Michigan State in Final Four may remind people (fans, recruits)

[Biggus Piggus]

why Arkansas hired Stan Heath.  He, with Tom Crean, was among Tom Izzo's top assistants during the rise of Spartans basketball in the 1990s.  Michigan State plays a brand of basketball that combines offensive execution, strong low post play, rebounding and sound, gimmick-free defense.  The Spartans do not play Roy Williams-style sprintball, but they are modern enough to be able to recruit good talent.  They score well, winning with points routinely in the 80s, without high back-and-forth possessions per game.  MSU played no faster than the Razorbacks did this season, but they were more efficient scoring from everywhere--inside, outside and the line.

Some interesting points about the Spartans this season:

* They score more in transition (off rebounds and steals) than any previous Izzo team.
* Five of their top seven players are guards ranging from 6-0 to 6-5.
* Drew Neitzel brings the ball up, but he (or frequent sub Chris Hill) shares point duties with Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager in a classic three-guard motion offense with a restrained assortment of situational set plays.
* Center Paul Davis leads the team in rebounding at 7.8, but everybody but Neitzel chips in.
* MSU has outstanding numbers on both offensive and defensive boards.
* They came into the tourney as one of the best FT shooting teams in many years, with several players over 80%.
* Their brand of defense is better at denying shots than at forcing a low shooting %.
* Scoring burden is distributed evenly among six players, all roughly equal in points per minute.
* Lead players are 6-6 combo forward Alan Anderson (14/6), 6-5 wing guard Maurice Ager (14/4), and 6-11 Davis (12/8).

Statistical differences between MSU and Arkansas:

* Playing at the same pace, the Spartans get many more easy shots.
* MSU shoots less often from inside but makes a much higher % (57% vs. 49%).
* 65% of the Spartans' field goals come off assists, compared with Arkansas's 58%.
* Michigan State scores more at the line on fewer attempts, due to its 79% team accuracy (66% for Arkansas).
* MSU shoots more often and scores more points from 3-pt range (at a lower %, but the great rebounding compensates).

The statistical differences are dramatic when looking at conference stats only.  One cannot overstate how poorly the Razorbacks fared in defensive measures, defensive rebounding, the free throw differential, ability to disrupt opponents' offensive sets, all done at a Wisconsin-like pace that did nothing to slow opponents' scoring.  SEC opponents scored so easily in the paint against the Hogs, and got to the line so often, the headwinds were insurmountable.

Let's compare.  Top eight in minutes:

MSU // Arkansas
F1 Anderson 27 // sometimes SG1, sometimes SF1 Brewer 32
C1 Davis 27 // sometimes PG1, sometimes SG2 Ferguson 27
SG1 Ager 26 // C1 Townes 24
WG1 Brown 25 // sometimes SF1, sometimes SF2 Famutimi 23
PG1 Hill 24 (despite not starting) // sometimes SG2, sometimes SG3 Modica 21
WG/SG2 Torbert 23 // PF1 Thomas 18
PG2 Nietzel 16 // PG2 Jefferson 17
F2 Trannon 11 // C2 Hill 16

Several things stand out: 1) juniors and seniors dominate MSU's top minutes; 2) Arkansas gave (had to give) lots of minutes to terribly unproductive players; 3) roles of Hogs' top players were never set (which greatly hampered the defensive concept); 4) the Hogs do not pass well as a team, with a couple of individuals dominating the assists while others rarely help out; 5) while the Hogs were finding PT for two centers and two PFs, MSU sometimes had none on the floor, and still they way outrebounded us.

Below, players are listed in order of primary role, to compare productivity.

Minutes played per point scored:

PF1 Anderson 2.0 // Thomas 3.3 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 2.3 // Famutimi 2.5 <=advantage MSU
C1 Davis 2.2 // Townes 2.3 <=advantage MSU
SG1 Ager 1.9 // Brewer 2.0 <=advantage MSU
PG1 Hill 2.7 // Ferguson 3.1 <=advantage MSU
SG2 Torbert 2.4 // Modica 2.2 <=advantage Arkansas
PG2 Nietzel 4.7 // Jefferson 4.1 <=advantage Arkansas
PF2 Trannon 5.2 // Sullivan 6.1 <=advantage MSU

Minutes played per free throw attempt:

PF1 Anderson 6.6 // Thomas 7.7 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 8.7 // Famutimi 13.4 <=advantage MSU
C1 Davis 7.5 // Townes 8.3 <=advantage MSU
SG1 Ager 6.7 // Brewer 5.8 <=advantage Arkansas
PG1 Hill 18.1 // Ferguson 21.5 <=advantage MSU
SG2 Torbert 8.9 // Modica 6.9 <=advantage Arkansas
PG2 Nietzel 27.7 // Jefferson 9.2 <=advantage Arkansas
PF2 Trannon 11.4 // Sullivan 17.6 <=advantage MSU

Minutes played per offensive rebound:

PF1 Anderson 14.3 // Thomas 17.1 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 21.6 // Famutimi 18.4 <=advantage Arkansas
C1 Davis 10.0 // Townes 12.8 <=advantage MSU
SG1 Ager 23.3 // Brewer 18.4 <=advantage Arkansas
PG1 Hill 70.6 // Ferguson 40.9 <=advantage Arkansas
SG2 Torbert 28.8 // Modica 18.1 <=advantage Arkansas
PG2 Nietzel 105.2 // Jefferson 35.4 <=advantage Arkansas
PF2 Trannon 10.2 // Sullivan 12.1 <=advantage MSU

We missed more shots, so the above is deceiving.

Minutes played per defensive rebound:

PF1 Anderson 7.1 // Thomas 11.3 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 12.1 // Famutimi 8.0 <=advantage Arkansas
C1 Davis 5.2 // Townes 8.8 <=advantage MSU
SG1 Ager 9.4 // Brewer 10.3 <=advantage MSU
PG1 Hill 16.2 // Ferguson 13.6 <=advantage Arkansas
SG2 Torbert 10.7 // Modica 12.6 <=advantage MSU
PG2 Nietzel 32.9 // Jefferson 10.5 <=advantage Arkansas
PF2 Trannon 5.1 // Sullivan 7.1 <=advantage MSU

Not sure that having our point guards on the defensive boards is good for transition defense.  Oh, I'm sure it isn't.

Minutes played per assist:

PF1 Anderson 15.3 // Thomas 35.3 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 14.3 // Famutimi 23.3 <=advantage MSU
C1 Davis 16.9 // Townes 51.1 <=advantage MSU
SG1 Ager 14.2 // Brewer 9.5 <=advantage Arkansas
PG1 Hill 5.6 // Ferguson 6.4 <=advantage MSU
SG2 Torbert 16.3 // Modica 13.4 <=advantage Arkansas
PG2 Nietzel 5.6 // Jefferson 7.9 <=advantage MSU
PF2 Trannon 28.6 // Sullivan 22.3 <=advantage Arkansas

Minutes played per turnover:

PF1 Anderson 16.2 // Thomas 12.6 <=advantage MSU
WG/SF1 Brown 14.3 // Famutimi 21.8 <=advantage Arkansas
C1 Davis 13.6 // Townes 19.3 <=advantage Arkansas
SG1 Ager 14.0 // Brewer 15.7 <=advantage Arkansas
PG1 Hill 16.5 // Ferguson 15.1 <=advantage MSU
SG2 Torbert 19.4 // Modica 11.1 <=advantage MSU
PG2 Nietzel 11.4 // Jefferson 9.2 <=advantage MSU
PF2 Trannon 15.1 // Sullivan 10.1 <=advantage MSU

Jefferson, Sullivan, Modica and Thomas all had unacceptably high turnovers.

Minutes played per foul:

PF1 Anderson 9.9 // Thomas 8.5
WG/SF1 Brown 16.0 // Famutimi 13.2
C1 Davis 10.9 // Townes 9.9
SG1 Ager 16.1 // Brewer 15.9
PG1 Hill 11.4 // Ferguson 17.0
SG2 Torbert 11.4 // Modica 13.7
PG2 Nietzel 10.7 // Jefferson 8.5
PF2 Trannon 6.4 // Sullivan 7.2

The advantage/disadvantage varies by position.  Sullivan, Jefferson, Thomas and Townes probably had too many unproductive fouls.

The formula for the fix, in my view, has to include the following:

* Define each player's role early on, which might do more for the team defensive concept than any other single step.
* Teach Townes how to pass the basketball, board on defense, and play better man defense.
* Get more production out of the four position (McGowan, Hunter).
* Develop more guard depth to allow for useful flexibility, rather than the useless flexibility of testing players in misfit roles.
* Get the power forward and wing player to the line more often (McGowan is a good FT shooter; Hunter is not).
* Get more assists and better A/TO out of the backup point guard (McCurdy or another signee).
* Send the big guards to the boards, let the point guards get into transition.
* Put a real slasher at the three position, whether it's a reawakened Famutimi or Modica.
* Shoot better at the line.

Roster breakdown, MSU this year vs. Arkansas next year:

Wing Brown, 6-4 soph; Torbert, 6-4 sr
PF Anderson, 6-6 sr; Trannon, 6-6 jr; Rowley, 6-8 soph
C Davis, 6-11 jr; Naymick, 6-10 soph
SG Ager, 6-5 jr; Torbert; Bograkos, 6-2 sr
PG Hill, 6-3 sr; Nietzel, 6-0 fr

I put players where they belong skillwise not necessarily where Heath will play them:

Wing Brewer, 6-7 jr; Famutimi, 6-5 jr; Modica, 6-4 sr; Cranford, 6-7 soph
PF McGowan, 6-8 fr; Hunter, 6-10 soph; Thomas, 6-7 soph; Sullivan, 6-8 sr
C Townes, 6-10 soph; Hill, 6-11 soph
SG Jefferson, 6-4 sr
PG Ferguson, 6-1 sr; McCurdy, 6-1 fr

The way this roster lays out, the Razorbacks have faux depth, too many redundant players, no usable two guard, too much dead bench.  Why it took till February for Coach Heath to begin recruiting guards again is incomprehensible.

[Biggus Piggus]

Just looking at numbers and productivity, one thinks Izzo would have used the Razorbacks this way:

F Brewer
WG Famutimi
SG Modica
PG Ferguson
C Townes

[Biggus Piggus]

One more thing.

It's conceivable that Arkansas could have, in Brewer and Townes, players good enough at F and C to match the productivity of MSU's top two.  Otherwise, it doesn't seem that Heath can afford to concentrate playing time at the top.  He doesn't have studs at any other position.  What he has are variously talented players who can be effective if their roles are clear.

This season you saw what happens when you take a roster of athletes, shorten the bench, slow the pace and try to execute.  If you play 10-11 per game, by definition you're going to have a hard time running anything complex.  Plus if you're playing 55-60 possessions, means a lot fewer chances for 11 men than 7.