2017 - Projected Lineup Review

[dotnet]

One of my favorite things is to discuss/debate the future baseball teams before/during/after the season.  As I was thinking about 2018 already, it made me curious how good we are at projecting the lineup... especially before the draft. Here is the main thread for last year:

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=612332.0

I couldn't find one after the draft, but that would be even more interesting. 

UCA had the following lineup:

1.  Eagan
2.  Shaddy
3.  Bonfield
4.  Spanberger
5.  Stobbe
6.  Rortvedt
7.  Gates
8.  Fletcher
9.  McFarland


A couple of interesting points in review:

1. Based on scouting reports at the time, I understand and semi agree with the projection... but its funny to project Gates as a 2b and McFarland in CF.  McFarland really is as fast as a first baseman/power hitter type you're going to see, but a CF he is not.  Gates barely has the range to play 3rd.  The scouting reports made it seem like Gates could even fake SS, which clearly isn't true.

2. Generally speaking, this nails everyone who made it to campus very well with the exception of Heiss.  But there are always guys who take longer to adjust and you realize don't have the control to play as freshman. 

3.  I never understood why people were so high on Loseke going into this year.  He did well in 2016, but I never thought he had the raw stuff that would play in the SEC as well as others.  Though in hindsight, it seems it was his command more than his stuff that held him back. 

4. The biggest difference is the secondish year players who made a big jump and are hard to project.  This happens all the time, and will hopefully happen this year.  Guys like Reindl, Kopps, and Murphy. 

5. UCA admitted to forgetting Cole and said he could be a starter.  Really an impressive projection before the draft. 

* Note: the above lineup wasn't supposed to project who would or wouldn't make it to campus.  so no points deducted for having in guys who signed. 

[dotnet]

I didn't keep reading the thread to get the post draft update. 

1.  Jake Arledge - CF
2.  Carson Shaddy - 3B
3.  Luke Bonfield - LF
4.  Chad Spanberger - 1B
5.  Grant Koch - C
6.  Jordan McFarland - DH
7.  Jared Gates - 2B
8.  Dominic Fletcher - RF
9.  Jaxon Williams - SS

If you swap Gates and Shaddy defensively, and replace Williams with Biggers, then you generally have the lineup. Cole clearly was the DH over McFarland, but McFarland would have been a fine SEC 1b if the best 1b in the SEC wasn't on the roster. 

This is impressive. 

I think Juco's are the hardest to predict because you never know what you're going to get and it takes fall ball to really ever know.  So I discount the "miss" on Stephan and Biggers. 

Apart from the previously mentioned Loseke, and the injuries of course, a relatively spot on projection

[dotnet]

And to have self reflection here, in something that may only interest me:

I correctly predicted Cole's rebound, Fletcher as a CF profile, us not knowing who would be the SS, being high on some of the new LHPs (Cronin, Lee, Krull... 2/3)...

I completely whiffed on Spanberger (though only the last 2/3 of the season), and Arledge. 

I think Spanberger's season numbers do too much to obscure the fact of how terrible he was in non conference and how much of a monster he was from conference play on when it mattered most.  In a sport that has tons of players who kill in non conference to be completely over matched in conference, its one of the most remarkable stats I've ever seen

[John Snow]

Spamberger season is almost like Dominic Fletcher's season In reverse great February and March to way below  average the rest of the year.

[yraciv]

My Post Draft Prediction on 6/12:
C - Grant Koch
1B - Chad Spanberger
2B - Jared Gates
SS - Hunter Wilson
3B - Carson Shaddy
LF - Luke Bonfield
CF - Jordan McFarland
RF - Eric Cole
DH - Austin Catron

Got Gates/Shaddy backwords, where I flat out said I had no idea if Shaddy would stick or go to DH.   A month later I threw Arledge in the OF due to his summer, and Cole to the Bench. Also said Fletcher would be in OF, if McFarland ends up in infield. I'd give myself a B+ on the projection. I was sold on Catron sticking, and no one saw Biggers coming.

[ucahogfan]

Spamberger season is almost like Dominic Fletcher's season In reverse great February and March to way below  average the rest of the year.

Fletcher struggled for a few weeks, but he hit 6 HRs from the Tennessee series on and finished one shy of tying the freshman record with Zack Cox.  He will be named a Freshman AA and hit over .290 on the season.  Wouldn't say he was below average for half the year.

[ucahogfan]

I didn't keep reading the thread to get the post draft update. 

1.  Jake Arledge - CF
2.  Carson Shaddy - 3B
3.  Luke Bonfield - LF
4.  Chad Spanberger - 1B
5.  Grant Koch - C
6.  Jordan McFarland - DH
7.  Jared Gates - 2B
8.  Dominic Fletcher - RF
9.  Jaxon Williams - SS

If you swap Gates and Shaddy defensively, and replace Williams with Biggers, then you generally have the lineup. Cole clearly was the DH over McFarland, but McFarland would have been a fine SEC 1b if the best 1b in the SEC wasn't on the roster. 

This is impressive. 

I think Juco's are the hardest to predict because you never know what you're going to get and it takes fall ball to really ever know.  So I discount the "miss" on Stephan and Biggers. 

Apart from the previously mentioned Loseke, and the injuries of course, a relatively spot on projection

Yeah, JUCOs are the hardest to project especially ones who didn't participate in big events in high school or start at D-1 schools, but did say SS was the biggest question mark without knowing that Biggers would be an All-SEC player.  Nailed the weekend rotation before injuries decimated it with McKinney and Campbell.  Gates played 2B in JUCO so it was reasonable to assume he would have been a 2B here, but he is more clearly a corner INF.  DVH has high hopes for McFarland next year so maybe he is a middle of the order hitter next year.

[flippinhogmana]

anyone who says they saw Spanberger coming on the way he did in conference (other than maybe DVH) clearly has a problem with veracity.