Stats that I found while assembling my latest article

[Biggus Piggus]

Since 1948, the Razorbacks have averaged 17 points per game in offensive touchdown scoring, about three TDs a game.  I excluded extra points.  I went ahead and changed this to exclude overtimes, too, as they didn't play them in the past.

To me this is a measure of offensive potency.  Here are averages by coach:

Broyles 19
Holtz 18
Hatfield 19
Crowe 13
Ford 13
Nutt 20

No matter what we want to think, or want the team to be, Arkansas's offenses have been best under Nutt.  It's inescapable.  The defenses?  They've been among the worst.  If he does not turn things around, Nutt will be remembered as an offensive coach who neglected defense.

TD scoring allowed per game

Broyles 9
Holtz 10
Hatfield 10
Crowe 17
Ford 15
Nutt 14 (excluding this year, which likely will spike the average)

Consider this, too.  Most of the past seasons where Arkansas defenses failed, the offense was too weak to keep the D off the field.  Crowe's 1990 season was the lone exception.  The performance of defenses under Nutt has been quite poor when one considers the big scoring numbers and time-of-possession advantage his teams have maintained.

Yards per play allowed

Broyles 3.9
Holtz 4.3
Hatfield 4.7
Crowe 5.5
Ford 5.0
Nutt 5.0

[TulsaHawg]

Since 1948, the Razorbacks have averaged 17 points per game in offensive touchdown scoring, about three TDs a game. I excluded extra points.

To me this is a measure of offensive potency. Here are averages by coach:

Broyles 19
Holtz 18
Hatfield 19
Crowe 13
Ford 13
Nutt 21

No matter what we want to think, or want the team to be, Arkansas's offenses have been best under Nutt. It's inescapable. The defenses? They've been among the worst. If he does not turn things around, Nutt will be remembered as an offensive coach who neglected defense.

TD scoring allowed per game

Broyles 9
Holtz 10
Hatfield 10
Crowe 17
Ford 15
Nutt 15 (excluding this year, which likely will spike the average)

Consider this, too. Most of the past seasons where Arkansas defenses failed, the offense was too weak to keep the D off the field. Crowe's 1990 season was the lone exception. The performance of defenses under Nutt has been quite poor when one considers the big scoring numbers and time-of-possession advantage his teams have maintained.

Yards per play allowed

Broyles 3.9
Holtz 4.3
Hatfield 4.7
Crowe 5.5
Ford 5.0
Nutt 5.0

Good points Biggus.

Regardless of what people say about HDN and his playcalling, when one looks at the offensive numbers rationally, his teams have done well on that side of the ball.  There are things I would like to see him change, but that would be the case with whoever was calling the plays.

I have pointed out elsewhere that people here in Oklahoma are complaining about Chuck Long, and his unimaginative playcalling. He is and OC, so simply having an OC for the sake of having one is not necessarily the answer.   I think having an OC might free HDN so he could better mangage the entire game.

Most would agree that the Offense and the playcalling were not our big problems last year.  We put up enough points in most of the games last year to have won more. The D let us down.

Actually, 24 points should have been enough to beat Vandy, especially having an 11 point lead in the 4th.  So the case could be made that again the D let us down there.

It is encouraging to see improvement on the defensive side of the ball.  We saw improvement in the Bama game, and even more in the ULM game.  It is understandable that it is taking time for the players to adjust and adapt to Reggie's D. 

I anticipate a good game Saturday, especially if the D continues the improvement.

[silvertip]

Thanks for the research, Biggus.

I am not content to just compare Nutt's offense vs earlier coaches based on points scored. It is my impression that scoring throughout the college game has increased considerably the past few decades. How did our scoring average vs the national average back then, compare to the same stats now? Are you sure we're even keeping up?

What I wonder is has Hawgs average increase in scoring kept track with the general increase of scoring in college football? I'm not convinced that 2 or 3 point diff between Nutt and Broyles, Hatfield. & Holtz is that meaningful.

Look at the points allowed among those coaches. So Nutt is averaging 2 or 3 points more on offense. But our opponents are averaging 5 or 6 points more now than back then. Seems to me our scoring output is not keeping up with the rest of the college world's increase. Maybe some of our falling behind is due to our poorer defenses lately. But I'm not convinced that Nutt is a better than offensive coach than Broyles, Hatfied or Holtz. The game has changed & I don't think Nutt is keeping up.

[hawgjowls]

what is the production of offensive td w/o overtime games?
what is the production of offensive td in the first 3 quarters? 

[Feralhog]

My complaint with Nutt has nothing to do with his offense.  It is the same mistakes we repeat year after year. 

Why is it the middle of the season before we finally get the best players on the field?

Why is our punting and kcking game ALAWAYS a weakness?

We know we are never gonna be loaded with4 and 5 star talent, it's never been the case at Arkansas.  The secret to our past success is taking 3 star kids and coaching them up.  Amazingly under this coach, we do the opposite.  Not only are we failing to coach up the 3 star kids, we can't coach up the 4 and 5 star players.

Here's a few off the top of my head that exhibited tremendous potential as true freshmen, and by the time they left, showed virtually no improvement.

Josh Melton
Cedric Cobbs
Boo Williams
Mark Pierce
Brandon Holmes

[SonOfMud]

To be fair, you should also remove the years Clint Stoerner was here (since he changed a number of scoring plays) and the Matt Jones years, since that wasn't playcalling it was MJ handing off, or MJ taking off after Nutt called a one man route.   

[silvertip]

How about our last 3 holders of the freshman receiving record---George Wilson, Richard Smith, and Marcus Monk. As Smith's & Wilson's carers progressed, the Nutt-lovers progressively criticized them as "too slow" & "not REAL SEC receivers." Now, we're hearing that Monk can't stretch the field either.

What does it say about our coaching---Nutt & Shibest---when we're constantly looking to freshmen to replace last year's freshmen. The latest receiver we "really" need is now Coleman.

[HogInMemphis]

what is the production of offensive td w/o overtime games?
what is the production of offensive td in the first 3 quarters? 

Now there is some thoughtful insight. Take out the 7 OT game vs. Ole Miss, the 6 OT game vs. Tenn and the 7 OT game vs KY and I bet it substantially negatively affects Nutt's scoring stats.

BP? Can you make this adjustment?

[Biggus Piggus]

HiM, you know I have made that adjustment many times on this board.  I can't do the first three quarters thing.  But here's offensive TD scoring per game for the Houston Nutt years:

1998 24.0
1999 20.2
2000 17.5
2001 14.7
2002 15.9
2003 22.2
2004 22.4

1998-2004 19.5, still above his predecessors

Defense:

1998 10.0
1999 14.2
2000 15.8
2001 14.2
2002 10.7
2003 12.0
2004 18.0

1998-2004 13.5, better than Ford (for the moment) and Crowe, not as good as the rest

[Swino]

Do you put an asterick besides the Matt Jones years?  Talk about skewing the data.

[artyhog]

Was Matt out there by himself.  All those games were a team effort.  Even now the twin monsters would not get their yards with the rest of the team.  No asterick needed.  Team results are team results.  Individual records speak for themselves.

[Biggus Piggus]

I hope the Matt Mustain years asterisk the hell out of the numbers.

[Swino]

Was Matt out there by himself. All those games were a team effort. Even now the twin monsters would not get their yards with the rest of the team. No asterick needed. Team results are team results. Individual records speak for themselves.

Arty, are you bashing Matt?  Matt Jones was one hell of an athlete and the amount of busted plays that he turned into pure gold is astounding.   

[PigKahuna]

Why would you asterisk the Matt Jones numbers?   That's silly.  Then let's asterisk the Quinn Grovey and Joe Ferguson numbers while we're at it.

[mikeirwin]

I would guess that most teams score more points these days.
The whole metality is different. You have to entertain fans.
The old days off winning 3-0 with the crowd walking away happy has long sense vanished.
I don't think 20 points per game is as big a deal today as it would have been 20 or 30 years ago.
Just my opinion.

[MajorHog]

NuttHuggers take note!

what has been posted here are REAL FACTS.  Biggus Piggus has given us all something to consider that may explain why the Hogs are not winning.  This is very helpful information and points to deficiencies in certain areas.

however, I too would like to know about "point inflation."  offenses today are a lot more wide open then they were under Frank Broyles.  I fear that if Broyles' numbers are "adjusted" we'll find that Nutt's offense has been more inept than we realized.

[Swino]

Why would you asterisk the Matt Jones numbers? That's silly. Then let's asterisk the Quinn Grovey and Joe Ferguson numbers while we're at it.

Your right, he was just your average QB.

[hogfan11]

I would guess that most teams score more points these days.
The whole metality is different. You have to entertain fans.
The old days off winning 3-0 with the crowd walking away happy has long sense vanished.
I don't think 20 points per game is as big a deal today as it would have been 20 or 30 years ago.
Just my opinion.

very true

[Razorback Jedi]

Then why is it so frustrating to watch a Houston Nutt offense? Are these stats a product of the college football times that we live in?

--edit--

Just read Mikes comment above, and I agree with what he says.

[Oklahawg]

Modern offenses throw more and modern rules and rule interpretation/enforcement privileges passing offenses. Passing offenses slow down the clock with every incompletion. That makes HDN's offensive numbers that much more impressive.

Ask Jerry R. about Melton. Pierce was a head case, the second coming of Shannon Wright. Cobbs had two decent seasons--while we'd like more can you really expect more than that (yes, if he's the marquee recruit, but let's open up the expectations). Cobbs two bad years were the product of injuries, some of which were related to Don Decker's work in the weightroom. Holmes was mismanaged because he was such a great person--a great athlete who could have played in the NFL if he'd been allowed to be a FB or LB for 4 years. Maybe...

[Oklahawg]

You have to take these stats as a broad brushstroke. You can't go tinkering with who the QB was, etc., or you'll start subjectively tinkering yourself into having meaningless numbers. Part of each coach's numbers is related to how well they recruited to the needs of the offense.

[hogken]

It didnt take long to try to break down the facts. Nutts offense is statistically better! Lets put it under a microscope! and disect it! so we can bitch some more!

[Rhyno_Hawg]

Everyone who knows anything about Football, knows Defense is the key.

The defense has gotten bad since JT left. I really think we've fixed that problem. Wommack didn't ruin it over night, and Reggie can't fix it that fast either. We are already making strides.

The offense has been much better since 2002, but this year we have QB problems. We saw the same thing back when Clint left. But back then we had NOBODY. Now we have some guys, but they are young.

The problem this year has been the bone head calls. He should know the defense isn't there yet, so he can't afford to let Vandy Hang around, or not even attempt to keep bama honest with a 20 yard post. 

I can live with us getting beat when we play our best game, that's going to happen in this conference.

I can't live with us giving games away. We have already done that twice this year.

[hogken]

let put astericks by players names? gimme a break! Lets put a red underline under Razorback stadium games cause they're hotdogs taste better and it made the players feel better and had nothing to do with HDN!

[Biggus Piggus]

I would guess that most teams score more points these days.
The whole metality is different. You have to entertain fans.
The old days off winning 3-0 with the crowd walking away happy has long sense vanished.
I don't think 20 points per game is as big a deal today as it would have been 20 or 30 years ago.
Just my opinion.

You are completely correct, Mike.  I didn't bother to get into it, hoping somebody would pick up the challenge.

Nutt's offenses on average have scored basically about as much as Broyles's and Hatfield's did, despite how much passing has increased scoring and yards per play across college football over the past 40 years.

I do not have data in hand that would prove scoring has increased on average across college football.  I bet average yardage has.  Scoring, it's not as clear.

I'll give you an example.  Alabama's average scoring per game by decade:

1960s 23 ppg
1970s 31 ppg
1980s 27 ppg
1990s 25 ppg
2000s 25 ppg

Really great football teams sometimes score a lot regardless of how often they throw the football.  The decline in Bama's average scoring is associated with declining W-L record.

[Biggus Piggus]

Oh yeah, one more thing.  Broyles's and Hatfield's teams averaged a LOT more field goal scoring that Nutt's have.

[Kevin]

Great stats. i have just one comment. i wonder what they would look like just in the sec. out the cupcakes. look at this year for example.

missouri state 49
ulm  44


alabama 13
vandy 24
throw in usc 17
i think you would find this to be the pattern.

[PintailKiller]

Since 1948, the Razorbacks have averaged 17 points per game in offensive touchdown scoring, about three TDs a game.  I excluded extra points. I went ahead and changed this to exclude overtimes, too, as they didn't play them in the past.

To me this is a measure of offensive potency.  Here are averages by coach:

Broyles 19
Holtz 18
Hatfield 19
Crowe 13
Ford 13
Nutt 20

No matter what we want to think, or want the team to be, Arkansas's offenses have been best under Nutt.  It's inescapable.  The defenses?  They've been among the worst.  If he does not turn things around, Nutt will be remembered as an offensive coach who neglected defense.

TD scoring allowed per game

Broyles 9
Holtz 10
Hatfield 10
Crowe 17
Ford 15
Nutt 14 (excluding this year, which likely will spike the average)

Consider this, too.  Most of the past seasons where Arkansas defenses failed, the offense was too weak to keep the D off the field.  Crowe's 1990 season was the lone exception.  The performance of defenses under Nutt has been quite poor when one considers the big scoring numbers and time-of-possession advantage his teams have maintained.

Yards per play allowed

Broyles 3.9
Holtz 4.3
Hatfield 4.7
Crowe 5.5
Ford 5.0
Nutt 5.0

Biggus -
Can you change the formula to conference only games?  I think this would change the numbers.
Thanks

[Rocky&Boarwinkle]

Biggus, can you get me a coffee?  I take it with sugar and creamer. 

Thanks for the stat crunching.  At least it gives us something else to jabber about.  I find stats fascinating, just in their own right.

[Niels Boar]

I do not have data in hand that would prove scoring has increased on average across college football.  I bet average yardage has.  Scoring, it's not as clear.

Using that metric, most Pac 10 coaches are probably the best offensive coach in their respective school's history.  The exception might be Stanford.  They realized early that their best bet to even the playing field was to throw the ball.  Remember when USC was student-body left and right.   Pac 10 games are now routinely in the 30s and 40s. 

It would be interesting to see scoring normalized to possessions.  As Okie pointed out, games are a lot longer with the incomplete passes.  Long pass plays also lead to quicker scores.  USC had 28 points in about 14 microseconds against us.   I assume possessions are up.

[Bacons Rebellion]

Oh yeah, one more thing. Broyles's and Hatfield's teams averaged a LOT more field goal scoring that Nutt's have.

Of course they did. They could use a 2" tee and the goalposts were 6' wider back then. And when you missed it was a touchback so you could go ahead and try without it being like a turnover if you missed.

[Bacons Rebellion]

Biggus, I assume you're doing this from season stats, so you can't do a median points per game?

[PIGINAPOKE]

I have seen win/lose & tie brackets..But never a STAT bracket.. I guess stats win games Look at Dan Fouts, Great stats......... less wins