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QBs - Single Most Important Stat

Started by Sportster365, January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm

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Sportster365

What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.

Reservoir Hogs

TD/Int Ratio is always the first stat I look at to judge a qb...

 

gawntrail

January 06, 2015, 03:46:49 pm #2 Last Edit: January 06, 2015, 06:16:47 pm by gawntrail
Quote from: Sportster365 on January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm
What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.

Of what you listed - completion%

Even though not a true qb stat, I think 3rd down conversion rate gives a pretty good indicator.

But, truly its not just one stat.

** fixed that.  That was brutal putting it in the quote.

wholehog92

Yards per attempt followed closely by TD/Int for just looking at QB play.  Part of the QB equation is lifting the play of those around him though.  If there is a disparity with the first two and wins/losses, I'm suspicious of coaching, front office management, or on field leadership.
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Quote from: Sportster365 on January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm
What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.
I think QB Rating would be the most comprehensive measure. While I'll admit I don't have the theoretical physics degree to figure out how it's calculated, I've always heard it supposedly the best overall measure of the position's performance.

You're right about the wins/losses observation: using that measure alone certainly doesn't count other TEAM factors. We've all seen QBs who put up ridiculous numbers only to have their team consistently lose by 50-49 or 70-65.

Hogfaniam

Command of the huddle/respect of his peers
"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"

The_Iceman

I like completion % and TD/Int Ratio.

TexHog188

I guess it all depends on what your end game is?  I want my quarterback to win games, thus win/loss; see Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw etc...  I don't really care how.  If he needs to throw it 30 times to win so be it.  If he needs to sustain drives with a scramble so be it.  Tony Romo might be a great example of a guy who puts up all-pro numbers most every year, has as many 4th quarter comebacks as just about anyone; but has been terrible in clutch games in most every season. QB's are measured and compared on their stats, but ultimately on wins and more specifically big wins.
"When you're around people that have been where you're trying to go, they know the answers."  Moses Moody


sickboy

Depends on the QB and the system.

If you've got a gunslinger...

TD/INT and Completion %. Usually a gunslinger is keeping a team competitive if he's keeping his TD's high and ints low and completing a solid percentage of his throws.

If you've got a game manager...

W/L/INT

I don't even care how many TDs he throws. I just want to know how many INTs he's throwing and if we're winning or losing games. It stands to reason if a game manager is keeping his INTS low... you're competitive.

Razorfox

I'd have to go with QB Rating, just because it takes into account numerous statistics that the QB controls.  The problem with the other stats is either 1) they are meaningless by themselves or 2) they are outside the control of the QB. 

Total Passing Yds - meaningless in a vacuum
Passing Ypg - meaningless in a vacuum
TD/INT Ratio - is somewhat useful, but is taken into account with the QB rating as well
QB Rating - my choice
Yds Per Attempt - useless in a vacuum
Completion % - useless in a vacuum
Wins/Losses - QB only plays a role in this

Hogfaniam

Quote from: Razorfox on January 06, 2015, 03:58:53 pm
I'd have to go with QB Rating, just because it takes into account numerous statistics that the QB controls.  The problem with the other stats is either 1) they are meaningless by themselves or 2) they are outside the control of the QB. 

Total Passing Yds - meaningless in a vacuum
Passing Ypg - meaningless in a vacuum
TD/INT Ratio - is somewhat useful, but is taken into account with the QB rating as well
QB Rating - my choice
Yds Per Attempt - useless in a vacuum
Completion % - useless in a vacuum
Wins/Losses - QB only plays a role in this

Does qbr account for dropped passes?  They need an error stat like baseball for drops.
"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"

Youngsta71701

Quote from: Sportster365 on January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm
What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.

QB Rating no doubt. It puts all the QB stats in one except for wins/losses of course. Joe Montana and Troy Aikman never threw for a lot of yards and TD's but their QB Rating was always high. That meant they were efficient.
"The more things change the more they stay the same"

 

TOM "tbw1"

Well see, there's your problem. What you should be thinking is, what would Harry Rex do?

hogfan10

Quote from: sickboy on January 06, 2015, 03:56:51 pm
Depends on the QB and the system.

If you've got a gunslinger...

TD/INT and Completion %. Usually a gunslinger is keeping a team competitive if he's keeping his TD's high and ints low and completing a solid percentage of his throws.

If you've got a game manager...

W/L/INT

I don't even care how many TDs he throws. I just want to know how many INTs he's throwing and if we're winning or losing games. It stands to reason if a game manager is keeping his INTS low... you're competitive.

Great answer, I agree.

Razorfox

Quote from: Hogfaniam on January 06, 2015, 04:03:05 pm
Does qbr account for dropped passes?  They need an error stat like baseball for drops.

These are the categories for QBR:
- Percentage of completions per attempt
- Average yards gained per attempt
- Percentage of touchdown passes per attempt
- Percentage of interceptions per attempt

So, the answer to your question is not directly, but indirectly it would. 

Junkyard Hog


LRrazorback

Almost always, when your yards per pass attempt are greater than the other teams, you win.  So I'll take that.

EastexHawg

QB rating.  All the others are factored into the QB rating formula.  If you throw for a high completion percentage, it's factored in.  If you throw the ball downfield and thus your yards per attempt stat is high, it's factored in.  If you throw for TDs or interceptions...factored in.

Wins and losses is not only the simplistic approach, but it's mostly illogical because a QB can only control his own performance.  He can't control how smart his coach is or how good his defense is.

Bill Montgomery was a better QB than James Street...Street even said he was...but Street won both times they played and got a national championship because his supporting cast was better.  Eddie Phillips even won one version of one, again beating out Montgomery and the Hogs, the year after Street graduated.

Peyton Manning was better than any QB Florida put on the field during his time at Tennessee but he couldn't beat the Gators or win the SEC East. 

Trent Dilfer has a Super Bowl ring.  Dan Marino doesn't.  Maybe that has something to do with the fact that the Ravens may have had the best defense of the last 30 years when they won with Dilfer at QB.  Or maybe we are supposed to believe that the Baltimore offense not scoring a TD in five straight games was part of the plan and proves their quarterback played at a higher and more desirable level than anyone else that year.

See Brad Johnson and Tampa Bay for Exhibit B.

Hogarusa

Only thing that matters in the end is W/L

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Sportster365

I used to put a lot of stock into YDS per game and TD/INT ratio, but the further I looked I found that the completion % seems to be more of a tell all factor.

Whether in the pros or on a college level, the higher the completion % generally the more successful the teams. I've noted stand out QBs who lead the league like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees with stats sheets stacked with multiple INTs, yet they remain very successful at their positions because of such a high completion %.

For the most part if a QB can complete 60% of his passes then the chances of having a successful season is good. Of the eight SEC teams that finished with wins of 8 or more 6 of them had QBs that completed at least 60% of their passes. With the exception being LSU, Jennings at 48% and somehow Mizzou and Matty Mauk at 53%.

Completing 6/10 of everyone of your passes will almost guarantee to keep the chains moving.

Cresthog

Aaron Rodgers and then everyone else.

Fayettechill14

1. Yards per attempt
2. 3rd-down conversion rate (when passing)
3. TD:Int ratio

 

phadedhawg

TD/INT is my fav stat to check when looking up a QB. 

But if I'm familiar with the program/franchise I look for chemistry and whether they do the job the coach asks of them. 

When they walk back to the huddle does the HC grab their ear and let 'em have it or compare notes and a pat on the back. 

I think CBB is happy with BA when I see their chemistry on the sideline.

theFlyingHog

I can't pick one stat.  I can't make it that simple looking at a QB

PORKULATOR

Quote from: Junkyard Hog on January 06, 2015, 04:17:13 pm
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gmarv

qbr followed by td/int ratio.turnovers get more teams beat more than any other thing.

passinghog

In today's game, college or pro, completion % is #1 in my book. If you can't hit 63%+, odds are that you're just not very good.
2. Td/int ratio
3. Yards per attempt

WizardofhOgZ

Quote from: EastexHawg on January 06, 2015, 04:21:05 pm
QB rating.  All the others are factored into the QB rating formula.  If you throw for a high completion percentage, it's factored in.  If you throw the ball downfield and thus your yards per attempt stat is high, it's factored in.  If you throw for TDs or interceptions...factored in.

I thought about this as a teenager in the late 60's and figured out (by doing some correlation analysis) that Yards per attempt was the best single statistic related to passing (QB's) in terms of predicting positive results (wins).  However, as pointed out by Eastex, QB rating factors several different statistics - include YPA - into the formula that yields that number.

aloha_kid

Quote from: Sportster365 on January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm
What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.

Wins.

cypert2

Swinging on the two and the four.

atekido

Quote from: Sportster365 on January 06, 2015, 03:38:24 pm
What would you consider the single most important stat for a QB on any level?

Total Passing Yds
Passing Ypg
TD/INT Ratio
QB Rating
Yds Per Attempt
Completion %
Wins/Losses


Most folks would probably say wins/losses, but imo that wouldn't be a true reflection of how good or bad a QB really plays. I've seen some really good ones on some really bad teams and I've seen some really bad ones on some really good teams and the differences are noticeable. If you feel differently explain.

Yards per attempt.  its the one thing you can't skew as easy as the others.  you can be a running QB and fake being good at all the other stats pretty much but having a good yards per attempt show if you have strength, vision and accuracy,  you cant be a system QB and fake Long passes.  you Have to have arm strength vision and accuracy to have a high yards per attempt. 

daBoar

Winning percentage, but it's not one of the options.

Mike_e

3rd down completion ratio.

Nothing else really matters.
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Sportster365

Wouldn't yds per attempt give more credit to the receiver than the QB? QB's with really good receivers who are able to get yds after the catch help exaggerate a QBs numbers.

With talented receivers a 5yd crossing route, WR screen or quick pass out to the flat can pick up chunks with nifty receivers.

In the SEC B. Sims led all passers in YPA, why? Amari Cooper.

demonHOG1013

How many stars they have coming out of High School

hoghelmet14

His ability to read a defense..... all the other stats will take care of themselves......

Sometimes throwing the ball away... even on third down.... is the best play.

There is a reason Peyton Manning is where he is today.... and where he will be 5 years after he retires!
Proud to be an American!  Proud to be an Arkansas Razorback Fan!

WizardofhOgZ


Talented receivers make the stats of any QB better than they would otherwise have been - not just "YPA".  Think about it.  They will catch more of the passes, all things being equal.  Which means, the QB will have more completed passes (higher %), more yards and more TD's.  Good WR will also turn into DB's when needed, minimizing interceptions.

So, any way you put it, a QB that is blessed to have top quality receivers will "out stat" his equally talented counterpart with lesser receivers.

Quote from: Sportster365 on January 07, 2015, 10:24:58 am
Wouldn't yds per attempt give more credit to the receiver than the QB? QB's with really good receivers who are able to get yds after the catch help exaggerate a QBs numbers.

With talented receivers a 5yd crossing route, WR screen or quick pass out to the flat can pick up chunks with nifty receivers.

In the SEC B. Sims led all passers in YPA, why? Amari Cooper.

Fayettechill14


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1909/1964/1965/1977

gawntrail

Quote from: Fayettechill14 on January 07, 2015, 11:50:13 am
Matt Leinart GOAT

Leinart not transitioning to the NFL game still boggles me.  Maybe a case of the talent around him at SC covering for his deficiencies.  Then when he had to get it done it showed.

thirrdegreetusker

QB value is an intangible. If it were measurable, NFL teams would not waste high draft choices on players who never make it, while passing up FIVE chances to draft Tom Brady, which is what happened in 1999.

Thirty-five years ago, in "The Offensive Side of Lou Holtz" book (which was basically a coaching manual), he said simply something like "You must have a winner at QB. May not be the fastest runner, or best passer. But needs to be the guy who gives you the best chance to win."

thirrdegreetusker

Quote from: gawntrail on January 07, 2015, 01:55:01 pm
Leinart not transitioning to the NFL game still boggles me.  Maybe a case of the talent around him at SC covering for his deficiencies.  Then when he had to get it done it showed.



Heard he permanently damaged his throwing arm playing "travel" baseball growing up in California. Good enough to be a very good college QB but, as it turns out, not NFL-caliber.

PonderinHog

Where's the "good hander-offer" option ???  What is wrong with you people ???

Deep Shoat

Quote from: thirrdegreetusker on January 07, 2015, 01:58:27 pm
QB value is an intangible. If it were measurable, NFL teams would not waste high draft choices on players who never make it, while passing up FIVE chances to draft Tom Brady, which is what happened in 1999.

Thirty-five years ago, in "The Offensive Side of Lou Holtz" book (which was basically a coaching manual), he said simply something like "You must have a winner at QB. May not be the fastest runner, or best passer. But needs to be the guy who gives you the best chance to win."
This.

Good QB's find a way to put their team in positions to win.  They do it in a plethora of ways. 
All Gas, No Brakes!

jeramyaupton

Completion percentage for me. Shows how well the QB understand the coverages he's facing, how well he understands the talents of his teammates, how accuarte he is, and how strong his football IQ is. It is to a degree out of his hands but if he understands what's going on around him and has the mechanics, the completions will come.

gawntrail

Quote from: thirrdegreetusker on January 07, 2015, 02:01:28 pm


Heard he permanently damaged his throwing arm playing "travel" baseball growing up in California. Good enough to be a very good college QB but, as it turns out, not NFL-caliber.

Yeah.  Never had a gun.  Had great touch.  Being/getting injured never helps either. 

SooiecidetillNuttgone

Quote from: Fayettevillian on January 06, 2015, 03:50:10 pm
W/L

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3.  Exhale.
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lefty08

Quote from: gawntrail on January 06, 2015, 03:46:49 pm
Of what you listed - completion%

Even though not a true qb stat, I think 3rd down conversion rate gives a pretty good indicator.

But, truly its not just one stat.

** fixed that.  That was brutal putting it in the quote.

Completion % is too easy to skew imo. Yards per attempt can be used with it to make it clearer though
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