Way too early NFL draft projections

[bennyl08]

Brandon Allen: If the draft were to happen today, I would be surprised if he was drafted. However, I would not be surprised if he was taken by the end of the season. He has physical tools superior to that of Tyler Wilson who was drafted. However, technique and confidence have held him back. Last year he did much better and his completion percentage is effectively much higher than the stats show due to him being coached to throw the ball away. I'm expecting a 2600-2700 yard season with 25-28 td's and a couple more picks than last season. Plus, while he ran it more last than the previous year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him show off his underrating running ability a bit more this year as well. Projection late 5th (at best) to FA.

Austin Beck: He's been a reserve OL for a while now and has really good size. However, barring injury it is unlikely that he sees extended playing time this year. If he shows off some athleticism at the pro day, he could still warrant a FA deal. The Chicago Bears for example still have Cameron Jefferson on their roster. Doubtful he makes a practice squad, but to make it all the way to the 75 man cuts is still pretty impressive, and who's to say if he does get cut (though he probably will).

Marcus Danenhaur: Similar situation to Beck. I think Dan's had a bit more playing time as a reserve, but that is just a gut feeling, which would help him in getting a FA deal, but he'll need some more this year and a pro day that entices somebody.

Rohan Gaines: A better pro prospect than Alan Turner was and he got a FA deal, though was cut after OTA and never made it to training camp and the preseason. I think Gaines lacks the athleticism to be drafted as a safety for the NFL though he should have a good season and could surprise me. He was recruited by Petrino to replace Jerico Nelson who went on to actually make the saints 53 man roster for a few weeks mid-season and I think Gaines is a bit better suited for the NFL than Nelson was. However, recall that both Gaines and Turner were often liabilities for us in 2013 before turning a corner in CRS's new defense. Projection: 6th-FA.

Drew Gorton: He'll be our long snapper this year, but they are rarely ever drafted. Further, they have very long careers in the NFL so it is hard to find an opening and coaches don't always sign guys just to compete either. Projection: No nfl.

Keon Hatcher: I think people really underestimate his athleticism. People ragged on our wideouts saying they weren't good enough in 2013, but Herndon went out and ran a 4.4 flat at the pro day and really just showed out athletically and made the practice squad of the chargers last year as an underrated rookie and is threatening to make the roster this year. Hatcher isn't going to run a 4.40, but he will certainly run fast enough and more importantly show his quickness. Further, he will greatly impress coaches with his blocking ability, route running, and hands. He is not going to be an NFL star receiver. However, with his size, toughness, and mentality, he could still carve out a role for himself in the NFL. Projection: 4th-7th round.

Demarcus Hodge: A big, strong DT who has always been projected to be a starter, but then never seems to hold onto that. His senior year may prove different. His biggest problem has been that his weight is not all good weight which leads to conditioning issues for him. However, he is good enough to threaten to start and has always been at the very least a solid rotational player. Projection: Solid FA. We will rotate so many guys on the DL that he won't get much of a chance to show that he does have stamina, and since he is more of a run stopping double team eater, I doubt we keep him in on too many passing downs which will further hurt his draft stock. However, his size and strength and that he does have decent playing time, I would be shocked if he didn't get a FA deal and stick around at least through training camp and possibly more.

Mitchell Loewen: He started as a TE here, moved to DE for a bit, and is now also playing some FB and DT as a 3 technique. This is both good for him and bad. Bad that he hasn't really found a spot and really honed in on the techniques for it, but good that he will probably be somewhat impressive at his pro day. Tweeners rarely make it in the NFL, so he will need to show that he is worth the chance. He impressed many hogvillians with his play at DE last season. Projecting him here is difficult since I don't even know where he will line up this season, but I think he gets a call as a FA.

Davyon McKinney: Rangy guy with arms longer than proportional. This is great for a secondary player like himself. However, sleepy has never really seen much time on the field to date. I believe he is a primary backup at safety this season and coach has mentioned him a few times. However, with complete lack of playing time, it will be very tough for him to get a FA deal unless he absolutely shows out this season and impresses at the pro day. Projection: no nfl.

Mitch Smothers: He's been a very good center, part of a very good OL, and has some very productive skill players around him. All of that will combine to really help his draft stock. First, he would have been drafted regardless of what offense he was in. However, there were several OL guys during the Nutt years who I think owe them being drafted to McFadden and Jones. Saying you were part of an OL with 2 1000 yard rushers really pads your resume. That said, I don't think Smothers is in that top tier of centers in college football. Projection: 4-early 7th.

Sebastian Tretola: He on the other hand has really excited a lot of people and trimming down his weight should really help his stock as well. Even if he gets injured early in the season, I think a team would take a flyer on him late in the draft. He has impressive athleticism for a guy his size and good technique to boot. Projection, as high as late second round to early 5th (early 7th if injured).

Alex Voelzke: He's been a good role player guy for us, and is listed as the third TE in line right now. That will probably hold true early in the season, but I'm guessing he gets passed over eventually by the younger guys. Previously I've always seen him as a sort of poor man's austin cantrell, i.e. the athletic, multi-purpose tool kind of player. If he holds onto that third TE spot and helps us redshirt a guy like Gragg and O'Grady (Cantrell's FB abilities and our lack there will likely keep him out of the RS conversation) and shows that he is athletic at the pro day, he could earn a FA deal. Projection: FA-possibly no nfl.

Jonathan Williams: I thought it was in his best decision to declare for the draft last season, but was thrilled to see him return this year. So, like most hog fans, I was really disappointed for him that he got injured. While this won't help his draft stock any, I don't think it will drop him too far either. Gurley missed a lot of time his last season and was still a top 10 pick. Why? Because he had demonstrated clearly his talents beforehand. JWill has two full seasons of showing off what he can do as a starting tailback and those two awesome catches vs Kent. his freshman season. I don't think there was anything that he was going to accomplish this year to drastically change his draft stock. Projection: 3-4th.

Alex Collins*: I would be very surprised to see Collins stay his senior season. I don't think JWill's injury really plays into it either, he was gone after 3 years since his first year. Plus, it's not like if he stays, he will show what he can do without JWill as there will always be a committee of sorts here. The interesting question becomes, who gets drafted higher? Before Collins trimmed, I would say that Collins will probably beat JWill in the 10 yard split, but JWill would win out in the forty. JWill is definitely stronger and the better pass blocker, while Collins is shiftier and  has better vision. While JWill has the greater overall physical attributes, I think Collins' style is a better fit and so will be slightly higher in the draft; however, it will largely come down to teams. JWill is more of a north south zone runner similar in running style to Foster and Knile, though not nearly as fast and a bit more of a bruiser. Collins is more of Lynch style runner though with less power. Projection: Late 2nd to 4th.

Hunter Henry*: He is already regarded as one of the best TE's in the country. If he shores up his blocking and is utilized more in the passing game getting 600 yards or so, with the massive backlog of TE's behind him, he may see the TE go to a bit more of a committee approach in the future and decide it is in his best interest to leave early. If he did, he would most certainly be drafted, however, I strongly lean towards him returning. Projection: 2nd-5th. Big year he could possibly squeeze into the end of the first depending on team needs.

Denver Kirkland*: I similar do not think he will declare, but there is a stronger chance that he would than Henry, IMO. He is a premier talent on the OL, and a guy like him would make some bank in the NFL. I have my reservations on him as a LT in the NFL, but he would be one of the top guards out there for sure. If he has a first team All-SEC year at LT, then that chance increases. Projection: 1st to 3rd.

Dan Skipper*: The only other junior that I'd say is a threat to declare. His pass blocking still has plenty of room to improve so I think he is the least likely of the bunch, but he is an absolutely terrifying run blocker. His aggressiveness was used against him early on but I think as he gets older, it is more controlled, similar to Flowers was on the DL. He had a ton of speed and power, but tackles would let him explode right past them and completely out of the play. However, while he is still refining his skills, there is an extreme amount of raw talent with him. If he shows that he has refined his skills during this season, he could be drafted at a decent round. Projection: 3rd to 6th.

[bennyl08]

Brandon Allen: If the draft were to happen today, I would be surprised if he was drafted. However, I would not be surprised if he was taken by the end of the season. He has physical tools superior to that of Tyler Wilson who was drafted. However, technique and confidence have held him back. Last year he did much better and his completion percentage is effectively much higher than the stats show due to him being coached to throw the ball away. I'm expecting a 2600-2700 yard season with 25-28 td's and a couple more picks than last season. Plus, while he ran it more last than the previous year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him show off his underrating running ability a bit more this year as well. Projection late 5th (at best) to FA.

Well, he threw for 3400 with 30:8 ratio. I did well to predict that his draft stock would rise as the season went. I still think he is likely in the 5th to 7th range as a draft pick. However, having said that, a walterfootball mock has him in the fourth to the Falcons and an NFL mock drack has him in the third to the Cardinals. Both of these are pretty recent and could be reflecting a growing like of our Allen.

Austin Beck: He's been a reserve OL for a while now and has really good size. However, barring injury it is unlikely that he sees extended playing time this year. If he shows off some athleticism at the pro day, he could still warrant a FA deal. The Chicago Bears for example still have Cameron Jefferson on their roster. Doubtful he makes a practice squad, but to make it all the way to the 75 man cuts is still pretty impressive, and who's to say if he does get cut (though he probably will).

Marcus Danenhaur: Similar situation to Beck. I think Dan's had a bit more playing time as a reserve, but that is just a gut feeling, which would help him in getting a FA deal, but he'll need some more this year and a pro day that entices somebody.

Not much to change here.

Rohan Gaines: A better pro prospect than Alan Turner was and he got a FA deal, though was cut after OTA and never made it to training camp and the preseason. I think Gaines lacks the athleticism to be drafted as a safety for the NFL though he should have a good season and could surprise me. He was recruited by Petrino to replace Jerico Nelson who went on to actually make the saints 53 man roster for a few weeks mid-season and I think Gaines is a bit better suited for the NFL than Nelson was. However, recall that both Gaines and Turner were often liabilities for us in 2013 before turning a corner in CRS's new defense. Projection: 6th-FA.

Gaines did not have the season to impress and garner a draft selection IMO. He is still a good bet to get a FA deal as a camp body if he doesn't have a poor showing at the pro day.

Drew Gorton: He'll be our long snapper this year, but they are rarely ever drafted. Further, they have very long careers in the NFL so it is hard to find an opening and coaches don't always sign guys just to compete either. Projection: No nfl.

Keon Hatcher: I think people really underestimate his athleticism. People ragged on our wideouts saying they weren't good enough in 2013, but Herndon went out and ran a 4.4 flat at the pro day and really just showed out athletically and made the practice squad of the chargers last year as an underrated rookie and is threatening to make the roster this year. Hatcher isn't going to run a 4.40, but he will certainly run fast enough and more importantly show his quickness. Further, he will greatly impress coaches with his blocking ability, route running, and hands. He is not going to be an NFL star receiver. However, with his size, toughness, and mentality, he could still carve out a role for himself in the NFL. Projection: 4th-7th round.

I stand by this as evidenced by his early season production. However, I didn't expect him to get injured. We'll see how he does next year. If he still remains the top dog in the WR house with Morgan, Reed, and Cornelius, then his draft stock will bump up.

Demarcus Hodge: A big, strong DT who has always been projected to be a starter, but then never seems to hold onto that. His senior year may prove different. His biggest problem has been that his weight is not all good weight which leads to conditioning issues for him. However, he is good enough to threaten to start and has always been at the very least a solid rotational player. Projection: Solid FA. We will rotate so many guys on the DL that he won't get much of a chance to show that he does have stamina, and since he is more of a run stopping double team eater, I doubt we keep him in on too many passing downs which will further hurt his draft stock. However, his size and strength and that he does have decent playing time, I would be shocked if he didn't get a FA deal and stick around at least through training camp and possibly more.

He impressed me this season. He remained a go to player for us and actually showed some quickness for us as well. That said, I'm sticking with my prediction of him being an UDFA and at least making it to the preseason.

Mitchell Loewen: He started as a TE here, moved to DE for a bit, and is now also playing some FB and DT as a 3 technique. This is both good for him and bad. Bad that he hasn't really found a spot and really honed in on the techniques for it, but good that he will probably be somewhat impressive at his pro day. Tweeners rarely make it in the NFL, so he will need to show that he is worth the chance. He impressed many hogvillians with his play at DE last season. Projecting him here is difficult since I don't even know where he will line up this season, but I think he gets a call as a FA.

His season was cut short due to injury. I think he has exhausted his eligibility. If so, I do still think he gets a FA deal IF he is healed up.

Davyon McKinney: Rangy guy with arms longer than proportional. This is great for a secondary player like himself. However, sleepy has never really seen much time on the field to date. I believe he is a primary backup at safety this season and coach has mentioned him a few times. However, with complete lack of playing time, it will be very tough for him to get a FA deal unless he absolutely shows out this season and impresses at the pro day. Projection: no nfl.

IIRC he didn't play a whole lot this season, mostly on special teams. Got passed up by a Kevin Richardson who played the role I expected Sleepy to play.

Mitch Smothers: He's been a very good center, part of a very good OL, and has some very productive skill players around him. All of that will combine to really help his draft stock. First, he would have been drafted regardless of what offense he was in. However, there were several OL guys during the Nutt years who I think owe them being drafted to McFadden and Jones. Saying you were part of an OL with 2 1000 yard rushers really pads your resume. That said, I don't think Smothers is in that top tier of centers in college football. Projection: 4-early 7th.

I think I overvalued the center position here. I still would not be surprised to see him get drafted this year. However, I'd amend the projection to 6th to FA. That he hasn't been invited to the combine is not a good sign.

Sebastian Tretola: He on the other hand has really excited a lot of people and trimming down his weight should really help his stock as well. Even if he gets injured early in the season, I think a team would take a flyer on him late in the draft. He has impressive athleticism for a guy his size and good technique to boot. Projection, as high as late second round to early 5th (early 7th if injured).

Nailed that. 2-5th rounds is pretty much where he's been projected. Typically more in the 2-4 range though. There have been some with Tretola taken early in the second with Kirkland in later rounds and others with Kirkland up early and Tretola in the mid rounds. I think the combine will really help solidify things for the prospects.

Alex Voelzke: He's been a good role player guy for us, and is listed as the third TE in line right now. That will probably hold true early in the season, but I'm guessing he gets passed over eventually by the younger guys. Previously I've always seen him as a sort of poor man's austin cantrell, i.e. the athletic, multi-purpose tool kind of player. If he holds onto that third TE spot and helps us redshirt a guy like Gragg and O'Grady (Cantrell's FB abilities and our lack there will likely keep him out of the RS conversation) and shows that he is athletic at the pro day, he could earn a FA deal. Projection: FA-possibly no nfl.

same

Jonathan Williams: I thought it was in his best decision to declare for the draft last season, but was thrilled to see him return this year. So, like most hog fans, I was really disappointed for him that he got injured. While this won't help his draft stock any, I don't think it will drop him too far either. Gurley missed a lot of time his last season and was still a top 10 pick. Why? Because he had demonstrated clearly his talents beforehand. JWill has two full seasons of showing off what he can do as a starting tailback and those two awesome catches vs Kent. his freshman season. I don't think there was anything that he was going to accomplish this year to drastically change his draft stock. Projection: 3-4th.

Modern mock drafts are pretty much saying something to this effect as well. Maybe 3-5th, but mid round prospect.

Alex Collins*: I would be very surprised to see Collins stay his senior season. I don't think JWill's injury really plays into it either, he was gone after 3 years since his first year. Plus, it's not like if he stays, he will show what he can do without JWill as there will always be a committee of sorts here. The interesting question becomes, who gets drafted higher? Before Collins trimmed, I would say that Collins will probably beat JWill in the 10 yard split, but JWill would win out in the forty. JWill is definitely stronger and the better pass blocker, while Collins is shiftier and has better vision. While JWill has the greater overall physical attributes, I think Collins' style is a better fit and so will be slightly higher in the draft; however, it will largely come down to teams. JWill is more of a north south zone runner similar in running style to Foster and Knile, though not nearly as fast and a bit more of a bruiser. Collins is more of Lynch style runner though with less power. Projection: Late 2nd to 4th.

Collins impressed and improved this season. I think the above is pretty close, but I'd augment it to say early second to 3rd. I'd be shocked if the fourth round started without Collins having been called.

Hunter Henry*: He is already regarded as one of the best TE's in the country. If he shores up his blocking and is utilized more in the passing game getting 600 yards or so, with the massive backlog of TE's behind him, he may see the TE go to a bit more of a committee approach in the future and decide it is in his best interest to leave early. If he did, he would most certainly be drafted, however, I strongly lean towards him returning. Projection: 2nd-5th. Big year he could possibly squeeze into the end of the first depending on team needs.

Well, with him being the consensus #1 draft pick and not just getting 600 but nearly 750 yards, yeah, the "strongly lean towards... returning" in hindsight seems pretty off. There were plenty of posters claiming to know his family and that he was going to come back, but IMO he made the right decision. He did have the big year and will either go in the late first likely to the Steelers or Packers or will be gone midway through the second.

Denver Kirkland*: I similar do not think he will declare, but there is a stronger chance that he would than Henry, IMO. He is a premier talent on the OL, and a guy like him would make some bank in the NFL. I have my reservations on him as a LT in the NFL, but he would be one of the top guards out there for sure. If he has a first team All-SEC year at LT, then that chance increases. Projection: 1st to 3rd.

I was fairly off on this one. Namely, my projection was based on him having such a stellar year this year that he declares. I don't think he is too far off of Tretola in projection, but yeah, I'd be surprised to see him in the first right now. More in the 2-4 range.

Dan Skipper*: The only other junior that I'd say is a threat to declare. His pass blocking still has plenty of room to improve so I think he is the least likely of the bunch, but he is an absolutely terrifying run blocker. His aggressiveness was used against him early on but I think as he gets older, it is more controlled, similar to Flowers was on the DL. He had a ton of speed and power, but tackles would let him explode right past them and completely out of the play. However, while he is still refining his skills, there is an extreme amount of raw talent with him. If he shows that he has refined his skills during this season, he could be drafted at a decent round. Projection: 3rd to 6th.

Well, I was hesitant to say that some of the juniors would declare in the pre-season, but I did a decent job of getting the order in which they would declare. There was some talk about Skipper possibly leaving but he did not. Based on this season and how he has improved each year, I'd say he is looking at the 2-5 range next season.

[OPoraquê]

Well, he (Brandon Allen) threw for 3400 with 30:8 ratio. I did well to predict that his draft stock would rise as the season went. I still think he is likely in the 5th to 7th range as a draft pick. However, having said that, a walterfootball mock has him in the fourth to the Falcons and an NFL mock drack has him in the third to the Cardinals. Both of these are pretty recent and could be reflecting a growing like of our Allen.

He's going to get to prove himself further starting tomorrow.  I hope these mocks are near-correct and hope BA has a great week at the combine.

[bennyl08]

He's going to get to prove himself further starting tomorrow.  I hope these mocks are near-correct and hope BA has a great week at the combine.

If Tyler can go in the 4th, I see no reason why Allen can't. My biggest question if I'm a GM is why it took him so long for everything to click. If that game and a half during JLS was so damaging or it just took him that long to get up to SEC level productivity, what's going to happen when he is thrust into play vs the Broncos or how long will it take him to adjust to NFL level play?

If BA can have a good mentor and a good QB coach, he can have a long career.

[hawgmasta]

If Tyler can go in the 4th, I see no reason why Allen can't. My biggest question if I'm a GM is why it took him so long for everything to click. If that game and a half during JLS was so damaging or it just took him that long to get up to SEC level productivity, what's going to happen when he is thrust into play vs the Broncos or how long will it take him to adjust to NFL level play?

If BA can have a good mentor and a good QB coach, he can have a long career.

That mock you mentioned with BA going to Arizona would be perfect. Bruce Arians is a hell of a coach and could help BA out tremendously, gonna keep my fingers crossed on that one.

[LZH]

That mock you mentioned with BA going to Arizona would be perfect. Bruce Arians is a hell of a coach and could help BA out tremendously, gonna keep my fingers crossed on that one.

Bruce Arians/Brandon Allen...BA/BA. It's a clear sign.

The coach isn't making any secret of who he's taking in the draft. I even saw a picture of him wearing a cardinal red shirt the other day that said "Arizona Football". Arizona/Arkansas...A/A.

Arizona lock.

[OPoraquê]

If Tyler can go in the 4th, I see no reason why Allen can't. My biggest question if I'm a GM is why it took him so long for everything to click. If that game and a half during JLS was so damaging or it just took him that long to get up to SEC level productivity, what's going to happen when he is thrust into play vs the Broncos or how long will it take him to adjust to NFL level play?

If BA can have a good mentor and a good QB coach, he can have a long career.

FWIW, TW threw for about 40 yards when he had his turn in the Senior Bowl a few years back, about 1/3 of BA's production earlier in 2016.  Hope this week goes well at the NFL combines for all U of A players...