New Formula for predicting point spreads

[arkfanchip]

Yea we could pull a Biff in Back to the Future! 

[Hoofer]

thanks for answering, that makes perfect sense. look forward to seeing how the games play out, methodology is definitely sharp!

[winbe]

I think you're misunderstanding it.  For the Texas Tech/VIR. Game here is the formula

Texas Tech Rushing vs. Virginia Rushing Defense

175 (Yrds rush by tt) + 450 (Yrds allowed by VA) = 625
625 * 1.5 (The number I multiply rushing yrds by)= 937
937 * .18% (The percent of the time TT runs the ball)= 169
169 * .58% (The Percent of the time Opponents run against VA)=98

For TT, I got 98 Rushing and 932 passing making the average 257. Score 36 according to your scale

For VA, I got 428 Rushing and 395 passing making the average 206. Score 31 according to your scale

Is that what you got?  By a previous post, it doesn't seem so, so I am wrong on the passing formula?

I built a spreadsheet to test this out, and if that is what you got on the TT/VA game, then I am confused why the AR/MO isn't working out right for me.  I have AR averaging 322 which is off your scale and MO averaging 242.

I don't really bet on games, but I thought it would be cool to build a spreadsheet to do it for you.

[arkfanchip]

To really see if this works, you should try backtesting it for a couple of years.  I mean, go back to the 2001-2006 seasons and use the methodology to predict each of the bowl games for the respective year.  Then see if your record is significantly different from 50%.

Successfully picking 4 games in one year is by no means an accurate indicator of a successful formula.  Imagine having 1000 people randomly picking a winner of any given game.  Assuming that each person has a 50% chance of getting the winner right (and thus a 50% chance of getting it wrong), there will be (.5)(.5)(.5)(.5)(1000)=6.125 people that have a 4-0 record on chance alone.

(.5)(.5)(.5)(.5)(.5)(1000)=3.0625.  5-0 with bama game over. Not bragging, just hoping I am on to something

[pizwilly]

Bump

[arkfanchip]

For TT, I got 98 Rushing and 932 passing making the average 257. Score 36 according to your scale

I think you forgot to multiply the yardage by the percentage of times each team ran and passed.
For VA, I got 428 Rushing and 395 passing making the average 206. Score 31 according to your scale

Is that what you got?  By a previous post, it doesn't seem so, so I am wrong on the passing formula?

I built a spreadsheet to test this out, and if that is what you got on the TT/VA game, then I am confused why the AR/MO isn't working out right for me.  I have AR averaging 322 which is off your scale and MO averaging 242.

I don't really bet on games, but I thought it would be cool to build a spreadsheet to do it for you.

I think you forgot to multiply by the percentage that each team ran and passed. 

[arkfanchip]

I got your PM so I'm going to post my entire Texas Tech/VA formula here for everyone to look at. 

Texas Tech Offense
Run                   
17-53
7-10
17-73
12-39
Total 53-175
                                                       Texas Tech Run/Pass Ratio is .18/.82
Pass
72-420
48-466
59-490
63-431
Total 242-1807

Texas Tech Defense
Run
34-106
62-283
35-91
44-217
Total 175-697
                                                   Opp. Run/Pass Ratio is .54/.46
Pass
45-302
30-266
47-191
27-132
Total 149-891

Virginia Offense
Run
36-97
39-130
25-82
36-94
Total 136-403
                                                  Virginia Run/Pass Ratio is .48/.52
Pass
28-144
25-288
43-225
51-275
Total 147-932

Vir. Defense
Run
46-131
39-95
50-140
30-84
Total 165-450
                                              Va. Opp. Run/Pass Ratio is .58/.42
Pass
26-299
21-145
26-175
46-347
Total 119-966

Texas Tech Formula is
Run:  175 + 450 = 625 * 1.5= 937* .18= 169*.58= 98
Pass:  1807+ 966= 2773 * .82=2274* .42= 955

955+98= 1053/4 263

Virginia Formula
Run: 403+697*1.5*.48*.54= 428
Pass: 932+891*.52*.46= 436

428+436=864/4=216

Texas Tech 263= 37
Virginia      216= 20

[Hoofer]

Ok my picks according to my formula

Alabama -4         32
Colo.                  16


Clemson -2.5       24
Auburn                10


Ok State -6          49
Indiana                31


Wisconsin +2        30
Tenn                    14

Mizzou -3.5          41
Arkansas              31

So what all games do you see as strong plays today?

Clemsen and Oklahoma State? Are those the only 2 of the 6 that would make strong plays today?

Anything that hits 55% is pretty solid so this system is well on it's way for this bowl season at least. It would take a lot of time to analyze every game during a season unless there was a program that could run the numbers.

[Erockster20]

cbssportsline's stats are not accurate.  fwiw.

I kept coming up with different numbers, actually coming out with a hogs win, using ESPN.com.
I went to cbssportsline and came up with the same numbers you have.  However, after looking on several schools homepages, their stats and ESPN match up.  Not to wrinkle the formula, because it seems to be working nicely.

[kcabrozaR]

On the other hand, I only have one loss through the first 15 bowl games using no formula, including the last 9 in a row, so 5 wins is not a good measuring stick for the formula.

How do you stand for the first 15?

[Beaverfever]

You're system is pretty cool but I don't know how accurate it can be without considering strength of schedule.  I know you only consider games against bcs teams and all but playing stanford and playing lsu is not the same thing.  If you factored in a little strength of schedule it might improve it.  JMO.  Cool idea though.

[arkfanchip]

The strength of schedule is something I do take into consideration.  I go back the last 4 games and if one of the teams has a much harder 4 games I'll substitute a game here and there.  Every BCS conference has at least 2 quality teams in it.

I know it's not a perfect system at all and my goal is to reach 60%.  If you are 14-1 this bowl season without a formula then you're doing way better than this formula can do. 

I think Ok. State and Clemson are the only two games for me to bet on today.  I don't like doing Non-BCS teams to BCS teams, I'm not sure about oregon's situation without Dixon I mean they could have gotten better now that the backups had alot of practice. 

[arkfanchip]

I'll check the ESPN stats also...I just assumed CBS would be accurate and we all know what Assuming does. 

[Beaverfever]

The strength of schedule is something I do take into consideration.  I go back the last 4 games and if one of the teams has a much harder 4 games I'll substitute a game here and there.  Every BCS conference has at least 2 quality teams in it.

I know it's not a perfect system at all and my goal is to reach 60%.  If you are 14-1 this bowl season without a formula then you're doing way better than this formula can do. 

I think Ok. State and Clemson are the only two games for me to bet on today.  I don't like doing Non-BCS teams to BCS teams, I'm not sure about oregon's situation without Dixon I mean they could have gotten better now that the backups had alot of practice. 

Oh ok cool.  I wouldn't go too far back in the season though, even if that means taking one less game or something.  Teams can change drastically over the course of a season.

[arkfanchip]

Which games did you see a diff. in CBS and ESPN stats?  I just checked Texas Tech/ Virginia/ Ok State/ and Indiana and they were the same? 

[Hoofer]

You're system is pretty cool but I don't know how accurate it can be without considering strength of schedule.  I know you only consider games against bcs teams and all but playing stanford and playing lsu is not the same thing.  If you factored in a little strength of schedule it might improve it.  JMO.  Cool idea though.

On the other hand, I only have one loss through the first 15 bowl games using no formula, including the last 9 in a row, so 5 wins is not a good measuring stick for the formula.

How do you stand for the first 15?

14-1? Against the spread? If that's true, you would be leading every conceivable bowl pool out there. It's almost statistically impossible but that's great if you are on that hot of a streak.

Do you mind posting your picks for the rest of the season? Anybody that follows point spreads would agree it's very hard to believe a 14-1 streak is possible. Please post rest of your picks, it would be interesting to see how rest plays out. Great job and hope you made some $$.

[dffhogs]

On the other hand, I only have one loss through the first 15 bowl games using no formula, including the last 9 in a row, so 5 wins is not a good measuring stick for the formula.

How do you stand for the first 15?

Are you picking them straight up or are you using the spread?

[Feralhog]

So what all games do you see as strong plays today?

Clemsen and Oklahoma State? Are those the only 2 of the 6 that would make strong plays today?

Anything that hits 55% is pretty solid so this system is well on it's way for this bowl season at least. It would take a lot of time to analyze every game during a season unless there was a program that could run the numbers.

I'm getting ready to write a program in excel once I figure out the forumula.

[arkfanchip]

If you have anymore questions about the formula just let me know....

[arkfanchip]

Also is anyone on this thread from Clarksville or around that area?  I'm applying for the head coaching job at Westside Johnson County and I don't know much about that school?  Any info would help. 

[Feralhog]

Ok, I've written the formula for rushing in excel.  Based on the numbers provided by Arkfanchip, Tech vs Va total was 97.875.  Now working on passing formula. 

[Hoofer]

awesome, once you finish putting together the spreadsheet i'd love to see it. my email is hogfan146@gmail.com

[Feralhog]

awesome, once you finish putting together the spreadsheet i'd love to see it. my email is hogfan146@gmail.com

Done, you've got mail

[Hogginitall]

Done, you've got mail

I sent you a PM with my e-mail address.  I'd like to see it as well.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If you have anymore questions about the formula just let me know....

I can't believe you aren't going with S. Florida today.

[arkfanchip]

I'm not sure how Oregon's backup QB is going to respond with a month's worth of practice or I would have went with south florida.  My luck would be he would come out and go all Tom Brady on USF if I'd have bet for the Bulls

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm not sure how Oregon's backup QB is going to respond with a month's worth of practice or I would have went with south florida.  My luck would be he would come out and go all Tom Brady on USF if I'd have bet for the Bulls

Yeah, but usually, the lay off does more harm than good and a team has a tendency to lose their rythm. It is great for extra early Spring Practice, but rythm suffers for a game.

[ben7516]

How do you choose which games to utilize?

I've been doing the Ark/Mizzou game with my spreadsheet I set up and I get different results depending on which games I use...

Is there some kind of "mental" filtering you use to pick which games to calculate the formulas?

[Feralhog]

I use CBSSPORTSLINE.COM.  

I'm missing something here.  The numbers you pm'd regarding the Bama v Colo game didn't compute.  Bama's total was 163.84 and Colo was 220.38

[arkfanchip]

I use the last 4 games against BCS opponents which did not go into overtime.  The only time I choose any different from that is if one teams last four games were obviously tougher than the other then I'll substitute one game for each team. 

[ben7516]

Which games did you use for the Arkansas/Missouri game?

Just out of curiosity...

[arkfanchip]

I'm missing something here.  The numbers you pm'd regarding the Bama v Colo game didn't compute.  Bama's total was 163.84 and Colo was 220.38

These are my totals
Bama
Running 144-432
Passing  147-831

Bama Defense
Running 136-470
Passing  127-864

Colorado Offense
Running 158-735
Passing  124-747

Defense
Running 116-496
Passing  193-1533

[arkfanchip]

Arkansas
Miss st
Tenn
South Carolina
Ole Miss

Mizzou
OU
Kansas
Kstate
A&M

I think that's the games I used....I didn't write down the opp. just the stats.

[ben7516]

Oh okay....

For AR, I used LSU instead of Ole Miss, and for Mizzou, I used CO instead of Kansas St.

I guess that would make a difference.

Thanks!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Arkansas
Miss st
Tenn
South Carolina
Ole Miss

Mizzou
OU
Kansas
Kstate
A&M

I think that's the games I used....I didn't write down the opp. just the stats.

Unless we don't bring our "A" game, I think the Hogs-Mizzou game is going to be closer than 10 points. More like 4 points. Looks like it should be Mizzou winning, but I am hoping for the other way around.

[arkfanchip]

I'm not betting on the game for sure b/c I can't pull against the hogs.  This is one I hope I'm wrong on.  I agree it does seem like we will be closer than 10 but their passing numbers compared to our passing defense is such a big difference. 

[Feralhog]

These are my totals
Bama
Running 144-432
Passing  147-831

Bama Defense
Running 136-470
Passing  127-864

Colorado Offense
Running 158-735
Passing  124-747

Defense
Running 116-496
Passing  193-1533

Ok, I've got it

[Feralhog]

Can you direct me to the area where you get the data from CBS sports line. 

[arkfanchip]

CBS is wierd and I just figured out that there are two differnet sets of stats for each game and they are different so I would use ESPN.  Just go to college football/teams/schedule and click on the score

[Feralhog]

CBS is wierd and I just figured out that there are two differnet sets of stats for each game and they are different so I would use ESPN.  Just go to college football/teams/schedule and click on the score

isn't ESPN stats untested?

[arkfanchip]

They are the same that is on CBS's first page.  If you go to CBS then click college football/teams/go down the page and click on the scores of the game and scroll down half the page to the stats then that's where I got all my stats from which are the same as ESPN's stats for every game.  Now on CBS if you do all of the steps except click on team stats at the top of the page instead of scrolling down then there are two different sets of stats.  I can't figure it out but ESPN's are right. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm not betting on the game for sure b/c I can't pull against the hogs.  This is one I hope I'm wrong on.  I agree it does seem like we will be closer than 10 but their passing numbers compared to our passing defense is such a big difference. 

Yes, their passing numbers are bigger. They avg 328 to our allowing 211, but they only average about 30 yards more in total offense than we do and they give up about 20 yards more in total D than we do. In looking at scoring, they score about .2 pts more per game than we do while allowing only 1.1 pts per game less than we do. I see this as a close game, provided we come to play and provided we don't have anyone thinking about their draft status instead of being focused and playing hard.

[arkfanchip]

So the OK State/Indiana game is not on TV??? 

[SpiritHog]

So the OK State/Indiana game is not on TV??? 

NFL Network

[Feralhog]

Okie Light up 28 -3 6:30 left in lst half but IU is threatening.  1st and goal at the four.

The formula is kickin butt, however, I'm a bit concerned about taking Clemson.  IMO there needs to be a some kind of consideration factored in for the SEC. 

[arkfanchip]

Believe me I'm as concerned as anyone about taking clemson.  But I told myself I was going to leave my gut feeling out of it during the bowl season and see how I do.  If Ok State holds on to cover I'll be 7-0 this bowl season so It's bound to be wrong sooner or later. 

[Feralhog]

Believe me I'm as concerned as anyone about taking clemson.  But I told myself I was going to leave my gut feeling out of it during the bowl season and see how I do.  If Ok State holds on to cover I'll be 7-0 this bowl season so It's bound to be wrong sooner or later. 

I'm the first one to say take emotions out of decision making, especially when it comes to money.  Don't let me talk you out of anything.  AU is down a bit this season however, Clemson will be missing three players on D.  BTW OSU is up 35 - 10 with a minute and a half to go in the first half.

[arkfanchip]

Auburn sure is making this first drive look easy

[arkfanchip]

One thing I've noticed since I've done this formula is no matter how big the lead or how big one team is down all it takes is one spark to get the other one going so I'm not sold on the OK state score yet. 

[arkfanchip]

I was wrong about the Auburn game...I'm sorry!