A message for all you Poll Experts

[jbggtt]

So what if the poll is biased.  The results will not change the minds of anyone on either side of this debate.  Everything that has come out about this in the last year, from the media to the message boards, has been biased toward one side or the other.  Chuck, Rick, Otis and others are biased toward one side; Mike Irwin, Faldon, Wally and others are biased toward the other.  There is no such thing as an unbiased opinion.  That is what an opinion is: a belief or judgement that lacks the grounds for complete certainty.

[GBPackerFan]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

There are alot of coaching experts, recruiting experts, emailing experts, etc on this board too. 

I was thinking the same thing.  Using that logic there are about 1,000 people on here that should coach a college football team and get rich.

If criticizing, or giving or opinion on, something that we're not experts on is a bad thing, we should just shut the board down.

+1 Very nice! 

No one wants to respond to this one?  Well, I think that baby has been put to bed then.

[hawaiianhogster]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

Do you have to be a polling expert to know what a biased question looks like?  That is like saying I need to be a certified mechanic to tell I have a flat tire.

This is like saying I have to be a professional cook to know if a steak is done.

There are certain professions out there where you have to be certified before being taken seriously by others. This is one of them.

[jhogfan554]

I just think that for the poll results to have any credibility the questions have to be phrased in an unbiased manner. the only way to achieve an unbiased poll is to have people, professional people, with no vested interest in the outcome phrase the questions. Sure you have to tell them what the objective is, (how do people feel about HDN as the coach at U of A?) maybe even give them some questions as input then let them come up with the final phrasing. I have not really seen anyone dead set against the poll, though many have questioned if it will really accomplish anything, and most know that a sample, as long as it is professionally selected to be representative of the whole demographic is OK. I just believe in 2-3 core questions in this set are glaring in their bias and they discredit the entire poll. In fact IMO the whole poll boils down to one question, #10 - How satisfied are you with the current U of A football coach?

[arklahoman36]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

What I've learned is you have nothing to add to the debate.

On another thread, you challenged a poster's assertion that you were in the minority with your opinion, I think it was about how the ARK program is viewed by people outside ARK.

Your response was -- what was the guy's source, a national poll? -- which was a clear implication that the poster didn't have the knowledge to state his claim.

But apparently, you feel like you know enough about anyone who questions the reliability of the silvertip poll, to reply numerous times (in one form or another) -- explicitly or implied -- that they can't possibly have enough knowledge to challenge the decisions by a professional pollster.

Let me offer a few suggestions:

1) Learn a little bit about quantitative analysis and polling before you assume you know enough to challenge anyone's knowledge. You might know enough to know I'm a reporter, but I'm guessing you know nothing about my educational background.

2) You take the simple-minded approach -- without knowing enough about polling yourself apparently -- that the polling firm is infallible. Professionals on all levels make mistakes.
If a surgeon cut off your right leg instead of you left, do you think it would take someone else with a medical degree to point out the mistake? Probably not, I think you'd probably agree that's something that's pretty basic.
Take a couple of courses in quantitative analysis and polling to get the basics, and you'll understand there are some reasonable criticisms of the poll.

3) I haven't seen you challenge the specific criticism. You fall back on the professional pollster argument. Under that line of reasoning, I should never have an opinion on any poll unless I contributed to the cost of the polling.

Based on your responses, maybe you should never have an opinion on recruiting, coaching, playcalling or any poll at the D-I level since as far as I know you've never lead a D-I sports program and the money to run those programs isn't coming out of your pocket. If I send 50 cents for the cost of the poll, does that give me the right to have an opinion?

Will I disagree that some posters' criticism is uninformed? No. Check my posts and you'll see I challenge some of the criticisms of the poll.

But before you paint any criticism of the poll with a broad brush, maybe you should actually ask a question to determine if some of the people might actually know enough to raise those questions.

[rzrbcks2120]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

If some of the people on this board know so much about college sports then maybe they should start their own program.

[RazrHog_TX]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

What I've learned is you have nothing to add to the debate.

On another thread, you challenged a poster's assertion that you were in the minority with your opinion, I think it was about how the ARK program is viewed by people outside ARK.

Your response was -- what was the guy's source, a national poll? -- which was a clear implication that the poster didn't have the knowledge to state his claim.

But apparently, you feel like you know enough about anyone who questions the reliability of the silvertip poll, to reply numerous times (in one form or another) -- explicitly or implied -- that they can't possibly have enough knowledge to challenge the decisions by a professional pollster.

Let me offer a few suggestions:

1) Learn a little bit about quantitative analysis and polling before you assume you know enough to challenge anyone's knowledge. You might know enough to know I'm a reporter, but I'm guessing you know nothing about my educational background.

2) You take the simple-minded approach -- without knowing enough about polling yourself apparently -- that the polling firm is infallible. Professionals on all levels make mistakes.
If a surgeon cut off your right leg instead of you left, do you think it would take someone else with a medical degree to point out the mistake? Probably not, I think you'd probably agree that's something that's pretty basic.
Take a couple of courses in quantitative analysis and polling to get the basics, and you'll understand there are some reasonable criticisms of the poll.

3) I haven't seen you challenge the specific criticism. You fall back on the professional pollster argument. Under that line of reasoning, I should never have an opinion on any poll unless I contributed to the cost of the polling.

Based on your responses, maybe you should never have an opinion on recruiting, coaching, playcalling or any poll at the D-I level since as far as I know you've never lead a D-I sports program and the money to run those programs isn't coming out of your pocket. If I send 50 cents for the cost of the poll, does that give me the right to have an opinion?

Will I disagree that some posters' criticism is uninformed? No. Check my posts and you'll see I challenge some of the criticisms of the poll.

But before you paint any criticism of the poll with a broad brush, maybe you should actually ask a question to determine if some of the people might actually know enough to raise those questions.

DUDE!

^5

+1!!!

[mikeirwin]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

What I've learned is you have nothing to add to the debate.

On another thread, you challenged a poster's assertion that you were in the minority with your opinion, I think it was about how the ARK program is viewed by people outside ARK.

Your response was -- what was the guy's source, a national poll? -- which was a clear implication that the poster didn't have the knowledge to state his claim.

But apparently, you feel like you know enough about anyone who questions the reliability of the silvertip poll, to reply numerous times (in one form or another) -- explicitly or implied -- that they can't possibly have enough knowledge to challenge the decisions by a professional pollster.

Let me offer a few suggestions:

1) Learn a little bit about quantitative analysis and polling before you assume you know enough to challenge anyone's knowledge. You might know enough to know I'm a reporter, but I'm guessing you know nothing about my educational background.

2) You take the simple-minded approach -- without knowing enough about polling yourself apparently -- that the polling firm is infallible. Professionals on all levels make mistakes.
If a surgeon cut off your right leg instead of you left, do you think it would take someone else with a medical degree to point out the mistake? Probably not, I think you'd probably agree that's something that's pretty basic.
Take a couple of courses in quantitative analysis and polling to get the basics, and you'll understand there are some reasonable criticisms of the poll.

3) I haven't seen you challenge the specific criticism. You fall back on the professional pollster argument. Under that line of reasoning, I should never have an opinion on any poll unless I contributed to the cost of the polling.

Based on your responses, maybe you should never have an opinion on recruiting, coaching, playcalling or any poll at the D-I level since as far as I know you've never lead a D-I sports program and the money to run those programs isn't coming out of your pocket. If I send 50 cents for the cost of the poll, does that give me the right to have an opinion?

Will I disagree that some posters' criticism is uninformed? No. Check my posts and you'll see I challenge some of the criticisms of the poll.

But before you paint any criticism of the poll with a broad brush, maybe you should actually ask a question to determine if some of the people might actually know enough to raise those questions.

Fans all over the country discuss coaching. Some know more than others but since the reason these sports exist on the level they exist on is for their enterainment value fans will natually step in and give opinons.
Certainly this board would not exist if not for the discussions about coaching, players, games etc.
Polling is not a sport however and I can't see much about it that's entertaining.
If there is such a board where polls are discussed as entertainment some of the posts in this thread might fit in well.
However this thread has been all about analyzing silvertip's poll to the point where it stopped being about the poll and more about the timing of it and the obvious desire by some to discredit it before the results are released.
On the question of how fans outside this state feel about this poll, the lawsuit or HDNs cell records there is simply no way to come to any meaningful conclusions as to whether there is a widespead reaction one way or another. And yet we read here almost every day that it's a fact that this stuff is damaging  to the program.
I never said polls are infallible. But I do know people who have used the firms from which silvertip selected. They have used these firms and have nothing bad to say about them. I have gone over the list of questions in silvertips' poll with a person who has commissioned several political polls in this state. That person told me that while it might be possible to quibble with a couple of the questions there was nothing that would cause the poll to be invalid.
I realize that some of you are never going to accept this poll unless perhaps it turns out a little differently than you think.
We are long past the point where much of anything is going to be agreed upon here.
However I have defended silvertip mainly because he did something when so many others were content to sit and complain.
He has my respect for the work he put in and I will accept the results of his poll no matter what the results.
You can think whatever you want.

[missippihog]

Anyone can find fault with ANY poll.  Why don't you people just shut up and let the poll play out?

They will when you guys shut up and let the situation with coach Nutt play out. We all know the chances of that happening.

[arklahoman36]

What I've learned is we must have a lot of polling experts on this board.
If some of these people know this much about the business maybe they should start their own company and get rich.

What I've learned is you have nothing to add to the debate.

On another thread, you challenged a poster's assertion that you were in the minority with your opinion, I think it was about how the ARK program is viewed by people outside ARK.

Your response was -- what was the guy's source, a national poll? -- which was a clear implication that the poster didn't have the knowledge to state his claim.

But apparently, you feel like you know enough about anyone who questions the reliability of the silvertip poll, to reply numerous times (in one form or another) -- explicitly or implied -- that they can't possibly have enough knowledge to challenge the decisions by a professional pollster.

Let me offer a few suggestions:

1) Learn a little bit about quantitative analysis and polling before you assume you know enough to challenge anyone's knowledge. You might know enough to know I'm a reporter, but I'm guessing you know nothing about my educational background.

2) You take the simple-minded approach -- without knowing enough about polling yourself apparently -- that the polling firm is infallible. Professionals on all levels make mistakes.
If a surgeon cut off your right leg instead of you left, do you think it would take someone else with a medical degree to point out the mistake? Probably not, I think you'd probably agree that's something that's pretty basic.
Take a couple of courses in quantitative analysis and polling to get the basics, and you'll understand there are some reasonable criticisms of the poll.

3) I haven't seen you challenge the specific criticism. You fall back on the professional pollster argument. Under that line of reasoning, I should never have an opinion on any poll unless I contributed to the cost of the polling.

Based on your responses, maybe you should never have an opinion on recruiting, coaching, playcalling or any poll at the D-I level since as far as I know you've never lead a D-I sports program and the money to run those programs isn't coming out of your pocket. If I send 50 cents for the cost of the poll, does that give me the right to have an opinion?

Will I disagree that some posters' criticism is uninformed? No. Check my posts and you'll see I challenge some of the criticisms of the poll.

But before you paint any criticism of the poll with a broad brush, maybe you should actually ask a question to determine if some of the people might actually know enough to raise those questions.

Fans all over the country discuss coaching. Some know more than others but since the reason these sports exist on the level they exist on is for their enterainment value fans will natually step in and give opinons.
Certainly this board would not exist if not for the discussions about coaching, players, games etc.
Polling is not a sport however and I can't see much about it that's entertaining.
If there is such a board where polls are discussed as entertainment some of the posts in this thread might fit in well.
However this thread has been all about analyzing silvertip's poll to the point where it stopped being about the poll and more about the timing of it and the obvious desire by some to discredit it before the results are released.
On the question of how fans outside this state feel about this poll, the lawsuit or HDNs cell records there is simply no way to come to any meaningful conclusions as to whether there is a widespead reaction one way or another. And yet we read here almost every day that it's a fact that this stuff is damaging  to the program.
I never said polls are infallible. But I do know people who have used the firms from which silvertip selected. They have used these firms and have nothing bad to say about them. I have gone over the list of questions in silvertips' poll with a person who has commissioned several political polls in this state. That person told me that while it might be possible to quibble with a couple of the questions there was nothing that would cause the poll to be invalid.
I realize that some of you are never going to accept this poll unless perhaps it turns out a little differently than you think.
We are long past the point where much of anything is going to be agreed upon here.
However I have defended silvertip mainly because he did something when so many others were content to sit and complain.
He has my respect for the work he put in and I will accept the results of his poll no matter what the results.
You can think whatever you want.

[/quote]
Fans all over the country discuss coaching. Some know more than others but since the reason these sports exist on the level they exist on is for their enterainment value fans will natually step in and give opinons.
Certainly this board would not exist if not for the discussions about coaching, players, games etc.
Polling is not a sport however and I can't see much about it that's entertaining.
If there is such a board where polls are discussed as entertainment some of the posts in this thread might fit in well. [/quote]

If that's the case, and there is no need for a polling thread on a sports board, why did silvertip start one, and why did you sticky a post on a sports board at the top of the MMQB thread?

[/quote] However this thread has been all about analyzing silvertip's poll to the point where it stopped being about the poll and more about the timing of it and the obvious desire by some to discredit it before the results are released. [/quote]

Please show me where my criticism of aspects of the poll were about the timing of the poll or the desire to discredit. My previous posts are available to deconstruct, analyze, prod, poke, quote and reproduce.

[/quote] On the question of how fans outside this state feel about this poll, the lawsuit or HDNs cell records there is simply no way to come to any meaningful conclusions as to whether there is a widespead reaction one way or another. And yet we read here almost every day that it's a fact that this stuff is damaging  to the program. [/quote]

I agree, and without knowing my background and others, there is no meaningful way you can conclude people who have criticisms of the questions posed in the silvertip poll don't have enough knowledge to do so.

[/quote] I never said polls are infallible. But I do know people who have used the firms from which silvertip selected. They have used these firms and have nothing bad to say about them. I have gone over the list of questions in silvertips' poll with a person who has commissioned several political polls in this state. That person told me that while it might be possible to quibble with a couple of the questions there was nothing that would cause the poll to be invalid. [/quote]

I agree, you never specifically said the pollsters were infallible, but it was obviously implied, without a doubt. For example, the condescending remarks regarding the ability of anyone outside the pollsters to reasonably criticize the poll questions.

[/quote] I realize that some of you are never going to accept this poll unless perhaps it turns out a little differently than you think. [/quote]

Show me where I said that. I responded to your posts. Respond to mine without speaking in generalities. Show me where I said I wouldn't accept the results of the poll.
What I've articulated is an issue with some questions, but stated the reliability of the poll, will be determined by what conclusions the pollsters say can be draw from those results, based on the limitations that are inherent in any poll -- and I listed some limitations that will exist, based on a failure to eliminate certain variables.

[/quote] We are long past the point where much of anything is going to be agreed upon here.
However I have defended silvertip mainly because he did something when so many others were content to sit and complain. He has my respect for the work he put in and I will accept the results of his poll no matter what the results. [/quote]

So if someone doesn't have the means to pay for a poll, that is being commissioned in hopes of simply in proving someone wrong, but not accomplishing anything based on the poll, they shouldn't have an opinion? Or if they do, it should only be in deference to silvertip.

[/quote] You can think whatever you want. [/quote]

Ok, I'll tell you what I think.
You're a respected member of the local media (you're who I watch on local T.V. for sports news), you're in a position of authority on this board (a moderator), yet you've lost your professional bearing on this subject.
You have continued to belittle any criticism of the poll questions, not confront the specifics of criticism, but belittle.
In maybe a half-dozen different ways, you've implied that any critic isn't intelligent or knowledgeable enough to criticize poll questions in a meaningful way, or they would be heading up a polling firm.
On the other hand, you stated people are intelligent enough to not be swayed by the language of a question.

I'm not trying to pick a fight; it's not that other posters haven't made some of the same types of comments you've made.

But based on your professionalism in regard to your work for KFSM, in conjunction with your position as a moderator, I expected something other than belittling remarks or glaring generalities.

[rzrbcks2120]

I wonder why this ended up in Vent and Rumors.....................

[claytongray]

I wonder why this ended up in Vent and Rumors.....................

LOL

[budcampbellfan]

BTW, the only reason Silvertip hasn't been overwhelmed with money is the quiet and secretive way he has had to go about getting donations in order not to be accused of influencing the outcome.

That's BS......At least two threads with the announcement and information on how to contribute and even stickied by the mods....that sounds secretive and quiet.....bull

No.  I'm right.  He also tried to use PayPal only at first and a lot of people don't have one and don't want one.

Well, actually he said the reason he stopped using paypal was paypal insistence that he needed not for profit status.  I dont blame him for that at all, but, the fact remains, that at least 2 threads were created for the SPECIFIC PURPOSE of soliciting funds. 

Look, I know what he said.  He didn't rehash all the details.  You guys can spin this and try to make it out any way you want.  He limited his sources in the beginning and it didn't work.  This took some time to shake out, delayed the donations.  He changed strategy, started a couple of threads, opened it up and began accepting checks.  I imagine the money will come in just fine.  

[ThinkPig]

Also, 600 out of about 2.8 million (about .02% of the state's population) is a pretty small sample size. 

600 is "pretty small" for a poll of Arkansans?

n=600 has a margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points no matter the population size over 8,000.  That is the way it works.  I know it defies common sense, but that's the deal.