Lost Sacks & TFL (negative yardage)

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Here's how we ranked for 2014 with the other SEC teams in terms of Negative Plays (Sacks and TFL). The stat all the way to the right reflects how often a negative play was created (1 in every 6.7 plays).

Below that is the list of players that we lost that created negative plays last year. The average SEC offensive drive is about 5.5 to 6.0 plays so that helps in understanding the impact of the frequency with which these negative plays are created.

Who is going to step up and fill in for these guys that we lost and either replace or exceed the negative yardage plays that they created?

2014  Negative Plays Created to Opportunities                  
SEC Rank   Teams   Neg Plays   Off Plays   Neg Yds   P/Att      Neg Play Ratio 1:
      1           MIZ         149          1005         746       5.0                 6.7
      2           TEN         126           892          529       4.2                 7.1
      3           MIS         127           915          616       4.9                 7.2
      4           FLA          117           869          595       5.1                7.4
      4           ALA          127           945          565       4.4                7.4
      6           ARK          105           821          573       5.5                7.8
      7           MSU         121           977          545       4.5                8.1
      8           A&M         112           992          447       4.0                8.9
      8           AUB         103           914          432       4.2                8.9
      8           LSU          95            845          359       3.8                8.9
     11          GEO          99            905          579       5.8               9.1
     12          KTY           91            888          436       4.8               9.8
     12          VAN          86            844          354       4.1               9.8
     14          SCA          66            904          325       4.9              13.7

Arkansas Negative Plays Lost                  
Player   Neg Plays   Neg Yds   P/Neg Play        P/Att     Neg Ratio 1:   
Flowers      21.5         166           7.7             0.026          38.2   
B. Mitchell   3.5           16           4.6              0.004         234.6   
Philon        16.0           95          5.9              0.019          51.3   
Spaight      11.5          33           2.9              0.014          71.4   
Carr            0.5           1            1.0              0.001        1642.0   
Turner         1.5          3.6          2.4              0.002         539.8   
Washington   1             3           3.0              0.001         821.0   

Total Lost   55.5        317.6        5.7         
% Total     52.9%     55.4%            

[razorbacker3]

Why doesn't the individual negative plays lost equal the team negative plays?

[HogShat]

Why doesn't the individual negative plays lost equal the team negative plays?

I think its because those are the negative plays by players no longer on the team.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Why doesn't the individual negative plays lost equal the team negative plays?

We didn't lose everyone from the team who created negative plays last year, some are returning.

[East TN HAWG]

The most amazing stat not mentioned is that our opponents had fewer snaps (821) than anyone else.  I understand that Bama and Miz played more games. 

That means that our run game was successful, and probably more three and outs.  It keeps your defense fresh, and fewer substitutions (do not need as much depth).  It is also part of the reason that our defense ranked so high statistically last year.

[PorkSoda]

I'm looking for

D. Wise to replace Flowers

T. Johnson to replace Philon

B. Ellis to replace Spaight

[Bacon_Bitz]

This is an important point, it's going to be really hard to replace losing two stud playmakers on the defensive line.  I have confidence that Smith will know how to adjust, though.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The most amazing stat not mentioned is that our opponents had fewer snaps (821) than anyone else.  I understand that Bama and Miz played more games. 

That means that our run game was successful, and probably more three and outs.  It keeps your defense fresh, and fewer substitutions (do not need as much depth).  It is also part of the reason that our defense ranked so high statistically last year.

Another unmentioned stat is that when we did create a negative play it was for the 2nd most negative yardage per play in the SEC at 5.5 yards. Georgia was the leader at 5.8 yards per play.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

So how significant was Trey Flowers contribution in terms of negative plays? As an example, let's compare his performance last season to that of the other 10 DE's taken ahead of him in the NFL Draft.

                Sacks   Yds/Sack   Sack Ratio   TFL   Yds/TFL   TFL Ratio   Neg Plays   Yds/Neg   Neg Ratio
Williams       7          6.6           1:78.3      9.5      6.0         1:47.7        16.5           6.2         1:60.7
Ray           14.5        6.5           1:32.8     25.5     4.8         1:20.8        40.0           5.4         1:25.2
Smith         9.0         6.7           1:56.2     15.0     5.4         1:31.4        24.0           5.9         1:40.7
Orchard     18.5        6.4           1:24.3     21.0     5.9         1:24.1        39.5           6.1         1:24.2
Golden       10.0       6.6           1:47.5      20.0    4.8          1:26.6        30.0           4.4        1:33.5
Odigizuwa   6.0        8.7           1:82.8      11.5     5.2         1:43.9        17.5           6.4         1:57.3
Hunter        1.5        4.7          1:256.7     13.0     3.6         1:35.4        14.5           3.7         1:58.3
Andersen     8.5        6.5          1:50.6      11.5     4.3         1:38.5         20.0          5.0         1:43.7
Grissom      3.5        7.7          1:145.7      6.5      5.8         1:70.5         10.0          6.5         1:96.8
Flowers       6.0       11.8          1:65.3      15.5     6.1         1:27.7         21.5          7.7         1:38.2

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Flowers:
Tied for 7th in the number of Sacks.
#1 in yards per sack.
#5 in sack ratio.
#4 in TFL.
#1 in yards per TFL.
#4 in TFL ratio.
#5 in total negative plays.
#1 in negative yards per play.
#4 in negative play ratio.

You can qualify all of the factors that make a great DE but it really all comes down to what they have produced against the level of competition that they have faced. For Flowers to have been the 11th pick of all DE's is just wrong, but it does mean that the team that landed him got a tremendous value. Flowers should probably have been a 2nd round selection based on his production against the best in the country.

[HoggyCat]

Why doesn't the individual negative plays lost equal the team negative plays?

Penalties? Unforced errors such as a Stoernover?

[onebadrubi]

I'm looking for

D. Wise to replace Flowers

T. Johnson to replace Philon

B. Ellis to replace Spaight

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[MuskogeeHogFan]

By the way, you hear the media and some of us on here questioning whether or not we will be able to replace, let alone improve upon, the lost production of Sacks and TFL that we will experience from losing Flowers, Philon and Spaight.

The truth is that in losing them, as good as they were and as much as they contributed to our defense in terms of leadership (which potentially could be the biggest loss as leaders on the team if others don't choose to step up and take on that responsibility), we have to replace an average of 1 sack per game, 3.3 TFL and overall, 4.3 negative plays per game in terms of production. I think that can not only be accomplished with year two of Robb Smith, but exceeded.