Starting a bullion stockpile

[AFWarrior83]

I recently decided to stop buying stocks and start purchasing Gold and Silver bullion.

I was wondering what most consider a good time to buy... I just purchased the following:

1 US Mint Original Roll 20 American Eagle Silver Coins (20.000 oz.) = $623.72
1 Canadian Mint Original Roll 25 Canadian Maple Leaf Silver Coins (25.000 oz.) = $780.93

Total after s/h, etc. = $1,492.69

Did I wait to long, right time, or what? I know precious metals were up last year and went down recently. Did I jump in at the right time or too soon? I'm just trying to spread my investments (i.e. stocks, CD's, bullion, etc.)

Also, is it better to purchase bars or coins?

Thanks! -AFWarrior83

[HawgWild]

Also, is it better to purchase bars or coins?

Thanks! -AFWarrior83

Bullion/bar prices track the daily spot price where coins/medals may have an additional, subjective, value as a collectors item. However, when prices get to these levels the collectability value of coins/medals does not increase in direct proportion with the metal price. Also, some places don't want to have to factor in this value and will only buy on weight.

[Old Tusk]

 Bullion vs Coins

Both carry a premium over spot for cost of manufacture and dealer profit.
current spot for gold is 1566. bars are 1596. Eagles are 1624. Silver spot is 28.38. Disc are 29.14. Eagles are 30.86.
While bars are cheaper they require an assay cost when you sell. appears to be somewhat a wash.

The strengthening dollar continues to put dowward pressure on metals. Unless you are speculator timing is not very important.

[OldPoop]

Eagles and Maple leafs are the most recognizable and therefore might be easier to sell, that's why they charge more for them, because they can.  I'm probably 50% Eagles and the rest bars and generic rounds.  As the gold/silver ratio (hopefully) drops, I will try to trade the rounds and bars first.

The important thing is to start.  You have to start somewhere, so don't worry about whether you jumped in at the wrong time.   IMO you need to change your mindset or you will be either constantly beating yourself up or panicking and selling at a loss.  Don't look at bullion as a stock that needs to always go up.  Bullion bought today is merely a storage of wealth measured in today's buying power of fiat currency.  As the banksters and government keep devaluing the currency by printing and spending it will take more and more fiat currency to buy back those oz you have.  The gov inflation numbers are fudged, but eventually the time will come when reality cannot be held back any longer. 

Stacking PMs is like a return to the old days of real money when you could actually do okay saving in a piggy bank or a bank savings account.  Now days saving is stupid with fiat currency because it's constantly shrinking.

You also have to understand that the banksters (with full cooperation of our loving and caring government) play games with gold and silver bullion (as well as the stock market) to shake people loose from their holdings so the banksters can pick it up cheap, and so the dollar is held up a little longer.  Take the time to read up on this so you understand what is going on.  This takes effort.  Constantly look at the big picture and remind yourself of what all the governments of the world are doing with spending and printing (with ours being the worst) and how it will inevitably have to end.  If you don't understand this at your core (or in your heart, or soul, or whatever you want to call it) you will probably lose, because the bankster shills and useful idiots in the media will scare you out of it at the worst possible time to get out.  Unless you are sure about what you are doing, nitwits you interact with on a daily basis, that don't have a clue, will insult your intelligence and ask you how long you've been insane and make you have doubts. 

I know that sounds silly but I cannot emphasize it enough.  You have to read and understand the situation on your own.   You cannot depend on someone else to bolster you up or keep you strong, or to prevent you from letting the pressure to conform with the herd panic you. 

For the past year the banksters have been hammering gold and silver really hard.  This has been fantastic.   If they weren't doing that, a little guy like me could never afford to add little bits to his stack.  However, people have been bailing out by the thousands at a loss.  Jim Sinclair has said all along that by the time this bull market ends the banksters will be holding all the gold.  It's starting to look like an incredibly smart prediction.

Please forgive me for shouting,
ANYBODY, IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT GOLD & SILVER ARE, DON'T GET INVOLVED, YOU WILL LOSE! 

And by understand I mean deep down unshakable.

Don't get caught up in the daily fluctuations in price.  No matter how much the price goes down or goes up, all that matters is the number of oz you have.  Unless you have fewer oz you haven't lost anything.   Unless you have added more oz you are not any richer.  If you don't understand this, you will end up joining all the thousands of losers selling out to the banksters at a loss.

[Old Tusk]

I posted this in another thread but hofefully it is helpful here.

"
Gold is constant. The price is merely the reflection of the strength of the currency it is being valued in. Gold does not create or lose wealth. It simply  adjusts to the value of the currency. If I buy gold at 2k per oz, I would much prefer the price go to $32/oz rather than 4k/oz because my dollars have become more valuable and thus my wealth has increased. If the dollar continues to weaken then only the portion I have in gold will maintain but the rest of my wealth will lose value. If inflation appears on the way then you would want to protect more of your assets by buying more gold. If you were 100% in gold. your wealth would remain constant."

You should buy gold or silver and put it in the vault. The only time you need to really think about the price is when you want to buy more. The metals should be the last asset you use. 

[snoblind]

Something I've thought about doing...  I have Morgan and Peace dollars circa late teens and early 20's (19-).  I thought about trying to trade them for regular junk silver coins - since I've seen those dollars selling at a collector's premium (at coin shows - for example $150-200 when spot was in low 30's) over the silver value I thought it might be possible to increase my net ounces.  Thoughts?

[HognotinMemphis]

I recently decided to stop buying stocks and start purchasing Gold and Silver bullion.

I was wondering what most consider a good time to buy... I just purchased the following:

1 US Mint Original Roll 20 American Eagle Silver Coins (20.000 oz.) = $623.72
1 Canadian Mint Original Roll 25 Canadian Maple Leaf Silver Coins (25.000 oz.) = $780.93

Total after s/h, etc. = $1,492.69

Did I wait to long, right time, or what? I know precious metals were up last year and went down recently. Did I jump in at the right time or too soon? I'm just trying to spread my investments (i.e. stocks, CD's, bullion, etc.)

Also, is it better to purchase bars or coins?

Thanks! -AFWarrior83

You already did it. Why are you asking questions about it now?

[IronHog]

If gold is so valuable why is Glen Beck trying to sell it to you so hard?

[Old Tusk]

Something I've thought about doing...  I have Morgan and Peace dollars circa late teens and early 20's (19-).  I thought about trying to trade them for regular junk silver coins - since I've seen those dollars selling at a collector's premium (at coin shows - for example $150-200 when spot was in low 30's) over the silver value I thought it might be possible to increase my net ounces.  Thoughts?

have a stash of silver dollars some from the 18's. Never realized the collector value is that high. You maay have an excellent idea. I guess it comes down to whether the spot price or collector value will grow faster. any idea what the silver content is.

[snoblind]

http://www.silverrecyclers.com/Calculators/coin_calculator.aspx

http://www.coinnews.net/tools/automated-silver-coin-valuator/

Here's a couple of places.  OT, have to say I didn't ask a lot of questions.  Could have been an "ask price" nobody ever pays or a much higher quality collectible than what I have (say a different mint), but I was looking at coins thinking I have that exact coin and it looks just as good.

[Old Tusk]

both these sites seem to be calculating silver value not collector value. I  have some Eisenhour which are 9 busks.But if the collector value allows us to convert 1 oz to 10 oz, I think I'm in.

[AFWarrior83]

You already did it. Why are you asking questions about it now?

Because I have more money to invest into bullion. I also wanted to know if I went the right route by purchasing coins over bars.

[AFWarrior83]

Eagles and Maple leafs are the most recognizable and therefore might be easier to sell, that's why they charge more for them, because they can.  I'm probably 50% Eagles and the rest bars and generic rounds.  As the gold/silver ratio (hopefully) drops, I will try to trade the rounds and bars first.

The important thing is to start.  You have to start somewhere, so don't worry about whether you jumped in at the wrong time.   IMO you need to change your mindset or you will be either constantly beating yourself up or panicking and selling at a loss.  Don't look at bullion as a stock that needs to always go up.  Bullion bought today is merely a storage of wealth measured in today's buying power of fiat currency.  As the banksters and government keep devaluing the currency by printing and spending it will take more and more fiat currency to buy back those oz you have.  The gov inflation numbers are fudged, but eventually the time will come when reality cannot be held back any longer. 

Stacking PMs is like a return to the old days of real money when you could actually do okay saving in a piggy bank or a bank savings account.  Now days saving is stupid with fiat currency because it's constantly shrinking.

You also have to understand that the banksters (with full cooperation of our loving and caring government) play games with gold and silver bullion (as well as the stock market) to shake people loose from their holdings so the banksters can pick it up cheap, and so the dollar is held up a little longer.  Take the time to read up on this so you understand what is going on.  This takes effort.  Constantly look at the big picture and remind yourself of what all the governments of the world are doing with spending and printing (with ours being the worst) and how it will inevitably have to end.  If you don't understand this at your core (or in your heart, or soul, or whatever you want to call it) you will probably lose, because the bankster shills and useful idiots in the media will scare you out of it at the worst possible time to get out.  Unless you are sure about what you are doing, nitwits you interact with on a daily basis, that don't have a clue, will insult your intelligence and ask you how long you've been insane and make you have doubts. 

I know that sounds silly but I cannot emphasize it enough.  You have to read and understand the situation on your own.   You cannot depend on someone else to bolster you up or keep you strong, or to prevent you from letting the pressure to conform with the herd panic you. 

For the past year the banksters have been hammering gold and silver really hard.  This has been fantastic.   If they weren't doing that, a little guy like me could never afford to add little bits to his stack.  However, people have been bailing out by the thousands at a loss.  Jim Sinclair has said all along that by the time this bull market ends the banksters will be holding all the gold.  It's starting to look like an incredibly smart prediction.

Please forgive me for shouting,
ANYBODY, IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT GOLD & SILVER ARE, DON'T GET INVOLVED, YOU WILL LOSE! 

And by understand I mean deep down unshakable.

Don't get caught up in the daily fluctuations in price.  No matter how much the price goes down or goes up, all that matters is the number of oz you have.  Unless you have fewer oz you haven't lost anything.   Unless you have added more oz you are not any richer.  If you don't understand this, you will end up joining all the thousands of losers selling out to the banksters at a loss.

Thanks Old Poop (and everyone else for that matter) for giving their opinion. I'm not worried about selling anytime soon (I won't retire for another 20+ years)... I just don't know anything about how the silver & gold ratios work.

[snoblind]

both these sites seem to be calculating silver value not collector value. I  have some Eisenhour which are 9 busks.But if the collector value allows us to convert 1 oz to 10 oz, I think I'm in.

I thought you were looking for silver content.  My bad.

I bought a "blue book" to determine the collector's value.  I'm going to check out some of the coins I'm talking about. 

[OldPoop]

Something I've thought about doing...  I have Morgan and Peace dollars circa late teens and early 20's (19-).  I thought about trying to trade them for regular junk silver coins - since I've seen those dollars selling at a collector's premium (at coin shows - for example $150-200 when spot was in low 30's) over the silver value I thought it might be possible to increase my net ounces.  Thoughts?

Sounds like a good plan.
No one can know the future, but imo if we hit the hard times that bullion is the insurance against, people will not be nearly as interested in rarity or collectibility as they will be in weight and purity.

But if I had several, I would keep at least one just for historical and coolness reasons.

[OldPoop]

This is an excerpt from an article by Mark Lundeen of LeMetropole Cafe.

the annual production figures for gold and silver. For every metric ton of gold produced globally, there are only nine tons of silver produced (9:1). And unlike gold, which is the most hoarded commodity in the history of mankind, silver in today's industrialized world is no longer hoarded as money, but primarily consumed and seldom recycled. At today's close, the Silver to Gold Price Ratio (SGR), or the number of ounces of silver one ounce of gold will purchase was at 58.75 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold (58.75:1). If today the SGR were to become 9:1, silver would be revalued to $174 an ounce. It's simply amazing how underpriced silver is today. At current prices, silver is bound to become the investment of our generation!



Yet normally intelligent people will tell you that there is no manipulation of prices going on, and anyone that thinks there is, is just a tin foil hat wearing nutjob, with a weak easily malleable brain, completely at the mercy of laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank con artists.   I guess they are starting to wear me down, because I don't feel like arguing anymore.  I'm starting to think that people often end up getting what they deserve.

Anyhow, the above is why I am a silver bug and have been for 3 1/2 years, and why I am 5+ to 1 (in dollar amount) silver to gold.  With around 50% of siver production being consumed by industry, the 9 to 1 ratio should probably be closer to 5 oz silver to 1 oz gold.  When I started with silver the going ratio was above 70 oz silver to 1 oz gold.  Last year the ratio got down to 30.8 to 1, I know because I was sitting at my computer watching it drop with the intention of starting to swap a little silver for gold at 30 to 1, and increasing the number of oz as the ratio dropped lower.   Unfortunately it reversed and steadily climbed back to 58 to 1.   If I had been a little more professional and a little less of a Fudd and started swapping at 35 to 1 (1 free oz of gold per 70 oz silver swapped), and then swapped back to silver at 58 to 1, I could have more oz today, a minimum of 116 oz today for each 70 oz swapped then.   The number of oz is all that matters, not the price.

But I don't trust the banksters enough to stay in silver indefinitely, even though the future for silver appears to be almost unlimited, so I hope to be holding 1 to 5 (in dollars) silver to gold eventually.

[PEtrader]

Metals move up and down just like any other security, and there is a time to buy and a time to sell.   Owning all stocks is foolish, just like owning all metals.  With Europe going the way it is you should see a strengthening dollar which is pushing down the gold price.  As I have often argued there is a "fear" trade in gold that you have to realize is there.  As things smooth out, which they inevitably will, realize that the bottom could very well fall out of gold.  That being said the amount of dollars printed should hold the price high due to inflation for awhile.  I would throw in to not let your fear rule you and realize that long term mixing some metals, real estate, and some ETFs will treat you better than buying coins only.

[OldPoop]

Metals move up and down just like any other security, and there is a time to buy and a time to sell.   Owning all stocks is foolish, just like owning all metals.  With Europe going the way it is you should see a strengthening dollar which is pushing down the gold price.  As I have often argued there is a "fear" trade in gold that you have to realize is there.  As things smooth out, which they inevitably will, realize that the bottom could very well fall out of gold.  That being said the amount of dollars printed should hold the price high due to inflation for awhile.  I would throw in to not let your fear rule you and realize that long term mixing some metals, real estate, and some ETFs will treat you better than buying coins only.

LOL, you seem to have learned a lot about me from reading one post.

So . . . . tit for tat . . . . from reading your one post . . . .
you seem to have no concept of what gold is or what fiat currency is, and no knowledge of the history of gold or the history of fiat currencies, and you probably do not know the characteristics of good money that have been accepted since the time of Aristotle.   

But you are probably a very good stock trader.

And you are not the first or only one in this forum to think that I am afraid, or unhappy, or uninformed, or extremely gullible (stupid), or all four.

[PEtrader]

LOL, you seem to have learned a lot about me from reading one post.

So . . . . tit for tat . . . . from reading your one post . . . .
you seem to have no concept of what gold is or what fiat currency is, and no knowledge of the history of gold or the history of fiat currencies, and you probably do not know the characteristics of good money that have been accepted since the time of Aristotle.   

But you are probably a very good stock trader.

And you are not the first or only one in this forum to think that I am afraid, or unhappy, or uninformed, or extremely gullible (stupid), or all four.

Rather presumptive of you to assume that I was talking to you.  My post was pointed towards the original poster.


Why do I have no concept of gold?

[OldPoop]

Rather presumptive of you to assume that I was talking to you.  My post was pointed towards the original poster.


Why do I have no concept of gold?

1)  My bad.  I get into the same misunderstandings all the time with others.  I guess it's the limits of proper English, the singular "you" vs the plural "you".

2) You gave yourself away with the common misconception
"As things smooth out, which they inevitably will, realize that the bottom could very well fall out of gold."

In the first place things are not going to "smooth out".  Below is the U.S. budget 2011 with 8 zeros removed to make it more understandable.   The government purposefully throws around the term "trillions" so easily and often because they know it is too difficult for the average person to comprehend. 

Annual family income: $21,700
* Money the family spent: $38,200
* New debt on the credit card: $16,500
* Outstanding balance on credit card: $142,710

Total budget cuts: $385 (after a lot of fighting and name calling between mom and dad)

Plus mom and dad have sworn to pay a lot of money in the future to people they know (unfunded liabilities), and they had bad luck in losing a lot of side bets with others (OTCDs).  This is such a mess that the exact amount isn't easy to figure out for certain, but it's at least $2,000,000 and could possibly be several times that amount.

Their situation is worse this year, and will be worse next year, and every year on the horizon.

I keep waiting for a loving and caring government official (or anyone anywhere) to explain to me in logical real world terms how things are going to "smooth out" for this family.  But so far I have only been told how afraid or unhappy or dumb or just plain crazy that I am.  Evidently not thinking about it or pretending it isn't there will make things better. 

The inmates are truly running the asylum.


In the second place it's not possible for the bottom to fall out of gold.   Gold does nothing.   Everything else moves in relation to gold (think of the sun and the planets) and has throughout civilized human history (except for the last 41 years of brilliant and successful brainwashing).

Plus you made the common mistake of thinking that the "bottom falling out of gold" would be a bad thing.  No one would be happier than me if it took half or less colored paper to buy an ounce of gold (or in my case silver for now).   The price of gold is irrelevant.  The number of ounces you hold is all that matters.

Gold is a store of value, a real savings account, nothing more.  If you put gold into a piggy bank it will be roughly the same value when you take it out in the future.  If your great grandfather buried two jars in his back yard in 1932, one with 5 $20 government issued colored pieces of paper and one with 5 $20 government gold coins, only one held it's value until today.   Would you rather have $100 or nearly $8000 dollars today?  Next year would you rather have $100 or $10,000?   The year after that would you rather have $100 or who knows how many thousands?  It's not a difficult decision is it?

Gold is not an investment, it is protection.  Comparing it to the stock market is pointless.  People should not be forced to invest in the stock market casino in order to keep up with the purposeful planned theft of inflation.  Past generations had real money backed by gold, and could safely save money and have the same value later on when they needed it.  If you save colored paper today you are a sucker that is getting robbed on a daily basis without a clue that it is happening.

But during a stock market crash like 1929 (or the next big one), it would be nice to have a pile of gold that held its value and could be converted into blue chip stocks for 10 to 20 cents on the dollar like the banksters did back then.

If Monday morning dawns with it taking fewer pieces of colored paper to purchase an ounce of gold it can only be for one of two reasons:
1) The above family (or their neighbors) has started making noticeable positive progress in straightening out their finances, or
2) Just like most days, the banksters (with government approval to protect the dollar) manipulated the price down through illegal naked shorting and HFT programs that set off the automatic stop loss sell points of the funds and individual investors.  I know, tin foil hat.  It's not a problem for JP Morgan to have 25% of shorts in silver futures, but it is manipulative for someone else to have 5% of the shorts in copper and they had to stop.
It's not important that the head of the CFTC said there was likely manipulation going on, and his investigation has been dragging on for almost 4 years.   IMO, what is important is that unlike the previous investigations, this one will find problems, but not until it benefits the banksters for it to be known.  There's lots of info on the subject for anyone that wants to know, but the majority don't need to look at it because they "know" that the whole idea is stupid and crazy.

I won't even get into the definition of value and what has it and why, or Aristotle's' characteristics of good money (our colored paper doesn't pass), or the real purpose of fiat currencies (theft), or the success rate of fiat currencies everytime they have been tried throughout history (100% failure), or how the banksters have been herding us like sheep for generations for their personal benefit, or how our government officially got into bed with the banksters in 1913 by giving them their own private bank with a license to print money as they see fit. 

That would take an investment of time and effort that I am not willing to make.

[PEtrader]

1)  My bad.  I get into the same misunderstandings all the time with others.  I guess it's the limits of proper English, the singular "you" vs the plural "you".

2) You gave yourself away with the common misconception
"As things smooth out, which they inevitably will, realize that the bottom could very well fall out of gold."

In the first place things are not going to "smooth out".  Below is the U.S. budget 2011 with 8 zeros removed to make it more understandable.   The government purposefully throws around the term "trillions" so easily and often because they know it is too difficult for the average person to comprehend. 

Annual family income: $21,700
* Money the family spent: $38,200
* New debt on the credit card: $16,500
* Outstanding balance on credit card: $142,710

Total budget cuts: $385 (after a lot of fighting and name calling between mom and dad)

Plus mom and dad have sworn to pay a lot of money in the future to people they know (unfunded liabilities), and they had bad luck in losing a lot of side bets with others (OTCDs).  This is such a mess that the exact amount isn't easy to figure out for certain, but it's at least $2,000,000 and could possibly be several times that amount.

Their situation is worse this year, and will be worse next year, and every year on the horizon.

I keep waiting for a loving and caring government official (or anyone anywhere) to explain to me in logical real world terms how things are going to "smooth out" for this family.  But so far I have only been told how afraid or unhappy or dumb or just plain crazy that I am.  Evidently not thinking about it or pretending it isn't there will make things better. 

The inmates are truly running the asylum.


In the second place it's not possible for the bottom to fall out of gold.   Gold does nothing.   Everything else moves in relation to gold (think of the sun and the planets) and has throughout civilized human history (except for the last 41 years of brilliant and successful brainwashing).

Plus you made the common mistake of thinking that the "bottom falling out of gold" would be a bad thing.  No one would be happier than me if it took half or less colored paper to buy an ounce of gold (or in my case silver for now).   The price of gold is irrelevant.  The number of ounces you hold is all that matters.

Gold is a store of value, a real savings account, nothing more.  If you put gold into a piggy bank it will be roughly the same value when you take it out in the future.  If your great grandfather buried two jars in his back yard in 1932, one with 5 $20 government issued colored pieces of paper and one with 5 $20 government gold coins, only one held it's value until today.   Would you rather have $100 or nearly $8000 dollars today?  Next year would you rather have $100 or $10,000?   The year after that would you rather have $100 or who knows how many thousands?  It's not a difficult decision is it?

Gold is not an investment, it is protection.  Comparing it to the stock market is pointless.  People should not be forced to invest in the stock market casino in order to keep up with the purposeful planned theft of inflation.  Past generations had real money backed by gold, and could safely save money and have the same value later on when they needed it.  If you save colored paper today you are a sucker that is getting robbed on a daily basis without a clue that it is happening.

But during a stock market crash like 1929 (or the next big one), it would be nice to have a pile of gold that held its value and could be converted into blue chip stocks for 10 to 20 cents on the dollar like the banksters did back then.

If Monday morning dawns with it taking fewer pieces of colored paper to purchase an ounce of gold it can only be for one of two reasons:
1) The above family (or their neighbors) has started making noticeable positive progress in straightening out their finances, or
2) Just like most days, the banksters (with government approval to protect the dollar) manipulated the price down through illegal naked shorting and HFT programs that set off the automatic stop loss sell points of the funds and individual investors.  I know, tin foil hat.  It's not a problem for JP Morgan to have 25% of shorts in silver futures, but it is manipulative for someone else to have 5% of the shorts in copper and they had to stop.
It's not important that the head of the CFTC said there was likely manipulation going on, and his investigation has been dragging on for almost 4 years.   IMO, what is important is that unlike the previous investigations, this one will find problems, but not until it benefits the banksters for it to be known.  There's lots of info on the subject for anyone that wants to know, but the majority don't need to look at it because they "know" that the whole idea is stupid and crazy.

I won't even get into the definition of value and what has it and why, or Aristotle's' characteristics of good money (our colored paper doesn't pass), or the real purpose of fiat currencies (theft), or the success rate of fiat currencies everytime they have been tried throughout history (100% failure), or how the banksters have been herding us like sheep for generations for their personal benefit, or how our government officially got into bed with the banksters in 1913 by giving them their own private bank with a license to print money as they see fit. 

That would take an investment of time and effort that I am not willing to make.

Although I don't think that you are wrong on alot of your points, I think your assumption to all metal is misplaced. I will go with a piece from the article that Wilbur put up that sums up my opinions.



62. My three strikes against gold. Strike one: Its value can't be estimated with basic math (since it just sits around producing nothing). Strike two: Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel showed that going back to the 1800s, the return on gold has barely kept up with inflation and is left in the dust by stocks and bonds. Strike three: Gold as a doomsday investment doesn't make much sense. If the apocalypse (financial or otherwise) actually comes, you're probably screwed regardless.

I would also add that my biggest reason to not get into it though is that there are too many people like you shouting from the hill tops that you have to go to gold.  I am not saying you are wrong, because alot of the points you make are valid, but when everyone and their dog are talking about buying gold then there is evidence of a fear bubble. 

I don't advocate going totally to stocks either.  My money is in inflation hedges like real estate and hedge funds. 

For your pessimism there is also the flip side of optimism.  The truth is probably somewhere in between.  Things will smooth out because the only thing you can count on is change and statistically it is change or a reversion to the mean.    A great investment question you should always ask yourself is what happens if you are wrong?

[OldPoop]

Although I don't think that you are wrong on alot of your points, I think your assumption to all metal is misplaced. I will go with a piece from the article that Wilbur put up that sums up my opinions.



62. My three strikes against gold. Strike one: Its value can't be estimated with basic math (since it just sits around producing nothing). Strike two: Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel showed that going back to the 1800s, the return on gold has barely kept up with inflation and is left in the dust by stocks and bonds. Strike three: Gold as a doomsday investment doesn't make much sense. If the apocalypse (financial or otherwise) actually comes, you're probably screwed regardless.

I would also add that my biggest reason to not get into it though is that there are too many people like you shouting from the hill tops that you have to go to gold.  I am not saying you are wrong, because alot of the points you make are valid, but when everyone and their dog are talking about buying gold then there is evidence of a fear bubble. 

I don't advocate going totally to stocks either.  My money is in inflation hedges like real estate and hedge funds. 

For your pessimism there is also the flip side of optimism.  The truth is probably somewhere in between.  Things will smooth out because the only thing you can count on is change and statistically it is change or a reversion to the mean.    A great investment question you should always ask yourself is what happens if you are wrong?

If you or Wilbur or anyone else believes that not thinking about the above sample family (U.S.) financial problems will enable it to smooth out "because things change", then more power to you.

I'm not shouting anything from anywhere.  I love the Hogs and therefore in my mind anyone else that loves the Hogs is a good worthwhile person and deserves to at least be introduced to some truth about what is going on, because it can not be found in the msm or any gov/bankster reports.  Several times I've told people on here to not read my posts (OldPoop is plainly in sight as a warning) if they think I'm stupid or crazy or out to get their money.  What people on this forum do with their money is entirely their business.  I just think they deserve all the facts before they make a decision.   I don't expect anyone to do what I say or do, but imo if they have a brain they will at least put out the effort to see on their own if I'm right.  The info is easy to find.

Strike one.  Gold is stored value, it does nothing.  Fiat currency also does nothing, except guarantee to shrink in value.  Did you grasp what I said about the buying power of 5 $20 bills vs 5 $20 gold coins over time?  It doesn't sound like it.   

Strike 2, Jeremy Siegel, LOL.  Here again, don't take any one person's word, look it up yourself.   Without reading Jeremy's article I will assume (I know, a** u & me) from your statement that Jeremy did not mention that there was practically no inflation "going back to the 1800's".  That it was so little that people were not even aware of it.  But since 1913 it has been over 4000%, with the majority of that since 1971.  I bet Jeremy didn't tell you that before 1933 gold was locked at $20.67 by the U.S. government, and from 1933 to 1971 gold was locked at $35 (+ the gov stole every American's gold).  It's hard to keep up with inflation when it's locked to a single price and can't go up a penny, and your loving and caring government does not allow you the freedom to own it.  (Tip:  Anyone that uses the failure of gold to hold it's value vs inflation pre 1971 is a bankster shill trying to keep the herd dumb and happy until we arrive at the slaughter house.)

Obviously you do not believe that gold/silver prices are currently being artificially held down by bankster manipulation or you would not even make that statement about not keeping up with inflation.  There's lots of info on the subject, but if it makes you feel better to ignore it (like ignoring the U.S. budget catastrophe above), then once again, more power to you.
(Tip:  The DOW price is being artificially held up while precious metals prices are being artificially held down.  No manipulation can be successful forever.  Which one do you want to be in when the manipulation finally fails?)

Strike 3, Doomsday.  Too many people have been watching too many Mad Max movies.   How about we try to keep ourselves in the real world and look at history instead of the dumbest single group of people on the face of the earth, Hollywood actors and their movies?
Germany post WWI:  Their debt was so huge that they could never pay it off so the government decided to inflate their way out of it. (Sound familiar?)  After the war an ounce of gold was 100 Marks.  By 1923 it was 83 trillion Marks an ounce.  So, do you see a problem with colored paper here?  The people that were smart enough to have some savings stored in gold/silver did well while others lost nearly everything.   I read that an entire city block of commercial real estate could be bought for 500 oz of gold.   But to my knowledge people did not resort to cannibalism nor rode around dressed like Hollywood Freaks killing each other for gas, food, or sex.   Not only that, but within 15 years Germany was one of the strongest (if not the strongest) countries in the world.

There have been many countries through history that had their economy and currency fail.  Guess what?  They are still here and the vast majority of the people survived it.  The people suffered much more than they needed to and lost much more than they needed to because they had faith in their crooked politicians and their colored paper that could be printed to infinity.  The most recent off the top of my head Argentina and Zimbabwe (and Chile?).  The countries and the people are still here, just most of the citizens are much poorer than they were before because of the wealth transfer to the banksters and government.   People that had some gold or silver were much better off than the average person.

I keep a 50 trillion dollar Zimbabwe note and a 50 million Mark note on my desk as a daily reminder of the value of colored paper, and how much Big Government loves and cares for its citizens.

I guess I missed everyone and their dog talking about gold.  Perhaps I'm living in a vacuum.  Because where I live I'm a nutjob for buying precious metals.  I'm the only person I know that thinks gold is a great buy right now.  When I try to talk to my relatives about gold or silver they stare at me like my dog does when I talk to her (but they don't look happy like she does).  Outside of Internet contacts I don't know anyone loading up on PMs.  And most people on the Internet think I'm crazy too.  I see people going into "We Buy Gold" shops and selling their gold and silver for 20% to 25% of its value to conmen.  Somehow I can't seem to grasp how all this indicates we are in a bubble, but then most people will tell you that I am dumb.

Yes there are a lot of optimists out there running around.  The recession ended 2 years ago, things are looking up.  We're on the verge of printing and borrowing our way out of debt.   If I run into one that actually has a clue about what is going on I might have to reevaluate my strategy.

It's not easy going against the herd, in anything.  Whenever I start feeling pressure to conform to popular thought (and I do) I always stand back and take a look at the big picture to see if anything has changed.  Has it gotten better or worse?  Do I see any promise of things getting better?   What has always happend throughout history when these circumstances are present?

So far I've always decided that I am very comfortable with the path I've chosen to follow.

[OldPoop]

IMO, where most people go wrong is when they think the dollar is real money with value.  It is a fiat currency, with absolutely nothing backing it, no inert value whatsoever, only the people's faith and hope that the government (and the private banksters that they gave the power to print currency) will not abuse the currency causing it to lose value.  I think any rational semi informed person is aware of the answer to that.

It would be absolutely pointless to buy gold if we had good money that held it's value.

The only reason the dollar has not already collapsed is because it is the world's reserve currency.   Other countries are in the process of making sure that does not continue for too much longer.

[snoblind]

62. My three strikes against gold. Strike one: Its value can't be estimated with basic math (since it just sits around producing nothing). Strike two: Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel showed that going back to the 1800s, the return on gold has barely kept up with inflation and is left in the dust by stocks and bonds. Strike three: Gold as a doomsday investment doesn't make much sense. If the apocalypse (financial or otherwise) actually comes, you're probably screwed regardless.

Seems like comparing the returns of gold to stocks and bonds is meaningless since gold was basically fixed for most of that time.

[snoblind]

OP, the way I know folks don't seem to be understanding what you write is they think you're 100% in gold.

[PEtrader]

IMO, where most people go wrong is when they think the dollar is real money with value.  It is a fiat currency, with absolutely nothing backing it, no inert value whatsoever, only the people's faith and hope that the government (and the private banksters that they gave the power to print currency) will not abuse the currency causing it to lose value.  I think any rational semi informed person is aware of the answer to that.

It would be absolutely pointless to buy gold if we had good money that held it's value.

The only reason the dollar has not already collapsed is because it is the world's reserve currency.   Other countries are in the process of making sure that does not continue for too much longer.

Actually they aren't, they are back accumlating US green backs at a faster rate than ever.  It is one of the reasons our yield on the ten year is lower than it has ever been.  The US is and will be the reserve currency for the atleast the next 20 years.  You can come up with any arguement you want, but the reality is that there is no one else that can fulfill the role.  And before you say it, if every government went to gold to back up their currency then your gold would be worth a million an ounce which is why they don't switch to it.  It isn't a currency. 

[PEtrader]

OP, the way I know folks don't seem to be understanding what you write is they think you're 100% in gold.

This is my impression.  I agree with some of what Olepoop says, and has some valid points, but he seems to forget all the other asset classes that are better equiped to keep pace with inflation in this environment.

[PEtrader]

If you or Wilbur or anyone else believes that not thinking about the above sample family (U.S.) financial problems will enable it to smooth out "because things change", then more power to you.

I'm not shouting anything from anywhere.  I love the Hogs and therefore in my mind anyone else that loves the Hogs is a good worthwhile person and deserves to at least be introduced to some truth about what is going on, because it can not be found in the msm or any gov/bankster reports.  Several times I've told people on here to not read my posts (OldPoop is plainly in sight as a warning) if they think I'm stupid or crazy or out to get their money.  What people on this forum do with their money is entirely their business.  I just think they deserve all the facts before they make a decision.   I don't expect anyone to do what I say or do, but imo if they have a brain they will at least put out the effort to see on their own if I'm right.  The info is easy to find.

Strike one.  Gold is stored value, it does nothing.  Fiat currency also does nothing, except guarantee to shrink in value.  Did you grasp what I said about the buying power of 5 $20 bills vs 5 $20 gold coins over time?  It doesn't sound like it.   

Strike 2, Jeremy Siegel, LOL.  Here again, don't take any one person's word, look it up yourself.   Without reading Jeremy's article I will assume (I know, a** u & me) from your statement that Jeremy did not mention that there was practically no inflation "going back to the 1800's".  That it was so little that people were not even aware of it.  But since 1913 it has been over 4000%, with the majority of that since 1971.  I bet Jeremy didn't tell you that before 1933 gold was locked at $20.67 by the U.S. government, and from 1933 to 1971 gold was locked at $35 (+ the gov stole every American's gold).  It's hard to keep up with inflation when it's locked to a single price and can't go up a penny, and your loving and caring government does not allow you the freedom to own it.  (Tip:  Anyone that uses the failure of gold to hold it's value vs inflation pre 1971 is a bankster shill trying to keep the herd dumb and happy until we arrive at the slaughter house.)

Obviously you do not believe that gold/silver prices are currently being artificially held down by bankster manipulation or you would not even make that statement about not keeping up with inflation.  There's lots of info on the subject, but if it makes you feel better to ignore it (like ignoring the U.S. budget catastrophe above), then once again, more power to you.
(Tip:  The DOW price is being artificially held up while precious metals prices are being artificially held down.  No manipulation can be successful forever.  Which one do you want to be in when the manipulation finally fails?)

Strike 3, Doomsday.  Too many people have been watching too many Mad Max movies.   How about we try to keep ourselves in the real world and look at history instead of the dumbest single group of people on the face of the earth, Hollywood actors and their movies?
Germany post WWI:  Their debt was so huge that they could never pay it off so the government decided to inflate their way out of it. (Sound familiar?)  After the war an ounce of gold was 100 Marks.  By 1923 it was 83 trillion Marks an ounce.  So, do you see a problem with colored paper here?  The people that were smart enough to have some savings stored in gold/silver did well while others lost nearly everything.   I read that an entire city block of commercial real estate could be bought for 500 oz of gold.   But to my knowledge people did not resort to cannibalism nor rode around dressed like Hollywood Freaks killing each other for gas, food, or sex.   Not only that, but within 15 years Germany was one of the strongest (if not the strongest) countries in the world.

There have been many countries through history that had their economy and currency fail.  Guess what?  They are still here and the vast majority of the people survived it.  The people suffered much more than they needed to and lost much more than they needed to because they had faith in their crooked politicians and their colored paper that could be printed to infinity.  The most recent off the top of my head Argentina and Zimbabwe (and Chile?).  The countries and the people are still here, just most of the citizens are much poorer than they were before because of the wealth transfer to the banksters and government.   People that had some gold or silver were much better off than the average person.

I keep a 50 trillion dollar Zimbabwe note and a 50 million Mark note on my desk as a daily reminder of the value of colored paper, and how much Big Government loves and cares for its citizens.

I guess I missed everyone and their dog talking about gold.  Perhaps I'm living in a vacuum.  Because where I live I'm a nutjob for buying precious metals.  I'm the only person I know that thinks gold is a great buy right now.  When I try to talk to my relatives about gold or silver they stare at me like my dog does when I talk to her (but they don't look happy like she does).  Outside of Internet contacts I don't know anyone loading up on PMs.  And most people on the Internet think I'm crazy too.  I see people going into "We Buy Gold" shops and selling their gold and silver for 20% to 25% of its value to conmen.  Somehow I can't seem to grasp how all this indicates we are in a bubble, but then most people will tell you that I am dumb.

Yes there are a lot of optimists out there running around.  The recession ended 2 years ago, things are looking up.  We're on the verge of printing and borrowing our way out of debt.   If I run into one that actually has a clue about what is going on I might have to reevaluate my strategy.

It's not easy going against the herd, in anything.  Whenever I start feeling pressure to conform to popular thought (and I do) I always stand back and take a look at the big picture to see if anything has changed.  Has it gotten better or worse?  Do I see any promise of things getting better?   What has always happend throughout history when these circumstances are present?

So far I've always decided that I am very comfortable with the path I've chosen to follow.

So what happens if you are wrong?

[snoblind]

This is my impression.  I agree with some of what Olepoop says, and has some valid points, but he seems to forget all the other asset classes that are better equiped to keep pace with inflation in this environment.

I should let OP answer but he has several stocks, and the metal of choice for us poor folks is silver.

[OldPoop]

So what happens if you are wrong?

I really don't understand how you can even ask that after all I posted above, or why you would think that things can still work out okay.   Obviously we are not communicating.

But to answer your question, if I am wrong I guess I will see people borrow and spend their way to wealth, and that debts have no meaning and don't need to be repaid.  I will see that printing and creating colored paper out of nothing by the hundreds of trillions actually works, and everyone in the world will be well off because their loving and caring governments want to take care of them and will print as much money as necessary to achieve this goal.   I will find out that we don't actually need jobs because the government can send anyone a check indefinitely.   If I am wrong I will see that instead of just 1% or 2% of the population (and the banksters) surviving the Greater Depression with their savings mostly intact, everyone will survive with their savings not only intact but larger because of the magic of the printing press.   Then I will probably see monkeys fly out of my rear, "Now fly my pretties, fly!"


Have you ever thought about what if you are wrong, and we aren't able to defy history and logic?

What will happen to you if the stock market crashes to 10 to 20 cents on the dollar (for good stocks) like has happened before, and the government closes banks for several days like has happened before, and the currency loses 70% or 90% or more of its purchasing power like has happened to many countries (including ours before the dollar)?

Like I said, I'm happy with my decision. 
If you are happy with yours, then I guess we are finished here.

[OldPoop]

This is my impression.  I agree with some of what Olepoop says, and has some valid points, but he seems to forget all the other asset classes that are better equiped to keep pace with inflation in this environment.

You must not be reading my posts.   I will try one more time.

It's pointless to compare gold to the stock market.
Gold does nothing, just like fiat currency does nothing. 
Gold is a store of value, fiat currency is a guaranteed loss of value.
There would be no inflation to keep up with if we had sound money. 
Inflation is not normal, it is a bankster/government scam to steal from every pocket, piggy bank, paycheck, savings account, and dollar they print.

Our great grandparents had sound money.  They could stuff money (paper or gold coin) into a jar and pull it out 10 or 20 years later and have the same value of purchasing power.   They didn't have to risk their hard earned money with a banker, broker, or the gov to keep up with inflation.   We don't have that right today. We should not be forced to "invest" our dollars (so they can take an even larger cut) and take on risk of any kind just to keep what we have earned.   Gold is the only option today if you want to keep your money in a jar or piggy bank and out of the thieving grubby hands of the banksters and gov crooks.  That's why they hate it.  That's why they have spent the last 41 years brainwashing us into believing the exact opposite of what has been true for thousands of years.   You see no problem with these crooks forcing us to risk our earnings by running it through their fingers to keep up with their theft through inflation.  Okay.  I do.  That's another way we are different.


It shouldn't matter what I'm invested in.   Either what I am saying is correct or I am a crazy nutjob full of crap.   There is no middle ground here.

But because Sno brought it up,
Currently 3/4 of my retirement is in stocks, 1/4 in bullion.
Of the bullion I'm >80% silver, <20% gold.

However, as the silver/gold ratio drops I hope to end up 80% gold and 20% silver.

As we get closer to The Greater Depression I hope to be 3/4 bullion and 1/4 stock, so I can eventually take advantage of bargain buys in Blue Chips just like the banksters did in The Great Depression.   Imitate the pros.

That's my goal anyhow.  I realize the banksters or gov could throw a monkey wrench into it at any time, but I feel better with a plan.

[1873Hawg]

I buy some silver bullion, but the majority of my metal purchases are in:

Steel



and Brass/Lead

[PEtrader]

I buy some silver bullion, but the majority of my metal purchases are in:

Steel



and Brass/Lead

You can never have too much ammo.

[PEtrader]

You must not be reading my posts.   I will try one more time.

It's pointless to compare gold to the stock market.
Gold does nothing, just like fiat currency does nothing. 
Gold is a store of value, fiat currency is a guaranteed loss of value.
There would be no inflation to keep up with if we had sound money. 
Inflation is not normal, it is a bankster/government scam to steal from every pocket, piggy bank, paycheck, savings account, and dollar they print.

Our great grandparents had sound money.  They could stuff money (paper or gold coin) into a jar and pull it out 10 or 20 years later and have the same value of purchasing power.   They didn't have to risk their hard earned money with a banker, broker, or the gov to keep up with inflation.   We don't have that right today. We should not be forced to "invest" our dollars (so they can take an even larger cut) and take on risk of any kind just to keep what we have earned.   Gold is the only option today if you want to keep your money in a jar or piggy bank and out of the thieving grubby hands of the banksters and gov crooks.  That's why they hate it.  That's why they have spent the last 41 years brainwashing us into believing the exact opposite of what has been true for thousands of years.   You see no problem with these crooks forcing us to risk our earnings by running it through their fingers to keep up with their theft through inflation.  Okay.  I do.  That's another way we are different.


It shouldn't matter what I'm invested in.   Either what I am saying is correct or I am a crazy nutjob full of crap.   There is no middle ground here.

But because Sno brought it up,
Currently 3/4 of my retirement is in stocks, 1/4 in bullion.
Of the bullion I'm >80% silver, <20% gold.

However, as the silver/gold ratio drops I hope to end up 80% gold and 20% silver.

As we get closer to The Greater Depression I hope to be 3/4 bullion and 1/4 stock, so I can eventually take advantage of bargain buys in Blue Chips just like the banksters did in The Great Depression.   Imitate the pros.

That's my goal anyhow.  I realize the banksters or gov could throw a monkey wrench into it at any time, but I feel better with a plan.

It's not that I am not reading your posts, It's that I am trying to understand where you got your start on being so tied into this theory.  You are mixing your political outlook, emotions, and they way you wish things were as opposed to reality into your investment approach which is a no no.  Inflation and deflation are functions of economics, your denying that they existed with our great grandparents is a symptom of recency.  They have been around every sense toto found an extra bag of shells to trade with when everyone thought that there was only one bag.  Now has inflation been multiplied by our current system, you bet. Does that mean that the world is going to come crashing down 20 years, 10 years, or even a year from now?  Probably not.  There are a myriad of reasons, if you want I can go into them.

Without taking up 30 pages with stats, the economy has stabilized to a point.  The data is there. I am a perma bear, and I can even admit that.   We do need more jobs, and better paying jobs.  We also need an educated workforce, and I don't just mean college, and  we need tax reform.  These can be fixed and fairly easily but over time.  The biggest reality with American jobs is that we A) are lazy and entitled B) computers have made a large chunk of our workforce outdated and that workforce would rather bitch about how unfair it is than retool or move to North Dakota to drill oil etc.

You are wrong, but probably not in the way you think I think you are wrong.  There is a middle ground and your are wrong in thinking that there isn't.  Some of what you think is going to happen will happen, but the majority is again your emotions getting in the way of your investing along with you rationalizing your data and theory in an attempt to make right what you want to be right.  You do realize that if our money is inflated to the point that you think it is, artificially high which I agree with, that if inflation or money manipulation was to disappear  with a strengthening dollar that your gold will plummet in price because it is artificially high right? 

I am not out to just tell you are wrong and I am right,  I am simply trying to give some clarity and an altering view so that others don't go out and sell their entire IRA any buy GLD.

There are other asset classes, and ways to maneuver against hyper inflation which in my opinion will be a reality at some point, but will then be followed by deflation.  1) buy real estate both real assets and securitized.  2)   take advantage of the credit squeeze with out buying bonds, chiefly private equity/bdc setups.  3)  buy commodities at the right time including gold  4) don't speculate  5) buy a mixed basket of stocks and quit trying to pick winners  6) look for some inflation pegged assets to mix in 7)  research hedging  8)buy real estate both real assets and securitized 9) dump your long and mid term bonds if you haven't already

You can do all these without being an institutional investor.

[OldPoop]

You do realize that if our money is inflated to the point that you think it is, artificially high which I agree with, that if inflation or money manipulation was to disappear  with a strengthening dollar that your gold will plummet in price because it is artificially high right? 

Gold is artificially low not artificially high.   The 1980 high should be over $3000 in today's dollars.   It's not worth the effort to me to research, but I would SWAG that there is somewhere between 10x and 100x or more worthless fiat currency floating around today than in 1980.  At some point (when the banksters will benefit most) gold will be allowed to catch up and achieve equilibrium.

I have never said that gold is the only way to go.  Only that it is the least risky in today's environment ( which you don't see yet).  Some types of income producing land or real estate is hard to beat.  IF you make the right choice and IF either market prices or our meddling oppressive government or both, don't wipe you out first.  There are lots of ways to make money if you want to take the risk.  Gold does not make money, so I refuse to argue with you on that point.

Where is the middle ground?
Either PMs are manipulated or they are not.
Either the DOW is manipulated or it is not. (Can there be partial manipulation, or is there some amount that has to be exceeded before it is officially manipulation?)
Either we can pay off this impossible to pay off debt or we can't.
Either we can create dollars out of thin air in perpituity or we can't.
Either it's possible to borrow and spend your way to wealth or it is not.
Either banksters have been living off of us and herding us like sheep for generations or they have not.
Either the banksters and the government have been robbing us through inflation or they have not.
I could go on and on but you should be getting my point.

These are not "I believe some" or "I don't believe some" points.   
These are either facts or lies.

I see no middle ground anywhere in the above.  Of course anyone is free to be wishy washy and not make a choice, pretend that the problem and the evidence is not really there, and maybe it will just go away if I just continue to ignore it.   Unfortunately we do not live in a fairy tale or a 60 minute tv drama where it is always okay before the end of the show.

Inflation will not, can not disappear in the current environment.
I don't care about 50 or 100 years ago, or 50 or 100 years from now.  I only care about today and maybe out to 5 years or a little more when it comes to the value of gold.  If I'm still alive I will cross the deflation bridge when we finally come to it.  IMO it's pointless to worry about it now.  I'm more concerned about the bridge I have to cross that's right in front of me.

Money manipulation will never end as long as there are banksters and crooked government officials.  Tell me when they will no longer exist and I will tell you when the manipulation will end.

 
Yes I do realize that if inflation and money manipulation goes away gold price will drop, because that will mean we have sound money, and like I have already stated above, buying gold would be pointless with sound money.   If that happens in the next 5 years (without gold going way way way higher in fiat currency cost first), I will come over to your house and let you count the flying monkeys that I generate.

[hog.goblin]

I'm still trying to figure out why gold has any significant value in the 21st century.

Cash/currency was supposed to be a convenience to monetize the value of our goods and services since they couldn't be easily bartered.

It's a shame that governments can't control spending to keep inflation in check so that our stored up earnings wither away.

Oversimplified, but it is what it is.

[OldPoop]

I'm still trying to figure out why gold has any significant value in the 21st century.

For the exact same reason that it has for the last several thousand years.

Banksters and governments can't effortlessly mass produce gold.  It takes luck to find it to begin with, then it takes incredible time, effort, and investment to produce it. It's the man hours involved, the time, effort, and cost it takes to produce it that gives gold it's inherent value.  That's why they hate gold and have spent so much time and energy brainwashing our generations into forgetting thousands of years of history and truth, and getting us to trust them to print and create what we need.

Hold a $1 bill next to a $100 bill.  What is the difference besides 2 zeroes?  How many man hours, how much time and effort and cost do you think were involved in producing the $1 bill?  5 cents worth?  10 cents?  Maybe more, maybe less?  Do you think the $100 bill took 100x more time, effort, and cost to produce than the $1 bill?
(Hint: No.  In reality they have the same value.  We just happen to not be living in reality at the moment.  Unless you accept the bankster created fairytale land as reality.)

A year or so ago a surprise audit of the Fed showed that over the preceding 3 or 4 years the banksters had secretly created $16 trillion and passed it out among themselves.  Do you think it would have been remotely possible for them to produce $16 trillion worth of gold to give to themselves?  Even it it was possible, which do you think they would rather do?   Take two seconds to punch in some zeroes on the Fed computer key board, or invest many years and many billion$ in time and effort to produce that much gold?

Over and over and over throughout history governments have debased their currency to steal from the masses.  Every single time it has ended badly for the country and for the people.  When gold and silver were the currencies the gov would make the coins smaller or mix a cheap metal in it to stretch what they could produce.  But the easiest way has always been to just print up colored paper and force the subjects to accept it at gun point as having real value.  It has always failed for the same reason, gov greed pushing it too far.  It's just human nature.

Read about how gold is mined, the difficulty and cost, and how 90% go out of business before producing an ounce.  The fact that it is hard to produce is what gives it value.  Value in man hours of work that can not be effortlessly created with a couple of key strokes.  Why do you think diamonds are so expensive?  Not because they can be created by the ton every day with little or no effort.  According to Aristotle one of the key characteristics of money is inherent value.  How much inherent value is in mass produced colored paper or computer key strokes?

You're asking the wrong question.

Don't ask why gold has any significance today.  Ask why colored pieces of paper that can be produced effortlessly and infinitely by the banksters in the Fed should have any significance to us today?

Unless we can find some way to defy history and logic, the day will eventually come when our fiat currency will not have any significance.

[snoblind]

  Those that get it, get it.  Those who don't, won't...  It's going to be an interesting next 5-10 years as the "Endgame" plays out.

[PEtrader]

  Those that get it, get it.  Those who don't, won't...  It's going to be an interesting next 5-10 years as the "Endgame" plays out.

Eh endgame is a pretty strong word for growth pains and corrections.  You guys are buying into the hype.  There is always someone predicting "this is the end", but it never is.  Do you guys remember in late 90s early 2000s when we were worried so much about having a surplus?

[hog.goblin]

For the exact same reason that it has for the last several thousand years.

Banksters and governments can't effortlessly mass produce gold.  It takes luck to find it to begin with, then it takes incredible time, effort, and investment to produce it. It's the man hours involved, the time, effort, and cost it takes to produce it that gives gold it's inherent value.  That's why they hate gold and have spent so much time and energy brainwashing our generations into forgetting thousands of years of history and truth, and getting us to trust them to print and create what we need.

Hold a $1 bill next to a $100 bill.  What is the difference besides 2 zeroes?  How many man hours, how much time and effort and cost do you think were involved in producing the $1 bill?  5 cents worth?  10 cents?  Maybe more, maybe less?  Do you think the $100 bill took 100x more time, effort, and cost to produce than the $1 bill?
(Hint: No.  In reality they have the same value.  We just happen to not be living in reality at the moment.  Unless you accept the bankster created fairytale land as reality.)

A year or so ago a surprise audit of the Fed showed that over the preceding 3 or 4 years the banksters had secretly created $16 trillion and passed it out among themselves.  Do you think it would have been remotely possible for them to produce $16 trillion worth of gold to give to themselves?  Even it it was possible, which do you think they would rather do?   Take two seconds to punch in some zeroes on the Fed computer key board, or invest many years and many billion$ in time and effort to produce that much gold?

Over and over and over throughout history governments have debased their currency to steal from the masses.  Every single time it has ended badly for the country and for the people.  When gold and silver were the currencies the gov would make the coins smaller or mix a cheap metal in it to stretch what they could produce.  But the easiest way has always been to just print up colored paper and force the subjects to accept it at gun point as having real value.  It has always failed for the same reason, gov greed pushing it too far.  It's just human nature.

Read about how gold is mined, the difficulty and cost, and how 90% go out of business before producing an ounce.  The fact that it is hard to produce is what gives it value.  Value in man hours of work that can not be effortlessly created with a couple of key strokes.  Why do you think diamonds are so expensive?  Not because they can be created by the ton every day with little or no effort.  According to Aristotle one of the key characteristics of money is inherent value.  How much inherent value is in mass produced colored paper or computer key strokes?

You're asking the wrong question.

Don't ask why gold has any significance today.  Ask why colored pieces of paper that can be produced effortlessly and infinitely by the banksters in the Fed should have any significance to us today?

Unless we can find some way to defy history and logic, the day will eventually come when our fiat currency will not have any significance.

I may have not been very clear, and I'm thinkng way outside the box compared to you, so you completely missed my point.

I understand paper is meaningless.  It's essentially a promise to pay and is only as good as the person guaranteeing it.  I'm not arguing about that.

I'm talking about more than simple supply and demand for gold, I realize it has some extra value because it's a rare and difficult substance.  I understand it can't be created (at this point).

My question is why does gold have any material value at all in the 21st century?  Other than displays of vanity what use does it really have?  More common metals can replace almost any use that it has.

Tell me why I would ever want to buy gold as a useful product?  I believe it's use as jewelry, beauty, and decor is diminishing and will continue to as humanity has greater knowledge.  And it would seem to have less value in this theoretical end of the world scenario.

As far as material things go, if times are good, I want computers, TVs, cars, and a nice home.  If times are bad, I would rather have ammunition, food, shelter.

Gold would only serve as something of possible value (a sort of currency to get something I would rather have).  But again, if I can't eat it, drink it, build a home out of it, or enjoy it's beauty more than most other things then what good is to me?

I guess it's good my wife agrees because she received one gold ring and that's it.

FWIW, diamonds seem to be a much more well rounded substance.

Maybe your only argument is that gold is a better currency because it's a limited substance.  But then we could use tulips, right?

[PEtrader]

Why Gold is an Asset Bubble Ready to Burst


1 Comment
Posted 06 Jul 2012
Category Economy, ETFs, Financial, GLD, Gold, Investing, Market News, Misc. Financial Services, Precious Metals, Sectors, Silver



by Michael Tarsala

Gold is an asset bubble and it's already beginning to burst.

That's the analysis of Mark T. Williams, a risk management expert, faculty member within the economics department at Boston University, and former examiner at the Fed in Boston and San Francisco.

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD) – Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

It's true, the price of gold broke its long-term trendline in March, and a major breakdown is now possible. The chart above is of the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD), which moves very much in tandem with spot gold prices. A break below support around $150 could send it tumbling.

But Williams' analysis has little to do with the chart action.

Here's why he said in the July issue of Financial Advisor magazine that the good-old-days for gold bugs are gone:


"It costs approximately $500 an ounce to mine gold, but currently this metal sells for over three times that cost," he says. "Historically, the mining-to-market cost has been closer to 1.5 times."

His point is that the fat profits are unsustainable in the long-term: It's a signal that gold prices are simply out of whack.

I caught up with him this week and asked him to provide additional support to his thesis, and he made these points:
•Other precious metals including silver and platinum are falling, too.
•Depressed gold returns have pushed investors to look at historically more stable asset classes, including stocks and bonds.
•The Dow has outperformed gold by a 2-to-1 margin so far this year; it's the first time gold has underperformed the Dow in over a decade.

Put it all together, and maybe the "safety" of gold was never all that safe in the first place.

[OldPoop]

If times are bad, I would rather have ammunition, food, shelter.

Sigh.  Let's ignore history.
 
Why learn and plan from what has actually happened over and over throughout history, when you can learn and plan from Hollywood movies and mind numbingly violent computer games?

Yes, that's what we should all do!   Brilliant!

[OldPoop]

Why Gold is an Asset Bubble Ready to Burst


1 Comment
Posted 06 Jul 2012
Category Economy, ETFs, Financial, GLD, Gold, Investing, Market News, Misc. Financial Services, Precious Metals, Sectors, Silver



by Michael Tarsala

Gold is an asset bubble and it's already beginning to burst.

That's the analysis of Mark T. Williams, a risk management expert, faculty member within the economics department at Boston University, and former examiner at the Fed in Boston and San Francisco.

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD) – Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

It's true, the price of gold broke its long-term trendline in March, and a major breakdown is now possible. The chart above is of the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD), which moves very much in tandem with spot gold prices. A break below support around $150 could send it tumbling.

But Williams' analysis has little to do with the chart action.

Here's why he said in the July issue of Financial Advisor magazine that the good-old-days for gold bugs are gone:


"It costs approximately $500 an ounce to mine gold, but currently this metal sells for over three times that cost," he says. "Historically, the mining-to-market cost has been closer to 1.5 times."

His point is that the fat profits are unsustainable in the long-term: It's a signal that gold prices are simply out of whack.

I caught up with him this week and asked him to provide additional support to his thesis, and he made these points:
•Other precious metals including silver and platinum are falling, too.
•Depressed gold returns have pushed investors to look at historically more stable asset classes, including stocks and bonds.
•The Dow has outperformed gold by a 2-to-1 margin so far this year; it's the first time gold has underperformed the Dow in over a decade.

Put it all together, and maybe the "safety" of gold was never all that safe in the first place.

LOL.

No one can say I didn't try. 

I have a clear conscience.

[PEtrader]

Sigh.  Let's ignore history.
 
Why learn and plan from what has actually happened over and over throughout history, when you can learn and plan from Hollywood movies and mind numbingly violent computer games?

Yes, that's what we should all do!   Brilliant!

You do realize that you are torpedoing your own arguement right?

End or arguement, next topic......

[hog.goblin]

Sigh.  Let's ignore history.
 
Why learn and plan from what has actually happened over and over throughout history, when you can learn and plan from Hollywood movies and mind numbingly violent computer games?

Yes, that's what we should all do!   Brilliant!

Sigh, you avoided my question.  I have no desire for gold, good times or bad.

Edit: I'm not trying to be argumentative or convince you of anything.  I simply want a logic explanation of why I want to own something that seems worthless to me (in the context of price and alternative metals).

[snoblind]

Eh endgame is a pretty strong word for growth pains and corrections.  You guys are buying into the hype.  There is always someone predicting "this is the end", but it never is.  Do you guys remember in late 90s early 2000s when we were worried so much about having a surplus?

Notice the quotes and the capital E?  It's a book reference.  I remember the late 90's and early 2000's very well.  And I recall no one worrying about having a surplus.  Of course, anyone paying attention realized there wasn't really a surplus as the total debt kept increasing.  What I do recall is the mantra of the finance folks telling us there was no stock market bubble, it was a "new" economy, the rules have changed, yada, yada...

I also remember the 60's, 70's, & 80's.  So when folks over in politics dismiss even the possibility of riots in streets I just sigh since I've watched them.  And I'm the son of two folks who lived through the depression.  So I dismiss those that say that there is no possibility of bank holidays or currency resets and make fun of those who ask about them because it has happened before.

I'm not buying into anyone hype.  I'm quite capable of studying history and the current situation then making my own conclusions.  Not sure how you define the "end".  Sounds like you are confusing financial collapses and sovereign bankruptcies with end of the world/Armageddon scenarios.  Since we are still here I agree the latter hasn't happened.  But the former has happened many times over the past 800 years.  Perhaps "This Time is Different"  (clue - it's another book title), but I doubt it.   

[PEtrader]

Notice the quotes and the capital E?  It's a book reference.  I remember the late 90's and early 2000's very well.  And I recall no one worrying about having a surplus.  Of course, anyone paying attention realized there wasn't really a surplus as the total debt kept increasing.  What I do recall is the mantra of the finance folks telling us there was no stock market bubble, it was a "new" economy, the rules have changed, yada, yada...

I also remember the 60's, 70's, & 80's.  So when folks over in politics dismiss even the possibility of riots in streets I just sigh since I've watched them.  And I'm the son of two folks who lived through the depression.  So I dismiss those that say that there is no possibility of bank holidays or currency resets and make fun of those who ask about them because it has happened before.

I'm not buying into anyone hype.  I'm quite capable of studying history and the current situation then making my own conclusions.  Not sure how you define the "end".  Sounds like you are confusing financial collapses and sovereign bankruptcies with end of the world/Armageddon scenarios.  Since we are still here I agree the latter hasn't happened.  But the former has happened many times over the past 800 years.  Perhaps "This Time is Different"  (clue - it's another book title), but I doubt it.

Well even if you don't remember it/didn't know about it, it was there.  To sum it up the thought was that because of the surplus that there was real evidence that the federal government was not doing enough to maintain the economy/ that to pay off our debt would have a severe impact downwards. Now whether that is good or not for the economy boils down to whether you are a Keynesian or follow Friedman.  Just goes to show you how quick opinions change, which was the point I was making.

The fact that all those things have happened that you mentioned is evidence to me that we are not facing the downfall of the US, which is what OP essentially is hinting at.  The fact that we are all here talking about this when those things did happen are evidence that the financial meltdown of the US will not take place in our lifetime.  I mean heck man the "Great Recession".  What was great about it?  The only people I really saw get some real damage done to them was home builders who never thought the good days would end and people who bailed out of their accounts.  Other than that it seems the worst have been college kids not getting jobs because corporations are too scared to hire, and those of us already out there having to cut back on our already extremely luxurious lives.   

A question though for you guys that think this is it, and one that no one talks about, has a country ever fallen that at that time had the most dominant military of that time when that country was not involved in a major war.  IE while that country's military was not involved in full scale war did that country disolve?

[kingofdequeen]

LULZ.

these people have taken the "black guy gets elected president" and made white folks go NUTS buying gold coins and ammunition.

"the real money is in sales".

[snoblind]

Well even if you don't remember it/didn't know about it, it was there.  To sum it up the thought was that because of the surplus that there was real evidence that the federal government was not doing enough to maintain the economy/ that to pay off our debt would have a severe impact downwards. Now whether that is good or not for the economy boils down to whether you are a Keynesian or follow Friedman.  Just goes to show you how quick opinions change, which was the point I was making.

The fact that all those things have happened that you mentioned is evidence to me that we are not facing the downfall of the US, which is what OP essentially is hinting at.  The fact that we are all here talking about this when those things did happen are evidence that the financial meltdown of the US will not take place in our lifetime.  I mean heck man the "Great Recession".  What was great about it?  The only people I really saw get some real damage done to them was home builders who never thought the good days would end and people who bailed out of their accounts.  Other than that it seems the worst have been college kids not getting jobs because corporations are too scared to hire, and those of us already out there having to cut back on our already extremely luxurious lives.   

A question though for you guys that think this is it, and one that no one talks about, has a country ever fallen that at that time had the most dominant military of that time when that country was not involved in a major war.  IE while that country's military was not involved in full scale war did that country disolve?

Perhaps, but if I recall Keynes the idea was to run surplus in the good times so that there would a cushion available to deficit spend when necessary.  As for the discussion your referring to that's been an argument for decades.  As for surpluses, look at the data
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm

I may be missing it, but I don't see a decrease in outstanding debt unless one goes back to 50's. 51 to be precise.  The so-called Clinton surplus years were apparently budget games.

Need to crash, but I will look at the rest of your post and discuss tomorrow.

[OldPoop]

You do realize that you are torpedoing your own arguement right?

End or arguement, next topic......

Two completely different things.
I've been through this a while back with HIM.  As I have clearly stated many times (including in this thread) "when it comes to gold" I care about today and the next 1 to 5 years.  I don't care that the stock market beat gold for 50 years or 100 years while gold was handcuffed by the gov at a set price.  I don't care that the DOW that is being manipulated higher temporarily beat gold while it is being artificially held down.  I don't care that 50 years from now or even 10 years from now it could be possible for us to have severe deflation, because if I'm still alive I will probably be out of gold by then and into blue chip dividend paying stocks where the money making will be.  Or maybe rental properties.  Or who knows what?  Opportunities and government oppressions are constantly changing.

It doesn't seem that difficult to understand to me, but obviously I have failed to explain it well.  Gold is for now, a store of value while the banksters and gov destroy our economy like they and many countries have done many other times in history, like 1929.   It is simply a lifeboat to get to the other side of The Greater Depression that's headed our way with hopefully most of my savings intact.  It's simply a store of value until they are finished destroying our currency like governments have done many times throughout history.

What frustrated me with hog.goblin was his statement of not needing gold in a crisis, only guns, food, and shelter.  Right after I had given recent real world examples of Germany, Argentina, and Zimbabwe, and why you need gold more than guns.  The people with gold survived with their savings and some even came out ahead, while those without gold lost their savings.  The countries survived, the people survived, and they did not all kill each other.   They were just a lot poorer afterwards, a lifetime of working and saving gone.  I'm sorry, I don't know how else to explain it.  And then he said "I simply want a logic explanation of why I want to own something that seems worthless to me", when that is all I've been doing for this entire thread.  I got frustrated when I realized that I had been completely wasting my time.  I hate to waste my time.

I am fine with everyone doing what they think is best for them and their families.  But if we follow history, and the stock market tanks and the fiat currency tanks, a lot of people are going to be wiped out, and it doesn't necessarily have to be that way.

I'm done, you can be the winner.


Hog.goblin, I am a big believer in insurance.  That's why I pay for home insurance, even though I don't know anyone that ever had their home burn down.  I have car insurance and health insurance.   I have 3 months food insurance, and I have guns for insurance.  I have stocks for insurance and I also have precious metals for insurance.  Hopefully my family is covered for all potential catastrophes.