Early advanced stats rankings for 2015 - Arkansas at #12 in S&P+

[Bacon_Bitz]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/5/20/8625261/2015-college-football-rankings-projections?_ga=1.68210969.947440097.1432130067

S&P+ is a data-driven ranking that takes various measures of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives for each team across all of a season's plays.  Arkansas ended up #5 overall last year despite our 7-6 record, because we lost a lost of close games to teams that were also ranked highly in S&P+ (Alabama #2, Auburn #4, Georgia #7, Miss St #12, Missouri #23, Texas A&M #30) and really took care of business and dominated on both sides of the ball in our victories. 

The preseason rankings are a little more guesswork, because they take last seasons on-the-field data and mix it with a 5-year performance measure to give consistently good teams a little boost, a measure factoring in the strength of how many starters are returning, and a measure taking into account the new blood from recruiting.  We drop from #5 to a projected ranking of #12, not bad at all considering we have the lost Smiley year and CBB's first year in our five-year history and CBB's recruiting and development style does not lend itself to being judged solely on the basis of stars.  What's most encouraging is that we are ranked 3rd in the strength of our returning starters.

Early opponents:

UTEP - 99th
Toledo - 69th
Texas A&M - 22nd
Tennessee - 20th
Alabama - 1st

A&M and Tenner both get pretty good bumps because of their recruiting history.

[lefty08]

I'm a nerd so I like stuff like this. Any idea how accurate this has been over the last 5 years at predicting how teams will fare?

[Bacon_Bitz]

I'm a nerd so I like stuff like this. Any idea how accurate this has been over the last 5 years at predicting how teams will fare?

Eh, doesn't seem like the preseason predictions are all the great (i.e., not much more insight that typical prognostication by sports writers.  Here are the 2014 preseason predictions: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/7/5387456/2014-college-football-rankings-football-outsiders-projections.  They got 3 of the 4 playoff teams right, but a lot of casual fans could have picked Bama, FSU, and Oregon last year, too.  Ohio State had a preseason rank of 10 and South Carolina was 4.

[rwspear]

apparently we only have three impact players returning.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Eh, doesn't seem like the preseason predictions are all the great (i.e., not much more insight that typical prognostication by sports writers.  Here are the 2014 preseason predictions: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/7/5387456/2014-college-football-rankings-football-outsiders-projections.  They got 3 of the 4 playoff teams right, but a lot of casual fans could have picked Bama, FSU, and Oregon last year, too.  Ohio State had a preseason rank of 10 and South Carolina was 4.

Then again, if you were to look at the preseason AP or USA Today polls in recent years, you would find similar hit-and-miss results.  There are always some teams that are preseason darlings, but fall by the wayside.  Ole Miss in 2009, and - sadly - us in 2012 - come to mind.

On another note, while it's good to be #12, I do note we are 6th in terms of SEC teams in the rankings; 4 of which we play.  Just another sobering reminder of just how challenging the SEC schedule is year after year.

[The NewEra]

Then again, if you were to look at the preseason AP or USA Today polls in recent years, you would find similar hit-and-miss results.  There are always some teams that are preseason darlings, but fall by the wayside.  Ole Miss in 2009, and - sadly - us in 2012 - come to mind.

On another note, while it's good to be #12, I do note we are 6th in terms of SEC teams in the rankings; 4 of which we play.  Just another sobering reminder of just how challenging the SEC schedule is year after year.

"Sobering" is a perfect word to describe our schedule again this year in the SEC.

[Bacon_Bitz]

apparently we only have three impact players returning.

No, we are ranked 3rd overall in terms of the expected impact of our returning starters.  Only Ohio State and Ole Miss rank ahead of us.

[AugustaHog]

These statistics are pretty accurate once you get into November and it's more about substance over opinion.  I killed it in my bowl pool because I pored over a ton of different in-depth stats.  When I ignored it and went with my gut, was when I got in trouble.  These analytics can tell a great deal about a team when they have enough data.  They can help you see past the W-L column to see just how good a team is.  Those stats that had us at #5 last season are pretty telling.  We did soooooo much right and very little wrong last year.  The problem was that the small amount of poor plays we had, cost us about 4 ballgames and was the difference in us going to the Texas Bowl or being an elite team. 

[DeltaBoy]

Yep Advanced Stats are deep stuff and are pretty accurate Nov on !