Portis and Qualls

[MB Hog]

You know when you hear about people who get in these athletes ears and give them speculative information as to why they should go ahead and go pro now?  Sounds like about half the people on the message boards.

I'll continue to cheer for Qualls and Portis if they go pro early, but I'm not qualified to tell them they will not benefit from staying in college.  I'm not qualified to tell them they'd be better off going pro now. 

I think they can both improve even more with another year of college, but I can't tell them what their ceiling is.  I think they would both enjoy being stars for the Hogs another year... more than they would fighting for playing time in the NBA, but I don't know that.  Maybe having the money today is more important than the enjoyment of March Madness, being superstars on campus, and just soaking all of that in.

I know that both guys grew up with little money and this is a chance to finally get a big payday... I do understand that the money is hard to turn down.  They can also get their degree later... but getting a degree vs. being a college student is not the same thing.  If I could have had a million-dollar job coming out of high school, but also had that same million-dollar job coming out of college, I would definitely choose to go to college first and then get the paycheck later.  You can get a degree anytime in life, but you have an age-limited window when you can enjoy your college years the way they are meant to be enjoyed.

Either way, I would rather let them sort this out with their family, friends, and coaches rather than having so many "agents" on this board tell them there is nothing for them to gain by coming back to play for the Razorbacks.

[HogMantheIntruder]

If it makes you feel any better, I have it on good authority that neither are taking the opinion of Hogville posters into account when making their decisions.

[gmarv]

If it makes you feel any better, I have it on good authority that neither are taking the opinion of Hogville posters into account when making their decisions.

dude you just ruined my day I was for sure they checked hogville first.

[MB Hog]

If it makes you feel any better, I have it on good authority that neither are taking the opinion of Hogville posters into account when making their decisions.

Yeah, but Hogville gives a good replication of some of the stuff I figure they are hearing directly.

[Chic-Hog-Oh]

Yeah, but Hogville gives a good replication of some of the stuff I figure they are hearing directly.

They have medication for whatever is affecting your brain synapses right now.

[MountieDawg]

There decision is easy, play for Take care of MA's family or take care of their family. To everyone begging them to come back, if they do they need to make sure they play only in front of packed houses at BWA.

If they give up millions, you can give up a few hundred bucks for season tickets.

[intelligence]

There decision is easy, play for Take care of MA's family or take care of their family. To everyone begging them to come back, if they do they need to make sure they play only in front of packed houses at BWA.

If they give up millions, you can give up a few hundred bucks for season tickets.

latest rumblings around the campfire say that Bobby is coming back. haven't heard about Qualls, but i can pretty much guarantee you Portis is returning

[MB Hog]

There decision is easy, play for Take care of MA's family or take care of their family. To everyone begging them to come back, if they do they need to make sure they play only in front of packed houses at BWA.

If they give up millions, you can give up a few hundred bucks for season tickets.

Not giving up millions... just deferring them for several reasons:
* Opportunity to be part of a special team
* Time to continue being a kid and a college student
* Chance to get better and improve draft position
* Get a degree

There are no guarantees of success in the NBA, but the more prepared they are when they get there, the better their opportunity to stay.

For those of you practically begging them to leave... WHY?

[MountieDawg]

Not begging them to leave, I did see the video of how Portis grew up. People asking him to stay yo get the hogs back to glory is selfish. He needs to do what he thinks he needs to do and everyone support it. If he does come back he deserves for fans that beg him to come back to show up and not complain about gas and ticket prices. His sacrifice should be reciprocated.

[MB Hog]

Not begging them to leave, I did see the video of how Portis grew up. People asking him to stay yo get the hogs back to glory is selfish. He needs to do what he thinks he needs to do and everyone support it. If he does come back he deserves for fans that beg him to come back to show up and not complain about gas and ticket prices. His sacrifice should be reciprocated.

1) I understand about his past and acknowledged the draw of the money for both Portis and Qualls, but they know their current situation better then we do.
2) I'm not begging him to stay - just noting that there are reasons to stay other than the money.
3) If both come back, the team will be highly ranked and good enough that the crowds will also come back.
4) If either or both players come back, it will not be because they are going to sacrifice a year for the team, it will be because they want to come back for their own variety of reasons.

[latrops]

Yeah, but Hogville gives a good replication of some of the stuff I figure they are hearing directly.

From coaches and informed "advisors"?  Yeah, family and friends might be encouraging this or that based on their own wishful thinking, like fans on a message board might...but I presume the advice they are most strongly considering is coming from more informed sources that have been through this process before.

[psooie]

There are good reasons for portis to stay but it is a risk. I'm not sure what type of insurance he can get but he needs to get some if he comes back. Its not unreasonable to believe portis will have a 15 years career in the NBA and make more money they he will ever need. If that happens, staying 1-2 more years in college is the right move.

[Atlhogfan1]

There are good reasons for portis to stay but it is a risk. I'm not sure what type of insurance he can get but he needs to get some if he comes back. Its not unreasonable to believe portis will have a 15 years career in the NBA and make more money they he will ever need. If that happens, staying 1-2 more years in college is the right move.

Why?  (not saying it isn't)

What are the reasons for him to stay? 

[mbgrulz]

There decision is easy, play for Take care of MA's family or take care of their family. To everyone begging them to come back, if they do they need to make sure they play only in front of packed houses at BWA.

If they give up millions, you can give up a few hundred bucks for season tickets.

Qualls isn't giving up millions. There aren't millions out there for him...yet. I think he could improve, lead us deep into the dance during a high profile year and get into the late 1st round.

Portis stands to gain millions by staying and moving up the draft boards. Using this season's number, if he got drafted 20th this year, he'd make 3.8 million over the life of his 1st contract. If he comes back and moves up to #10, he'd make 6.3 million over the life of his 1st contract. There is a HUGE difference in late 1st round and lottery. I think there will be less traffic in front of him next year in terms of draftable bigs.

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

Qualls isn't giving up millions. There aren't millions out there for him...yet. I think he could improve, lead us deep into the dance during a high profile year and get into the late 1st round.

Portis stands to gain millions by staying and moving up the draft boards. Using this season's number, if he got drafted 20th this year, he'd make 3.8 million over the life of his 1st contract. If he comes back and moves up to #10, he'd make 6.3 million over the life of his 1st contract.

First let me say, I hope he comes back. Now to give you a bigger reason to leave now.

Yes, IF he Is drafted 20th this year and IF he moved up to a lottery pick next season he would make a little more money his first contract, BUT it would put him one year further away from a contract that will really "pay the bills".

[Atlhogfan1]

What can Portis do to his game or body that will make him more appealing and send him much higher up the 2016 draft than he would have been in 2015? 

[mbgrulz]

First let me say, I hope he comes back. Now to give you a bigger reason to leave now.

Yes, IF he Is drafted 20th this year and IF he moved up to a lottery pick next season he would make a little more money his first contract, BUT it would put him one year further away from a contract that will really "pay the bills".

You call 3 million "a little more" money?

I guess it all depends on what you think of BP's pro potential. I think he's a career backup post player (which is a very good thing). I see a good chance of him playing for close to the league minimum as a veteran, which is WAY more than I'll ever make!

Go around the league, and look at contracts...Veterans like Portis are generally signed to deals pretty similar to what a high draft pick rookie makes. Unless you think he's going to be a big time NBA player, and get one of those big time contracts, he'd be very smart to stay and try to improve his draft stock and make as much $$$ as he can on that 1st contract.

[mbgrulz]

What can Portis do to his game or body that will make him more appealing and send him much higher up the 2016 draft than he would have been in 2015? 

I think he can work on developing his game similar to Kaminski.

He could become a reliable pick and pop/spot up 3 point shooter. I also think he could work on taking his man off the dribble from the perimeter better.

I think he has a lot of improving to do on his game, as all college soph's do, but I also think there will be less high profile big men in front of him in the 2016 draft.

[WhatsitHOGabout]

I think that if Bobby goes, Mike will follow.  I expect both of them to return and they may have great seasons or they may blow out a knee.  It is a gamble either way.

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

You call 3 million "a little more" money?

I guess it all depends on what you think of BP's pro potential. I think he's a career backup post player (which is a very good thing). I see a good chance of him playing for close to the league minimum as a veteran, which is WAY more than I'll ever make!

Go around the league, and look at contracts...Veterans like Portis are generally signed to deals pretty similar to what a high draft pick rookie makes. Unless you think he's going to be a big time NBA player, and get one of those big time contracts, he'd be very smart to stay and try to improve his draft stock and make as much $$$ as he can on that 1st contract.

I think he could possibly become an above average player with the one on one work he will receive once he gets to the league, if not, then you scenario is probably right.

[Atlhogfan1]

I think he can work on developing his game similar to Kaminski.

He could become a reliable pick and pop/spot up 3 point shooter. I also think he could work on taking his man off the dribble from the perimeter better.

I think he has a lot of improving to do on his game, as all college soph's do, but I also think there will be less high profile big men in front of him in the 2016 draft.

So extend his game away from the basket to be a lesser version of Robert Horry?

Is he a big man in the sense he is a post player?  He seems more comfortable away from the post on both ends unless he trying to provide help defense by coming off his man for block attempts or going to the basket for rebounds.  Which way does he take his game if he returns?  Towards the post or away from it?  If he tries to add more back to the basket post game, does he try to get stronger considering he isn't an explosive athlete now?  Do we allow him to and does he choose to stay in the post more next season to defend? 

(I need to add a disclaimer before a stalker comes by.  I'm just posing questions for discussion and not saying he should stay or go.  I think Bobby's NBA game isn't in the post in the NBA but away from the basket facing up and stretching the defense than trying to play traditional PF's on either end.  Not sure how returning will change the projection.)

[PonderinHog]

So extend his game away from the basket to be a lesser version of Robert Horry?

Is he a big man in the sense he is a post player?  He seems more comfortable away from the post on both ends unless he trying to provide help defense by coming off his man for block attempts or going to the basket for rebounds.  Which way does he take his game if he returns?  Towards the post or away from it?  If he tries to add more back to the basket post game, does he try to get stronger considering he isn't an explosive athlete now?  Do we allow him to and does he choose to stay in the post more next season to defend? 

(I need to add a disclaimer before a stalker comes by.  I'm just posing questions for discussion and not saying he should stay or go.  I think Bobby's NBA game isn't in the post in the NBA but away from the basket facing up and stretching the defense than trying to play traditional PF's on either end.  Not sure how returning will change the projection.)

What he is and what we need him to be are two different things/roles.

[Atlhogfan1]

What he is and what we need him to be are two different things/roles.

College game helping the Hogs vs NBA

Does what he needs to do for the Hogs and what we ask him to do conflict with his development and what he needs to show NBA scouts if he returns?  (just posing the question)

[PonderinHog]

College game helping the Hogs vs NBA

Does what he needs to do for the Hogs and what we ask him to do conflict with his development and what he needs to show NBA scouts if he returns?  (just posing the question)

Yes, to a degree, but improvement is improvement.  Where he chooses to improve his game is his decision.  We will have a new practice facility, though...   

[Atlhogfan1]

Yes, to a degree, but improvement is improvement.  Where he chooses to improve his game is his decision.  We will have a new practice facility, though...   

The practice facility should be on the list of considerations as he will be able to work there against Kingsley and Thompson.  One of the negatives of college basketball though is the limited practice time he gets with the staff.  Would be interesting to see where he invests his summer time and with whom. 

[mbgrulz]

So extend his game away from the basket to be a lesser version of Robert Horry?

Is he a big man in the sense he is a post player?  He seems more comfortable away from the post on both ends unless he trying to provide help defense by coming off his man for block attempts or going to the basket for rebounds.  Which way does he take his game if he returns?  Towards the post or away from it?  If he tries to add more back to the basket post game, does he try to get stronger considering he isn't an explosive athlete now?  Do we allow him to and does he choose to stay in the post more next season to defend? 

(I need to add a disclaimer before a stalker comes by.  I'm just posing questions for discussion and not saying he should stay or go.  I think Bobby's NBA game isn't in the post in the NBA but away from the basket facing up and stretching the defense than trying to play traditional PF's on either end.  Not sure how returning will change the projection.)

I think Bobby will make his money on his versatility and his ability to stretch the floor at 6'11".

I think it's a bad idea to say definitely won't post up in the NBA, or that if he gets good at one thing, he has to regress at another. I think he's primarily a face up pick and pop guy, but he will need to be adequate at posting up.

I think he needs to come back...Get stronger...Continue to develop his jumper...Get better vs. double teams...work on attacking off the dribble...And last but not least, let several high profile bigs get out of his way in this year's draft.

[Atlhogfan1]

I think Bobby will make his money on his versatility and his ability to stretch the floor at 6'11".

I think it's a bad idea to say definitely won't post up in the NBA, or that if he gets good at one thing, he has to regress at another. I think he's primarily a face up pick and pop guy, but he will need to be adequate at posting up.

I think he needs to come back...Get stronger...Continue to develop his jumper...Get better vs. double teams...work on attacking off the dribble...And last but not least, let several high profile bigs get out of his way in this year's draft.

I think your last thought could be a consideration.  We know drafts flow based on needs and teams' styles and where they are choosing.  The "right" team for Bobby or the one that wants him may or may not be choosing significantly higher next season.  No way of knowing since he can't be drafted this year and in 2016. 

As far as his game, again I don't know that he will be able to add to it enough to make that much of a difference.  His shooting range may get extended even more or his passing or attacking double teams.  I would think the NBA scouts have already projected areas he could improve upon if he left college after this year and begin to work with professional coaches, trainers and against professional players without the practice restrictions.  They have gauged his ceiling.  He could run the risk of returning and suggesting his ceiling is lower than they thought through his play. 

There is something about Bobby that seems like he isn't ready for the real world/"man's game".  Part of it may be the way he physically wore down this season.  Now he did play a lot of minutes for our system(so did Qualls) and carried the team through the regular season.  His minutes per game in the NBA would less as a rookie.  Perhaps it is his persona as well.  And if he isn't ready mentally and is unsure about making a professional commitment, he should return. 

[Athog]

Not giving up millions... just deferring them for several reasons:
* Opportunity to be part of a special team
* Time to continue being a kid and a college student
* Chance to get better and improve draft position
* Get a degree

There are no guarantees of success in the NBA, but the more prepared they are when they get there, the better their opportunity to stay.

There is no guarantee on anything you said either! They could blow out a knee and be done!! With that said I do hope they make the choice to come back.

For those of you practically begging them to leave... WHY?

[GoHogs1091]

One risk that will occur if Portis stays is that he will be providing more of an opportunity for the NBA people "to pick apart his game" by just the fact of him playing more.  As of right now, they only have a limited amount to go on, and that can actually be better for the player.

I will go ahead and say that if Portis returns, there is no guarantee that he repeats as the SEC Player of the Year.  This season in the SEC, there wasn't what could be called a top notch absolute game changer in the Conference, i.e., a Jalil Okafor or a Frank Kaminsky, but there are some incoming players, Ben Simmons and Malik Newman (if as expected Newman decides to go to the SEC) who have the type of a talent that is on another level compared to the talent in the SEC this season.

[Hawg Red]

One risk that will occur if Portis stays is that he will be providing more of an opportunity for the NBA people "to pick apart his game" by just the fact of him playing more.  As of right now, they only have a limited amount to go on, and that can actually be better for the player.

I will go ahead and say that if Portis returns, there is no guarantee that he repeats as the SEC Player of the Year.  This season in the SEC, there wasn't what could be called a top notch absolute game changer in the Conference, i.e., a Jalil Okafor or a Frank Kaminsky, but there are some incoming players, Ben Simmons and Malik Newman (if as expected Newman decides to go to the SEC) who have the type of a talent that is on another level compared to the talent in the SEC this season.

Very good post and salient points.

[mbgrulz]

One risk that will occur if Portis stays is that he will be providing more of an opportunity for the NBA people "to pick apart his game" by just the fact of him playing more.  As of right now, they only have a limited amount to go on, and that can actually be better for the player.

I will go ahead and say that if Portis returns, there is no guarantee that he repeats as the SEC Player of the Year.  This season in the SEC, there wasn't what could be called a top notch absolute game changer in the Conference, i.e., a Jalil Okafor or a Frank Kaminsky, but there are some incoming players, Ben Simmons and Malik Newman (if as expected Newman decides to go to the SEC) who have the type of a talent that is on another level compared to the talent in the SEC this season.

Everything you say is possible...But it is also possible that he comes back and is a man on a mission and wins back to back SEC POY's.

[Atlhogfan1]

NBA doesn't care about SEC POY awards. 

Portis seems to care about winning a second. 

This seems to be a big part of "The Decision". 

[Hog Fan from Camden]

IMHO Portis seems to care more about winning a NC than winning the SEC POY!  That I think is driving his "Decision" more than anything!

[TrueBlue]

Qualls needs to talk with Scotty Thurman about leaving early.

[Hawg Red]

Qualls needs to talk with Scotty Thurman about leaving early.

Indeed.

Qualls has much to gain from another year of college ball. That isn't always the case for some college players, but it is for him. He improves his ball-handling and he's a 1st round pick. It's that simple. He can shoot, he's as athletic as they come, he's hungry, he plays hard, he's tough, and he can make big plays in big moments. All he's missing is the ball-handling, and that's a very big deal at his position (2-guard in the pros).

[GoHogs1091]

NBA doesn't care about SEC POY awards. 

Portis seems to care about winning a second. 

This seems to be a big part of "The Decision". 

On the face of it, the NBA may not care a whole lot about Player of the Year Awards, but if Portis doesn't repeat as the SEC Player of the Year, it will be because of the following 2 aspects that will absolutely have an effect on his draft position in 2016.

Portis' game regressed (got worse) and that is why he did not repeat as SEC POY.

or

Portis' game stayed the same as it was this season (didn't improve any) while he faced better competition in the 2015-2016 SEC, and one of that better competition won the SEC POY.

The above is a regression (game got worse), or a non-improvement while playing against better competition, and the NBA doesn't want to see a regression, or a non-improvement, especially when that non-improvement occurs while playing against better competition.

[bphi11ips]

College game helping the Hogs vs NBA

Does what he needs to do for the Hogs and what we ask him to do conflict with his development and what he needs to show NBA scouts if he returns?  (just posing the question)

Good question.  If he is like Corliss he will do what he needs to do to help the team.  No one had a better drop step in college than Corliss Williamson, maybe ever.  His low post play is why we have a NC.  Corliss didn't have a reliable baseline jumper until he was an NBA small forward.

Bobby needs to develop his overall game, including in the post.  He will improve his mid to long range jumper, but he doesn't shoot well enough now to travel on it alone in the NBA. He's good now.  Good is the enemy of great.  If he's great after next year he should leave.

[HSVhogfan2]

NBA doesn't care about SEC POY awards. 

Portis seems to care about winning a second. 

This seems to be a big part of "The Decision".

The reason, IMO, It would be a mistake for Portis to come back, is that anything short of POY and All american honors would be perceived as a step back by many. There is more room for his stock to go down, at this point than up. Of course, my opinion and a buck will get you a coke. The only opinion that matters is the one of Portis and his people.

[MB Hog]

Indeed.

Qualls has much to gain from another year of college ball. That isn't always the case for some college players, but it is for him. He improves his ball-handling and he's a 1st round pick. It's that simple. He can shoot, he's as athletic as they come, he's hungry, he plays hard, he's tough, and he can make big plays in big moments. All he's missing is the ball-handling, and that's a very big deal at his position (2-guard in the pros).

Qualls last 3 games of the season were his best games as a Hog.  The biggest difference, that started with Kentucky, was he started finishing his drives in traffic consistently.  Until then, he seemed to go inside looking for the foul instead of looking to finish.  If he comes back next year and picks up where he left off, Qualls might also get consideration for SEC POY and will get a much longer look from the NBA.

He also has to get more consistent with the outside shot, but figuring out how to use his length and athleticism to finish drives in the half court offense is huge!

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

Leading Arkansas to the final 4 would be better than the SEC p.o.y. award. And Kentucky's Townes is the best big man in college with the best chance of making it big in the NBA. He plays so physical in college that it costs him fouls, it will not be that way in the league.

[MB Hog]

The reason, IMO, It would be a mistake for Portis to come back, is that anything short of POY and All american honors would be perceived as a step back by many. There is more room for his stock to go down, at this point than up. Of course, my opinion and a buck will get you a coke. The only opinion that matters is the one of Portis and his people.

Not picking our your post, in particular, but I've seen several similar comments about Portis not coming back because he might not do as well... might regress... and thus fall in the draft.  While it is possible this could happen, it is very unlikely he will regress given his work ethic and his drive to improve as shown between his freshman and sophomore years.

But even more importantly, Portis is too confident in his abilities to not expect himself to improve.  He will not fear that he will regress.  In his mind (IMO), he is going to improve every time he steps out on the court.  Regression is not an option, so he will not decide to go pro out of fear that he will go backwards next year.

[thirrdegreetusker]

Why?  (not saying it isn't)

What are the reasons for him to stay?

I read an article recently that said that if Portis is picked as projected (16 to 23), he would make a little over a million a year. If he stays and moves up to top 10 in 2016, he would make 3 million a year.

So, if he leaves now, he will, by August of 2018, have made about four million bucks. If he stays and moves up, he will, by August of 2018, have made about six million bucks.

[thirrdegreetusker]

The reason, IMO, It would be a mistake for Portis to come back, is that anything short of POY and All american honors would be perceived as a step back by many. There is more room for his stock to go down, at this point than up. Of course, my opinion and a buck will get you a coke. The only opinion that matters is the one of Portis and his people.

But it may be a simple as "Even if he does not improve, would he go higher in the draft next year, because of who else is in the draft, or not?"

If I am ALMOST a Michael Jordan-type player, I would not want to be in the same draft as MJ. I go next year.

[HSVhogfan2]

I read an article recently that said that if Portis is picked as projected (16 to 23), he would make a little over a million a year. If he stays and moves up to top 10 in 2016, he would make 3 million a year.

So, if he leaves now, he will, by August of 2018, have made about four million bucks. If he stays and moves up, he will, by August of 2018, have made about six million bucks.

The money in the NBA is made in your second contract. If he leaves, he will be one year closer to the "real" money.

[latrops]

On the face of it, the NBA may not care a whole lot about Player of the Year Awards, but if Portis doesn't repeat as the SEC Player of the Year, it will be because of the following 2 aspects that will absolutely have an effect on his draft position in 2016.

Portis' game regressed (got worse) and that is why he did not repeat as SEC POY.

or

Portis' game stayed the same as it was this season (didn't improve any) while he faced better competition in the 2015-2016 SEC, and one of that better competition won the SEC POY.

The above is a regression (game got worse), or a non-improvement while playing against better competition, and the NBA doesn't want to see a regression, or a non-improvement, especially when that non-improvement occurs while playing against better competition.

Or 3...Portis is better in 2015/2016 than he was in 2014/2015....but someone else on some other team has an even better year.  Portis can be better and/or improve his draft stock next year without winning SEC POY again.

[HSVhogfan2]

Not picking our your post, in particular, but I've seen several similar comments about Portis not coming back because he might not do as well... might regress... and thus fall in the draft.  While it is possible this could happen, it is very unlikely he will regress given his work ethic and his drive to improve as shown between his freshman and sophomore years.

But even more importantly, Portis is too confident in his abilities to not expect himself to improve.  He will not fear that he will regress.  In his mind (IMO), he is going to improve every time he steps out on the court.  Regression is not an option, so he will not decide to go pro out of fear that he will go backwards next year.

I don't think Portis regresses. The NBA is such, that the later you stay in college, there is a perception that you have certain  flaws in your game. I'm not saying it's right, just the way it is. The people that are advising him will tell him this.

I have heard since the week before the SEC tourny, from folks that should know, that he is staying. I just have a hard time believing he will when he looks at all of his options.

[HotlantaHog]

I think there is a risk-reward element to all this. There is a risk you go lower than you expect in the draft and an upside risk that you go higher. The estimates of where you go in the draft don't always turn out to be accurate. Some players think they will easily make the NBA and end up in Europe. You probably hedge your downside risk by staying in college a year longer.

[Hawg Red]

Qualls has much to gain from another year of college ball. That isn't always the case for some college players, but it is for him. He improves his ball-handling and he's a 1st round pick. It's that simple. He can shoot, he's as athletic as they come, he's hungry, he plays hard, he's tough, and he can make big plays in big moments. All he's missing is the ball-handling, and that's a very big deal at his position (2-guard in the pros).

Case in point:

Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress  18 minutes ago

Junior D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera leaving Georgetown for the NBA Draft. Fringe prospect. Likely would have stayed on fringe in a year regardless

Jonathan Givony ‏@DraftExpress  19 minutes ago

D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera turns 23 later this year. 6-3 SG with average athleticism. Don't think he would have grown or became more athletic.

[MB Hog]

I think there is a risk-reward element to all this. There is a risk you go lower than you expect in the draft and an upside risk that you go higher. The estimates of where you go in the draft don't always turn out to be accurate. Some players think they will easily make the NBA and end up in Europe. You probably hedge your downside risk by staying in college a year longer.

Even still, I reiterate my point that the decision is not necessarily all about money. He may really want to be part of a special Razorback team like Corliss was.  He may really like college life and getting to be a student and a kid.

As I mentioned in my OP, if I could have had a $1 million job coming out of high school, but had that same $1 million job waiting for me coming out of college, I would have waited on that payday because I wouldn't have wanted to miss out on the experience of being a college student.

[latrops]

The money in the NBA is made in your second contract. If he leaves, he will be one year closer to the "real" money.

But does the "real" money go away?  What does it really matter whether a player gets a big raise at 24 rather than 25?  Is he guaranteed to have a better career and make more money by leaving now as opposed to next year?

I've expected all along that Portis would go to the NBA this offseason.  I don't fault him if that is what he chooses to do.  However, the idea that it would be a huge financial mistake for him to return isn't a given based on current draft projections.  If he is unable to raise his status above that of being picked in the 15 to 20 range this year or next, then he is anything but guaranteed a long NBA career in which he commands lucrative long term contracts.