Paul Finebaum's Predictions on SEC Win Totals

[hogcard1964]

Wisconsin's worst season since CBB left was 9 wins.  And they're on their second coach since then.

It's sad to say, but that Wisconsin program is top notch compared to ours.

However that conference hasn't been on par with the SEC for 30 years.  Actually it's been awful compared to the SEC.

[gchamblee]

I mean, the program was in good shape when CBB took over for Alvarez.  He didn't crash it or anything, but as of now he's not looking any more impressive than Gary Andersen or Paul Chryst.

Ill take CBB over Andersen every day of the week. Chryst is a good coach no doubt, as CBB is well aware since he was one of his assistants. Ya the program was in good shape when CBB took over, and it was in excellent shape when he left it. Are you implying that CBB isn't worthy of a kudos for that? You complain when people berate CBP, yet you do the same thing to CBB. You look for reasons to discredit him.

[Hogwild]

Ill take CBB over Andersen every day of the week. Chryst is a good coach no doubt, as CBB is well aware since he was one of his assistants. Ya the program was in good shape when CBB took over, and it was in excellent shape when he left it. Are you implying that CBB isn't worthy of a kudos for that? You complain when people berate CBP, yet you do the same thing to CBB. You look for reasons to discredit him.

I'm really curious to see how Anderson does at Oregon State.   He completely turned Utah State around, they won 19 games in two years in Madison.  Wasn't shocked the he left the Badgers and shocked that he left them for Oregon State.

[Wildhog]

Ill take CBB over Andersen every day of the week. Chryst is a good coach no doubt, as CBB is well aware since he was one of his assistants. Ya the program was in good shape when CBB took over, and it was in excellent shape when he left it. Are you implying that CBB isn't worthy of a kudos for that? You complain when people berate CBP, yet you do the same thing to CBB. You look for reasons to discredit him.

Sure, he's deserving of credit for maintaining success at UW.

But yeah, I think it should call into question how impressive that really is, considering both coaches that followed him had similar success.  I don't think that's unfair.

[hawgon]

In any profession, you can usually spot someone who isn't working hard enough and who does not pay attention to the details by inconsistent results.  When things click, they look like rockstars.  The next time you see them, they look like a hot mess.  If there is anything that has been a hallmark of our teams under Bielema, it is inconsistency.  You never know what you are going to get and it changes from game to game and often from quarter to quarter.

[hogcard1964]

I'm really curious to see how Anderson does at Oregon State.   He completely turned Utah State around, they won 19 games in two years in Madison.  Wasn't shocked the he left the Badgers and shocked that he left them for Oregon State.

Alvarez is an inconsolable human being.

[12247]

Paul Finebaum, the expert, has just set Jeff Long up to be successful.  Jeff now can claim 6 wins was what was expected.  If we win 5, well, durn that is about as close to 6 as you can get so yeah it wasn't what we hoped but goodness, just 1 win off, can't get too upset about that.  7 wins gets the big extension and likely larger buyout.  8 wins and BB is here for years to come.  9 wins, which I feel is where he should be, would get him a blank contract, already signed by Jeff, to complete as he sees fit.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Paul Finebaum, the expert, has just set Jeff Long up to be successful.  Jeff now can claim 6 wins was what was expected.  If we win 5, well, durn that is about as close to 6 as you can get so yeah it wasn't what we hoped but goodness, just 1 win off, can't get too upset about that.  7 wins gets the big extension and likely larger buyout.  8 wins and BB is here for years to come.  9 wins, which I feel is where he should be, would get him a blank contract, already signed by Jeff, to complete as he sees fit.

Silly.

[SWarkansasman]

O my!  Did you actually hear Paul say the word "Arkansas" ?   Every other word out of Pauls mouth is either "Nick" or "Alabama".  Then he takes a call from "Millie" in Missouri.  I do record him hoping to actually hear the word "Arkansas" but very, very seldom do I hear it.  Takes me about 5 minute to zip thru it , and then delete.

[TDHawgs]

Sad to say, but looks about right to me. Until I see our defense actually get better, then 6 wins is about right. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sad to say, but looks about right to me. Until I see our defense actually get better, then 6 wins is about right. 

We will win more than 7 games this season, 8 as a minimum. For me, 8 isn't enough.

[hawganatic]

Paul Finebaum, the expert, has just set Jeff Long up to be successful.  Jeff now can claim 6 wins was what was expected.  If we win 5, well, durn that is about as close to 6 as you can get so yeah it wasn't what we hoped but goodness, just 1 win off, can't get too upset about that.  7 wins gets the big extension and likely larger buyout.  8 wins and BB is here for years to come.  9 wins, which I feel is where he should be, would get him a blank contract, already signed by Jeff, to complete as he sees fit.

Yup, one big conspiracy by Finebaum and the SEC to keep Arkansas saddled into mediocrity...

[Youngsta71701]

And we will all be upset or depressed while CBB is given more time to win. Not fun to think about at all but it wouldn't shock me.

I'm telling y'all we need to go ahead and bring in Chip Kelly...

[The Hawg Marshal]

This time next year Chip will be at A&M.

[Wildhog]

This time next year Chip will be at A&M.

That's a terrifying possibility.

[The Hawg Marshal]

That's a terrifying possibility.

I honestly believe it will happen.

[hawgon]

I honestly believe it will happen.

Some ADs don't care if the coach is a big old meanie butt.

[Al Boarland]

We will win more than 7 games this season, 8 as a minimum. For me, 8 isn't enough.

You've gone mad if you think 8 wins is the floor for this team.  I could see going out on a limb and predicting a high ceiling, but with all the question marks surrounding this team setting the floor at 8 is ridiculous.

[Hoginsavga]

I'm sure the team is disappointed with last season, but so are the other 14 teams in our league. I'm not sure what kind of mental edge you can get from that perspective. It just comes down to talent 9 times out of 10.

So coaching only matters one time out of ten? Give me a break. Tell that to Frank Broyles, Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield, Bobby Petrino, or, must I say, even Nick Saban.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You've gone mad if you think 8 wins is the floor for this team.  I could see going out on a limb and predicting a high ceiling, but with all the question marks surrounding this team setting the floor at 8 is ridiculous.

You are just positively, negative, no matter what is posted about our team, so what difference does it make? And if you read again, I didn't set the floor at 8 and I didn't say that was good enough...but by all means carry on with your daily complaints.

[Al Boarland]

So coaching only matters one time out of ten? Give me a break. Tell that to Frank Broyles, Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield, Bobby Petrino, or, must I say, even Nick Saban.

Sure coaching matters though not as much as talent. I'm not how you can come to the conclusion that we have an edge in coaching.

[HiggiePiggy]

Sure coaching matters though not as much as talent. I'm not how you can come to the conclusion that we have an edge in coaching.

We don't, but we did.  Coaching makes a huge difference.

[cosmodrum]

We will win more than 7 games this season, 8 as a minimum. For me, 8 isn't enough.

I just dont know how you can say that with any confidence given the evidence. I'm talking about season wins before bowl...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I just dont know how you can that with any confidence given the evidence. I'm talking about season wins before bowl...

Me too.

[cosmodrum]

Me too.

8 is really the minimum for me too with this schedule, but I just cant let myself believe that we won't blow a couple.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

8 is really the minimum for me too with this schedule, but I just cant let myself believe that we won't blow a couple.

In another couple of threads I have pointed out that really (to your point) I can see where we could have gone 9, 10 and 10 in the last 3 seasons. Woulda, shoulda, coulda, but really and truly, we were well within reach of those wins. We didn't get there for a variety of reasons that most of us find mystifying. I understand where you are coming from, I'm kinda there too. But I also feel like the "worm has to turn" for us at some point where we stop blowing an entire foot off at times each season.

Since 2013 we have baffled the national sports media who have at times picked us higher and we finish lower, or they pick us lower and we finish higher. They are probably as perplexed as we are when it comes to accurately predicting what we will see on the field each season.

This season I believe that we have the talent to play at a very high level and win 9, maybe even 10 games. But those "variables" that we can't predict seem to sneak up on us. The variables, for the most part, have gone against us so far. I think that this year we surprise a lot of folks and play way over our heads compared to what they project.

That said, I want to see us win 9 at the very least and I think that we need to win that many at this point of the program if Bielema hopes to have a future here. BUT, I'm not about to take that to the bank at this point. Too many unanswered questions at this point.

[Hoginsavga]

We don't, but we did.  Coaching makes a huge difference.

Thank you Higgie. You get it.

[cosmodrum]

In another couple of threads I have pointed out that really (to your point) I can see where we could have gone 9, 10 and 10 in the last 3 seasons. Woulda, shoulda, coulda, but really and truly, we were well within reach of those wins. We didn't get there for a variety of reasons that most of us find mystifying. I understand where you are coming from, I'm kinda there too. But I also feel like the "worm has to turn" for us at some point where we stop blowing an entire foot off at times each season.

Since 2013 we have baffled the national sports media who have at times picked us higher and we finish lower, or they pick us lower and we finish higher. They are probably as perplexed as we are when it comes to accurately predicting what we will see on the field each season.

This season I believe that we have the talent to play at a very high level and win 9, maybe even 10 games. But those "variables" that we can't predict seem to sneak up on us. The variables, for the most part, have gone against us so far. I think that this year we surprise a lot of folks and play way over our heads compared to what they project.

That said, I want to see us win 9 at the very least and I think that we need to win that many at this point of the program if Bielema hopes to have a future here. BUT, I'm not about to take that to the bank at this point. Too many unanswered questions at this point.

Yeah, I suppose I'm with you. Need a couple breaks to go our way, and the meltdowns need to be a thing of the past. I'm probably just shellshocked from the 2016 finish, not to mention the 28 unanswered points against TCU (thanks for the throat slash, Kenny "Trill") and the 38 unanswered against aTm.

[Tarheelhawg]

Optimist here,  I see a floor of 8 wins.  Yeah, I have had a couple beers, but I can still see straight.  Beilema, knows how to build a program even in the SEC.  We are talking about 8 wins.  Completely doable.  I see depth building in critical areas.  Not there yet but on the way...

[Polecat]

I know that, but if he doesn't knock out 9 wins in 2017, the process of gathering and vetting candidates may begin in more earnest in order to put together a succession plan following the 2018 season.

Remind me: What is the monetary difference in buyout from 2017 to 2018? Thanks in advance

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Remind me: What is the monetary difference in buyout from 2017 to 2018? Thanks in advance

I don't know but he is only contracted through 2018. Short of the Hogs going 4-8, 5-7 in 2017 the buyout won't even come into the conversation.

[rhames]

I don't know but he is only contracted through 2018. Short of the Hogs going 4-8, 5-7 in 2017 the buyout won't even come into the conversation.

No. His contract got extended to 2020 or 2022 I believe. Basically for recruiting. Happenes everywhere

Contract length means nothing though. All about buy out.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

No. His contract got extended to 2020 or 2022 I believe. Basically for recruiting. Happenes everywhere

Contract length means nothing though. All about buy out.

Yep, you are right, I guess I forgot about that. And frankly, I don't care for that, whether for recruiting or not. I really wanted the pressure to produce to be there with a reduced payout for termination without cause.

"the contract's buyout terms are extremely friendly to Bielema, who would be owed $15.4 million if he's fired any time before 2018 and a minimum of $7.9 million if if he's fired any time before 2020. But Bielema would only owe Arkansas $4 million if he leaves in 2015 and would owe progressively less over the course of the contract down to only $500,000 on Jan. 1, 2019".

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/arkansas-gives-bret-bielema-raise-extension-through-2020/

[rhames]

Yep, you are right, I guess I forgot about that. And frankly, I don't care for that, whether for recruiting or not. I really wanted the pressure to produce to be there with a reduced payout for termination without cause.

"the contract's buyout terms are extremely friendly to Bielema, who would be owed $15.4 million if he's fired any time before 2018 and a minimum of $7.9 million if if he's fired any time before 2020. But Bielema would only owe Arkansas $4 million if he leaves in 2015 and would owe progressively less over the course of the contract down to only $500,000 on Jan. 1, 2019".

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/arkansas-gives-bret-bielema-raise-extension-through-2020/

My biggest beef has always been the buy out was not 2 ways. We are married to him but he isn't to us.

I like Jeff Long but that is the weirdest thing he has done. He would never admit it but I bet he would do that differently of he could.


Hopefully Bret suceeds and we can stop talking about buy outs.

[HF#1]

He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

So will Arkansas, in my opinion.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

My biggest beef has always been the buy out was not 2 ways. We are married to him but he isn't to us.

I like Jeff Long but that is the weirdest thing he has done. He would never admit it but I bet he would do that differently of he could.


Hopefully Bret suceeds and we can stop talking about buy outs.

Whether it is Bielema or whether it is Nick Saban, you are right, when it comes to buyouts either way, what is good for the goose, is good for the gander as well.