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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 27, 2012, 11:49:45 am
I like the Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas State line

Anyone think Arkansas State will stay within 35?  I'm thinking no.

Oregons starting QB may or may not play. Don't know for sure yet, but keep that in mind.
Let's make some waves.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 27, 2012, 12:09:57 pm
Oregons starting QB may or may not play. Don't know for sure yet, but keep that in mind.

Thanks for that. 

Also ASU dismissed WR Earl Lucas yesterday and WR Tres Houston on Friday.  Anyone familiar with ASU know  how much of an impact losing those two will have? 

 

Huckleberry Pig

It will be interesting to see where Hurricane Isaac ends up on the weekend, could affect a lot of games. 

For example, if it's raining in Nashville for the USCe vs Vandy game, I think taking the under on 46 looks like an attractive bet as the game will be forced to be played on the ground, taking a lot of time off the clock and making it tough to score big points

Huckleberry Pig

Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Games I am leaning toward as of now.  Nothing official as of yet. 

Aggies -7
S Carolina -6.5
Michigan +13  no way I think they win, but late junk TD could be the cover there.
W Virginia -24
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 27, 2012, 02:41:20 pm
Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?

Key to this bet will be the weather. If it is raining and has been for a couple of days, I can't see anything but the under.

Quote from: Hooch on August 27, 2012, 11:25:49 am
I believe that game is in Shreveport.  Probably a pretty neutral crowd. 

Thanks for that, completely zoned on that one. Makes this one a little more interesting.
Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 27, 2012, 11:49:45 am
I like the Oregon -35.5 vs Arkansas State line

Anyone think Arkansas State will stay within 35?  I'm thinking no.

I really don't like a lot of 25-40 point spreads, because they can go either way. You can be sitting at 42-3 looking good, and a late TD because the waterboys and cheerleaders are playing can ruin a good night. Seen it happen too many times.

There are some teams I don't mind playing that big of a spread, like OU (stoops would run it up vs his mothers team), old Florida, and most Pac-12 games, but wouldn't advise doing it regularly.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 27, 2012, 02:41:20 pm
Also really leaning toward the Under on the 62pt OU for the aTm vs. La Tech game

aTm's offense oughta be rusty with a new qb/coach but should still be able to hold La Tech on D. 

Thoughts?

I don't bet totals much in the college game or ( over / under). I do more so in the pros.  College totals can actually reach the 70's and even 80 at times.  College games often times scores come in huge bunches. 

A 45 point total for the nfl is considered high.  I know a lot of people that are great cappers vs the line in college ball, but they end up giving back large chunks of their winnings on totals. 

62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.
Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 27, 2012, 09:58:25 pm


62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.

Good pt. My natural inclination is to play the U, b/c I'm only thinking about how the rain can support my bet, instead of how it can also be adverse to my position.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

daprospecta

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 27, 2012, 05:17:56 pm
Games I am leaning toward as of now.  Nothing official as of yet. 

Aggies -7
S Carolina -6.5
Michigan +13  no way I think they win, but late junk TD could be the cover there.
W Virginia -24
Glad this thread is revived.  Don't take the USC-e pick. It's a trap if I've ever seen one.  First off this game started off at 6.5 and everybody and I mean everybody is betting on USC-e.  That being said it's only moved half a point.  That's extremely fishy. Key numbers are important in the NFL but not so much in cfb.  Another thing is Vandy tends to stay in games.  Very few losses last year were by 6 or more.  We seen what Jordan Rogers can do. He's not great but he can play and you know he trained with brother in the off season when he could.  I think USC-e can cover but I see back door written all over this one.  USC-e running Lattimore to burn clock and Vandy sneaks in one.  Vegas doesn't give away games and when they do they move the lines fast.

hawgwild child

Not Official but i like
NC St +3.5
Navy +16
Texas A&M -7
I actually like Bama to cover -13

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: daprospecta on August 27, 2012, 10:41:48 pm
Glad this thread is revived.  Don't take the USC-e pick. It's a trap if I've ever seen one.  First off this game started off at 6.5 and everybody and I mean everybody is betting on USC-e.  That being said it's only moved half a point.  That's extremely fishy. Key numbers are important in the NFL but not so much in cfb.  Another thing is Vandy tends to stay in games.  Very few losses last year were by 6 or more.  We seen what Jordan Rogers can do. He's not great but he can play and you know he trained with brother in the off season when he could.  I think USC-e can cover but I see back door written all over this one.  USC-e running Lattimore to burn clock and Vandy sneaks in one.  Vegas doesn't give away games and when they do they move the lines fast.

I understand what you are saying, but gotta do what I gotta do.  Not playing this game heavy at all,  but will put one unit on SC unless something drastic happens between now and then.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: hawgwild child on August 27, 2012, 11:03:14 pm
Not Official but i like
NC St +3.5
Navy +16
Texas A&M -7
I actually like Bama to cover -13



You may be right on Bama, and I think most would agree with you.  The tide could win it by 40. 

I am thinking bama sputters just enough on offense to keep it interesting.
Let's make some waves.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 27, 2012, 09:58:25 pm
I don't bet totals much in the college game or ( over / under). I do more so in the pros.  College totals can actually reach the 70's and even 80 at times.  College games often times scores come in huge bunches. 

A 45 point total for the nfl is considered high.  I know a lot of people that are great cappers vs the line in college ball, but they end up giving back large chunks of their winnings on totals. 

62 is not a huge number, but if I had to play it I would take the under.  Heavy rain should help as well, but also remember that same nasty weather can cause tons of turnovers on punts, fumbled hand offs you name it.  This often leads to many short fields.  Bit of a catch 22 at times.

Agreed, totals in college games tend to be much higher.  The reason I like it here is because I dont think aTm will allow that many points, I'm thinking 10-14 at most.  I also dont expect them to score a lot of points with the new offense/coach/qb.  Also if it is wet I think that will slow the game down, keep it on the ground and eat up the clock.  Also if it stays on the ground I expect aTm's D-line to be able to hold La Tech pretty easily.  Just my opinion for this game

 

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 27, 2012, 09:36:44 pm
I really don't like a lot of 25-40 point spreads, because they can go either way. You can be sitting at 42-3 looking good, and a late TD because the waterboys and cheerleaders are playing can ruin a good night. Seen it happen too many times.

There are some teams I don't mind playing that big of a spread, like OU (stoops would run it up vs his mothers team), old Florida, and most Pac-12 games, but wouldn't advise doing it regularly.

I normally dont either but the reason I like it is because it is Oregon, at Oregon.  They are not known to ease off the gas and it is a very high-octane offense that I dont think Arkansas State will be able to stay close with.  Oregon also has a potential Heisman candidate in De'Anthony Thomas and I expect them to beef up his resume early on.  Just my reasoning behind my lean 

Huckleberry Pig

BTW they have a pretty good sign-up deal going on at one of the gambling sites.  PM me if you're interested.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Huckleberry Pig

line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it

Hooch

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 28, 2012, 11:57:00 am
line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it

I just don't think anyway that game gets played Thursday.  Looks like ole Issac will be hanging out over shreveport around game time. 

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Hooch on August 28, 2012, 12:08:58 pm
I just don't think anyway that game gets played Thursday.  Looks like ole Issac will be hanging out over shreveport around game time.

good point hooch

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 28, 2012, 11:57:00 am
line bumped up to -7.5 for a&m, makes it a little less safe.  anyone still gonna bite? Im leaning towards still taking it

I'm sure I still will, but I will buy that Half point and bet it -7
Let's make some waves.

Huckleberry Pig

looking at doing a 6pt tease down for Oregon (-35.5), West Virginia (-24.5), and OU (-30.5)...

any thoughts/input on this?

hawgwild child

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 28, 2012, 06:36:09 am



You may be right on Bama, and I think most would agree with you.  The tide could win it by 40. 

I am thinking bama sputters just enough on offense to keep it interesting.
Bama is a game i like but will probably lay off and now im having 2nds thoughts on the A&M game

hawgwild child

Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7

Huckleberry Pig


 

Hooch

August 28, 2012, 05:08:46 pm #624 Last Edit: August 28, 2012, 05:14:01 pm by Hooch
Quote from: hawgwild child on August 28, 2012, 03:50:23 pm
Anybody have any thoughts on Boise St at Michigan St -7

I would lean Mich St if I had to but I ain't touching.  I understand Boise lost a lot but look how they start the season each year.  Doesn't Michigan state look like they belong at the top of this list?

2011 beat #19 Georgia @ Georgia 
2010 beat #10 Georgia Tech
2009 beat #16 Oregon

Boise manages to play WAY above their heads at the first of the year then seems to come back to earth as the season goes on.  Actually I looked up you know Boise has started at least 8-0 every year since 2006 except 1 and that was a loss at Washington.  They have lost 1 opener since 2002 that is pretty good, I know some of those teams are crap but most are  really good teams. 

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 28, 2012, 01:44:34 pm
looking at doing a 6pt tease down for Oregon (-35.5), West Virginia (-24.5), and OU (-30.5)...

any thoughts/input on this?



I never play teasers of any kind.  I certainly wouldn't with multiple large spreads like you are looking at.  The return is simply not worth the risk.  I know many people play them, but not my thing. 

Better bet is find your three strongest plays and parlay them for the 6-1 return on your money should you hit.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

My Ag in-laws aren't looking forward to their FR qb's first. Ollege game to be a start vs UF. But the silver lining will be that, relatively speaking, this UF team is a little weak and might present a&m a chance to beat them.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

McKdaddy

UF will have very little intel on Ags; Ags will have very little intel on Ags, ha.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

jdelo77

I've got a few I like

Iowa state +1
Miami -3
Bama to cover
WV to cover

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: jdelow77 on August 28, 2012, 08:01:29 pm
I've got a few I like

Iowa state +1
Miami -3
Bama to cover
WV to cover


Like the 1st 2, wouldn't bet the last 2 with your money.

The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money.

As far as Bama goes, I can see them winning by a FG, and I can see them winning by 3 TD's. I don't think that Robinson will be able to be Magic Man against their D, but it's Michigan and Hoke has them going in the right direction. I can see them keeping it close, less than a TD, but I just can't see Bama being the team to pull out the bottom Jenga block on the SEC dominance.

I will have my picks posted sometime tomorrow.

Get ready for some football folks, 45 hours and counting. 
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

hawgwild child

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 28, 2012, 10:28:39 pm
Like the 1st 2, wouldn't bet the last 2 with your money.

The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money.

As far as Bama goes, I can see them winning by a FG, and I can see them winning by 3 TD's. I don't think that Robinson will be able to be Magic Man against their D, but it's Michigan and Hoke has them going in the right direction. I can see them keeping it close, less than a TD, but I just can't see Bama being the team to pull out the bottom Jenga block on the SEC dominance.

I will have my picks posted sometime tomorrow.

Get ready for some football folks, 45 hours and counting. 
i just can't see michigan controlling either side of the ball for 4 quarters.  i just keep seeing a 27-13 score.  I like bama to cover, i say it could be around a 17-7 halftime score and them keeping it close for a half but i think bama will cover in the 2nd half

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on August 28, 2012, 05:16:11 pm


I never play teasers of any kind.  I certainly wouldn't with multiple large spreads like you are looking at.  The return is simply not worth the risk.  I know many people play them, but not my thing. 

Better bet is find your three strongest plays and parlay them for the 6-1 return on your money should you hit.

thanks for the advice!

Oliver

Someone may have already posted it but Wyoming +30

McKdaddy

I"m eyeing these:
ISU +1
NC St +3
Also, O/U for Oregon / ASU was 67 on my site yesterday, but has disappeared today. I like the O. A buddy of mine has it showing on his site, but I'll have to keep checking mine.
Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Huckleberry Pig

August 29, 2012, 09:24:31 am #637 Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 09:37:41 am by Huckleberry Pig
Quote from: WILL CLINTON on August 28, 2012, 10:28:39 pm
The truth is, West Virginia may win by 34, but a 24 point spread is just too much chalk to lay when you could be up 45-20 and a late FG or TD screws you out of your money. 

I actually like WVU at -25 and the OVER on that game at 65.  Last year's final score was 34-13 but the game was called because of storms with 14:36 left to play in the 4th quarter (aka they didnt play the entire 4th quarter).  WVU returns 4 starters on the O Line, QB Geno Smith, his two favorite receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, and their 2 running backs Dustin Garrison and Shawn Alston.

On the other hand, WVU ranked next to last in points allowed last year and their D is transitioning this spring from a 3-3-5 to a 3-4.  They also lost 4 of their top 7 tacklers from last season.  Marshall returns their sophmore QB Rakeem Cato (started all of last season as a fresh) who threw for 2,059 yards and 15TDs (again, as a freshman).  They also return 4 of their 5 top receivers.  I really think they will be able to put points on the board.

That being said I have picked WVU at -23.5 (I bought 1.5 points because I wanted to keep their spread under that 24 mark) and have also bet the over at 65.  Sorry for the long post but just wanted to give an informed reason for my pics.

Huckleberry Pig

August 29, 2012, 09:51:29 am #638 Last Edit: August 29, 2012, 10:13:10 am by Huckleberry Pig
The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!

widespreadsooie

I could be wrong, but by just going off the top of my head I believe ASU has done a helluva job against the spread against BCS opponents over the past few years.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: razorback1 on August 29, 2012, 10:10:26 am
I could be wrong, but by just going off the top of my head I believe ASU has done a helluva job against the spread against BCS opponents over the past few years.

You do mean Arkansas State when you say ASU right?

I honestly am unsure of that.  I'll do some research but if you recall the games please let me know

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 10:14:33 am
You do mean Arkansas State when you say ASU right?

I honestly am unsure of that.  I'll do some research but if you recall the games please let me know

Yeah, Arkansas State. Last season, Illinois and Va. Tech couldn't cover. In 2010 Auburn and Indiana couldn't cover. In '09 Iowa didn't cover.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: razorback1 on August 29, 2012, 10:36:12 am
Yeah, Arkansas State. Last season, Illinois and Va. Tech couldn't cover. In 2010 Auburn and Indiana couldn't cover. In '09 Iowa didn't cover.

+1 Razorback1, appreciate the insight.  However, ASU did lose 7 starters on D from last year so I expect them to allow some big points.  I still feel confident in my bet but I would have definitely been a little more hesitant had I known that.  We will see how it goes!   

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 09:51:29 am
The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!

Not trying to be critical. Just letting you know some of my process. To each his own. I will buy a 1/2 a point on spreads like 7.5 or 3.5. Usually cost ten percent so unread of 110.00 to win 100.00 it's 120.00 and even higher for a full point.  I NEVER buy points on huge spreads in college.  Yes it could save you if they win by exactly 36, but what are the odds of that in college with missed extra points ad frequent 2 point conversions.  If the line is that big and you are worried about 1 point you shouldn't be betting the game. Only time I play a 35 point line is when I expect the favorite to score 50 and te dog to not score at all.
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 11:01:53 am
+1 Razorback1, appreciate the insight.  However, ASU did lose 7 starters on D from last year so I expect them to allow some big points.  I still feel confident in my bet but I would have definitely been a little more hesitant had I known that.  We will see how it goes!   

Hope it works out of ya! Thomas and Barner should run all day.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: razorback1 on August 29, 2012, 11:21:48 am
Hope it works out of ya! Thomas and Barner should run all day.

Thanks! you betting any games this weekend?

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 11:28:32 am
Thanks! you betting any games this weekend?

Yeah. I'm taking Michigan St. -6.5 (now), and maybe WVU -25, still unsure about that one.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: razorback1 on August 29, 2012, 11:31:29 am
Yeah. I'm taking Michigan St. -6.5 (now), and maybe WVU -25, still unsure about that one.

I bit on the WVU -25, also bit on the Over 65.  posted about it above.  What's your take on the Michigan State game, Im scared to bet anything involving boise state lol

widespreadsooie

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 11:41:55 am
I bit on the WVU -25, also bit on the Over 65.  posted about it above.  What's your take on the Michigan State game, Im scared to bet anything involving boise state lol

Yeah, wouldn't bet against a Boise team from the past few years but this one isn't nearly as talented. Especially with them breaking in a new QB, I like this for an easy pick due to Michigan St.'s D and ground attack.

daprospecta

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on August 29, 2012, 09:51:29 am
The two WVU bets were my first two (of three) bets for the weekend.  My last bet was taking Oregon to cover -34.5 (again, the spread is -35.5 but I bought 1 point to keep the spread under that 35 mark just in case). 

I know Oregon has a freshman starting at QB but they have one of the best running back tandems in the nation.  I expect a lot of dump screens and short passes, nothing too hard for the new QB.  With their up tempo offense, I dont think Arkansas States D keeps up.

Granted Arkansas State has the reigning sunbelt player of the year at QB, and they will be trying to establish an up-tempo offense with Malzahn there.  However, Arkansas State also lost two of their receivers recently and Oregon is used to going up against this type of offense in practice.  Overall, I just think there will be too much of a learning curve this early for the ASU guys to put up big points against Oregon.   

It sounds like most of you dont bet the big spreads and I completely understand.  Just wanted to give you my pics for the weekend and my reasons behind my pics.  Please le tme know if you have any input, would love to hear it!
Let's think about what you are asking of Oregon. You are asking them to beat a team that has a player of the year qb and offensive mastermind as a coach(say what you want but the guy can coach offense) to win by 5 touchdowns or more in a game. I'm sure Malz has spent the entire summer summer preparing for this one game and I'm also sure Oregon is overlooking it.  New qb for oregon and along with many other replacements.  Oregon will score but so will ASU.