
4.REDS
5.CARDINALS
6.PIRATES