2015-2016 NBA Picks.

[ErieHog]

Reviving an old concept of NBA preview discussion.

I'll go team by team, and conference by conference.  We'll start in the East today.


Atlantic Division:

Toronto Raptors: 48-34   A pretty decent team in a bad conference.   They are going to suffer, in terms of interior D, from the loss of Amir Johnson.   On the upside, Fat Kyle Lowery is apparently done, as he's lost some weight in the offseason.  Maybe he doesnt fall apart in the playoffs this year.  Derozan is in a contract year, so maybe he puts up ridiculous numbers.  I'll guess this team wins 48, mostly on the strength of a bad Eastern Conference.    Kind of a treading water situation.  They could regress, but eh.  I'm just not a big fan of the middle of the Eastern Conference.

Boston Celtics: 45-37    A team that finally has a decent rim protector, and that picked up David Lee for extra offense.  I really like Thomas as a second tier guy,  and the roster is littered with young, above average NBA players.   They probably go just as far as the development of some of their young players develop.  I may be undersellng them slightly-- they're sort of the inverted Raptors, for me.    I'm guessing a little low, but with good upside.   They finished last year well, and can defend with anyone, but I think it was a little inflated as they played a ton of teams in tank mode towards the end of last year.  Brad Stevens is one of my three or four favorite NBA coaches.

New York Knicks: 29-53   They've got Derek Fisher as their HC (not good);  their biggest pick up is Aaron Afflalo; Pat Riley is making noise about possibly travelling with the team!   They're still a basket case.   Unless Melo is in full on  'Watch me play, deal for me!' mode,  they're going to be really bad. The upside is that you know they won't tank, as they don't own their own pick in the draft next year, so they have every reason to play out the season hard-- or at least as hard as a Knicks team can play.  Maybe everything comes into alignment, and they win 35.....but....I just don't see it.   They're just bad, bad basketball.

Brooklyn Nets:  27-55  -   I'm not sure how 3 of the 6 worst teams in the league ended up in the Atlantic Division, but they did.    Joe is nearer the end than the middle;  Jarrett Jack is going to trigger the offense (yikes);  the biggest acquisition is  Bargnani; the upside is they don't own their draft picks-- Boston essentially owns their picks for the next 3 years, so the Nets have no reason to tank, and may get a few late season garbage wins.   The most unwatchable product in the NBA this year will be Nets-Knicks games, because at least the other awful teams have some bright spot or future to look forward to that you can sort of see develop.   Those games will be professional basketball purgatory.

Philadelphia- 22-60 -   Just another brutal year for basketball in Philly, which is a shame.  They're a great franchise, run by people who are gaming the system very heavily.   They did add a few real basketball players to the roster, but Embiid is looking like a bad version of Sam Bowie.  Nerlins will protect the rim, Okafor will give them legitimate offense...but....what else?

Central Division:

Cleveland Caveliers: 54-28  I don't think they're remarkably better than last year;  I hate Thompson's contract.  Still, a healthy Kevin Love will help offset some issues, though they still need to figure out load sharing when all three of their primary offensive options are on the Court.   They should win the East, and  I don't see many big big challenges for them, but they're not young, and they're in the spotlight.   That wears on teams.

Chicago Bulls: 51-31  -   One of the deepest teams in the league, their decision to bench Noah and star Mirotric is interesting.  The frontcourt is very deep, but the inability of Rose to stay healthy is one of the upside caps here.  The question is how the defense regresses.  Maybe they play well for their new coach.

Indiana Pacers: 48-34    I think they're going to be very good, once they figure out how to play small ball with Paul George as a 4.   That lineup will give people fits, in terms of trying to defend it.   They're always well coached with Vogel, and are so much more athletic with this look, that they'll escape those ugly games with the Knicks/Nets/Garbage of the league

Milwaukee Bucks- 44-38 -   A young team brings in Greg Monroe to give them more post presence.  I wonder how he fits in their athletic, small ball lineups.    Giannis is a joy to watch,but I think they'll fold a little under the increased attention they're getting.    They could use more shooting, too, but they're athletic as can be.  A great league pass team.  I want to see what Jabai Parker really is, as an NBA player.   They'll need the offense he provides to stabilize their second unit.

Detroit Pistons:  37-45 -    I love their coaching, but still don't like the roster.  They're going to outwork teams some nights.  Stan Van Gundy is another excellent coach, but they're just not talented enough to break through just yet. 

Southeast Division:

Atlanta Hawks:   52-30  -   A pretty good team that people are going to sleep on again.  Splitter is a nice extra big body, and may be able to play off Horford.    The Eastern Conference Mini-Spurs, they still lack the dynamic talent that can put them over the top in the playoffs.     They're older than you think, really.

Miami Heat:  49-33  -   I love some of the young players on this roster;  Winslow has huge potential, they've got good veterans to act as leaders,  Bosh is back.  Whiteside is back;  Dragic is my favorite PG that no one talks about, at all.    They'll be a fun team to watch.

Washington Wizards:  49-33 -  A good young team on the rise.   Beal needs to play, for them to make a splash this year, in terms of altering the NBA landscape.   The loss of PP will mean having to have Otto Porter grow up, and someone else be the vetran leader.   They're sneaky goodish, but not overwhelming.    Gary Neal is a nice addition.

Orlando Magic:   40-44  -  They're going to defend and they're going to be fun to watch.   They're not going to be as good offensively as a lot of other teams, particularly on the perimeter.  Skiles is a pretty good coach, and losing Jacque Vaughn may be worth 5 games by itself. 

Charlotte Hornets: 31-51   At least Al Jefferson figured out  that Popeyes wasn't an NBA diet?  Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Al Jefferson, maybe Frank makes some impact?    I just can't see them making a big splash.

Man....a lot of disappointing basketball in the Eastern Conference.

Playoff Seedings:

1) Cleveland
2)  Atlanta
3) Chicago
4) Miami
5) Washington
6) Toronto
7) Indiana
Boston

[ErieHog]

Western Conference Preview!

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors-  63-19    -  A tremendous team that is getting very little respect, considering they are returning almost everyone (minus David Lee's all offense-no D);   they've been very healthy lately,  and may be due to regress just a tad in regular season play.    Steve Kerr missing time on the bench won't help.   Should be the favorites to repeat, but the whole dynamic of 'they caught every break possible in the playoffs' may be overstated.   

Los Angeles Clippers:   57-25    A deeper team, that settled the Jordan question, and that stabilized the veteran leadership role by adding Paul Pierce.     I just like the parts of this team far better than the sum of them;  you still can't play Jordan in meaningful minutes down the stretch, and Chris Paul is going to eventually show some signs of aging.   If he goes down, they will be playing Austin Rivers for long stretches as a starting NBA PG.   That's the real shot at regression that you see on this roster.     Still a bad chemistry team, as I don't think D'Andre or Blake Griffin will listen to Paul Pierce-- they're tone deaf.

Sacramento Kings:  35-47 --  I admit it;  I'm a shameless Boogie Cousins fan.    He's a 25-12-4-2 kinda guy,  stuck in basketball Hell.   The Kings have no leadership.  They're depending on George Karl being the Angry Pont Guard Whisperer with Rajon Rondo.     It is a shame that one of the top guys in the league is saddled with this awful franchise.     Boogie is one of maybe 5 guys who legitmately demands an instant double team on the block-- the problem is he will be playing lineups with Willie Caulie Stein and Rono, where the are playing offense 3 on 5, effectively-- and teams will be able to triple him.  Long year ahead.  Wouldn't be surprised for him to demand out, if they stink out of he gate.

Phoenix Suns: 34-48   A team that went from 3 PGs, to no real PGs;  they depend too much on a second tier guy, in Markeef Morris, as their big-moment guy.      Tyson Chandler is sort of a viable rim protector, but I just don't see enough offense out of these guys to make noise in the West.  Might win 40 games or even contend for an Eastern Conference playoff spot, if in the East.

Los Angeles Lakers:  27-55  --  I'm optimistic about the future of the Lakers;  this is actually about 3 games better than Vegas expects them to be.     Roy Hibbert is not a great Kobe teammate-- if you thought Kobe was upset wth Dwight, just wait until Hibbert plays a 5 minute stretch where he never gets beyond either foul line, because the pace of play stays ahead of him.    It may be your best chance to see an on-court murder this season in the NBA

Southwest Division:

Houston Rockets - 58-24    A very deep team; Ty Lawson gives them backcourt options they haven't had before, and may take some of the ballhandling load off of James Harden.   The question will be whether or not Harden still gets to the line at an elite rate, or if the uptick in shooting that not working off the dribble should bring, will offset the lost finishing opportunities and FTA.    Lawson should also keep second unit scoring humming for the Rockets,  and a healthy Dwight Howard is still as good as it gets in the NBA post.

San Antonio Spurs: 54-28  - They'll take nights off.  They'll play funky lineups in November, with an eye toward what they can be doing in May;  they're going to have to figure out how to work in the left elbow Iso game that LeMarcus prefers, into the Spurs motion game.    They will hold Tony Parker together with super glue and duct tape;   Manu Ginobli's hairline will receed to the Alamo.     They'll secure another playoff spot, and give people fits.   Same Old Spurs.

New Orleans Pelicans: 50-32  -  Anthony Davis is the best young player in the NBA right now, and the team is going to have a significant coaching upgrade, particularly on the offensive end of the court.  Yes, Jrue Holiday is out for a while, and you  don't know what you are going to get in terms of the rest of the roster's health,  but Davis is the next Duncan/LeBron/Dirk, in that he alone will carry this team to 50 wins every year, so long as you put a semi-serviceable NBA team around him.  They have one, so this is the start of the Davis string of 50s.

Memphis Grizzlies: 49-33   A prime regression candidate, that is seeing its window slammed shut.  EVentually,  Z-Bo's health is going to give.   They play a style of basketball that is out of step with the NBA game, and that is showing its age when they play against decent teams.     They still can't shoot from the perimeter, and will have to ugly up every game they play, to win.       I think they're still a year away from blowing it up, and starting over-- maybe two.  They'd be wise to do it now, though.

Dallas Mavericks:  36-46   -  A playoff team last year, mainly on the strength of Rick Carlisle making Monta a bonafide NBA player again.    Dirk is older, the roster isn't any better, they just have the feel of a franchise coming unravelled.  They have the talent to win 30 games, but the coaching to win 45.     I think they fall to the lower end of that scale this season.

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder: 54-28   --  I admit, this is a straight up hedge pick, based on their health.  I don't like betting on guys coming off 3 surgeries in a single season playing 82 games.     They could easily push past the 60 win barrier, if everything goes well.     I think they spend more of this year learning each other, and Billy Donovan, and worrying about getting to the playoffs as healthy as they can be.

Utah Jazz: 41-41   They need something from Exum, if they're going to take a Leap, instead of a leap.  Gobert is developing into a centerpiece for the Jazz, and someone has to make strides to take the last spot in the Western Confernce playfoff picture.

Minnesota Timberwolve: 28-54 -  A big jump this year, into competitiveness.   The brining in of KAT will help across the board, particularly in interior defense.   They can't be as unealthy as last season, when they set NBA records for games lost to projected starters.   They'll be a team that's two or three years from challenging for a playoff spot, ut that will make the first step this year. 

Denver Nuggets: 27-55  -   Just not a good team.  A lot of pretty okay parts, but nobody you want to build a frachise around.   This is a team in desperate need of a franchise guy.   Maybe Mudiay can be that guy, but it is a -long- way down the road.

Portland Trailblazers:  27-55 -   Lose 5 of their top 6 rotation players -- only Lillard returns.  They need just about everything, and nothing on the current roster screams 'NBA level replacement player'.     Blazers fans will miss LeMarcus far more than he misses them, as they fall out of the Western Conference playoff field.   May be worse than the Lakers, if the youngest Lakers come on this year.



Playoff Seeding:

1) Golden State Warriors
2) Houston Rockets
3) Los Angeles Clipeprs
4) San Antonio Spurs
5) Oklahoma City Thunder
6) New Orleans Pelicans
7) Memphis Grizzlies
Utah Jazz

[ErieHog]

25-30 games into the season is a good place to revisit

Major mistakes?  Underrating the Warriors and Spurs.  Beauty in the game of basketball is so rare, and they give it to us every night that the Spurs don't have a slew of DNP- Old

Nets and Lakers  I picked to be way better than they are; same, somehow with the 76ers.

Maybe the Rockets can rebound, but man, they've underwhelmed.