Road to the Kentucky Derby

[OaklawnCapper]

3 derby prep races this weekend each worth 75pts.

AQUEDUCT
Gotham S.(Grade 3)
$300,000, 1 Mile

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby(Grade 2)
$400,000, 1 1/16 Miles

SANTA ANITA
San Felipe S.(Grade 2)
$400,000, 1 1/16 Miles

[OaklawnCapper]

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby- G2  $400,000 1 1/16 Miles


1 Arazi Like Move           S. Spieth 118 Lbs       A. Gonzalez

2 Tiz Mischief                J. Rosario 118 Lbs      D. Romans

3 Vino Rosso                 J. Velazquez 118 Lbs   T. Pletcher

4 Grandpa Knows Best    J. Leparoux 118 Lbs     K. McPeek

5 Flameaway                 J. Lezcano 120 Lbs     M. Casse

6 Enticed                      A. Gallardo 122 Lbs     K. McLaughlin

7 Free Drop Billy             NO JOCKEY 124 Lbs     D. Romans

8 World of Trouble           I. Ortiz, Jr. 118 Lbs     J. Servis

9 Untamed Domain          J. Ortiz 122 Lbs          H. Motion 

10 Quip                         F. Geroux 118 Lbs      R. Brisset

11 Caloric                      NO JOCKEY 118 Lbs    M. Winters

[holeinthewall]

7 and 11 are gonna have a hard time winning with no jockey.

[OaklawnCapper]

Gotham S.- G3  $300,000 1 Mile

1 Dial Operator              T. McCarthy 117 Lbs      J. Servis 

2 Cove Blue                  C. Landeros 117 Lbs       D. Romans

3 Beautiful Shot            A. Arroyo 117 Lbs          J. Desormeaux

4 Whereshetoldmetogo   J. Rocco, Jr. 119 Lbs      A. Pecoraro

5 Firenze Fire               M. Franco 123 Lbs         J. Servis 

6 Free Drop Billy           D. Davis 123 Lbs            D. Romans

7 Old Time Revival        S. Hamilton 117 Lbs        K. Decker

8 Nine Route               K. Carmouche 117 Lbs     J. Englehart

9 Enticed                   J. Alvarado 121 Lbs         K. McLaughlin

[mckinneyhog5]

Damn Free Dop Billy is running two stake races in one day, one in Florida and one in NY!   

[ghostzapper]

San Felipe was the race of the day.  Beyers came back highest in it, then Gotham, then TB Derby.  Interesting winner of Tampa Bay Derby in first start of 2018.

[kingoftherapids]

Performance of the weekend was actually today

[ghostzapper]

Performance of the weekend was actually today

I missed it.  By whom?

[userpick]

I missed it.  By whom?

Justify. That was freaky good. I'm going to assume he will ship to Arkansas for the derby.

[ghostzapper]

Ah, yes, I see now.  Didn't play SA because of off track but went back and watched race.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/extremely-impressive-justify-wins-santa-anita-allowance-6-12-lengths/

[oldman1015]

Why is the Smarty Jones winner going to the La Derby?

[holeinthewall]

Why is the Smarty Jones winner going to the La Derby?

You apparently missed this post.

This years Smarty Jones winner was euthanized today after breaking down in a workout. Bob Baffert hadn't broken one down in a couple of days so it was due I guess. There's not a worse horseman in racing than Bob Baffert and we only hear about how great he is.

[kingoftherapids]

Justify. That was freaky good. I'm going to assume he will ship to Arkansas for the derby.

Wish it was trained by someone else. racing needs a small trainer type thing again. one hit wonder tim wooley. or john servis with smarty. or hal wiggins with rachel. (should have never left his care btw)

[cbhawg03]

Wish it was trained by someone else. racing needs a small trainer type thing again. one hit wonder tim wooley. or john servis with smarty. or hal wiggins with rachel. (should have never left his care btw)

Been going to Oaklawn for a while, 20 years or so.  Has there been a bigger disappointment at Oaklawn than the day Rachel got beat at FG and put to bed the match against Zenyatta?

[oldman1015]

You apparently missed this post.

No I didn't but it caused me to type Smarty Jones when I meant Southwest.

[userpick]

No I didn't but it caused me to type Smarty Jones when I meant Southwest.

Will be a much easier spot than running in Arkansas. He got a dream trip with a very strong rail. Will be surprised if he hits the board in Louisiana.

[heavylifting]

For anyone who is interested in what Bruno DeJulio has to think, here is what he wrote on Monday in a missive to his email distribution list --

The 3 Derby Preps

Let's start with Tampa Bay Downs Derby.

The Tampa Bay Downs Derby splits of 24.56, 24.94, 24.30, 24.56 & 6.40. They went as fast from start to 1/4, as they from 5/16 (mid-far turn) to 16th pole. *24.54 and *24.56. Add that no one, NO ONE, rallied all day, being more than head behind at 1/4 pole. Flameaway ran huge

Flameaway's effort Tampa Bay Downs Derby was exceptional, as he was only horses the entire card grinding out in stretch, and did so into teeth of an impossible race shape to overcome. He was also slammed at the start by World of Trouble which caused him to be further back than he may have been.

Timed both races myself multiple times, both Tampa Bay Downs Derby and The Gotham Stakes were correctly timed, both had less than 2 second head run up. 'Tampa 1.20 and 'Aqueduct 1.60, but the tale of the two races via the timer is astounding.

I feel there was a VERY STRONG  profile to speed at 'Tampa and the no passing or rallying sign was strictly enforced. They finished strongly in the Tampa Bay Derby, strongest finish of any prep I have seen this year. The Tampa Bay Derby was an Fast, Average, Fast race shape on a track profiled to help speed horses.

The Gotham, at Aqueduct, was two different races:  1st half 46.43, and the 2nd half 51.81. They really slowed down on a track that can be very tricky to make numbers.

Enticed showed he is a very good one turn horse with a good 4-wide, sure to please sheet readers. Enticed ran them down with a slow-fast race shape. 

The San Felipe, at Santa Anita, is a tale of two horses from opposite end of the spectrum. McKinzie is racing fit with recency. Bolt D'Oro hadn't raced since early November and missed time with a muscle problem. Who had more of a right to tire?

Looking at all 3 preps side by side:

Tampa Bay Derby: 1st 1/2 - 49.48, 2nd 1/2- 48.86.~+ (plus) .62/100ths faster 2nd 1/2.

Gotham Stakes: 1st 1/2f 46.43, 2nd 1/2 51.81.~ - (minus)4 seconds and 38/100ths slower than 1st 1/2.

San Felipe: 1st 1/2 46.81, 2nd 1/2 48.84 ~  - (minus) 2 seconds and 03/100ths.

Another comparison on the three races is the last 6.5 furlongs travelled:

San Felipe: 1:19.21

Tampa Bay Derby: 1:20.20

Gotham: Adjusted for last 6.5f with last .5 furlong in 6.2: 1:21.20.

The following numbers were made available this morning for the three Derby Preps:

San Felipe: 101 BSF, 98 Brisnet, 27 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwithbruno

Gotham Stakes: 95BSF, 104 Brisnet, 31 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwithbruno

Tampa Bay Derby: 94 BSF, 98 Brisnet, 27 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwitbbruno

The benchmark for a Derby winner is under 20 Delta carrying 126 pounds. Other figures do not incorporate weight into their factors.

Racingwithbruno adjusts figures to the 126 Derby weight for all horses.

[OaklawnCapper]

Rebel Stakes - G2  $900,000 1 1/16 Miles

1 Title Ready                   J. Ortiz              117 Lbs       S. Asmussen

2 Curlin's Honor              F. Geroux          115 Lbs      M. Casse

3 Solomini                       F. Prat                115 Lbs      B. Baffert

4 Magnum Moon             L. Saez              115 Lbs      T. Pletcher 

5 Higher Power                R. Eramia          117 Lbs      D. Von Hemel 

6 Pryor                              R. Albarado      115 Lbs      R. Moquett

7 Sporting Chance             J. Velazquez     117 Lbs     D. Lukas

8 High North                     G. Stevens         115 Lbs     B. Cox

9 Zing Zang                      C. Lanerie          115 Lbs     S. Asmussen

10 Combatant                    R. Santana, Jr.    115 Lbs    S. Asmussen

11 Bode's Maker                J. Loveberry       115 Lbs    A. Milligan

[cbhawg03]

Scratch Bode's Maker, going in allowance instead

[Torqued pork]

Per DRF, Todd Pletcher stated the Arkansa Derby looks like the most logical next race for Magnum Moon and Bob Baffert has decided on the Arkansas Derby next for Justify according to Bloodhorse. This could be the most interesting Arkansas Derby in years if it happens. Would've been nice to have seen Solomini with a better trip.

[ghostzapper]

For anyone who is interested in what Bruno DeJulio has to think, here is what he wrote on Monday in a missive to his email distribution list --

The 3 Derby Preps

Let's start with Tampa Bay Downs Derby.

The Tampa Bay Downs Derby splits of 24.56, 24.94, 24.30, 24.56 & 6.40. They went as fast from start to 1/4, as they from 5/16 (mid-far turn) to 16th pole. *24.54 and *24.56. Add that no one, NO ONE, rallied all day, being more than head behind at 1/4 pole. Flameaway ran huge

Flameaway's effort Tampa Bay Downs Derby was exceptional, as he was only horses the entire card grinding out in stretch, and did so into teeth of an impossible race shape to overcome. He was also slammed at the start by World of Trouble which caused him to be further back than he may have been.

Timed both races myself multiple times, both Tampa Bay Downs Derby and The Gotham Stakes were correctly timed, both had less than 2 second head run up. 'Tampa 1.20 and 'Aqueduct 1.60, but the tale of the two races via the timer is astounding.

I feel there was a VERY STRONG  profile to speed at 'Tampa and the no passing or rallying sign was strictly enforced. They finished strongly in the Tampa Bay Derby, strongest finish of any prep I have seen this year. The Tampa Bay Derby was an Fast, Average, Fast race shape on a track profiled to help speed horses.

The Gotham, at Aqueduct, was two different races:  1st half 46.43, and the 2nd half 51.81. They really slowed down on a track that can be very tricky to make numbers.

Enticed showed he is a very good one turn horse with a good 4-wide, sure to please sheet readers. Enticed ran them down with a slow-fast race shape. 

The San Felipe, at Santa Anita, is a tale of two horses from opposite end of the spectrum. McKinzie is racing fit with recency. Bolt D'Oro hadn't raced since early November and missed time with a muscle problem. Who had more of a right to tire?

Looking at all 3 preps side by side:

Tampa Bay Derby: 1st 1/2 - 49.48, 2nd 1/2- 48.86.~+ (plus) .62/100ths faster 2nd 1/2.

Gotham Stakes: 1st 1/2f 46.43, 2nd 1/2 51.81.~ - (minus)4 seconds and 38/100ths slower than 1st 1/2.

San Felipe: 1st 1/2 46.81, 2nd 1/2 48.84 ~  - (minus) 2 seconds and 03/100ths.

Another comparison on the three races is the last 6.5 furlongs travelled:

San Felipe: 1:19.21

Tampa Bay Derby: 1:20.20

Gotham: Adjusted for last 6.5f with last .5 furlong in 6.2: 1:21.20.

The following numbers were made available this morning for the three Derby Preps:

San Felipe: 101 BSF, 98 Brisnet, 27 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwithbruno

Gotham Stakes: 95BSF, 104 Brisnet, 31 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwithbruno

Tampa Bay Derby: 94 BSF, 98 Brisnet, 27 Delta (based on 126 pounds) for Racingwitbbruno

The benchmark for a Derby winner is under 20 Delta carrying 126 pounds. Other figures do not incorporate weight into their factors.

Racingwithbruno adjusts figures to the 126 Derby weight for all horses.

Interesting read.  Thanks for posting.

[OaklawnCapper]

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby - G2  1 1/8 miles $1,000,000


1  7-2  Bravazo                           G. Stevens 122 Lbs                  D. Lukas 

2  7-2  Noble Indy                       J. Velazquez 122 Lbs              T. Pletcher

3  50-1 Marmello                         J. Gilligan 122 Lbs                 M. Yanakov

4  20-1 Givemeaminit                  J. Castellano 122 Lbs              D. Stewart

5  12-1 Retirement Fund             S. Bridgmohan 122 Lbs           S. Asmussen 

6  8-1   Hyndford                         J. Bravo 122 Lbs                     T. Pletcher 

7  9-2   Snapper Sinclair              J. Ortiz 122 Lbs                       S. Asmussen 

8  20-1 Lone Sailor                      J. Graham 122 Lbs                  T. Amoss 

9  5-2   My Boy Jack                   K. Desormeaux 122 Lbs          J. Desormeaux

10  12-1 Dark Templar                F. Geroux 122 Lbs                   B. Walsh

[OaklawnCapper]

So who do you guys like in the Louisiana Derby?

[OaklawnCapper]

Noble Indy battled back well on the rail.  My Boy Jack ran better than I expected him to run even with that wide move at the top of the stretch.

[Torqued pork]

Lukas has decided on the Blue Grass Stakes for Sporting Chance.

[kingoftherapids]

Lukas has decided on the Blue Grass Stakes for Sporting Chance.

basically said pletcher and baffert have beasts

[cbhawg03]

basically said pletcher and baffert have beasts

Pletcher going to find out that he just has a regular joe come AR Derby day. 

Outside of Bolt D'Oro, Baffert might have the trifecta in the KY Derby.  I would bet the house that it wouldn't happen but he has better chance than anyone has ever had.

[Russ22]

Pletcher going to find out that he just has a regular joe come AR Derby day. 

Outside of Bolt D'Oro, Baffert might have the trifecta in the KY Derby.  I would bet the house that it wouldn't happen but he has better chance than anyone has ever had.

Soooo, you don't like Magnum Moon?

[userpick]

Magnum Moon is a monster. Unfortunately going to run into another in Justify. Sporting Chance has no chance.

[cbhawg03]

Soooo, you don't like Magnum Moon?

There are a couple things that don't like, but don't get me wrong, not saying he is a claimer for life.  I'm just saying that he is going to have his lungs filled with a lot of dirt by Justify. 

I seriously think that Justify puts on a show like AP or Bode did and if that happens, you will forget the performance of Magnum Moon in the Rebel. 

I do like Solomini despite being beaten by Magnum Moon.  First race of long layoff.  I think he will move forward big time. 

[Russ22]

There are a couple things that don't like, but don't get me wrong, not saying he is a claimer for life.  I'm just saying that he is going to have his lungs filled with a lot of dirt by Justify. 

I seriously think that Justify puts on a show like AP or Bode did and if that happens, you will forget the performance of Magnum Moon in the Rebel. 

I do like Solomini despite being beaten by Magnum Moon.  First race of long layoff.  I think he will move forward big time. 

That's fair. Fortunately, we all get to watch how it plays out.

[ghostzapper]

McKenzie reportedly off the Derby trail.

[oldman1015]

Going to take a look at King Zachary in New York.

[ghostzapper]

Wow. Mendelssohn just entered the Derby equation.  Track record and won by 18.5 lengths.

[Torqued pork]

McKenzie reportedly off the Derby trail.

Yep. Hind leg issue. Hopefully Baffert will still bring Justify to Oaklawn instead of staying in Cali for the SA Derby.

[oldman1015]

Yep. Hind leg issue. Hopefully Baffert will still bring Justify to Oaklawn instead of staying in Cali for the SA Derby.

I bet he does with Bolt being there.

[Torqued pork]

I would think so. For all of the hype Justify still has zero points.

[Torqued pork]

Promises Fulfilled will run in the KY Derby despite finishing  last after setting a suicidal pace in the Florida Derby.

[ghostzapper]

Apparently, Justify's work tomorrow determines if he goes in SA Derby. 

[ghostzapper]

Promises Fulfilled will run in the KY Derby despite finishing  last after setting a suicidal pace in the Florida Derby.

Dale Romans is a better trainer than that.  I guess anyone (i.e. owner) with a front ender who thinks he could get lucky and pull a War Emblem while loose on the lead, can engage the fantasy of winning the Derby.  Does he have enough points to go?

[Torqued pork]

Dale Romans is a better trainer than that.  I guess anyone (i.e. owner) with a front ender who thinks he could get lucky and pull a War Emblem while loose on the lead, can engage the fantasy of winning the Derby.  Does he have enough points to go?

Yes. 54

[ghostzapper]

It is the Lukas/DumbandDumberapproach to the Derby:  so you're telling me I have a chance.

[Torqued pork]

It is the Lukas/DumbandDumberapproach to the Derby:  so you're telling me I have a chance.

I agree. I just hope the horse can make it to the summer without being ruined or worse.

[cbhawg03]

In reality it's stupid and ruins the Derby.  Like Bode, wasn't he harassed by a horse that went on to be a G1 winner sprinting? Otherwise Bode runs away with the Derby. 

Put in a restriction of finishing in top 3 or 4 I distance races or something.  Don't know exactly how to solve the problem. 

[userpick]

Would not surprise me at all if Promises Fulfilled didn't run in the derby. He's got some somewhat serious physical issues according to a clocker mentioned in this thread  and it's not getting any better.

[OaklawnCapper]

Big weekend for Kentucky Derby Preps!  All races are worth 100pts for 1st, 40pts for 2nd, 20pts for 3rd, and 10pts for 4th.
Aqueduct
Wood Memorial - G2  1 1/8 miles, $750,000

Santa Anita Park
Santa Anita Derby - G1 1 1/8 miles, $1,000,000

Keeneland
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes - G2 1 1/8 miles, $1,000,000

[holeinthewall]

I am looking forward to that Keeneland card Saturday.

[cbhawg03]

Justify going in SA Derby

[Torqued pork]

Justify going in SA Derby

Bummer. I was hoping to see him in the flesh. The odds on Magnum Moon just dropped like a rock in the Ark. Derby.

[cbhawg03]

Bummer. I was hoping to see him in the flesh. The odds on Magnum Moon just dropped like a rock in the Ark. Derby.

Bummer yes.  I'll take Solomini second off layoff, who is coming to OP since Justify is staying at SA and McKenzie injured.