RPI Thread

[Biggus Piggus]

One big key to getting a favorable schedule strength rating is to finish well in nonconference schedule strength.  A team does not have to do this by playing murderer's row.  It can be done the way Missouri State did:

Do not play really awful teams.
Play several road games, against decent to mediocre teams.

Do that and it makes a big difference.  Helps two ways.  Nonconference road games get more weight in the SOS calculation, and wins give an especially big boost to RPI.

It's very important to avoid all but the very best teams from the worst-rated conferences (SWAC, MEAC, Atlantic Sun, Mid-Con, America East, Northeast, Ivy, Big West, Southland, Southern, Patriot).  These are the leagues that have an average RPI below 200.  If you schedule somebody from those conferences, odds are they're going to hurt your RPI.

Arkansas usually has few nonconference road games because of the desire to get home ticket revenue.  Any is better than none, though.  And forget those neutral site games--they do not help.

This year the Hogs' nonconference opponents:

UConn, second in the Big East (2nd in conference RPI)
Maryland, tied for fifth in the ACC (3rd)
Kansas, tied for first in the Big 12 (5th)
Texas Tech, seventh in the Big 12
Missouri, tied for ninth in the Big 12
Missouri State, fifth in the Missouri Valley (6th)
Rice, fifth in CUSA (14th)
Southern Miss, tied for last in CUSA
Portland State, last in the Big Sky (18th)
Radford, fourth in the Big South (19th)
Texas State, 326 RPI and last in the Southland (23rd)
Western Illinois, 321 RPI and eighth in the Mid-Continent (28th)Texas-Pan American, independent with 325 RPI

Mathematically, the three home games against dreadful turkeys hurt worse than the disappointing standing of Texas Tech, Missouri and Southern Miss.  Somebody in Fayetteville doesn't seem to understand how the RPI works.  Please, no more favors for Nutt brothers.

[The_Bionic_Pig]

Hoop Excellant research +1 Karma

[Biggus Piggus]

I calculated the simple effect: what if the Hogs had won at Starkville and Oxford, instead of losing?  Result, Arkansas would have an RPI of about 38th.

Simply removing the three sub-300 RPI games from Arkansas's schedule--not adding in three assumed wins over better teams, just the schedule deletion--would move the Razorbacks 10 spots higher in the RPI standings.

Keeping the current win percentage and deleting the sub-300 opponents would put Arkansas in the top 40 of the RPI.

I don't believe anybody in the Broyles Complex (or Bud Walton Arena) realized how bad those sub-300 RPI games hurt the Razorbacks.

[HouTxRzbck]

Good post.

[fusbal11]

Come on guys, that makes WAY too much sense---what's going on here

[hogsanity]

Win 9 or 10 in the SEC every year and the rpi likely never comes into play.  Not like Nolan or Eddie went out of state often in non conf either.

[Biggus Piggus]

Not even talking about what playing lousy teams does to our level of preparation.  I think it is detrimental.  We played two lousy teams in a row right before going to Mississippi State this year.  Last season, the Hogs played seven really bad teams in nonleague games, and their nonconference SOS rated 249th.

[hogsanity]

to get our RPI up we have to win.  To get in the NCAA tourney we have to win.  I see no case in which it will come down to our RPI.  If we go 3-1 and get one in the SECT we are in, imo, regardless of our RPI.  2-2 and 1 in the SECT and MAYBE, depending on other conferences and at large teams, our RPI MIGHT matter.  I just dont see how we get in without going 3-1 to finish out. 

[hogsanity]

Nolan played Montevallo.  A team so bad NOlan STARTED the entire 2nd string and we still won by a million. 

Upgrade the OOC, go play decent teams on the road, and lose a couple of them.  Then you have to sweat it even if you win 10 sec games. 

Take care of your conference and the OOC wont matter. 

[silvertip]

The NCAA RPI is just one factor they use in picking the field. They also look at last-10 games, quality wins and bad loss, record vs top 50 RPI, record vs other teams in the NCAAT field, etc. I am pretty sure all that interesting stuff on Greenfield's & Sagarin's site is not considered at all.

As far as the official NCAA RPI, so far they release it only once a week---on Wednesday for the games up through the previous Monday. So, for example, the NCAA RPI released tomorrow will not reflect tonight's Bama game. But it will, for the first time, reflect the Fla win.

You can find a daily update of the RPI at warrennolan.com.
Why can that site do it everyday, but the NCAA only once a week? Because the NCAA is lazy & incompetent.

Hawgs present RPI is around 56. A couple of articles recently state that only about one team/year gets an at-large bid with an RPI worse than 50. A win vs Bama & 9-7 final SEC might fix that.

[clemensrules01]

Hoop Excellant research +1 Karma

he doesnt need any more. do you see his applaud number compared to his smites? WOW.

[Bill_Smith]

No, actually both teams played the RPI to the understanding EVERYONE had before the committee began releasing it this year.  The weighting of the non-conference road games was not known until this year -- too late to make any schedule changes.  That started last year without sufficient warning.

I promise you, this will have really bad effects for the people it was designed to "help" -- the midmajors.

[hogfan064]

Bama is at 39

St Joseph's is ahead of us with a 11-12 record and so is 13-10 Indiana.  I hate to say it, but I don't think our RPI will be high enough to make it if we don't beat UT

[Tater Salad]

That's disappointing. Jimmy Dykes said last night if we beat Alabama that it would jump into the 40's.

[hogfan064]

That's disappointing. Jimmy Dykes said last night if we beat Alabama that it would jump into the 40's.

I mean you got to think if we lose to UT then we will drop to about 58th in the RPI.  Then beat MSU and move up to maybe 56 and then win on the road in Athens and move up to maybe 52.  Go 1-1 in Nashville and our RPI might break the 40's.  I think we've got to win 4 more game to make it. 

[Beaverfever]

rpi is alot but not everything.  There's no way indiana makes the tourney.

[hogfan064]

rpi is alot but not everything.  There's no way indiana makes the tourney.

I know, but what are our chances making the tourney with a RPI in the 50's?

[Tomhog™]

rpi is alot but not everything.  There's no way indiana makes the tourney.

I know, but what are our chances making the tourney with a RPI in the 50's?

20 wins gives us a pretty good shot in itself.  We take care of business and win 2 of the next 3, that would give a favorable look based on last 10 game performance.  If the NCAA takes 5 teams, I'd say we're in.  If they take 4, it'll be a battle between us and KY.

[Tater Salad]

All the bracket "experts" have 6 SEC teams listed: FL, UT, KY, LSU, Bama and us.

It could be between KY and us...Bama isnt a shoe-in just yet either

[HogISH™]

Bama is at 39

St Joseph's is ahead of us with a 11-12 record and so is 13-10 Indiana.  I hate to say it, but I don't think our RPI will be high enough to make it if we don't beat UT

understand that haveing st joseph's and indiana in front of us is a GOOD thing, both of them will not make the dance thus we move up 2 spots when they rank the teams.

have not looked in a few weeks  but there were a number a teams that had an rpi better than ours that will not make the dance. will have to do a little research/guessing and try to see who is ahead of us that will not make it.

anyone got some spare time this am look it up or i will do @ lunch.

HogISH

[nwarazfan]

rpi is alot but not everything.  There's no way indiana makes the tourney.

I know, but what are our chances making the tourney with a RPI in the 50's?

A team from a power conf(and ranked 4th in the RPI) will not get left out with a winning conf record if we can get to 9-7. 

[hogsanity]

I think the RPI the NCAA uses only updates once a week, and the newest version does not include the game last night. 

IMO, our rpi does not matter.  For Our rpi to go up, we have to win at least 2 of 3, for us to get in the tourney we have to win at least 2 of 3.  Win 2 of 3 and 1 in the SECT would make us 9-7 and gve us 21 wins.  RPi or not, we get in with that record. 

[HoopS]

I'm with you hogish, its good that some of these teams are ahead at this point. Not to mention a lot of teams play tonight and we could go up again from that.  I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers just yet.

[Bill_Smith]

Hoop-

So the rating system the NCAA uses has us at #78, while Greenfield has us at #36?  I believe Sagarin has us in the 30's.  Do you know why their is such a discrepancy? 

You obviously have done more research on this than I have but I still contend a win tonight over Bama plus wins over State, Georgia, and SECT gets us in.   I believe we would win finish at 21-10 under this circumstance.  I'm not saying it would be a lock but I think it'd be hard for the committee to ignore us.  Then again, this scenario would probably depend on about a dozen or so teams.  The best thing that can happen for us to win out in conference play.  If we don't do that, then we need all of these teams like Gonzaga from smaller conferences that are a lock for the NCAA to win their conference tournaments.

After you get back from your two-hour lunch break, you can answer that one.

What is missing from all the privately generated RPIs -- Sagarin, etc. -- is the recently added adjustment for home/road that the NCAA began last season.  It is quite obvious that the outside RPI do not have access to the same formula as the committee generated one.

[Sanctified Swine]

Jay B made the comment last night that usually there is one at large team that gets in the tourney with an RPI over 50. So I am kinda looking at the teams in the 50 to 59 range as the competition. I do think we will lose to Tennessee but beat MSU and Georgia and win the first SEC tourney game over either Georgia or Vandy. I think that makes us 21-10 on tourney selection day with an RPI in the low to mid 50s. I also think another factor is that we should be team number 5 or 6 from the SEC. Depending on how Bama and Kentucky finish out. I am not totally sure how the SEC tourney plays out past the first round, but if I am not mistaken after our win in the first round over Georgia or Vandy, we should get  matched up with SECW 2nd place team. Which would most likely be Alabama. That should be another great showdown! If that isn't the game then it looks like another possible game with Florida in the second round.

either way - its gonna be fun!!

[HoopS]

I agree that it is the other teams in the same general position we are battling for a birth.  So many times you read people suggesting our conference will get X number of teams in as if there is some sort of rule or declaration made that the S E C will be alloted 5 slots this season and I can't tell you how many times that has been publically shot down. 

It may work out that we get 6 teams in or 4 but who knows. Finish strong and I like our chances and the same for bama and kentucky.

[Razorback88]

What will it be now?

[Shocktheman]

What the hell is RPI anyway, and why does it matter?

[Zen_Hog]

Don't matter, because were likely in teh tourney anyways

[hillbilly]

RPI matters quite a bit. Watch any show talking about which teams are on the bubble and you will see the RPI come up every time.

[ctthras]

RPI is everything.....seeding in the tournament is the most important aspect

[hogwild84]

We are 53 now, and Im guessing we'll be in the low 40s after this win....Winning against a top 50 team on the road is huge in the RPI equation

[silvertip]

What will it be now?

Your best place to look at RPI is warrennolan.com. When youget there, click up on the left at "basketball."

Here's the Biggie. When you get there, click on the left at "Conference RPI." That it the best way to compare teams. SEC is the #4 Conference. Click on THAT, & you will see the entire SEC & each team's RPI. Click on the Hawgs, you will see every Hawg game, the RPI of each opponent already played & the RPI of the teams to come.

Navigate that warrennolan.com web-site & you will have a really good & exciting tool to satisfy a Basketball Jones like I've had since 1965.

[Tomhog™]

Looking again, Arkansas has moved up to 46.  Bama is at 40 and KY is 38...

[hoggin das]

Anyone want to venture a guess?
I'm gonna speculate somewhere in the low 40's. Make it 42.

[fusbal11]

44

[hogstorm]

Anyone want to venture a guess?
I'm gonna speculate somewhere in the low 40's. Make it 42.

some will have us as low as the 20s and as high as the 40's

[Tater Salad]

39

[hoggin das]

I should have specified the the official NCAA RPI. I'm not sure when it comes out again, but we were at 56 last week, I think. Tennessee was at 4.

[PorcineSublime]

I should have specified the the official NCAA RPI. I'm not sure when it comes out again, but we were at 56 last week, I think. Tennessee was at 4.

Not sure, but I think the official NCAA RPI is top secret. At least it used to be. ?? 

[blueshog2001]

I am picking the upper 30s.  Beating the Vols at home should catapult us.

[Pignominious]

I should have specified the the official NCAA RPI. I'm not sure when it comes out again, but we were at 56 last week, I think. Tennessee was at 4.

Not sure, but I think the official NCAA RPI is top secret. At least it used to be. ?? 

I don't know I just saw it was on the cbssportsline page.  Its not up to date but it is the real mocoy.  35.

[PorcineSublime]

I should have specified the the official NCAA RPI. I'm not sure when it comes out again, but we were at 56 last week, I think. Tennessee was at 4.

Not sure, but I think the official NCAA RPI is top secret. At least it used to be. ?? 

I don't know I just saw it was on the cbssportsline page.  Its not up to date but it is the real mocoy.  35.

Oh, but I am never wrong.   Thanks for the update, don't know why I thought that. Guess I might be thinking of the selection criteria. Who knows, may be early Alzheimer's or something.

[hogfan13]

15

[razorhead69]

# 1 for one afternoon.

[mword]

42

[Corkscrew Johnson]

fyi

[Tater Salad]

[merccedes]

 

fyi

You are saying our RPI went down to 45? I think we were in the 50's and 60' 1-2 weeks ago.

[WizardofhOgZ]

I was thinking about this yesterday, after we beat Tennessee. Sagarin and RPI give you "bonus points" if you beat someone in the Top 10; however, almost always after you beat someone ranked that high - they no longer are. For examply, note that Tennessee is now ranked 11th after we beat them. But if they rebound and move back up, we could be in for some more bonus points and a higher ranking.

It all boils down to "just win, baby".

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0506.htm