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Tesla

Started by Kenny Hawgins, June 25, 2016, 08:46:32 am

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Kenny Hawgins

After the latest deal with Solar City, I can't help but see this as completely overvalued.  They still can't consistently put out anything other than hype and turning a profit doesn't seem to be part of their business plan. 

Is there any good reason NOT to short Tesla? 
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ricepig

Quote from: Kenny Hawgins on June 25, 2016, 08:46:32 am
After the latest deal with Solar City, I can't help but see this as completely overvalued.  They still can't consistently put out anything other than hype and turning a profit doesn't seem to be part of their business plan. 

Is there any good reason NOT to short Tesla? 

A good reason?? The only one I can think of is there a lot of companies like it that seem to be way overvalued, and people keep buying their stock. I've ridden in one of the cars, very nice but I don't think I'd own one at this juncture.

 

Kenny Hawgins

Quote from: ricepig on June 25, 2016, 09:16:36 am
A good reason?? The only one I can think of is there a lot of companies like it that seem to be way overvalued, and people keep buying their stock. I've ridden in one of the cars, very nice but I don't think I'd own one at this juncture.
True.  I'm considering taking a small position but companies like this make me unsure because so much of their stock price seem driven by hype and rumors rather than substance. 

In looking at it, here's what I see:
- They pay no earnings or regular dividends
- They're losing money
- High debt to capital ratio
- Price to sales is 6.6

FWIW though, the entire market is grossly overvalued.  Some companies more than others but at this point, don't know if I'm comfortable going long on anything (and that was before brexit).
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ricepig

Quote from: Kenny Hawgins on June 25, 2016, 09:40:07 am
True.  I'm considering taking a small position but companies like this make me unsure because so much of their stock price seem driven by hype and rumors rather than substance. 

In looking at it, here's what I see:
- They pay no earnings or regular dividends
- They're losing money
- High debt to capital ratio
- Price to sales is 6.6

FWIW though, the entire market is grossly overvalued.  Some companies more than others but at this point, don't know if I'm comfortable going long on anything (and that was before brexit).

To each his own, I'm long a bunch, but most pay dividends between 4-11%. I rarely give anyone market advice, everyone his their own comfort level and gold.

Kenny Hawgins

Quote from: ricepig on June 25, 2016, 09:52:51 am
To each his own, I'm long a bunch, but most pay dividends between 4-11%. I rarely give anyone market advice, everyone his their own comfort level and gold.
Agreed on the gold; have an option on GLD that did pretty well yesterday. 

To amend my statement about being long on anything, I am looking at gold companies.  Wish I had been paying attention last year when Barrick Gold was around $5 per share; now it's up over $20.  Saw that Soros had taken a large stake in the company last year.
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hawgbawb

I wouldn't bet against Musk, who has a pretty impressive track record, with Tesla, PayPal and SpaceX.

He sees the future and has the nads, brains and gravitas to make it happen. Solar City gives him the ultra-low carbon way to generate the power to run his electric cars. Plus he has the battery storage systems now as well. He is assembling a vertical power & transport solution that will disrupt the energy and transport industries. Generate your own power and use it to power your home or business, refuel your car, while doing it the green way. That is pretty appealing to lots of people.
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HawgWild

Any idea whether or not these batteries pose a threat to the whole house generator business? I know that they're a component of the "off the grid" power system but are they designed to work with your regular utility's electricity? I wouldn't mind having a battery wall capable of delivering 10 - 24 hours of power during an outage. I think I'd do that over putting in a whole house generator system.

hawgbawb

Quote from: HawgWild on August 03, 2016, 11:53:48 am
Any idea whether or not these batteries pose a threat to the whole house generator business? I know that they're a component of the "off the grid" power system but are they designed to work with your regular utility's electricity? I wouldn't mind having a battery wall capable of delivering 10 - 24 hours of power during an outage. I think I'd do that over putting in a whole house generator system.
Not sure, but they should. One of the things that's possible (assuming the Public Service Commn does its job) is that the battery wall can shave power peaks, meaning that you should get a nice break on your utility bill. That is because the power produced at peak times is the most expensive for the utilco to produce, because they require peaking plants to be online only to meet highest demand times. So the system is overdesigned 99% of the time.
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HawgWild

I hadn't thought about that. Your home could be set up to run off the battery for an hour or so during peak usage periods to reduce the load on the grid. I bet they'd give some type incentive to do this. They do something similar with the switches designed to cycle your ac on and off during these times.

Kenny Hawgins

Quote from: hawgbawb on August 02, 2016, 02:39:26 pm
I wouldn't bet against Musk, who has a pretty impressive track record, with Tesla, PayPal and SpaceX.

He sees the future and has the nads, brains and gravitas to make it happen. Solar City gives him the ultra-low carbon way to generate the power to run his electric cars. Plus he has the battery storage systems now as well. He is assembling a vertical power & transport solution that will disrupt the energy and transport industries. Generate your own power and use it to power your home or business, refuel your car, while doing it the green way. That is pretty appealing to lots of people.
I think your bias is causing you to ignore the fact that they're losing money hand over fist.  Eventually, hype goes only so far if you can't deliver.
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McKdaddy

Quote from: Kenny Hawgins on August 03, 2016, 05:03:10 pm
I think your bias is causing you to ignore the fact that they're losing money hand over fist.  Eventually, hype goes only so far if you can't deliver.

Apple or  Google as possible buyers?
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Kenny Hawgins

Quote from: McKdaddy on August 03, 2016, 08:21:14 pm
Apple or  Google as possible buyers?
I could see that propping up the price but in the intermediate term, I think investors will increasingly become more selective about where they put their money (i.e. put their money into more stable companies that can turn a profit).
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ricepig

Quote from: Kenny Hawgins on August 03, 2016, 09:00:12 pm
I could see that propping up the price but in the intermediate term, I think investors will increasingly become more selective about where they put their money (i.e. put their money into more stable companies that can turn a profit).

It's an idea that I hope works in major production, but I'm not putting my money in it. I rode in one, and I'd buy one if they ever become "more practical".

 

McKdaddy

Quote from: ricepig on August 04, 2016, 07:07:09 am
It's an idea that I hope works in major production, but I'm not putting my money in it. I rode in one, and I'd buy one if they ever become "more practical".

Agree.  I'm resisting pulling the trigger for the same reason.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Kenny Hawgins

Quote from: ricepig on August 04, 2016, 07:07:09 am
It's an idea that I hope works in major production, but I'm not putting my money in it. I rode in one, and I'd buy one if they ever become "more practical".
And that's one of the major headwinds that they're dealing with. 

I know it's a different issue but much of the market is simply dependent upon central bank activity.  People are increasingly going to cash and, if that trend continues, people will be less apt to put money into companies like tesla.  It's already begun if you look at the price ratio of the discretionary sector to defensive stocks (staples & utilities).
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