Wanna know if we're in the "Dance"? Track this site.

[WizardofhOgZ]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Impressive record of naming the correct at-large bids over the last decade.  Check out the discussion of the factors they measure to come to these conclusions in the video below:

[hoglady]

Thanks for posting.
As of right now I counted 6 SEC teams in.
Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss.
With A&M the first team out.

[Danny J]

Thanks for posting.
As of right now I counted 6 SEC teams in.
Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss.
With A&M the first team out.

Very possibly could get 6 in this year.....

SEC hiring of Greg Shaheen has worked wonders in terms of adjusting to the RPI non-sense.

[chiefhawg]

I follow this guy each year.  He is amazingly accurate.

[Biggus Piggus]

Thanks for posting.
As of right now I counted 6 SEC teams in.
Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss.
With A&M the first team out.

Those numbers are hard to interpret. They draw the bubble line at 45 because there's 36 at-large bids + nine likely conference winners who would qualify on an at-large basis. Remember that bids go to the conference tournament champs not regular-season champs.

If everything goes perfectly and the top conferences' winners (right now would be Kentucky, Kansas, Georgetown/Villanova, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona/Utah, Gonzaga, VCU, Tulsa) all get their automatic bids, then you've got all of the top 45 getting in. I'd argue that we have a 10th conference to deal with, as Wichita State and Northern Iowa of the Missouri Valley are both worthy.

If any of those loses to a team that otherwise would get an at-large, fine. Problem comes when a bubble team or worse rises up and takes the conference tournament title.

In the top 50, you should have 11 automatic bids, could have 12 depending on how Conference USA turns out. If things went perfectly, you could have 36 at-large bids available with 38 of the top 50 in contention.

Get a few upsets, then that line creeps higher. Last year, the top 50 in the Dance Card prediction (the last one not the January one) got 47 tournament bids including 11 automatic.

Of course, much of the field will be decided by results from now through the conference tourneys. What factors matter in the Dance Card model?

RPI ranking -- this is final RPI as of Selection Sunday
Conference RPI ranking -- ranking only within the conference
Wins over top 25 opponents -- using RPI ranking for top 25
Conference wins minus conference losses -- includes league tournament
Top 26-50 wins minus top 26-50 losses -- RPI ranked
Top 51-100 wins minus top 51-100 losses -- RPI ranked

As of today -- Arkansas has top 25 wins over SMU and Georgia -- the top 25 loss to Iowa State doesn't matter in this formula. Upcoming game: Kentucky. All opportunity, no risk.

In 26-50 -- Wins over Dayton and Alabama, loss to Ole Miss. Upcoming: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss.

In 51-100 -- Win over Iona, losses to Tennessee, Clemson. Upcoming: Tennessee, Florida.

Down the stretch, Arkansas has games against sub-100 Auburn, Missouri, Mississippi State and South Carolina that carry nothing but risk. No reward except survival.

The Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, TAM, and LSU games will dictate a lot. Right now, Arkansas's combined 26-100 mark is 3-3.

[popcornhog]

Those numbers are hard to interpret. They draw the bubble line at 45 because there's 36 at-large bids + nine likely conference winners who would qualify on an at-large basis. Remember that bids go to the conference tournament champs not regular-season champs.

If everything goes perfectly and the top conferences' winners (right now would be Kentucky, Kansas, Georgetown/Villanova, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona/Utah, Gonzaga, VCU, Tulsa) all get their automatic bids, then you've got all of the top 45 getting in. I'd argue that we have a 10th conference to deal with, as Wichita State and Northern Iowa of the Missouri Valley are both worthy.

If any of those loses to a team that otherwise would get an at-large, fine. Problem comes when a bubble team or worse rises up and takes the conference tournament title.

In the top 50, you should have 11 automatic bids, could have 12 depending on how Conference USA turns out. If things went perfectly, you could have 36 at-large bids available with 38 of the top 50 in contention.

Get a few upsets, then that line creeps higher. Last year, the top 50 in the Dance Card prediction (the last one not the January one) got 47 tournament bids including 11 automatic.

Of course, much of the field will be decided by results from now through the conference tourneys. What factors matter in the Dance Card model?

RPI ranking -- this is final RPI as of Selection Sunday
Conference RPI ranking -- ranking only within the conference
Wins over top 25 opponents -- using RPI ranking for top 25
Conference wins minus conference losses -- includes league tournament
Top 26-50 wins minus top 26-50 losses -- RPI ranked
Top 51-100 wins minus top 51-100 losses -- RPI ranked

As of today -- Arkansas has top 25 wins over SMU and Georgia -- the top 25 loss to Iowa State doesn't matter in this formula. Upcoming game: Kentucky. All opportunity, no risk.

In 26-50 -- Wins over Dayton and Alabama, loss to Ole Miss. Upcoming: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss.

In 51-100 -- Win over Iona, losses to Tennessee, Clemson. Upcoming: Tennessee, Florida.

Down the stretch, Arkansas has games against sub-100 Auburn, Missouri, Mississippi State and South Carolina that carry nothing but risk. No reward except survival.

The Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, TAM, and LSU games will dictate a lot. Right now, Arkansas's combined 26-100 mark is 3-3.

South Carolina could end up higher at year's end, but yeah -- not a ton of "opportunity."

Those 26-50 games are gonna be big.