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Vegas Line: Ark V. Bucknell

Started by camelt, March 13, 2006, 04:43:10 pm

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camelt


dewayne

i dont follow sports gambling, but that means we are suppose to win by 4?

 


Arazorbackguy1

Pig Pumper, that has got to be the worst picture and quote I have ever seen!
I have 10 to 12 points to make per game.

Feralhog

March 13, 2006, 05:23:14 pm #4 Last Edit: March 13, 2006, 05:26:56 pm by Feralhog
Quote from: dewayne on March 13, 2006, 04:47:17 pm
i dont follow sports gambling, but that means we are suppose to win by 4?

The line is a number odds makers use to balance wagers, it has nothing to do with who's suppose to win.  If a person places a bet at the current line, that person will only win if the hogs win by more than 4.   
Seer, Sage, Soothsayer and former coach finder for the Tejas Longhorns.......Feralhog the Magnificent

Killean

Actually, it has everything to do with who's likely going to win.  The line balances out at where the consensus of money thinks the game will end up.


If Arkansas is too heavily favored, more money goes on Bucknell and the line shifts.

A -4 line means the general consensus is that Arkansas will win by 4 points.
Everyone is born with the right to exist. When you become a Nazi you give up that right.

Feralhog

March 13, 2006, 05:53:05 pm #6 Last Edit: March 13, 2006, 05:58:09 pm by Feralhog
Quote from: Killean on March 13, 2006, 05:32:27 pm
Actually, it has everything to do with who's likely going to win.  The line balances out at where the consensus of money thinks the game will end up.


If Arkansas is too heavily favored, more money goes on Bucknell and the line shifts.

A -4 line means the general consensus is that Arkansas will win by 4 points.

Isn't this what I posted?  The line is a mechanism to help book makers balance bets.  Just because a team is favored by 4 doesn't mean their players are that many points better.  It means -4 is the number book makers think will result in having equal amounts being wagered for both teams.  The line is set at -4 for Arkansas, now if money starts going heavy on Bucknell, the line will drop in an effort to get more people to bet Arkansas and if more money is taking Arkansas and giving the 4, the odds maker will raise the line in an effort to get people to place money on Bucknell. 
Seer, Sage, Soothsayer and former coach finder for the Tejas Longhorns.......Feralhog the Magnificent

Killean

You're missing the forest for the trees...



Arkansas at -4 means that 50% of the people (or amount of money wagered) think that Arkansas is 4 or more points better than Bucknell  50% of the people think that Arkansas isn't 4 or more points better than Bucknell.



Generally it means that if everyone had to come to an agreement it would be that Arkansas is 4 points better than Bucknell.



So yes, a line that stabilizes at -4 means that the nation as a whole believes that Arkansas is in fact 4 points better than Bucknell.
Everyone is born with the right to exist. When you become a Nazi you give up that right.

Woogie

Look for the line to get closer to a pick'em the closer to game time we get.  With all the publicity surrounding Bucknell possibly upsetting Arkansas, I predict the line will go off at Arkansas -3 or maybe even -2.5. 

As far as the previous comments about how betting structure works, the -4 is the opening line made by a few sports handicappers.  The GOING OFF THE BOARD line shows what Vegas has had to do to make it where approximately 50% is picking Bucknell and 50% is picking the Hogs.  Thats why lines drop or grow during the week leading up to the game.  A sports book cannot get too overloaded one way or another.  Thats why they adjust lines to make it like this.  This is why I think Arkansas will end up being favored by only 2.5 or 3 at tip time.  All of these people around the country that do not know alot about either team will hear the Jay Bilas's and Digger Phelp's of the world saying Bucknell will win.  Therefore, they will go and take Bucknell. 

Feralhog

Quote from: Killean on March 13, 2006, 05:56:12 pm
You're missing the forest for the trees...



Arkansas at -4 means that 50% of the people (or amount of money wagered) think that Arkansas is 4 or more points better than Bucknell  50% of the people think that Arkansas isn't 4 or more points better than Bucknell.



Generally it means that if everyone had to come to an agreement it would be that Arkansas is 4 points better than Bucknell.



So yes, a line that stabilizes at -4 means that the nation as a whole believes that Arkansas is in fact 4 points better than Bucknell.

Everyone who wagers is not a professional.  People bet for all kinds of reasons, and while I'm no expert nor have I read any studies, I'd be willing to bet emotion is near the top of the list as to why people bet one way or the other.   

 
Seer, Sage, Soothsayer and former coach finder for the Tejas Longhorns.......Feralhog the Magnificent

VinnyW

the line started at -4.5 on my site today and its already moved down favoring bucknell.....i know im biased but i see no reason for people betting bucknell espeically since it's such a small line to begin with......but whatever it's fine with me you know where my money will be

neblon

March 13, 2006, 06:22:20 pm #11 Last Edit: March 13, 2006, 07:21:19 pm by neblon
Quote from: Killean on March 13, 2006, 05:56:12 pm
You're missing the forest for the trees...



Arkansas at -4 means that 50% of the people (or amount of money wagered) think that Arkansas is 4 or more points better than Bucknell  50% of the people think that Arkansas isn't 4 or more points better than Bucknell.



Generally it means that if everyone had to come to an agreement it would be that Arkansas is 4 points better than Bucknell.



So yes, a line that stabilizes at -4 means that the nation as a whole believes that Arkansas is in fact 4 points better than Bucknell.
The line has nothing to do with who the "nation" thinks thinks will win. Its strickly a point at where the betting public's action will be split evenly for both sides. It is a starting point that can change one way or another depending which side is getting more action.
One huge bet made by one person can change the line by itself so its not about what the nation thinks its about what the people who are laying their cash on the line think. Big difference.
Are you familar with sports betting and how it works because it doesn't seem like you are?

Feralhog

     People will do research on by both teams and determine if the line coincides with the perceived advantage and disadvantages by one team or the other.  They'll look at Bucknell's offensive stats and see how the Hog's defensive numbers match up and vice versa.  Compare strength's and weaknesses then decide if they like the line.
Seer, Sage, Soothsayer and former coach finder for the Tejas Longhorns.......Feralhog the Magnificent

 

Illinihog

I don't see the line dropping to Pick'Em..at the most it might drop to -3, If it drops any lower the "Sharp"  Money will drop a Bomb on the books on Arkansas and then the Books could actually lose money. 

HatfieldHog

I've read this entire thread, and now I know why I don't gamble. If you guys knew as much about rocket science as you do about wagering, we'd have a colony on the moon already.

Blast Off,     See ya
Give a man a fish, he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he will spend all of his money on fishing tackle.....!

Queen Hog

Quote from: HatfieldHog on March 13, 2006, 06:49:45 pm
I've read this entire thread, and now I know why I don't gamble. If you guys knew as much about rocket science as you do about wagering, we'd have a colony on the moon already.

Blast Off,     See ya


Now that is funny.
I lub me some HOGS!!!

Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done without hope and confidence.
Helen Keller

Hawgdawgrain

Pig Pumper, nice avatar...

Karma 4 U...

W has a warrior mentality...we need him...

As for the topic...Hogs win by 11

Illinihog

Quote from: Squishy on March 13, 2006, 07:41:19 pm
I am looking to get into sports gambling just for fun, not too much money, anyone know any good sites?

www.pinbet.com    isn't a bad one at all or www.bodog.com  I have accounts at both.  It's good to have a couple of different ones so you can shop for the better lines and the better juice.

10thPlanet

ok, as the line moves are you locked in at the odds you bet at?

murray-vegas

Quote from: dkwvike on March 13, 2006, 09:28:54 pm
ok, as the line moves are you locked in at the odds you bet at?
Correct. Lots of the "smart" money bets on the underdogs when the odds come out. The public loves to hammer favorites and usually they can get a buy back which gives them the option to middle the game. So "Smart" money buys it low and expects it to go upwards. If I bet the game at what it opened in the Sahara(-4.5) then I'm stuck with that bet. If tons of money is bet on the Hogs, the spread could go as high as 6(I seroiusly doubt it would move more than 1.5 pts) or it might go as low as 3. So the supposed pro gamblers bet on Bucknell at 4.5 instead of the casinos that have it at 4 because they get an extra point with the half point(at 4.5, Bucknell bets win if Hogs win by 4 but if you made it at 4.0 you push).

Shopping for points is important especially with a dangerous line like 4 to 4.5. It's a hard number to protect because if your team(arkansas) is up let's say 6 or 5 and Bucknell has the ball with 5 seconds left, most teams just let the other team score. Nothing like being on the right side and getting backdoored. I hate playing games between 3 and 6.5. If you are up 8 with a few seconds left, most teams won't even try to shoot to screw up a 6.5 line.

Watch for hooks(half points) because they tend to rip your heart out.

WichitaStateRazorback

I'd take that line anyday in a bet.  We will win by 10+.

Tylerhog

murray has it right. the line changes to balance the books after it opens. books make their dough on the juice. normally 10% of losses.
$100 bet on winner = books pay out 100
$100 bet on losers = books collect 110
Net $10.00 by book

hogfan13


Illinihog

Quote from: Tylerhog on March 14, 2006, 07:29:26 am
murray has it right. the line changes to balance the books after it opens. books make their dough on the juice. normally 10% of losses.
$100 bet on winner = books pay out 100
$100 bet on losers = books collect 110
Net $10.00 by book


Techincally if you risk $100 you win $90.09 or whatever.

If the juice is -110 you have to risk $110 to win $100

 

Tomhog™

Quote from: HatfieldHog on March 13, 2006, 06:49:45 pm
I've read this entire thread, and now I know why I don't gamble. If you guys knew as much about rocket science as you do about wagering, we'd have a colony on the moon already.

Blast Off,     See ya

Hey!  I resent that remark!  ;)

HighOnHogs

I think we win by 15 points.  These guys have no idea what kind of hog whoopin they are heading into. 

pfrg999

Quote from: Hawgdawgrain on March 13, 2006, 07:46:58 pm
Pig Pumper, nice avatar...

Karma 4 U...

W has a warrior mentality...we need him...

As for the topic...Hogs win by 11


Amen Brother ... Like the Pic  +1
Musician, Audio Engineer, Entertainment <br />Writer and Hardcore Razorback watching Hog Fan!!!

HogISH™

Quote from: Squishy on March 13, 2006, 07:41:19 pm
I am looking to get into sports gambling just for fun, not too much money, anyone know any good sites?

you will find that all of the on-line book will move their line based on the action but most will end up the same as www.betcris.com...

my advice is to open 2-3 account and shop of the best line of the game you like. some books offer ealy 1/2 points for free which in a lot of cases make the difference in a W vs L.. like a couple of days ago w/ kent state vs toledo line was 5 and i had a push but if i had bought the hook i would have had a winner vs no action.

HogISH
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|_..._..._______===|=||_|__|..., ] -|
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Hogville Trash Can Moderator - my theme song:

Isn't it rich, isn't it queer
Losing my timing this late in my career  And where are the clowns  Quick send in the clowns  Don't bother they're here.

HogISH™

you can also get arkansas @ 200-1 to win it all at sportsbook.com...

just something to throw 10 to 100 on for fun.

current action a caribsports.com:
Arkansas 43.27%
Bucknell 56.73%

thus you saw sunday nights line of 4.5 move to 4, if the percentages raise the line will lower.

HogISH
|^^^^^^^^^^^^^^| ||
|...BEER   TRUCK..........| ||'|";, ___.
|_..._..._______===|=||_|__|..., ] -|
"(@)'(@)"""''"**|(@)(@)*****''(@)

Hogville Trash Can Moderator - my theme song:

Isn't it rich, isn't it queer
Losing my timing this late in my career  And where are the clowns  Quick send in the clowns  Don't bother they're here.

SigPig

A few rules of gambling-
1. Don't gamble what you don't have
2. Don't bet on emotion
3. Never bet on your team (Hogs) - its jinxy

WetSnout

If Dallas is worth 6 to the Hogs like it should be, then in any other venue (besides the Bud Dome) we'd be getting points?  Go figure.  I think the line could edge back up when the reports of all the Pig Nation decending on Dallas roll in.  Not Syracuse nor St. Joseph's crank it up like hogs fans, and when the Bison played a team that did (see Caseron Crazies) they lost by 30+.  Bet the PIGS!

WetSnout

"Caseron Crazies"?  Sorry, should be working.  Meant Duke fans.

_Collin1

Quote from: SigPig on March 14, 2006, 11:02:14 am
A few rules of gambling-
1. Don't gamble what you don't have
2. Don't bet on emotion
3. Never bet on your team (Hogs) - its jinxy

There is one time you should ALWAYS bet on the Hogs.  If we are ever a +5, take the HOGS and bet all you have.  Look at all the games this year we have won or kept within 5 points.  You'd be damn rich.
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hogfankb

Quote from: SigPig on March 14, 2006, 11:02:14 am
A few rules of gambling-
1. Don't gamble what you don't have
2. Don't bet on emotion
3. Never bet on your team (Hogs) - its jinxy

I like betting on the hogs. I know their strengths and weaknesses better than every other team. But you are right don't bet on emotion. Hard for me to do against the basketball hogs. The football hogs are a different story. Every gripes about that Vandy game but I made a killing.

taintlint

Quote from: Arazorbackguy1 on March 13, 2006, 05:13:46 pm
Pig Pumper, that has got to be the worst picture and quote I have ever seen!

I always hope that his avatar is at least slightly sarcastic. It's pretty cheesy......and that's coming from the guy with two gay cowboys for an avatar.

HouTxRzbck

Quote from: cameltoe on March 13, 2006, 04:43:10 pm
The Hogs are -4.  8)

That sounds about right.  Also nice user name  :D
"Do you do drugs Danny...?"

"...Every Day"

"So what's the problem...?"

murray-vegas

Quote from: BigC51 on March 14, 2006, 11:16:01 am
Quote from: SigPig on March 14, 2006, 11:02:14 am
A few rules of gambling-
1. Don't gamble what you don't have
2. Don't bet on emotion
3. Never bet on your team (Hogs) - its jinxy

There is one time you should ALWAYS bet on the Hogs.  If we are ever a +5, take the HOGS and bet all you have.  Look at all the games this year we have won or kept within 5 points.  You'd be damn rich.

I tend to ignore rule # 3 even though it's one of my own rules in gambling. Too many times we've played to close to the number. We are 15-10-2 against the number this year which is over the the 55% mark you need to crack a profit. I know I won a few games by the hook. Too bad I got off the Hogs early when they couldn't cover a game to save their lives. Not sure what they are against a +5 but I'll look it up real quick.

Ready, we've been +5 underdogs a whole 1 time this year, so I guess you can't make a ton of loot. We covered the game losing to LSU by a pt when it was +6.5. Uconn was +4.5, Mary +3.5, @Bama +1.5, @Kent +3.5(win), LSU +6.5(win), @Tenn +2.5 (win), and FLA(SEC tourn) +3. So in games we were dogs we went 3-4 against the number.

The last time I bet the Hogs game was when we started our winning streak so I refuse to bet them again to keep the streak alive. I swear I didn't bet them during the SEC tourney. So don't blame me.

Ahenso

I just looked up the line according to Bodog.com  They have us as a 4.5 point favorite. I believe the hogs will cover that espically with so many people out their taking bucknell. They don't have Ronnie B. now do they.. Wooo Pig Sooie

Lando Calrissian

I don't know how any of this Vegas stuff works.

How could we be favored by 4.5?

Is there a logical explanation for favoring (or disfavoring) a team by half points?

"Not only will Arkansas win by 4, they will win by 4.5!"
Quote from: Breems

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haGfGkX-MbA&feature=youtube_gdata

Quote from: HawgBallLvrKentucky would be in the same position right now at #1 even with Pel as their HC.

Quote from: IronHogJohn Stockton wouldn't sniff today's NBA.

Quote from: jacksonpollackEvery time I look around in BWA I get dizzy. It is hard to judge the capacity. During the Auburn game I tried to count all the people in attendance but got lost at around 30,000.

Lando Calrissian

So if I bet money that Arkansas will win by 4.6, then that means I win money?












Sadly, I am not joking.  I have no clue how this stuff works.  Even those "in the know" have to admit it's  a bit silly.
Quote from: Breems

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haGfGkX-MbA&feature=youtube_gdata

Quote from: HawgBallLvrKentucky would be in the same position right now at #1 even with Pel as their HC.

Quote from: IronHogJohn Stockton wouldn't sniff today's NBA.

Quote from: jacksonpollackEvery time I look around in BWA I get dizzy. It is hard to judge the capacity. During the Auburn game I tried to count all the people in attendance but got lost at around 30,000.

Ahenso

Being favored by 4.5 just means that we have to win the game by 5 points to win your bet if you bet the hogs. If the hogs win by 4 then you lose your bet. It's just another advantage that vegas and bookies have. In some terms that extra .5 point and be the difference in millions of dollars

lunchbox72703

I'll see your 4.5, and raise you 1.5  ;)

Illinihog

I'll probably stay a way from this game.  These kind of games can kill you.  Does anyone remember the Kentucky game ending with Brewer making that garbage 3?  Well I had us that day he won me money, but games like and this one with the line like it is stinks because of meaningless shots like that with No Defense being played.  But on the flip side I wouldn't want to take Buck because if it becomes a foul fest at the end and we hit some FT's and they aren't scoring the final outcome could become 8-10 points and then I get back doored when they have had the spread covered all game or been within striking distance. 

There are better games out there tonight for example Western Kentucky +7.5 and Wake Forest +3.5, I think both of those two road teams could win out right tonight in the NIT.

HOGLUVIN

Quote from: Lando Calrissian on March 15, 2006, 02:26:11 am
So if I bet money that Arkansas will win by 4.6, then that means I win money?












Sadly, I am not joking.  I have no clue how this stuff works.  Even those "in the know" have to admit it's  a bit silly.

This means a lot more to the people that bet parlee's. there cant be a push (you lose parlee on a push), there will be a winner. you or the house. no tie.

MCPeePants

Quote from: Lando Calrissian on March 15, 2006, 02:26:11 am
So if I bet money that Arkansas will win by 4.6, then that means I win money?

You don't pick Arkansas to win "by" anything. Regardless of what the line is, you just pick one team or the other.

In this example, if the line is Arkansas -4.5 and you pick Arkansas, you will win the bet if Arkansas wins the game by 5 or more and you will lose it if Arkansas wins by 4 or less or if Bucknell wins by any amount. There is no possibility of a push when the line contains a half point in it.

If the line is Arkansas -4 and you pick Arkansas, you will win the bet if Arkansas wins by 5 or more, you will push if Arkansas wins by exactly 4, and you will lose if Arkansas wins by 3 or less or if Bucknell wins by any amount.













FLKeysGuy

Quote from: Lando Calrissian on March 15, 2006, 02:24:31 am
I don't know how any of this Vegas stuff works.

How could we be favored by 4.5?

Is there a logical explanation for favoring (or disfavoring) a team by half points?

"Not only will Arkansas win by 4, they will win by 4.5!"

Maybe the 1/2 point is a free throw that rims out.  ;)

jackel1h

I don't play by the Vegas line. I wager on my gut feeling.

My gut says Arkansas wins by 12
If your not the lead dog........The view never changes.

hogfankb

Quote from: HOGLUVIN on March 15, 2006, 09:09:40 am
This means a lot more to the people that bet parlee's. there cant be a push (you lose parlee on a push), there will be a winner. you or the house. no tie.

My bookie allows pushes in parlays. If you have 3 team parlay and one game is a push. It just bumps your odds down to a 2 team parlay.

HOGLUVIN

Quote from: hogfankb on March 15, 2006, 10:47:12 am
Quote from: HOGLUVIN on March 15, 2006, 09:09:40 am
This means a lot more to the people that bet parlee's. there cant be a push (you lose parlee on a push), there will be a winner. you or the house. no tie.

My bookie allows pushes in parlays. If you have 3 team parlay and one game is a push. It just bumps your odds down to a 2 team parlay.

cool! a lot of em wont do that, and on a 2 team they wont gimme jack.

iCalledThatHogBrotha!

Whats the Over/Under on the Total score?