2/15

[holeinthewall]

I am hoping it dries out.

I think the most overlooked Jockey at Oaklawn is Rodney Prescott I love him on a closer I hope he sticks around the entire meet

You might get a good one in the 5th. 11 horse dropping from open 6250 claimers to state bred 10k claimers and she won the race against open.  Prescott riding.  Been good on the off track also 2-1-1-0.

I have come to the conclusion no one associated with Oaklawn knows how to handicap a 1st timer.  I listened to Nancy and the temp on Saturday and saying they wanted to see a race over the track and then they both got smoked with the 1st timer AGAIN.  The chick in the form won't touch a 1st timer and the odds maker for Oaklawn almost always has them at high odds.

That said Race 2 I will take 3  1st timers if the track is at least good in the 7,8,11.  If not I could see about 5 different horse that have already run winning if these 3 don't fire first out.

[WBOBO]

I am hoping it dries out.

You might get a good one in the 5th. 11 horse dropping from open 6250 claimers to state bred 10k claimers and she won the race against open.  Prescott riding.  Been good on the off track also 2-1-1-0.

I have come to the conclusion no one associated with Oaklawn knows how to handicap a 1st timer.  I listened to Nancy and the temp on Saturday and saying they wanted to see a race over the track and then they both got smoked with the 1st timer AGAIN.  The chick in the form won't touch a 1st timer and the odds maker for Oaklawn almost always has them at high odds.

That said Race 2 I will take 3  1st timers if the track is at least good in the 7,8,11.  If not I could see about 5 different horse that have already run winning if these 3 don't fire first out.

The only time I will play  a first time starter is if the trainer says it SHOULD will run a good race, or if a trainer has an exceptional first time starter record.  Especially at OP.  Lots of new things for a horse, especially the indoor paddock.   Just my opinion though.

[Russ22]

I have read that FTS in MSW deserve a play if these things are going for it:
(1) training win % with FTS is 11% or higher
(2) sire win % with FTS is 11% or higher
(3) 2 or more sharp workouts

The horse is a good bet if none of the experienced maidens ran par for MSW last time & any 2nd starter does not project to par with normal improvement from FTS

[Russ22]

Btw, the same book (James Quinn) claims you should never take insider info over the data available in a form.

[userpick]

I have read that FTS in MSW deserve a play if these things are going for it:
(1) training win % with FTS is 11% or higher
(2) sire win % with FTS is 11% or higher
(3) 2 or more sharp workouts

The horse is a good bet if none of the experienced maidens ran par for MSW last time & any 2nd starter does not project to par with normal improvement from FTS

I won't argue with 1,3 but #2 is overblown by most people IMO. I believe the dam side can give us much more info about a horse. The sire has tons of offspring while the dam only has a select few. I will say I use the sire to determine if a horse may potentially like a certain distance or if they will like the mud.

[userpick]

Btw, the same book (James Quinn) claims you should never take insider info over the data available in a form.

This should be a book of its own!

[holeinthewall]

The 3 in the 6th is the one I had $50 to win on and hit that P4 with on 1/26.  The 1/15 work 49.2 Hg is the main reason I played him.  The race didn't have any horses that had ran that looked solid.  This horse had a solid work tab and a Gate work at Oaklawn.  I won't play them without a solid 4 or 5f gate work at Oaklawn

The horse is a good bet if none of the experienced maidens ran par for MSW last time & any 2nd starter does not project to par with normal improvement from FTS

In race 2 the beyer par is 54  Only one horse has ran within 10 points of that.   I will stick with the 3 first timers.

[Russ22]

The 3 in the 6th is the one I had $50 to win on and hit that P4 with on 1/26.  The 1/15 work 49.2 Hg is the main reason I played him.  The race didn't have any horses that had ran that looked solid.  This horse had a solid work tab and a Gate work at Oaklawn.  I won't play them without a solid 4 or 5f gate work at Oaklawn

In race 2 the beyer par is 54  Only one horse has ran within 10 points of that.   I will stick with the 3 first timers.

Ha! I think you know as much as this guy then. His preference rules for maiden claiming races in descending order:

• MSW drop downs that show early speed
• MSW drop downs with talent to suggest that they can get the lead by the pace call
• MSW drop downs with ONE dull running line - provided 8-1 or better
• Maiden claimers dropping from significantly higher tag
• Maiden claimers making 2nd start - provided none of the above are present
• FTS in fields were experienced maiden claimers have record Beyer Speed Figure below 60

Basically in race 2, you don't have any MSW drop downs except the 12 (that horse does not look healthy to me from its running lines) and no higher tags dropping. So, you are down to the bottom 2 preferences.

The 2nd starters are the 2, 3 and 9.

The FTS are the 1, 7, 8, and 11. I think you said you toss the 1 because it doesn't have a solid 4 or 5f gate work at OP.

I am teachable 

[Russ22]

I wouldn't be surprised by a Win / Place board that showed 6 (Spanish Avenue) / 5 (Hamazingly Rich) or vice versa though.

[userpick]

If a first time starter breaks from the 1 hole and wins, they are much the best. Even more so at Oaklawn. The way the 6 furlong races are at oaklawn, the 1 hole has to break quickly and then run outward or else he would run into the rail. Martin Brothers excel with Arky breds, but have to go against that one. 11 would be the first timer I'm interested in.

[jdelo77]

The complete handicapper is a great book by Quinn , he also has another one that he talks about a lot of high % angles ...

[Russ22]

The complete handicapper is a great book by Quinn , he also has another one that he talks about a lot of high % angles ...

That's the one I am reading. I think you may have pointed me to it.

[jdelo77]

I originally read almost everything Andy Beyer wrote , but i like James Quinns handicapping style much better ! I need to revisit my kindle library ...I like where Quinn talks about trainers no a lot of people have heard of that win at a good % with big odds , the tote board  can determine if a FTS is live..

BTW beyers book my 10,000 year at the races is very good ! Not a lot about handicapping but , a great look at the his life that year as he tries to make 10k in year at different tracks ..

[Russ22]

Silly question: why would the "speed figure guru" agree to give up his edge? Did he make much more by selling it than he did using it?


Now, who has a good early DD play?

[36RED]

DD
4,5 / 10,3

[Russ22]

I just don't see it for the 10 in the 2nd, but I will root for you.

[Russ22]

If a first time starter breaks from the 1 hole and wins, they are much the best. Even more so at Oaklawn. The way the 6 furlong races are at oaklawn, the 1 hole has to break quickly and then run outward or else he would run into the rail. Martin Brothers excel with Arky breds, but have to go against that one. 11 would be the first timer I'm interested in.

Taking a flyer on 11.

$2 across on 11 in 2nd

[Russ22]

3rd Race:
Exacta Key Box:  10 / 1, 6, 9, 11

$2 WPS on 9 [Off Track: 8  3-1-2]

[userpick]

Race 7:
Gonna swing for the fences.

Win bets on 1,2


Exacta box 1,2,10

[Russ22]

Race 7:
Gonna swing for the fences.

Win bets on 1,2


Exacta box 1,2,10

Exacta Key Box:  3 / 1,5,6,10

[Russ22]

Race 7:
Gonna swing for the fences.

Win bets on 1,2


Exacta box 1,2,10

Very NICE!!!

I jumped with you at the last second.

[userpick]

Very NICE!!!

I jumped with you at the last second.

Good deal. Nice start to the week of racing.

[holeinthewall]

Ha! I think you know as much as this guy then. His preference rules for maiden claiming races in descending order:

• MSW drop downs that show early speed
• MSW drop downs with talent to suggest that they can get the lead by the pace call
• MSW drop downs with ONE dull running line - provided 8-1 or better
• Maiden claimers dropping from significantly higher tag
• Maiden claimers making 2nd start - provided none of the above are present
• FTS in fields were experienced maiden claimers have record Beyer Speed Figure below 60

Basically in race 2, you don't have any MSW drop downs except the 12 (that horse does not look healthy to me from its running lines) and no higher tags dropping. So, you are down to the bottom 2 preferences.

The 2nd starters are the 2, 3 and 9.

The FTS are the 1, 7, 8, and 11. I think you said you toss the 1 because it doesn't have a solid 4 or 5f gate work at OP.

I am teachable 

None of them broke well at all but the 8 was probably 8 lengths behind 100 yards out of the gate and ran up to 3rd on the corner within a couple lengths of the lead.  Maybe worth a look next time out.

The only thing I hit all day was the early P5 at Gulfstream I got back $269.70 off of $48 bet.  I joking said I should just quit now.. In retrospect I didn't cash crap at Oaklawn 4th race I had the 2 to win got nailed late and paid $5.20 to show.   Should have just gone with the show bet.  That CD slop race loooked to good to pass on though.