SEC will get 6 Tourney teams if ACC gets 6.

[silvertip]

Everyone including pundicators & talking heads have been trying to hypnotize us all into thinking the SEC is "really down" this season. Well, IF that is the case, then the ACC is really down just as much.

From warrennolan.com conference RPI rankings on Tuesday, the ACC is the 3rd ranked conf & the SEC is 4th. BUT, looking at the actual ranking number is startling. ACC's RPI was .5822 and the SEC RPI was .5795. A difference of only .0027. The question is, can the SEC overtake the ACC for the #3 RPI rank?

WELL, on Tuesday, the ACC led by .0027. On Wednesday, the lead was only .0020. A gain for the SEC of .0007 in ONE night of play. At that rate, the SEC will be ahead of the ACC after 3 more game-days for both teams.

THERE are a couple more indications that the SEC might wind up ahead of the ACC. Note that conference RPI are based on non-conference opponents. The RPI for any team or conf changes every time one of it's opponents (and THEIR opponents) play a game.
So, consider this:

(1) The SEC is totally done playing non-conference games. BUT the ACC has 5 more non-conference games to go. So, the ACC RPI is subject to MORE change in it's RPI than is the SEC.

(2) As with Hog's RPI dropping after WINNING the game vs SC, most of the ACC's team's RPI might drop even if they win these non-conf games. Because in every case, they are playing opponents with a RPI that is weaker than their own SOS so far. That's a complicated issue, but I'm FAIRLY certain that these non-conf games will wind up pulling ACC down in the RPI.

THEREFORE, the NCAA selection committee will have a hard time "spinning" it, if they award 6 invites to the ACC, but only 5 to an SEC that ranks above them in RPI. IF this hasn't given you a headache yet, look at the 6 most likely "dancers" from each conf, with each team's RPI as of Tuesday:

-----ACC----------SEC
----Duke, #1-----------
----------------#3 Tenn
----------------#13 Fla
----------------#21 LSU
----NC St, #22---------
-----UNC,  #26---------
------BC,  #30----------
----------------#35 KY--
------Md, #41-----------
----------------#45 Bama
------Mia, #62-----------
-----------------#67 ARK

Based on all that, I say the SEC will DESERVE as many bids as the ACC. Be that 5 or 6, and you just know the NCAA guys will just DIE if they can't get 6 for the ACC.   

[hogsanity]

Difference is, the NCAA simply WORSHIPS the ACC.  When it comes to the NCAA toruney, Deserves has little to do with what happens. 

The real problem the NCAA toruney has is that when they went to 64 teams, there really were not many more than that that even had an argument that they should be in.  Now with all the penny ante conferences that get auto bids for teams that would have losing records if they played in the SEC or ACC night in and night out, and the improvement of the mid majors, the bigger conferences get squeezed. 

Surely one has to beleive a 19-9 Ar team is better than whatever teams comes out of the SUn belt or MEAC, but in the problem also lies the beauty of the tourney.

Cut out the confernce toruney's add one more 4 day session to the big dance and invite 256 teams. 

[Biggus Piggus]

If the NCAA worships the ACC, how did the ACC get only three teams into the NCAAT a few years back (1999 and 2000)?

In 1999, the ACC had only three teams with winning conference records.  That seems to be an important factor.  The league had six teams with winning overall records.

In 1999, the best RPI below the top three in the ACC was Florida State's 55, with NC State at 56.

In 2000, the ACC had four teams with winning conference records, six teams with winning records.  Virginia was 9-7 in the league, 19-10 regular season, but lost on Friday in the ACCT.  North Carolina was 18-12 in the regular season, 9-7 in the league, lost on Friday in the ACCT, but got in and went to the Final Four.

This year, the SEC has four teams that are at least two games above .500 in the conference.  Bubble teams have to include Kentucky (5-4), Georgia (4-5), Vanderbilt (3-5), Alabama (5-3), Arkansas (4-4).

Bama finishes vs. Vandy, at Ole Miss, at South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, at Arkansas, vs. Florida, vs. Auburn.  I bet they end up 7-9.

Kentucky goes to Vandy, vs. Georgia, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss, at LSU, at Tennessee, vs. Florida.  I'd say 9-7.

Don't see Vandy and Georgia making it above .500.

Leaves it to us.  At LSU (21 RPI), Auburn (112), at Ole Miss (107), Florida (14), Alabama (49), at Tennessee (3), MSU (111), at Georgia (71).

I feel pretty good about beating Auburn, Alabama and MSU.  Ought to get at least one more beyond that.  Question is where that will leave our RPI.  We're 67th in the latest RPI.  Look at all the turkeys remaining on our schedule.

The Hogs have to beat one of the good teams in the SEC if they are going to get into the NCAAT.  That's my call.

Here's the SEC's rankings in the latest RPI, through last weekend's games.

3. Tennessee
14. Florida
21. LSU
35. Kentucky
49. Alabama
63. Vanderbilt
67. Arkansas
71. Georgia
81. South Carolina
107. Ole Miss
111. Mississippi State
112. Auburn

Our best win?  Missouri State, 36th RPI, 15-6 record.

Next? Kansas, 56th RPI, 15-6 record.

Then? Vanderbilt, 63rd RPI, 12-7 record.

And? South Carolina, 81st RPI, 11-10 record.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

Florida & Tennessee still remaining on their schedule. (Arkansas still has LSU tonight) if both can take 2 0f 3 from the above schools listed that should boost their RPI a great deal.

[hogfan064]

It's as simple as this.  Hogs must finish 9-7 and get 1 win in the conference tourney.  If this occurs at 21-10 the NCAA will take us. 

[silvertip]

Good analysis, hogsanity. As you say, one big problem is a lot of the really weak conferences, that desrve only one bid, will get two when the conference champ loses in their year end tourney. THAT is how the SEC or ACC---and guess which one---will lose out on getting 6.

I assert that the TV-market driven national media is behind a lot of the "SEC is really down this year" talk, in order to convince the casual fans to bend over & grab their ankles come Selection Sunday. I mean, they been SAYING for weeks that the SEC is weak, so it MUST BE RIGHT.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

Memphis & Gonzaga have been playing down to their level of competiton in the weaker conferences.  They will recieve a very frighting wake up call come this March.

[hogsanity]

I agree, we gotta go 5-3.  Which I think is very doable.

THe real danger I see for the hogs is going 4-4 finish 8-8 and having bama go 7-9.  We get 2nd in the West and DO NOT PLAY A THURSDAY game in the sect.  Finishing 3rd gets you the 6th team in the EAST and thats a game we should win. And it would be a win desperatly needed.   

[Biggus Piggus]

Oh yeah.

I don't see how the ACC would get six teams in the Dance this year.

The league has five teams in the RPI top 50, one of which--Maryland--has a 1-4 road record.  The ACC should get five in, if the Terrapins come around.

The Big 12 will argue for five, but it has three bubble teams and three at the bottom that look really bad.  I bet they get four just because there's so many bubble teams this year.

The Big East has nine teams in the RPI top 25, and every one of them will get in the Dance I bet.  That soaks up many of the seeming excess slots, along with the Big Ten's 6-7.

Pac 10's lousy, but I get they get four bids.

Great year for the Missouri Valley to be up.  That league could get three bids.

1 America East
1-2 Atlantic 10
5 ACC
4 Big 12
9 Big East
1 Big Sky
1 Big South
7 Big Ten
1 Big West
3 Colonial
2 CUSA
1 Horizon
1 Ivy
1 Metro Atlantic
1 MAC
1 Mid-Continent
1 MEAC
3-4 Missouri Valley
1 Mountain West
1 Northeast
1 OVC
4 Pac 10
1 Patriot
4-5 SEC
1 Southern
1 Southland
1 SWAC
1 Sun Belt
1 West Coast
2 WAC

[Biggus Piggus]

Florida & Tennessee still remaining on their schedule. (Arkansas still has LSU tonight) if both can take 2 0f 3 from the above schools listed that should boost their RPI a great deal.

That's a serious longshot.

[mbgrulz]

Memphis & Gonzaga have been playing down to their level of competiton in the weaker conferences.  They will recieve a very frighting wake up call come this March.

yea, they play in weak conferences, but i bet those guys are a lot better when they know they can come in a be a giant killer. its easy to get up to play against someone as good as memphis and gonzaga.

[silvertip]

BP, you pretty much explained for yourself why ACC only got 3 bids in '99 & '00.

What I'm interested in is this: What about all the talk of the SEC being down" IF the SEC finishes above the almighty ACC in the RPI---then will the Duke fans around here admit that the ACC was "down" just as much?

I expect 5 SEC bids, with Hawgs & Bama fighting for the 5th spot. But if a team like Vandy, (Hawgs or Bama), even UGA, can get to 8-8 AND win 3 in the SECT, then 6 might be possible.