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Started by steveaustin69, February 26, 2018, 08:33:43 am

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niels_boar

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 09:03:06 am
Interesting info. We're underdogs against anyone with a good offense. I wonder why that could be.

That's not entirely true.

Oklahoma - #17 Pomeroy offense
Vanderbilt - #29 (#2 in SEC only play)
UF - #47 (#6 SEC only)
Mizzou - #52 (#11 SEC only)
UT - #55 (#4 SEC only)
Ole Miss - #65 (#13 SEC only)
A&M - #68 (#9 SEC only)
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

steveaustin69

Quote from: niels_boar on February 27, 2018, 11:37:55 am
That's not entirely true.

Oklahoma - #17 Pomeroy offense
Vanderbilt - #29
UF - #47
Mizzou - #52
UT - #55
Ole Miss - #65
A&M - #68

Quote from: niels_boar on February 26, 2018, 07:46:11 pm
Arkansas is a solid underdog:

houston - 22
auburn - 10
kentucky - 23
louisiana state - 61
north carolina - 7

4 of 5 "underdog matchups" are good offenses. Vandy and Oklahoma are interesting to look at. Aside from them them, the rest are lower than our #38 in these offensive efficiency rankings and not surprisingly dogs against us based upon your model.

I'd argue you still come to the same conclusion. Our defense is bad, and we have to win with our offense.

 

redhogchilipepper

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 08:35:22 am
Coaching hires are a gamble. As I've said we are at the ceiling. I have no way of knowing who will or will not be better than Anderson.  We could end up with the next Tony Bennett or the next Danny Manning.  20 wins and a 7 seed, when they could be vying for a conference title and a 2/3 seed with mere average defense.  If you're fine with just making the tournament, that's you.

Still no answer to my question. That response is similar to what a coach would say when he really doesn't want to answer a reporters question. I have a coach in mind for when Mike is no longer sitting in that chair. As concerned as you are I think you do as well. So lets hear it

niels_boar

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 09:03:06 am
Interesting info. We're underdogs against anyone with a good offense. I wonder why that could be.

I use current season stats of each team.  Looking at their numbers, I didn't realize how far they had fallen off lately, especially on O.  They were a top-15 offense for much of the season.  They are barely top 50 now.  Their defense is actually ranked higher now.  UF is in the bottom half of the SEC in Efg% and possessions per deuce in SEC-only play.  They make fewer total FTs than we do per game and are worse on the offensive glass.  Their offense is so trey dependent.  Of course, they have already bottomed out and surged back once this season.  You just never know what you get from them.  When they get treys from multiple sources, they are hard to guard.

We were a little unlucky to catch them at a peak early in the season.  We caught A&M (there) and apparently UK when both were on upswings as well.  I wish we could have switched the UF and A&M road games and played UK in January.  Mizzou defended UK worse than we did this weekend.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

steveaustin69

Quote from: redhogchilipepper on February 27, 2018, 12:03:02 pm
Still no answer to my question. That response is similar to what a coach would say when he really doesn't want to answer a reporters question. I have a coach in mind for when Mike is no longer sitting in that chair. As concerned as you are I think you do as well. So lets hear it

Eric Musselman, Dan Hurey, Greg McDermott come to mind.  Again, I don't know the right answer; no one does.

niels_boar

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 11:50:21 am
4 of 5 "underdog matchups" are good offenses. Vandy and Oklahoma are interesting to look at. Aside from them them, the rest are lower than our #38 in these offensive efficiency rankings and not surprisingly dogs against us based upon your model.

I'd argue you still come to the same conclusion. Our defense is bad, and we have to win with our offense.

I'm not arguing that defense isn't the weaker side of the ball.  I fully agree that our results indicate that we matchup better with the teams than lean on their D, as opposed to their O.  However, the matchup results don't exactly align to offensive efficiency rankings. Some other factors come into play. 

We were so bad on defense in January that our season numbers are doomed to be lacking.  We can't play well enough to average them out.  However, we clearly aren't the same team that we were in January.  In the last 10 games, starting with UGA, our D has been adequate to good in 8 of 10 games.  It was nonexistent against UK and at LSU.  In 5 of the other games we held opponents to under 1.0 ppp.  The only SEC team averaging less than 1 ppp in SEC play is USC at 0.99 ppp.  We held them to 0.94 ppp.  The schedule got more favorable for us, but there was a time in January when we were giving up higher efficiencies than any single team was averaging.  We couldn't hold anybody under 1.1 ppp. 

The defense wasn't the overriding factor in every loss against good offensive teams either, most but not all.  We actually defended well enough against UNC and LSU at home to have won with our typical offensive showing.  For instance, had we scored at the same pace in either of those games as we did at Bama, they would have been one-possession games.  The offense against LSU at home was an incredible outlier.  No team has scored less efficiently at BWA this season except Samford, and we are a top-25 O.
The jawbone of an ass is just as dangerous a weapon today as in Sampson's time.

steveaustin69

Quote from: niels_boar on February 27, 2018, 12:32:00 pm
I'm not arguing that defense isn't the weaker side of the ball.  I fully agree that our results indicate that we matchup better with the teams than lean on their D, as opposed to their O.  However, the matchup results don't exactly align to offensive efficiency rankings. Some other factors come into play. 

We were so bad on defense in January that our season numbers are doomed to be lacking.  We can't play well enough to average them out.  However, we clearly aren't the same team that we were in January.  In the last 10 games, starting with UGA, our D has been adequate to good in 8 of 10 games.  It was nonexistent against UK and at LSU.  In 5 of the other games we held opponents to under 1.0 ppp.  The only SEC team averaging less than 1 ppp in SEC play is USC at 0.99 ppp.  We held them to 0.94 ppp.  The schedule got more favorable for us, but there was a time in January when we were giving up higher efficiencies than any single team was averaging.  We couldn't hold anybody under 1.1 ppp. 

The defense wasn't the overriding factor in every loss against good offensive teams either, most but not all.  We actually defended well enough against UNC and LSU at home to have won with our typical offensive showing.  For instance, had we scored at the same pace in either of those games as we did at Bama, they would have been one-possession games.  The offense against LSU at home was an incredible outlier.  No team has scored less efficiently at BWA this season except Samford, and we are a top-25 O.

Interesting stuff. Appreciate the input.  What site are you using to source these stats? It'd be interesting to take a look.  I'd like to see what's driving the improvement in PPP. Over the last ten, we're still giving up poor shooting percentages from 2 and 3 and not turning the ball over more.

redhogchilipepper

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 12:13:28 pm
Eric Musselman, Dan Hurey, Greg McDermott come to mind.  Again, I don't know the right answer; no one does.
Thanks I guess you mean Dan Hurley not bad father is a legend. Record is average. McDermott is interesting but not for me. I like Greg Marshall but his salary would be an issue. Buzz Williams is a coach that I have liked for awhile but is average like the ones you mentioned. You're right it's hard to say who would fit.

steveaustin69

Quote from: redhogchilipepper on February 27, 2018, 12:56:23 pm
Thanks I guess you mean Dan Hurley not bad father is a legend. Record is average. McDermott is interesting but not for me. I like Greg Marshall but his salary would be an issue. Buzz Williams is a coach that I have liked for awhile but is average like the ones you mentioned. You're right it's hard to say who would fit.

Yes, meant Hurley. I wanted Buzz back when we hired Anderson, but all in all was fine with the Anderson hire. Buzz has had some good wins this year, but, yes, he's been fairly average at Virginia Tech. Not sure if that's just due to it being Virginia Tech or he's not as good as people thought he might be. I don't think Marshall will leave unless it is a bona fide blue blood throwing a lot of cash at him.

Atlhogfan1

Buzz has done a remarkable job at VT.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

PonderinHog


Atlhogfan1

Quote from: PonderinHog on February 27, 2018, 01:54:48 pm
About last night...

They got my Dukies.  They've taken out NC UVA and Duke this season. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

daprospecta

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 27, 2018, 01:46:14 pm
Buzz has done a remarkable job at VT.
This is what I don't get. VT is a bubble team in his fourth year. Maybe not after last night but you get my drift. His first for years look similar to Mike's except he made the tourney one year earlier but did get put in the first round.  I think Buzz is a good coach but I look at results.  If you compare Mike's results with most coaches fans consider as good, you will see his results are very similar or even better. This is why I keep saying, if you fire Mike, you better not hire a coach with a similar resume at another school.  Bring in a top coach or sit on your hands if we keep having solid years.

 

steveaustin69

Quote from: daprospecta on February 27, 2018, 02:50:03 pm
This is what I don't get. VT is a bubble team in his fourth year. Maybe not after last night but you get my drift. His first for years look similar to Mike's except he made the tourney one year earlier but did get put in the first round.  I think Buzz is a good coach but I look at results.  If you compare Mike's results with most coaches fans consider as good, you will see his results are very similar or even better. This is why I keep saying, if you fire Mike, you better not hire a coach with a similar resume at another school.  Bring in a top coach or sit on your hands if we keep having solid years.

Dude. I'm by no means a homer, but we are leaps and bounds a better program than Virginia Tech. Their expectations/barometer of success should not be the same as ours. They also play in a more difficult conference. Comparing Mike and Buzz's tenure is not Apples to Apples.

You're not going to get a sitting P5 coach that is highly successful. That just does not happen unless there is a scandal involved. Are you ok with 20 wins and an 8 seed 3 of 4years or do you want to try for the next Tony Bennett?  It's a risk/reward. There's not a right or wrong answer.


Atlhogfan1

Quote from: daprospecta on February 27, 2018, 02:50:03 pm
This is what I don't get. VT is a bubble team in his fourth year. Maybe not after last night but you get my drift. His first for years look similar to Mike's except he made the tourney one year earlier but did get put in the first round.  I think Buzz is a good coach but I look at results.  If you compare Mike's results with most coaches fans consider as good, you will see his results are very similar or even better. This is why I keep saying, if you fire Mike, you better not hire a coach with a similar resume at another school.  Bring in a top coach or sit on your hands if we keep having solid years.

Look dummy(this was changed by the board's auto censorship), this is why I don't list coaches on here even if the conversation has nothing to do with Anderson. 

In this case, for me it doesn't.  My admiration for Buzz and the job he has done at Va Tech is the same as my fandom of Duke basketball.  It has nothing to do with the Hogs or Mike Anderson in the least.  And if they were to ever play, I'm all Hog. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 02:59:53 pm
Dude. I'm by no means a homer, but we are leaps and bounds a better program than Virginia Tech. Their expectations/barometer of success should not be the same as ours. They also play in a more difficult conference. Comparing Mike and Buzz's tenure is not Apples to Apples.

You're not going to get a sitting P5 coach that is highly successful. That just does not happen unless there is a scandal involved. Are you ok with 20 wins and an 8 seed 3 of 4years or do you want to try for the next Tony Bennett?  It's a risk/reward. There's not a right or wrong answer.

By listing a name, you gave the fanboys a target.  Can't mention a coach on here in any way even if it has nothing to do with the Hogs as they will be targeted as they are seen as an enemy.

As far as Buzz:

This was VT's NCAAT history:
1979 2nd R
1980 2nd R
1985
1986
1996 2nd R
2007 2nd R
4 wins in their entire history
 
The coach before Buzz went 13-19 and 9-22.

This would be the first time since the early 80s they could have 3 straight winning seasons in conference.  The last time they did it they were in the Metro.  Haven't won at least 20 games in 3 straight seasons since the 80's (although 20 now with so many games isn't what it once was).  Could be their first time for back to back NCAAT trips since the 1980s. 

Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

hawg66

Buzz is a good coach. I liked him too when we were looking after Pelphrey. I was always confused by his move to VT. Seemed like he was doing well at Marquette, a school with some tradition and a much easier conference than the ACC.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: hawg66 on February 27, 2018, 03:30:04 pm
Buzz is a good coach. I liked him too when we were looking after Pelphrey. I was always confused by his move to VT. Seemed like he was doing well at Marquette, a school with some tradition and a much easier conference than the ACC.

Looked like a career risk.  I can understand leaving Marquette but VT is a tough job especially when you look at its competition. 

A&M, OU or Ok St should be fighting to hire Buzz when they have their next opening especially A&M.
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

daprospecta

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 27, 2018, 03:06:02 pm
Look dummy(this was changed by the board's auto censorship), this is why I don't list coaches on here even if the conversation has nothing to do with Anderson. 

In this case, for me it doesn't.  My admiration for Buzz and the job he has done at Va Tech is the same as my fandom of Duke basketball.  It has nothing to do with the Hogs or Mike Anderson in the least.  And if they were to ever play, I'm all Hog. 

So let me get this straight.  You make a post about Buzz doing a good job at VT in a thread where the entire page is talking about coaches they have in mind.  I'm supposed to believe your comment was not in reference to WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE IS TALKING ABOUT and it's completely random.  You are either a liar or not paying attention.  Which is it?

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: daprospecta on February 27, 2018, 03:58:20 pm
So let me get this straight.  You make a post about Buzz doing a good job at VT in a thread where the entire page is talking about coaches they have in mind.  I'm supposed to believe your comment was not in reference to WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE IS TALKING ABOUT and it's completely random.  You are either a liar or not paying attention.  Which is it?

Yes, you are supposed to get it straight.  steve and pepper were talking about Buzz and didn't seem to have an appreciation of the job he has done at VT that I believe they should.  Nothing to do with Mike Anderson.

Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

redhogchilipepper

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 27, 2018, 04:02:38 pm
Yes, you are supposed to get it straight.  steve and pepper were talking about Buzz and didn't seem to have an appreciation of the job he has done at VT that I believe they should.  Nothing to do with Mike Anderson.



You got me wrong Bubba. I think Buzz is awesome. I said he was average meaning his win loss record. I'm with Steve a big time coach won't come here. I like Anderson for the most part unlike Steve and willing to see a few more years if we could improve each year. If we don't then let's see what's out there.

steveaustin69

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on February 27, 2018, 04:02:38 pm
Yes, you are supposed to get it straight.  steve and pepper were talking about Buzz and didn't seem to have an appreciation of the job he has done at VT that I believe they should.  Nothing to do with Mike Anderson.

Didn't realize how truly awful VT was. What he's done is pretty wild.

razorback1829

Quote from: steveaustin69 on February 27, 2018, 02:59:53 pm
Dude. I'm by no means a homer, but we are leaps and bounds a better program than Virginia Tech. Their expectations/barometer of success should not be the same as ours. They also play in a more difficult conference. Comparing Mike and Buzz's tenure is not Apples to Apples.

You're not going to get a sitting P5 coach that is highly successful. That just does not happen unless there is a scandal involved. Are you ok with 20 wins and an 8 seed 3 of 4years or do you want to try for the next Tony Bennett?  It's a risk/reward. There's not a right or wrong answer.

Are we really though? I don't think we're that different.

latrops

Quote from: greenEGnHAWGS on February 26, 2018, 12:03:37 pm
I'm just asking as I don't know the answer. But how many up and comer coaches pan out to be a great coach? I would think that the odds are pretty low. So, should we keep a GOOD coach or play the lottery for a GREAT coach?

It is not a one time thing.  You can fire/hire as often as results warrant.  Every three or four years you can try again until you get the right guy.

Anderson is very secure in his position now.  If we lose on the first weekend of this NCAAT and struggle next season, then his seat could start warming up.